Empire by the Numbers

Posted on 11/26/2011 by Juan

Number of Pakistani troops killed at checkpoint Saturday by a US helicopter raid from Afghanistan: 25

Number of NATO supply trucks allowed to cross from Pakistan to Afghanistan Saturday: 0

Number of Afghan children killed near Qandahar Wednesday by a US air strike: 6

Percentage of Pakistanis [pdf] who want US troops out of Afghanistan: 69

Number of US troops now in Iraq: 18,000

Number of US troops in Iraq at height of war: 170,000

Number of bases US built in Iraq: 505

Number to be turned over to Iraq: 505

Percentage of Arab publics expressing favorable view of US in 2011: 26

In 2010: 10

Increase in Pentagon budget today over that in Reagan’s first term (when US faced Soviet threat): 11 %

Number of US troops President Obama deployed to Uganda last month: 100

Likely cut in Pentagon budget as a result of failure of super-committee to reach budget deal: 20%

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Posted in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Uncategorized | Leave a Comment

Anti-Liberal Netanyahu Slams Arab Spring as Anti-Liberal

Posted on 11/25/2011 by Juan

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said yesterday that he had been right to oppose the forced resignation of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak last February and categorized the uprisings in the Arab world as “anti-Western, anti-liberal, anti-Israeli and anti-democratic wave.” He gave the “uncertainty” in the region as yet another excuse for the Likud Party to continue to steal and squat on ever greater portions of the Palestinian West Bank.

Netanyahu’s outburst is of course completely illogical, and also deeply dishonest. When the Arabs were ruled by dictatorships then that was the reason for which Israel could or should steal Palestinian land and keep the Palestinians stateless and devoid of rights. If they have anti-authoritarian grassroots movements demanding parliaments, now that is the reason for the same policies.

Netanyahu seems to be under the illusion that somehow if only the US and Western Europe had tried harder, they could have magically kept Zine El Abedin Ben Ali and Hosni Mubarak in power. But when you’ve got a million people in the center of the capital demanding the dictator leave, and millions gathered in cities and towns throughout the country supporting them in that demand, it really isn’t plausible to imagine that an outside power could retain that hated tyrant. Even if Barack Obama could have pulled off this miracle, it likely wouldn’t have been for very long, and the very attempt would have pushed the Arab masses into radicalism.

Netanyahu’s four adjectives for the movements in Tunisia and Egypt are anti-Western, anti-liberal, anti-Israeli and anti-democratic.

There is another possibility, which is that the movements want democracy and liberalism (in the John Stuart Mill sense of the term, i.e. parliamentary governance and individual rights), but that Netanyahu doesn’t want them to have it because he knows that the scam of Likudnik “Greater Israel” expansion can only be pursued if Israel’s neighbors are ruled by dictators that Israel can threaten or bribe into acquiescence.

Tunisia’s movement has eventuated in the only genuinely democratic election that the country has ever seen. It is true that about 40 percent of the seats were won by the al-Nahda Muslim party, but it has committed to a civil state and could only form a government in coalition with two secular parties. The resulting Tunisian government is far less fundamentalist than Shas and other small religious parties in Israel, which are in Netanyahu’s coalition. Since Tunisia isn’t keeping 4 million people under the boot of foreign military occupation the way Netanyahu is, Tunisia is definitely more democratic than Israel as things now stand, even if its institutions and parties are not as mature.

The charge of “anti-Western” is just propaganda. People aren’t “anti-Western” in principle, they protest particular Western policies. For instance, they mind people like Netanyahu trying to ensure that dictators like Mubarak and Ben Ali remain in power over them. When the “West” did the right thing and supported the Libyan people against the murderous Qaddafi regime, people in Benghazi started waving American, French and British flags. When President Obama finally saw the writing on the wall and gave Mubarak a push, and forbade the Egyptian military to shoot people in the streets, many people in Egypt somewhat revised their view of him. (There were some anti-American posters in Tahrir Square in January and February, but I spent much of July in Tahrir and don’t remember seeing a single anti-American sign). Far from mindlessly condemning “the West,” newly minted Tunisian president Moncef Marzouki has spent a lot of time trying to explain the Arab world to the West. As for revolutionary Egypt, it is still getting $1.2 billion a year in aid from Washington, which doesn’t sound anti-Western to me.

It is not clear what Netanyahu means when he calls the Arab protesters “anti-liberal.” Classical Liberalism is a philosophy of individual rights, parliamentary governance, and liberties. The 20th century Liberal tradition in contrast is about the state ensuring the welfare of the people. The revolutionaries say that they want individual liberties and parliamentary elections. They also want the government to ensure the public welfare. I’d say that many of them are liberals in both senses.

