October 9th, 2011

The other day I told a friend who is struggling with a relationship problem about a poker game logic puzzle I used to invoke back when I was treating psychotherapy patients. He found it quite helpful so I am passing it along for whatever it might be worth to others in similar situations.

The logic problem involves a table at which four people are playing poker. You walk around the table and espy everyone’s hand. The first player has a royal flush, the second player has a full house, the third player has a pair of 7s and the fourth player has a king high.

Question: “Which player has the worst hand?” (Answer after the jump) Read the rest of this entry »

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October 9th, 2011

The LA Times reports today that Texas cattle owners are shipping cattle away from their dry Texas to verdant Minnesota.  How costly is this migration?  This is adaptation at work.   Cattle and people have some things in common.

 

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October 9th, 2011

Herman Cain thinks he can draw 1 in 3 African-American voters, which some media outlets are reporting as if it were a remotely sensible statement. The President’s prior experience running against a different never-before-elected outspoken Black Republican preacher and radio host is instructive (or at least ought to be): Black voters in Illinois went for Obama by a more than 11 to 1 margin over Alan Keyes in the 2004 U.S. Senate race.

African-Americans remain staunch Democratic voters, and though President Obama’s approval among Black Americans has slipped a bit this year, a whopping 86% have a generally favorable view of him. If only Blacks were allowed to vote and Cain were the Republican nominee, the President would completely crush him in every precinct in the country.

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October 9th, 2011

All three kindof rock. I like Al Jolson’s the best. But Johnny Mathis is pretty great, too. Plus Mathis has the best acting.
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October 8th, 2011

It’s a bad sign for American punditry that George Will’s latest column slams Elizabeth Warren in such disgraceful fashion. It’s a good sign for American politics, though, that the dean of patrician conservative columnists felt the need to do so. I’m not the first to the party here–Yom Kippur intervened–but I still want to weigh in.

Mr. Will excoriating the below words spoken by Elizabeth Warren at a recent fundraiser:
Read the rest of this entry »

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October 8th, 2011

Here is a good review of Gernot Wagner’s new book.    As readers of this blog know, most economists aren’t witty and don’t write well.  Dr. Wagner is a counter-example.   I’m a big fan of his book.  His book emphasizes the power of incentives to change individual and firm behavior.   Like almost all economists, he wants to see a global carbon tax adopted as this would trigger the “magic of the market”.  But, we all know that we have refused to take our medicine.

Do you have a vision for how the world’s big nations could commit to new rising carbon taxes?  Jeffrey Frenkel offers some impressive thoughts here.

When individuals choose not to embrace cost effective collective action, what happens next?  Is the society doomed and must anticipate an ugly end?  I wrote my Climatopolis  to nudge folks to have this discussion.   The thought that we can possibly adapt to new challenges is obvious to some and a dangerous thought to many readers of this blog and this blog.

Read the rest of this entry »

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October 8th, 2011

Whenever political conservatives gather these days, stentorian pronouncements about gay marriage are soon to follow. This is particularly true at the meetings of conservative political parties, which tend to be dominated by the most committed activists. Thus one should not be surprised to hear a conservative politician throwing red meat like this to the base at a party convention:

Conservatives believe in the ties that bind us; that society is stronger when we make vows to each other and support each other. So I don’t support gay marriage despite being a Conservative. I support gay marriage because I’m a Conservative.

Oh sorry, I seem to have mixed up my U.K. and U.S. newspapers this morning. Shouldn’t blog before I down that second cup of coffee. Insert Emily Litella quote here.

That was minor Conservative party figure David Cameron, by the way.

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October 7th, 2011

… goes, not to Rick Perry – though his integrity is so minuscule you’d need an electron microscope to see it – but to Mitt Romney. How low to the ground do you have to be to allow your ancestral faith to be insulted and not hit back?

Contrast Benjamin Disraeli, a baptized Christian and a faithful member of the Church of England but a Jew by ancestry, taunted about his Jewishness by an Irish opponent: “Yes, I am a Jew. And when the ancestors of the right honorable gentleman were brutal savages in an unknown island, mine were priests in the temple of Solomon.”

