Virginia (VA) Poll * September 15, 2011 * Perry Blossoms As Bachmann Wil - Quinnipiac University

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September 15, 2011 - Perry Blossoms As Bachmann Wilts In Virginia GOP Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Romney, Perry Both Neck And Neck With Obama

Word format Texas Gov. Rick Perry leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney as the presidential choice of Virginia Republicans 25 - 19 percent, with U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann at 5 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Perry tops Romney 43 - 36 percent in a two-man faceoff, but both run neck and neck against President Barack Obama.
Voters in Virginia, a key state in President Obama's 2008 winning coalition, disapprove 54 - 40 percent of the job he is doing, down from a 48 - 48 percent split in a June 30 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Obama does not deserve four more years, voters say 51 - 41 percent.
In Virginia's U.S. Senate race, Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George Allen, both former governors, remain in a statistical dead heat more than 13 months before the voting.
No other GOP White House aspirant breaks into double-digits among Virginia Republicans and GOP-leaning independent voters. Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul gets 8 percent, with former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin at 7 percent, businessman Herman Cain at 6 percent, Bachmann at 5 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 4 percent, former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum at 2 percent and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman at 1 percent.
There is a sizable gender gap in the Perry-Romney two-man race. Perry leads among men 49 - 33 percent, but trails by a narrow 40 - 37 percent among women. Perry also laps Romney 51 - 29 percent among white evangelical Christians, a key part of the GOP coalition. Among military households the two are in a statistical tie tipping to Perry 40 - 38 percent.
"Rick Perry's campaign sees carrying the South in the nomination race as critical and the data from the Capital of the Confederacy gives him reason to be optimistic," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Interesting is the size of the gender gap within the Republican primary that seems to be developing," Brown added.
"And while this is our first look at the GOP presidential race in Virginia, U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann's 5-percent showing could be a real body blow to her White House hopes."
In possible 2012 matchups, Obama has 44 percent to Perry's 42 percent, while Romney gets 44 percent to Obama's 42 percent, all too close to call. Obama does much better against two other Republicans, besting Bachmann 48 - 37 percent and Palin 50 - 35 percent.
"At this point Romney and Perry both are in a horse race against President Barack Obama, challenging Romney's 'electability' argument," said Brown. "The big difference is among independent voters, where Romney holds a solid 44 - 35 percent lead, and Perry is in a 40 - 40 percent dead heat with the president."
Obama's job approval is plummeting among independent voters, who disapprove 62 - 29 percent, compared to a 54 - 41 percent disapproval June 30. Republicans disapprove 87 - 11 percent while Democrats approve 83 - 13 percent, down from 92 - 5 percent in June. Men disapprove 61 - 36 percent, as women disapprove 49 - 43 percent. White voters disapprove 67 - 28 percent, while black voters approve 83 - 11 percent.
In the state's open U.S. Senate race, Allen gets 45 percent to Kaine's 44 percent, statistically unchanged from June when it was Kaine 43 percent to Allen's 42 percent. Republicans go 87 - 8 percent for Allen, while Kaine leads 89 - 8 percent among Democrats. Kaine gets 42 percent of independent voters to Allen's 40 percent. Men back Allen 51 - 41 percent as women back Kaine 47 - 39 percent. White voters support Allen 54 - 38 percent, as black voters support Kaine 73 - 17 percent.
Kaine's support wanes and Allen's increases the higher voters are on the age scale, while Kaine leads among those with college degrees 50 - 41 percent, but trails Allen among those without degrees 47 - 41 percent.
From September 7 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,368 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Republican primary includes 591 voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
1. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Rick Perry, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, Herman Cain, and Thaddeus McCotter for whom would you vote?
REPUBLICANS............................... Tot Men Wom Perry 25% 31% 19% Palin 7 8 6 Gingrich 4 2 7 Romney 19 19 20 Bachmann 5 3 8 Santorum 2 2 1 Paul 8 12 3 Huntsman 1 1 2 Cain 6 4 7 McCotter - - 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 1 DK/NA 20 14 26 White AREA........................ BrnAgn Mltry East/ West/ Evngl HsHlds North SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah Perry 28% 24% 22% 19% 26% 33% Palin 10 10 3 12 6 9 Gingrich 3 1 5 4 5 3 Romney 14 19 25 15 20 14 Bachmann 6 8 5 5 6 2 Santorum 4 2 1 2 2 2 Paul 7 7 10 9 5 9 Huntsman - 1 2 - 1 2 Cain 5 8 10 4 4 6 McCotter - - 1 - 1 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 2 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 3 2 2 2 DK/NA 21 15 12 26 22 18
2. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) Suppose the primary came down to a choice between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote?