It is true that 30-40% of the electorate favors Muslim religious parties in Tunisia and Egypt (though some do so for non-religious reasons). But religion is not necessarily incompatible with 20th century liberalism (American liberalism has some strong Catholic and Jewish roots). It is true that religious laws imposing morality and punishing victimless crimes contravene the liberal principles of someone like John Stuart Mill. So the Muslim Brotherhood is not classically liberal. But neither was Roman Catholicism classically liberal in the 19th century, and the Haredim who constitute an increasingly large proportion of Israel’s population are likewise hardly classical liberals!

One irony in Netanyahu calling other people “anti-liberal” is that the Likud Party tradition in which he stands (rooted in the “revisionist” Zionism of Zeev Jabotinsky and the terrorist Stern Gang) is highly anti-liberal. The revisionists celebrate their bombing of the King David Hotel in 1946, in which 91 persons, mostly innocents, were killed. Larry Derfner wrote in 2010 that “years ago, when Etzel veterans commemorated the 60th anniversary of the King David bombing, Netanyahu, scion of a proud Revisionist family, was the featured speaker.” (Jerusalem Post, July 29, 2010.) And if anything, some of Netanyahu’s coalition partners, such as Avigdor Lieberman’s largely Russian/Ukrainian Yisrael Beitenu, are even more right wing and authoritarian than Likud.

Netanyahu just shut down a radio station because he did not like its editorial position, the act of an anti-liberal tyrant. One of his media advisers has resigned over the increasing erosion of freedom of speech in Israel. Netanyahu’s majority in the Israeli parliament has also outlawed tools of grassroots organizing such as calling for boycotts. A push is being made to deprive Arabic, the language of over 20% of Israel’s population, from any official status, and Lieberman would like to make large numbers of Israeli citizens stateless. This is “liberal”? Nor is the entire apparatus of Israel’s military occupation of the West Bank and military blockade of Gaza “liberal.”

As for the Arab protesters, it would be possible for the Tunisian and Egyptian activists to be pro-democratic, but to have a strong critique of Western imperialism and of the Likud Party’s oppression of the Palestinians. A critique of Israeli policy toward Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza is not the same thing as being “anti-Israel” (except in the Likud Party’s illiberal worldview). It is also logically possible for some of the protesters to be pro-democracy without being classically liberal.

In any case, the exact mix of political practices and philosophies that emerges in the Arab world in the aftermath to the 2011 movements is irrelevant to Netanyahu’s vast land thefts in the West Bank, which are immoral, inhumane and illegal according to the Geneva Convention of 1949 on the treatment of peoples in militarily occupied territories.

Netanyahu is so blinkered that he thinks his completely unrealistic stance that the West should have tried to keep the dictator Hosni Mubarak in power has been proved right. He is so captive of illogic that he cannot see the hypocrisy of claiming that the Tunisian democrats are “anti-liberal” while himself advocating continued dictatorship! And Netanyahu is so dedicated to the Greater Israel project that he cannot see that it is what generates “anti-Israel” sentiments among his neighbors. It is sort as if a con man who was stealing your brother’s property should call you a despot and a bigot for objecting to his theft.

The one thing Netanyahu has right is that public opinion is going to start mattering in the Arab world in a new way, and that opinion is not favorable to Likud Party policies. As usual, Netanyahu is drawing a completely wrong conclusion from this reality — that he should accelerate and trumpet the very land theft to which Arab public opinion objects. Sooner or later the Likud is going to get its comeuppance for blind arrogance. I fear a lot of innocents are going to be harmed as a result.

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Posted in Israel/ Palestine | 22 Comments

Beeman: Letter from Iran

Posted on 11/25/2011 by Juan

This is the second in a series of letters written this week from Iran by University of Minnesota Professor William Beeman. Since Americans hear so little directly from that country in their media, I thought it was worth sharing, and Bill kindly agreed to let me do so.. — Juan .

Dear Friends…

Two other Americans showed up for our conference, entitled “The First International Conference on Human Rights and Cultures: Cultures in Support of Humanity.” It is being held at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and heavy in attendance are the students from the Foreign Policy School run by the Ministry. Some . . . may find the subject of the conference “ironic,” but in fact the organizers, the Non Aligned Movement Center for Human Rights and Cultural Diversity, has assembled quite a large and stellar international group of scholars, NGO officers, Peace Movement functionaries and government officials for this.