Now, that’s the way it’s done. But the Boneless Wonder doesn’t have it in him. It’s not that Romney has any scruples about fighting dirty: his attack on Perry over immigration was about as raw as they come. But Romney is a coward and a bully. He knows the mob isn’t on his side about Mormonism, so he’s prepared to absorb the insult to his religion rather than make it an issue.

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October 7th, 2011

From Politico (and closely modeled elsewhere):

Rick Perry backer Robert Jeffress:
Mitt Romney not a Christian

So the Ayatollah Jeffress, introducing Rick Perry to the Values Voter Summit, drew the contrast between Perry’s born-again Christianity and (by clear implication) Mitt Romney’s Mormonism. Afterwards, speaking to reporters, Jeffress expressed the long-standing Southern Baptist view that Mormons aren’t Christians but members of a “cult.”

What else is new? As a matter of comparative religion, it’s not silly to distinguish Mormonism from (the rest of) Christianity. While Mormonism has more of its theological DNA in common with Cathlolicism, Orthodoxy, and Protestantism than with frankly non-Christian denominations, Mormon beliefs are also, in important ways, at variance with historical Christianity. Since Mormons consider themselves Christians, what Jeffress said was rude, but it wasn’t clearly wrong.

But here’s Jeffress’s peroration, after which Perry said that Jeffress had “hit it out of the park”:

Do we want a candidate who is a good moral person, or do we want a candidate who is a born-again follower of Jesus Christ? In Rick Perry, we have a candidate who is a committed follower of Christ.

Later, speaking to reporters, Jeffress doubled down:

I think Mitt Romney’s a good, moral man, but I think those of us who are born-again followers of Christ should always prefer a competent Christian to a competent – to a competent non-Christian like Mitt Romney.

So why are reporters asking Perry and his rivals to opine about whether Mormons are Christians or cult members? (Naturally, Rick “Profile in Anything But Courage” Perry chose to duck, though he seemed happy enough with the introduction when Jeffress gave it. His campaign says he didn’t choose Jeffress as his introducer, but the organizers say that Jeffress’s name was cleared by the campaign two weeks ago, and Jeffress – who has expressed similar views of Mormonism before – was one of the sponsors of Perry’s stadium-revival-cum-campaign rally.)

The question that casts light on their fitness for the Presidency is whether sectarian bigotry has a place in the polling booth.

Of course, the Value Voters Summit was being held, for the third consecutive year, on one of the Jewish High Holidays – what a coinky-dink – so there were no even slightly observant Jews present. But someone should ask Eric Cantor what he thinks about a principle that would exclude him from office. Or, for that matter, any of the professional Jews who have sold out to the Republicans for a mess of capital gains tax exclusion and Arab-bashing.

What was any candidate for the Presidency doing at this annual festival of hate? Oh yeah, I forgot: they were all angling for the votes of the dominant faction of the Republican Party.

Be afraid. Be very afraid.

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October 7th, 2011

Via Sullivan, Jon Stewart’s take-down of multiple-choice Mitt is as good a short summary of the GOP’s front-running chameleon.  But I can’t help but think that Romney’s transparent hypocrisy would help him in a general election campaign.  Democrats should avoid making it the center of their 2012 anti-Romney strategy.

First, it would detract from any substantive attack on the GOP agenda: attack on his lack of core beliefs would obscure the fact that we elect parties, not individuals, and a Romey Administration will essentially enshrine the Tea Party in the executive branch.

Second, voters think that all politicians are hypocrites: the question is which hypocrite they want.  So attacks on Romney’s lack of sincerity won’t do much damage anyway.

Third, and perhaps most important, when it comes to the wingnut Republican base, Romney’s whole general election strategy will be one huge wink: don’t worry, guys, you know I’ve got to say this, but I don’t really believe it.  Attacking Romney for hypocrisy thus will this reinforce his attempt to move to the center.

At the end of the day, a President Romney will essentially be George W. Bush redux.  Hypocrisy doesn’t enter into it.  If you loved what George W. Bush did to the country, you’ll adore the Romney Administration.  That’s the message, which will not only be politically more effective in my view, but does carry the additional merit of being true.

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