Informed Comment: Thoughts on the Middle East, History and Religion

Strange Satellite Craze

Posted on 09/23/2011 by Juan

The NASA satellite re-entering earth orbit late Friday has caused a sensation for some strange reason. Maybe because people have heard that it is 6 tons, about the weight of a mail truck, or because of the danger that someone might be hit by it.

But the six or seven tons won’t stay together. Most components will break up and burn up in the atmosphere. Really hard metals might survive to hit earth. They will be scattered.

The risk to you as an individual human being of being hit by this satellite debris is one in 20 trillion.

The odds of an American being struck by lightning in any given year are roughly one in a million.

So it is twenty million times more likely that you will be struck by lightning than that you will be hit by a piece of debris from this satellite.

The Telegraph has video:

In other words, worry about something else.

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Mahmoud Abbas goes to the UN

Posted on 09/23/2011 by Juan

President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestine Authority will give a major speech on Friday at the United Nations in conjunction with his planned request to the UN Security Council that Palestine be admitted as a member state to the United Nations. If 9 of 15 current UNSC members vote for the measure, Abbas can take it to the General Assembly, where he may well have the votes to succeed. In the end, the US will veto the move. But the Palestinians will have won a great symbolic victory.

Aljazeera English has video:

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has given the Palestinians a Plan B by proposing that they seek observer state status via the UN General Assembly, which can vote it by a majority rather than two-thirds. The Vatican is currently the only observer state. This status would give Palestine standing with the International Criminal Court in the Hague, should the Palestinians feel that a lawsuit might advance their cause. But Sarkozy and other European leaders are discouraging the Palestinians from this recourse to international courts, saying they should restart negotiations with Israel instead, this time without any preconditions. Sarkozy presented a timetable for negotiations that envisages a Palestinian state by late 2012. The Israelis flatly rejected the Sarkozy compromise late on Thursday.

In anticipation that Abbas’s speech will help provoke big Palestinian protests in the Occupied Territories, the Israelis are deploying an extra 22,000 police in the streets. They are also forbidding men less than 50 years old from traveling to the Dome of the Rock or praying at its mosque at Jerusalem. Abbas has not, however, called for violence.

In fact, whether it succeeds or not, this sort of diplomatic push on the part of the Palestinians is salutary precisely because it reworks conflict as politics and international negotiation.

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Posted in Israel/ Palestine | 1 Comment

Iraq Denies calling for Syrian President’s Resignation

Posted on 09/22/2011 by Juan

According to Agence France Presse’s Arabic service, Ali Moussawi, the spokesman for the office of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, is now denying that he told the New York Times that the Iraqi government had repeatedly suggested to Syrian President Bashar al-Asad that he resign. He gave a similar interview denying the remarks to a Kurdish news service, castigating the quotes ascribed to him as “imprecise” and “fabricated.”

Moussawi said that the article misquoted him, emphasizing that “It is not the character nor the procedure of this government to intervene in the affairs of other states, in addition to which it simply has not issued to this or that quarter any requests that anyone resign.” He said that all Baghdad had done was to suggest that President al-Asad institute some reforms. Likewise, speaker of the Iraqi parliament Usamah al-Nujayfi had requested that the Syrian government cease spilling blood.

I’m sure Michael Schmidt at the Times would not have gone to press with those quotes unless Moussawi really did supply them.

But clearly Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, and very possibly his Iranian backers, were dismayed to see the story on the front page of the New York Times. It is possible that al-Maliki was more critical of al-Asad last spring, but rethought his position as it became clear that a violent overthrow of the Syrian elite (drawn disproportionately from the Allawite branch of Shiite Islam) might ensconce the Muslim Brotherhood or other Sunni elements who are sympathetic to the Sunni insurgency in Iraq.

It is also possible that Moussawi himself had not gone along with the new, positive orientation toward the al-Asad government adopted by al-Maliki from mid-summer this year, apparently in part under pressure from the Iranian government and in part out of fear of a Sunni deluge in Syria. He would not be the first government spokesman to try to sabotage a policy with which he disagreed.

So maybe Moussawi is behind the curve, or maybe he is a dissident on Syria policy. But he is after all just a spokesman, and what matters is what al-Maliki says. And al-Maliki has been clear that he fears the turmoil in Syria, and he even warned that the Israelis might take advantage of it, which sounds more like an Iranian speech writer than a contemporary Iraqi one. Presumably al-Maliki called him on the mat and sent him out to retract the interview.

Iraq, of course, is being pulled in different directions over Syria by its Iranian and American allies. The Obama administration has slapped increasingly severe financial sanctions on Iran.