The 64 presentations have been on a high level, and would meet a significant academic standard anywhere. Some titles:

“Protection of Cultural Property in Armed Conflicts”
“Constructing the Other”
“The Role of Cultural Diversity in Promoting a Culture of Peace”
“Establishing a Normative Framework for Evaluating Diverse Cases of Transitional Justice”

The graduate students in international relations are especially impressive. They all have impeccable English, are extremely charming, and are working on serious dissertation topics, such as: “Iran’s Developing Relations with Egypt 2000-2011,” “International Economics in non-petroleum sector in the Gulf Region,” “Iran’s prospects in West Africa” and many more. A group of them at dinner surprised me: “Do you speak Spanish?” Well I do, and so do they–quite impressively! They are all learning Spanish and plan trips to Latin America in the Near Future–even the young man posted as political officer in Sweden.

The young women graduate students have been formidable. Several are giving papers. They make up more than half of the student body. They ask great questions, don’t back down and have facts and figures at the fingertips. Forgive me for noticing sartorial details, but although they are dressed in impeccable hejab, every one of them has something that makes her dress stand out. It seems the fashion is now to turn the maqna’eh into a flattering accessory. There is the maqna’eh with a kind of rhinestone band at the forehead, one with little extensions in the front that can be wrapped in a clever loose bow, one with discreet embroidery around the edge. The women pair long skirts and jackets with front panels in white or pastel colors. They are in effect wearing the equivalent of the skirted suit. It is very smart and very professional while being distinctive.

I am sure there is a great deal of unhappiness in Tehran with the most ordinary meat at $22 a kilo and gasoline at $4 a liter, but this privileged crowd was a very happy bunch. It is always dangerous to conclude things from a few casual encounters, but I was surprised to have a cab driver tell me that gas was “still cheaper than Europe” and a shop-keeper tell me that red meat was too expensive, but there was always chicken, and vegetables were healthier anyway. “You don’t have to put a lot of meat into a khoresht.”

Several people asked me about the Wall Street movement. Their sophistication was notable. One young guy said, “it seems to me that they aren’t accomplishing much unless they can get some law passed.” Many could cite chapter and verse on the bank bailouts, the mortgage crisis and the unequal distribution of income (and taxes)–just proving what I always think coming home, and that is that Iranians know much more about America than Americans do about Iran.

In general everyone I talk to claims that their greatest concern is the economy. They are dismayed at the UK and EU cutting off dealings with the Central and other banks. “It doesn’t hurt the leaders in Tehran or the Guard,” said one, “It hurts ordinary people. We don’t understand why the Europeans and Americans want to do this to us.” So much for the fantasy that if life is made miserable enough, the people will rise up and overthrow their government.

And life is far from miserable, at least in North Tehran. Typical urban landscapes: A giant crystalline cineplex looks down on a huge shopping mall with every possible worldly good readily available. A six lane expressway winds through a gigantic landscaped urban park. The streets are jammed with young people strolling, sitting in cafes and just riding around in their cars.

The delegates to the conference are surprised–especially those who have never been here. “I thought Iran was some dark place with total police control,” said one man from India. “But it isn’t! I haven’t even seen a policeman.” A Vietnamese delegate said: “I thought I was going to be robbed, but my friends here tell me they are completely safe.” Clearly the negative press on Iran has done its job well.

Politics: One ministry official asks me point blank: “Is AIPAC really writing American laws?” Another says: “I guess we shouldn’t hope for closer relations with the U.S. now that the Republicans have Obama trapped.” A third: “Look at all the Chinese and Russians everywhere here. Do you think that is an accident?”

Informal poll: Many people think that Mr. Qalibaf has a good shot at the presidency in 2013. “He’s good looking, speaks well and he has succeeded in several administrative posts.” Some find Mr. Masha’ie intriguing but feel he has been damaged too much by bad press to be viable. People wink and hint at the idea of a revival of the Green Movement. It is clearly a dangerous topic, but it is still on peoples’ minds.

I certainly urge anyone with an interest to come to Iran. Despite ideological or political misgivings one might have, these discussions are vital and important. Without ideas and human contact nothing will ever change.

Best,

Bill Beeman
University of Minnesota

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Posted in Iraq | 16 Comments

Top Ten Things Americans can be Thankful for 2011

Posted on 11/24/2011 by Juan

News is too often defined as bad news. At a time when many Americans are unemployed or under-employed, or have lost their homes or seen their value plummet, it is hard to be too sunny. But the US does have a lot of good news stories to celebrate, despite the adversity we are currently facing, and it is in the tradition of this day to highlight those things for which we can be grateful.