REPUBLICANS............................... Tot Men Wom Perry 43% 49% 37% Romney 36 33 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 2 DK/NA 16 13 21 White AREA........................ BrnAgn Mltry East/ West/ Evngl HsHlds North SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah Perry 51% 40% 38% 43% 45% 48% Romney 29 38 44 31 36 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 4 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 5 3 2 2 4 DK/NA 16 15 14 20 17 15
3. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Rick Perry the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 44% 8% 92% 40% 42% 46% 33% 90% Perry 42 88 3 40 44 41 55 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 5 4 1 3 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 1 4 3 3 2 - DK/NA 8 3 5 11 7 9 7 6 White AREA........................ BrnAgn Mltry East/ West/ Evngl HsHlds North SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah Obama 18% 39% 51% 49% 42% 36% Perry 72 47 34 37 48 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2 4 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 4 3 2 DK/NA 6 10 10 6 6 11 AGE IN YRS....... COLL DEGREE POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ No Yes Lib Mod Con Obama 51% 43% 41% 41% 51% 82% 57% 13% Perry 28 47 49 44 40 9 29 75 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 5 2 1 3 2 1 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 3 3 2 2 2 4 DK/NA 11 6 6 9 6 6 9 6
4. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Michele Bachmann the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 48% 11% 94% 45% 46% 49% 38% 89% Bachmann 37 78 2 33 39 35 47 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 - 5 5 2 4 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 5 1 7 4 4 4 - DK/NA 8 4 3 11 6 10 7 6 White AREA........................ BrnAgn Mltry East/ West/ Evngl HsHlds North SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah Obama 23% 40% 57% 51% 44% 39% Bachmann 62 43 28 33 43 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 4 5 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 6 2 4 4 DK/NA 7 9 6 8 6 13 AGE IN YRS....... COLL DEGREE POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ No Yes Lib Mod Con Obama 55% 47% 43% 44% 54% 85% 64% 13% Bachmann 26 41 43 39 33 8 21 71 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 5 2 3 3 3 2 4 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 5 4 4 1 5 5 DK/NA 12 6 6 9 5 4 7 8
5. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Mitt Romney the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 42% 7% 90% 35% 40% 44% 30% 91% Romney 44 87 4 44 47 42 57 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 5 4 1 3 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 - 3 2 2 2 - DK/NA 9 3 6 13 7 10 9 3 White AREA........................ BrnAgn Mltry East/ West/ Evngl HsHlds North SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah Obama 17% 36% 46% 48% 42% 32% Romney 70 49 38 35 50 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2 7 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 1 2 2 DK/NA 8 10 11 9 5 13 AGE IN YRS....... COLL DEGREE POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ No Yes Lib Mod Con Obama 51% 40% 37% 40% 47% 82% 51% 13% Romney 34 48 50 46 42 9 35 75 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 2 2 3 2 1 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 3 DK/NA 10 7 9 10 6 7 9 7
6. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Sarah Palin the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 50% 11% 96% 50% 47% 53% 40% 92% Palin 35 77 1 30 38 33 46 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 - 5 5 1 3 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 6 1 8 4 6 6 - DK/NA 6 4 1 7 5 6 5 4 White AREA........................ BrnAgn Mltry East/ West/ Evngl HsHlds North SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah Obama 25% 45% 61% 50% 47% 42% Palin 64 40 26 32 39 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 4 3 6 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 7 6 6 5 5 DK/NA 4 5 3 7 6 7 AGE IN YRS....... COLL DEGREE POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ No Yes Lib Mod Con Obama 60% 47% 45% 46% 57% 87% 65% 16% Palin 23 39 43 39 30 7 20 68 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 5 2 2 3 3 1 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 5 6 5 5 2 6 6 DK/NA 8 6 4 6 5 2 5 7
7. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Tim Kaine the Democrat and George Allen the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Kaine 44% 8% 89% 42% 41% 47% 38% 73% Allen 45 87 8 40 51 39 54 17 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 - - DK/NA(VOL) 9 4 3 14 6 13 7 9 White AREA........................ BrnAgn Mltry East/ West/ Evngl HsHlds North SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah Kaine 25% 38% 48% 43% 42% 45% Allen 65 53 39 43 49 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 - DK/NA(VOL) 9 9 11 10 8 9 AGE IN YRS....... COLL DEGREE POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ No Yes Lib Mod Con Kaine 47% 45% 41% 41% 50% 78% 55% 16% Allen 35 47 52 47 41 15 33 75 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 DK/NA(VOL) 16 7 6 10 8 6 9 9
TREND: If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Tim Kaine the Democrat and George Allen the Republican for whom would you vote?