In other news, the Iraqi government is rejecting that idea that any US combat troops might remain in the country after December 31 of this year. But it is considering a relatively small number of trainers (the Obama administration appears to be offering 3,000 – 5,000), who will be necessary to drill Iraqi personnel on the operation of military equipment and aircraft. Most political forces in the country could live with trainers, they say. But the Muqtada al-Sadr group wants all US troops out altogether, and has threatened violence if they try to stay.

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Posted in Iraq, Syria | 4 Comments

Rabbani’s Assassination Sharpens Afghanistan Contradictions

Posted on 09/21/2011 by Juan

Burhan al-Din Rabbani’s assassination late Tuesday was a further signal that things are going very badly in Afghanistan. Rabbani is a former president of Afghanistan (1992-1996) who, however, was impossible to work with and was therefore sidelined after the overthrow of the Taliban (whom he fought) in 2001. He was recently brought back by President Hamid Karzai, however, to head a peace commission trying to reach out for talks to the Taliban and other insurgent forces fighting the Karzai government. Rabbani, because of his Muslim fundamentalist credentials, was plausible for the job, though the Northern Alliance he represented had resisted any peace with the Taliban. Radicals opposed to the negotiations therefore wanted him eliminated.

Last week, Rabbani was in Iran for a conference aimed at interpreting the Arab Spring as an Islamic awakening, which was addressed by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. While there, Rabbani reaffirmed the close ties of Kabul with Tehran (a position often taken by Tajik Sunnis and Hazara Shiites, but most often rejected by Pashtun Sunni hard liners such as the Taliban, who are closer to Pakistan).

Rabbani opposed the US and NATO presence in Afghanistan and blamed it for the country’s turmoil. Russia Today has video:

The assassination comes on the heels of an impudent attack on embassy row in Kabul last week, allegedly by the Haqqani Network based in North Waziristan, Pakistan. The US appears to have intelligence fingering the latter and has reacted angrily, saying that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence is actively allied with the Haqqanis and is using them to gain influence in southern Afghanistan.

The US now says Pakistan must move against the Haqqani Network, and that if Islamabad won’t do it, then Washington will attack unilaterally. This threat has produced outrage in Pakistan and further worsened relations between the US and Pakistan, which are fragile in the wake of the discovery of Usamah Bin Laden near a major military complex in Abottabad, Pakistan.

If the Haqqani Network turned out to be behind this assassination, as some analysts are suggesting, the US itch to act unilaterally would be reinforced. Rabbani’s attempt to negotiate with the Taliban was one of the few plausible end games for the Karzai government and for the US in Afghanistan. Those who want a Taliban victory (or a joint ISI/ Haqqani victory) in Afghanistan rather than a big tent settlement would have been threatened by Rabbani’s peace talks.

Rabbani was iconic of the turn of Afghanistan toward Muslim politics from the 1960s forward. From a Dari Persian-speaking (i.e. Tajik) background, Rabbani became the leader of the Jami’at-i Islami, the Afghanistan branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. He studied in Egypt and translated Sayyid Qutb, the Egyptian radical who inspired al-Qaeda, into Persian. Rabbani’s group fought the Communist government of Afghanistan 1978-1992, as part of the Mujahidin, whom Ronald Reagan termed “freedom fighters” and the equivalent of America’s founding fathers.

At the end of this period the Mujahidin took Kabul and Rabbani became president of a factious state that deteriorated into warlord rule. Rabbani worked out a deal with his rival Gulbadin Hikmatyar (a vicious far-right fundamentalist) whereby the latter would be vice president. The two fell out, however, and the forces of the president and those of the vice president fought each other so fiercely in Kabul in 1995 that they destroyed much of their own capital and killed some 17,000 people. It was one of modern Afghanistan’s major low points, and it paved the way for the Taliban to come to power, since Afghans were sick of the faction-fighting of the warlords.

It is ironic that the Taliban, who could not kill him when he was part of the Northern Alliance opposing their conquest of the northeast of the country in 1996-2001, have finally taken him out when he was attempting to play a very different role, of peace broker. After all, in Afghanistan warlords are a dime a dozen. But someone trying to make peace and reduce polarization– that is very dangerous to would-be revolutionaries who instead want to sharpen contradictions.

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Posted in Afghanistan | 7 Comments

Libyan Transitional Troops enter Sabha

Posted on 09/20/2011 by Juan

Reuters reports that Libyan troops of the new government have taken the airport of the southern desert city of Sabha, a key site on the route down to Niger. Sabha is one of four small cities of about 120,000 each that are still held by pro-Qaddafi forces.

