Is Newt the End of Boom & Bust?

Is Newt's rise to frontrunner status just the last or latest in the boom and bust cycle of would-be Mitt-slayers in the GOP presidential contest? Or is he the end of it?

TPM Reader MO thinks it's Newt's to lose ...

A Sight to Behold

After the Bachmann surge and the Perry flameout, the boom and bust pattern of would-be Romney-slayers in the GOP primary battle became familiar to most election observers. After Cain's moment in the sun it became conventional wisdom. And now with Newt it's almost a cliche.

But it's one thing to see it in general and it's another to see it graphed out in front of you. The charts below are from the beta version of the new TPMPolltracker, slated to be released next month.

First is Iowa.

Hard to Watch, But Must See

It starts with a professor mocking a congressman for going to a community college. Then the congressman started ordering the professor around like a servant. And then, well, if it weren't already bad enough, it went down hill from there. Watch.

Special Thanksgiving Edition!

The top 5 turkeys of the 2011 pre-campaign season.

Tough Times in Bergholz

The Feds moved in this morning and arrested seven members of the so-called 'Bergholz Clan', a cult-like breakaway Amish group responsible for a harrowing wave of beard-cutting incidents in Amish Country aimed at religious backsliders. Federal charges are under the Matthew Shepard-James Byrd Hate Crimes Prevention Act. The FBI affidavit also alleges additional 'cult-like' practices such as leader Samuel Mullet "'counseling' the married women in the Bergholz clan and taking them into his home so that he may cleanse them of the devil with acts of sexual intimacy."

Memory Lane

If you watched closely, the questioners at the GOP debate were like a walk down memory lane of the Bush foreign policy and national security team. David Addington, Paul Wolfowitz and more.

"It's Going to be a Really Different Campus."

UC Davis students reflect on the pepper spray incident that has transfixed the country and transformed the campus.

FBI Moves Against Secthairian Violence

FBI raid early this morning nabbed seven Amish men allegedly connected to a string of hair-cutting ambushes on fellow Amish.

Trojan Turkey

Butterball turkeys are the newest vector for creeping sharia law.

Flag It

In the wake of the New York al Doubie terror case, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) has asked Google to institute a new system on their Blogger publishing platform where readers can flag "terrorist content."

What You Missed

Debate In 100 Seconds: It's A Scary World Out There!

Summing It Up

Like I said below, I think Newt's stand/dare on immigration is the big news out of this debate. I'm not sure whether it's a killer or maybe a breakthrough. But this has sunk other contenders. So it's a big moment. Our team is on it. We'll have more for you shortly.

Newt in the Danger Zone

I think Newt's edging into the GOP danger zone here on immigration. He really did say he'd provide a path to legality, though not citizenship, to a substantial number of the current undocumented population. Bachmann called him on it. And he denied he said it. But Bachmann, I think, was right. He did say it.

Now, that's an immensely logical thing for Newt to say -- that you're not going to be uprooting and separating families who've been here for a quarter century.

But this is toxic in GOP primary politics. It helped sink Rick Perry.

And then he went the extra mile, suggesting that opposing his position is inhumane ...

I'm prepared to take the heat for saying, let's be humane in enforcing the law without giving them citizenship but by finding a way to create legality so that they are not separated from their families.

I think this is going to be the story of the evening.

Newmentum

A small observation: I think Newt has adjusted well to his nominal frontrunner status. In the context of a GOP primary debate tonight he's been cool, dramatic in his own way but not over-the-top. He's ratcheted back the angry retorts, which appear to have been key to his jump into the lead. But I think he's done it in a way that may make him more palatable to a broader primary electorate without losing him what brought him to this point.

I still can't believe that Newt has any real chance to be the nominee. But I think he's done well for himself tonight.

Mitt Hedges on First Name

One of the more entertaining moments of the debate: Willlard Mitt Romney insists his first name is "Mitt".

Back to the Future

Quite apart from the content, the questioners tonight are like a flashback from the previous decade.

Every Last Nugget

We're following every last development in the debate at TPMLivewire.

Live Blogging pt.2

8:17 PM: Newt is so in his element tonight. He's feeling his wheaties, able to get off his blunt comments and snark against a rival and managing a pretty good retort all in the process.

8:26 PM: That was weird. I think Herman Cain just said that he'd profile Muslims from the Arab world and South Asia but he says he'll let the professionals tell him that it's the Arabs and Pakistanis who need to be profiled.

Here's what Cain said ...

I believe we can do a whole lot better with TSA, and I call it targeted identification ... Targeted identification. If you take a look at the people who have tried to kill us, it would be easy to figure out exactly what that identification profile looks like. But I want to make sure that i get to the patriot act

...

I happen to believe if you allow our intelligence agencies to do their job, they can come up with an approach ... Wolf, what I'm saying is let's ask the professionals to give us an approach of how we can increase the identification of people that might be a danger to civilians as well as a danger to this nation.

Another FP Debate Blogging

8:02 PM: So far I'm loving the Minority Reportish candidate bio interface and the Nukish debate intro. Reminding me of earlier epic debate intros from this season.

8:06 PM: Why is Wolf intro'ing these guys like the guy from Let's Make a Deal?

8:07 PM: Who thought the singer looked like a genetically reengineered Rick Perry.

8:09 PM: Is Wolf on crack?

8:11 PM: Wait, that's not Mitt's name. Mitt's first name is "Willard."

Here We Go

A quick reminder that the GOP presidential candidates convene tonight in DC for a debate focused on national security (and foreign policy? or are we just doing the saber-rattling thing?). We've got you covered here from start to finish. Debate starts at 8 p.m. ET.