Sep 15 Jun 30 2011 2011 Kaine 44 43 Allen 45 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 DK/NA(VOL) 9 11
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 40% 11% 83% 29% 36% 43% 28% 83% Disapprove 54 87 13 62 61 49 67 11 DK/NA 6 2 3 9 3 9 5 7 White AREA........................ BrnAgn Mltry East/ West/ Evngl HsHlds North SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah Approve 17% 34% 40% 49% 38% 33% Disapprove 80 58 52 46 57 61 DK/NA 3 8 8 5 5 6 AGE IN YRS....... COLL DEGREE POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ No Yes Lib Mod Con Approve 46% 39% 35% 38% 41% 75% 48% 14% Disapprove 45 56 61 55 53 20 46 82 DK/NA 9 5 4 6 5 4 6 4
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
Sep 15 Jun 30 2011 2011 Approve 40 48 Disapprove 54 48 DK/NA 6 4
15. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/Deserves 41% 9% 85% 34% 38% 44% 29% 88% No/Does not 51 88 8 57 56 47 63 10 DK/NA 8 3 7 9 6 9 7 2 White AREA........................ BrnAgn Mltry East/ West/ Evngl HsHlds North SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah Yes/Deserves 18% 38% 41% 49% 41% 33% No/Does not 76 56 47 46 53 57 DK/NA 6 6 11 5 6 10 AGE IN YRS....... COLL DEGREE POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ No Yes Lib Mod Con Yes/Deserves 46% 40% 38% 40% 43% 75% 50% 14% No/Does not 40 55 57 53 48 16 42 81 DK/NA 14 5 5 7 9 9 8 5
TREND: Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Sep 15 Jun 30 2011 2011 Yes/Deserves 41 47 No/Does not 51 47 DK/NA 8 6
16. Regardless of how you feel about Barack Obama's policies, would you say you like or don't like Barack Obama as a person?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Like 70% 47% 94% 73% 70% 71% 66% 91% Don't Like 15 32 - 13 16 14 19 2 DK/NA 14 21 5 14 14 15 15 7 White AREA........................ BrnAgn Mltry East/ West/ Evngl HsHlds North SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah Like 59% 69% 73% 72% 72% 61% Don't Like 24 17 16 16 13 18 DK/NA 17 14 10 12 15 21 AGE IN YRS....... COLL DEGREE POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ No Yes Lib Mod Con Like 77% 70% 67% 69% 74% 92% 81% 49% Don't Like 6 18 19 16 15 2 8 30 DK/NA 17 12 13 16 12 5 11 21
TREND: Regardless of how you feel about Barack Obama's policies, would you say you like or don't like Barack Obama as a person?
Sep 15 Jun 30 2011 2011 Like 70 74 Don't Like 15 14 DK/NA 14 12
17. And regardless of how you feel about Barack Obama as a person, would you say you like or don't like most of Barack Obama's policies?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Like 41% 8% 84% 37% 37% 45% 31% 82% Don't Like 52 88 9 56 57 47 63 12 DK/NA 7 3 7 7 6 9 7 7 White AREA........................ BrnAgn Mltry East/ West/ Evngl HsHlds North SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah Like 20% 38% 43% 46% 40% 35% Don't Like 77 55 48 47 55 55 DK/NA 3 7 9 8 5 10 AGE IN YRS....... COLL DEGREE POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ No Yes Lib Mod Con Like 49% 39% 37% 39% 45% 76% 51% 14% Don't Like 43 55 56 54 48 18 41 84 DK/NA 8 6 7 7 7 6 9 3
TREND: And regardless of how you feel about Barack Obama as a person, would you say you like or don't like most of Barack Obama's policies?
Sep 15 Jun 30 2011 2011 Like 41 47 Don't Like 52 48 DK/NA 7 6
29. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Right thing 37% 56% 26% 32% 42% 32% 42% 19% Shld not be involved 54 35 65 62 51 57 50 71 DK/NA 9 9 9 6 6 11 8 10 White AREA........................ BrnAgn Mltry East/ West/ Evngl HsHlds North SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah Right thing 41% 42% 41% 36% 33% 40% Shld not be involved 51 49 52 54 56 53 DK/NA 8 8 7 10 10 7 AGE IN YRS....... COLL DEGREE POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ No Yes Lib Mod Con Right thing 39% 39% 35% 36% 40% 21% 35% 50% Shld not be involved 54 54 54 55 53 71 58 43 DK/NA 7 7 10 9 7 9 7 7
TREND: Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?
Sep 15 Jun 30 2011 2011 Right thing 37 38 Shld not be involved 54 55 DK/NA 9 7
30. Do you think Congress should try to repeal the new health care law, or should they let it stand?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Repeal it 51% 83% 16% 52% 57% 45% 59% 21% Let it stand 38 8 75 37 37 40 32 69 DK/NA 11 9 9 12 6 15 9 9 White AREA........................ BrnAgn Mltry East/ West/ Evngl HsHlds North SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah Repeal it 71% 55% 41% 47% 54% 62% Let it stand 17 37 49 42 36 25 DK/NA 12 8 10 11 10 13 AGE IN YRS....... COLL DEGREE POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ No Yes Lib Mod Con Repeal it 46% 54% 53% 55% 44% 15% 42% 80% Let it stand 41 38 36 33 48 75 48 12 DK/NA 13 9 11 12 8 11 10 8
TREND: Do you think Congress should try to repeal the new health care law, or should they let it stand?
Sep 15 Jun 30 2011 2011 Repeal it 51 49 Let it stand 38 42 DK/NA 11 9