AP reports that the Transitional National Council fighters met little resistance as they entered Sabha.

Also in the south, TNC forces captured General Belgacem Al-Abaaj, Qadhafi’s intelligence chief in the Al Khofra region.

Aljazeera English reports on the reign of terror by Qaddafi forces in the city of Bani Walid. Escaped dissidents say 90% of the city actually hates Qaddafi, but are repressed by the well-armed and -organized pro-Qaddafi fighters.

The USG Open Source Center sums up Libya radio broadcasts on Monday:

‘ FYI — Libya: Anti-Al-Qadhafi Radios Say Forces Seize Southern Surt, Take Bani Walid Soon
Libya — OSC Summary
Monday, September 19, 2011 …
Document Type: OSC Summary…

The anti-AlQadhafi radios, Voice of Free Libya (VOFL) from Misratah, VOFL from Benghazi, and Libya FM on 19 September discussed the anti-Al-Qadhafi troops’ endeavours to seize the cities of Surt and Bani Walid and the postponement of formation of a new interim government.

Monitored from 1000 to 1700 GMT, the radio stations mainly carried discussion programs and religious and patriotic songs.

Libya FM quoted Hisham Abu-Hajar as saying that Al-Saraya al-Hamra (Red Brigade), which includes 600 fighters, was tasked to pursue and arrest ousted leader Mu’ammar al-Qadhafi. He said that he had devoted all his wealth to finding Al-Qadhafi alive or dead. He said that Al-Qadhafi was near Sabha, the stronghold of tribes that were very loyal to the former regime.

Libya FM said that OPEC had recognized the Transitional National Council (TNC) as the representative of Libya in the organization.

Battles in Surt, Bani Walid

VOFL in Misratah said that the anti-Al-Qadhafi forces in Misratah controlled the southern area of Surt. It quoted a field commander as saying that the forces seized an airbase and some military vehicles in the city. Misratah hospital said 10 fighters were killed and 54 wounded during the troops’ advance to Surt, the radio reported.

The radio station quoted a field commander as saying that “the biggest problem is that there are children and civilians in the city and we do not want to use Grad missiles or heavy artillery”.

The radio station said that the anti-Al-Qadhafi forces intercepted a phone call by a commander of the Al-Qadhafi troops that indicated that Al-Qadhafi’s son Al-Mu’tassim was in the southern suburbs of Surt. The troops loyal to the TNC also advanced to Surt from the eastern front and were 8 kms from the city, VOFL reported.

VOFL quoted the TNC forces’ official in charge of negotiations in Bani Walid as saying that there were fierce battles there. He expected that the anti-Al-Qadhafi troops would control the city within the next two days. VOFL quoted him as saying that there were talks with Al-Qadhafi forces in Bani Walid to allow more families to leave the city.

Libya FM said that anti-Al-Qadhafi troops in Sabha had seized several districts in the town.

VOFL in Benghazi said that fierce battles had broken out between pro-Al-Qadhafi forces and forces loyal to the TNC in Waddan town.

Interim government

VOFL in Misratah quoted Mahmud al-Nakku, the TNC diplomatic representative in London, as attributing the decision of postponing the announcement of a new interim government to disagreements on ministerial portfolios.

VOFL quoted the general official of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) in Libya, Sulayman Abd-al-Qadir, as denying holding any official talks with the movement on the formation of the interim government. He said: “We want the voice of all the political forces to be heard without exclusion”. He said that MB members’ presence in the line-up of the government or the TNC was part of full citizenship rights and this applied to all political groups.

A speaker called Salim in a discussion programme on Libya FM called for introducing a multi-party system based on citizenship and equality away from any quota system in the allocation of official posts.

Libya FM quoted the British newspaper Financial Times as saying that the leaders of Misratah were behind the postponement of the announcement of the new interim government because of “their insistence on having a distinguished position in the new government line-up”.

Presenters of Benghazi radio station’s daily discussion and phone-in program “Free Men on Air” called for rejecting tribalism. They urged unity and warned of conflict between tribes.

Libya FM quoted the commander of the Tripoli Military Council, Abd-al-Hakim Bilhaj, as saying that “we aspire to establish a democratic civil state”. He said that stability was being restored gradually in Tripoli.

A VOFL programme discussed “conceit and its danger to the revolution, Muslims’ beliefs and its role in fomenting conflicts”. Studio guest cleric Abu-Bakr al-Mabruki warns against any town taking great pride in their achievements in the battles against the Al-Qadhafi forces.’