October 3, 2011

2011 New York 9th CD Special Election Pollster Ratings

The following table lists the accuracy of pollsters in the September 13, 2011 special election for the New York 9th Congressional District using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.  

The accuracy measures for the three surveys are within the 95% confidence interval.

2011 Nevada 2d CD Special Election Pollster Ratings

The following table lists the accuracy of pollsters in the September 13, 2011 special election for the Nevada 2d Congressional District using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.  

The accuracy measures for the Magellan and PPP surveys are within the 95% confidence interval.

The accuracy measure for the PPP* survey falls outside the 95% confidence interval. This survey was conducted August 18-21, 2011 and the sample dates are comparable to the Magellan survey that was conducted August 15-16, 2011.

September 30, 2011

Lynch and Obama Job Approval in New Hampshire

Has John Lynch received the highest quarterly job approval rating since the New Hampshire Poll began in 1976? No.

The highest quarterly job approval rating, 77%, goes to Jeanne Shaheen in March 1998. She is followed closely by Steve Merrill in June 1993 with an approval rating of 76%, and John Sununu in June 1983 with an approval rating of 71%. Lynch's highest approval rating to date was 68% in September 2006. Lynch's quarterly average is 52% approve compared to Shaheen's average of 53% approve while she was governor.

A total of 51% of New Hampshire residents say they are financially worse off compared to a year ago, 37% say they are the same, and 12% say they are better off. Of the 31% saying they approve of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president, 29% say they are better off, 50% say they are the same, and 21% say they are worse off. Of the 59% saying they disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job, 6% say they are financially better off, 29% say they are the same, and 65% say they are worse off compared to a year ago.

Results from the September 2011 Quarterly New Hampshire Poll are now available. NH residents rate NH business conditions, their personal finances, John Lynch, and Barack Obama.

September 28, 2011

Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus

Mitt Romney leads among likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers with 21%. Romney is followed by Michele Bachmann at 15%, Rick Perry at 14%, and Ron Paul at 12%.

In early July, Bachmann was leading with 21%, followed by Romney at 18%, Paul at 14%, Sarah Palin at 11%, and Perry at 2%.

Among Tea Party supporters, Bachmann leads with 19% (down from 30% in July), Perry is at 14% (up from 3% in July), Gingrich and Paul are at 13% each, Herman Cain is at 10%, and Romney is at 6%.

Among those saying they are not Tea Party supporters or are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney leads with 37% (up from 31% in July), followed by Perry at 15%, Paul at 11%, and Bachmann at 10%.

Among those saying they will definitely attend the Republican caucus, Romney leads with 19% (up from 17% in July), followed by Bachmann and Perry at 15% each, and Paul at 14%. In July, 25% of definite Republican caucus-goers said Bachmann and 2% said Perry.

Details from the survey of 600 likely Republican caucus-goers conducted September 22-27 can be found here.

September 22, 2011

New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary

Mitt Romney continues to lead the New Hampshire Republican presidential preference primary. Romney, at 30% among likely Republican primary voters, is followed by Rick Perry at 13%, Ron Paul at 12%, and Jon Huntsman at 10%.

Preference for Romney is virtually unchanged since a similar survey in July, but Perry is up 11 percentage points, Huntsman is up 10 percentage points, and Paul is up 8 percentage points from the July survey. Bachmann has lost 5 percentage points since the July survey.

Romney leads among registered Republicans likely to vote in the presidential primary with 35%, followed by Perry at 13% and Paul at 10%. Among undeclared voters (independents), Romney leads with 19%, followed by Huntsman at 17%, Paul at 15%, and Perry at 14%.

Perry leads among Tea Party supporters with 23%, followed by Romney at 21%, and Paul at 10%. Among likely Republican primary voters saying they are not supporters of the Tea Party or that they are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney leads with 38%, followed by Huntsman at 19%, and Paul at 13%.

Details from the survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters conducted September 16-21 can be found here.

September 21, 2011

A total of 41% of Americans say they approve of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president and 56% say they disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job. In August, 41% of Americans approved of the job Obama was doing and 53% disapproved. When it comes to Obama's handling of the economy, 37% of Americans approve and 60% disapprove. In August, 40% approved and 55% disapproved of Obama's handling of the economy.

Among Americans registered to vote, 40% approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president and 57% disapprove. On Obama's handling of the economy, 36% of registered voters approve and 60% disapprove.

Details from the nationwide survey conducted September 17-20 are available at The National Economy.

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The margins of error reported for most polls underestimate the actual margins of error for ballot estimates from the same samples. Use the Ballot Lead Calculator to determine if the lead for any survey is statistically significant.