1. The Iraq War is finally over. Not just major combat operations. Not just a phase of the war. The whole. War. Is. Over. Done. Complete. Out of there. US troops are going to be out of the country by the end of the year. Those who cavil that maybe a few trainers or embassy guards will be left behind don’t remember when there were 160,000 US troops in that country during a time of fierce fighting and civil war. As someone who followed the war intensively, I feel cheated that our troops will have no parade, and there will perhaps be no public ceremony marking the milestone. But it was a horrible thing, a great catastrophe for all concerned, and we can all be thankful that the war has ended.

2. Al-Qaeda, the radical organization that attacked the United States on September 11, 2001 and threw the country into a decade of militarism, has lost its leader and been rendered “operationally ineffective” and is within two arrests of being more or less rolled up.

3. The United States lost no troops in the Libya War. The international intervention was relatively successful in preventing a massacre and further repression of the Libyan population in cities such as Benghazi, which had risen up against the regime of dictator Muammar Qaddafi. The worst prognostications of critics were never realized. The US and NATO never had to commit ground forces. Libya did not splinter. Tripoli did not fall into chaos and looting when the revolutionaries took it over. Initial shortages of food and water were quickly overcome by the civil authorities and outside aid agencies. The recent capture of key regime figures such as Saif al-Islam Qaddafi has made it unlikely that there is anyone to lead a rear guard insurgency against the new Libya. A new, national unity government has been formed around a political liberal, PM Abdel Rahim Keeb. Indeed, cabinet is remarkably secular in make-up. Libya faces many problems, coming out of a civil war and decades of the brutal rule of a mercurial tyrant. But so far things have turned out about as well as could have been expected, and the United States (which had suffered at Qaddafi’s hands in incidents such as the bombing of a US airliner over Lockerbie in the UK) came out of the war without casualties.

4. There is now an unambiguous Arab democracy, Tunisia. Of the 22 member states of the Arab League, most are absolute monarchies, authoritarian Arab nationalist regimes, or military dictatorships. Freedom House ranked only 3 Arab states as “partly free” in 2010– Lebanon, Kuwait and Morocco. All three have regular parliamentary elections, but politics are constrained by militias or monarchs in ways that curb key liberties. (Iraq has also now had two regular parliamentary elections, but is classed “not free” because of political instability and widespread violence).

Tunisia’s parliamentary election of October 23 was free and fair, and genuinely popular parties won, made a coalition with one another across ideological divides, and promptly formed a government (processes that seem to take forever in Lebanon). At the moment, print censorship has been abolished. Big questions remain as to whether the Muslim religious party, al-Nahda, can rule a civil state effectively and without imposing religion. But the establishment of a thoroughgoing Arab democracy, and the aspirations for such a system in Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria and Bahrain are good news for the US.

5. Violent crime continues to decline in the United States, with violent crime and property crimes falling 6% in 2010, according to a recent FBI report. Murder, rape, robbery and other serious crimes have fallen to a 48-year low. Whatever the reason for the decline (which is country-wide, and, indeed, mirrored in Canada as well), it argues for repeal of those ‘three strikes and you’re out’ laws that have filled up our prisons. The bad news: Americans say in opinion polls that they think crime is getting worse.

6. American democracy remains vital at the grass roots level, whether on the left or the right. The remarkable enthusiasm around the 2008 elections, the vitality of the 2010 congressional elections, the rise of the Tea Party and of Occupy Wall Street, student demonstrations and mobilizations for recalls and defeats of long-term incumbents– all of these developments point to a continued participatory democracy that is a good omen for the future.

7. American innovation and ingenuity remain strong in the face of challenges such as high petroleum prices and climate change from burning coal, gas and oil. Iowa now gets 20 percent of its electricity from wind turbines, and some close observers believe it could eventually go to 50% (as Denmark plans to do).

8. I know it seems as though it is a long way off, but it isn’t. India and Pakistan are taking serious steps to normalize their trade relations by the end of 2012. Anything that reduces tensions between the Asian giants is good for world peace (the US is a de facto ally of Pakistan and would likely get pulled in were relations to deteriorate). Moreover, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton hopes that Indo-Pak trade volume will be up so much that it will spill over onto Afghanistan and contribute to a “New Silk Road” into Central Asia and China. Afghanistan, otherwise resource-poor, could gain in prosperity from this trans-Asian trade, easing the US transition out of that country.

