It's an interesting question. Now that it appears that liberal Democrats are voting for the Senate health care reform bill, with the Reconciliation fix, is this vindication for Rahm, and more generally, proof that liberal threats have no teeth?
Ben Smith argues the following:
If the bill passes with unified, if grumbly, support on the left, it would seem to vindicate the White House's fundamental approach, which was to take the left for granted as much as possible and focus on courting marginal members of the Senate. The strategy has turned Rahm Emanuel's name into a curse word among some on the left, raised a lot of money for groups like the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, and produced a real sense of resurgent, independent energy among organized progressives.
Chris Bowers disagrees with Ben:
That statement is only supportable if you fail to remember what the actual health reform debate was like two months ago. In the wake of the Massachusetts special election, Rahm Emanuel wanted to scrap even the Senate health reform bill and pass something smaller.
Instead of scrapping the Senate health care bill and passing something stripped down, Congress is moving to pass the Senate health reform bill with improvements through the reconciliation process. Which is what almost everyone except Rahm Emanuel wanted.
It beats me how someone can have the exact opposite of his recommended path forward come to pass, and still be vindicated. Emanuel wanted to water down the Senate bill further, but instead it will be getting stronger through the reconciliation process as progressives were demanding. Yeah, Emanuel really paved the way forward after the Massachusetts debacle.
I argued months ago that if Democrats simply embrace the Senate bill, which was the result of a lot of compromises right out of the gate (and for no reason) by the President, then we would simply be reinforcing bad behavior in our leaders. They would think that their promises don't mean anything, and that our threats to hold them accountable have no teeth. So there is a real danger in Democrats supporting a health care bill that is much less than it could have been had we had leadership on both sides of Pennsylvania Avenue.
Having said that, the bill will help make things better. It will insure 30m Americans (and help them pay for it if they need the assistance), and it will eliminate (so we are told) pre-existing conditions and other insurance company abuses. If all that happens, if the exchanges truly make health insurance more affordable while providing increased coverage, then this legislation will have been worth it, compromises and all.
I still worry, tremendously, as to what benefits we'll really see. And I worry that the President, and far too many of our representatives in Congress, as of yet have little understanding of how we got in this mess in the first place. The fact that some Democrats are talking about Obama's biggest mistake is having done "too much" for the left only shows how screwed up the thinking, and debate, is in this town, at least in some circles.
So, yes, the bill passes and it is true, the left will yet again be shown to have few teeth. But then again, no one can say with a straight face that the last year was a model for success. I doubt the White House wants many more successes like this.
And come November, the Democrats are still in serious danger of seeing what teeth the left has - teeth that at this point feel little motivation to do much more than stay home.
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