9. Rates of heart disease in the US have fallen significantly since 2005. Better cholesterol treatments and a slight decline in smoking may be among the causes.

10. American scientific and medical research is still world class, despite threatened federal and state cutbacks in support. US medical researchers at Cedars Sinai Medical Center in California have discovered that stem cells can be used effectively to repair hearts damaged by a heart attack. If the findings are true, they could lead to a revolution in medicine. Whether other major organs can be similarly repaired also needs investigation.

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Posted in US Politics | 9 Comments

Gingrich Urges War with Iran and Skyrocketing Oil Prices

Posted on 11/23/2011 by Juan

New Gingrich, sleep-walked into a declaration of war on Iran in last night’s Republican foreign policy debate. Here is the relevant exchange:

“BLITZER: The argument, Speaker Gingrich — and I know you’ve studied this, and I want you to weigh in — on the sanctioning of the Iranian Central Bank, because if you do that, for all practical purposes, it cuts off Iranian oil exports, 4 million barrels a day.

The Europeans get a lot of that oil. They think their economy, if the price of gasoline skyrocketed, which it would, would be disastrous. That’s why the pressure is on the U.S. to not impose those sanctions. What say you?

GINGRICH: Well, I say you — the question you just asked is perfect, because the fact is we ought to have a massive all-sources energy program in the United States designed to, once again, create a surplus of energy here, so we could say to the Europeans pretty cheerfully, that all the various sources of oil we have in the United States, we could literally replace the Iranian oil.

Now that’s how we won World War II.

(APPLAUSE)

GINGRICH: So, I think you put your finger, Wolf, on the — on the — you know, we all get sucked into these tactical discussions. We need a strategy of defeating and replacing the current Iranian regime with minimum use of force. We need a strategy, as Rick Santorum was saying, of being honest about radical Islam and designing a strategy to defeat it wherever it happens to exist.

We need a strategy in central Asia that recognizes that, frankly, if you’re Pashtun, you don’t care whether you’re in Pakistan or Afghanistan, because you have the same tribal relationships. So we need to be much more strategic and less tactical in our discussion.

But if we were serious, we could break the Iranian regime, I think, within a year, starting candidly with cutting off the gasoline supply to Iran, and then, frankly, sabotaging the only refinery they have. “

The new round of sanctions on Iran recently announced by the US, the UK and Canada have helped drive the price of Brent crude over $100 a barrel, and saber rattling toward that country is helping keep petroleum futures at historically high levels. Oil analysts typically dismiss the idea of a unilateral Israeli strike on Iran as a form of pressure on the West for stiffer sanctions. If they thought there was a serious prospect of such a strike, prices would move up substantially.

These high petroleum prices are hurting the European economies (most European countries import most or all of their oil) at a time when they are anyway in the doldrums. If you’re an American who commutes to work, they aren’t doing you any favors, either. Oil supplies are tight, and if the US and Israel really could succeed in taking the 2.3 million barrels a day that Iran exports off the world market, on top of the Libyan reductions, it would likely put the price up to more like $200 a barrel (i.e. for Americans $6-$7 a gallon for gasoline). Remember that Asian economies like India and China are growing rapidly, and demand for petroleum is actually increasing in Asia, which is also putting upward pressure on the price.

Petroleum is mostly used to fuel automobiles and trucks. Gingrich appears to assume that the United States has the capacity to increase its own petroleum production substantially, which is not true. Even if all the known reserves off the coasts in the lower 48 were developed, it probably wouldn’t amount to more than 400,000 barrels a day. Gingrich’s reference to the era of World War II, when Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma were the world’s swing oil producers, is ridiculous. North America only has 3% of the proven petroleum reserves in the world. The Perso-Arabian Gulf has roughly 63% of the known reserves. The US has increased, e.g., ethanol production (which threatens high food prices and world instability by taking corn off the food market), but it cannot hope to both replace Iranian production and meet increasing Asian demand with any known “all-energy” policy in the short to medium term. That is a science fiction scenario.

The US could move to solar, wind and geothermal electricity production and use electric cars, but it will take many years, and Gingrich says he is against that step.

So the United States cannot protect Europe from the spike in oil prices that would ensue from an even more muscular policy toward Iran. Indeed, the US cannot even protect itself from such consequences, which Gingrich would have noticed when he filled up his gas tank if he didn’t have his chauffeur take care of such tasks instead, having made himself filthy rich by influence peddling for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Gingrich’s prescription for dealing with Iran is K-r-aaaay-z-yyyy. He seems to be stuck with the propaganda talking points of two or three years ago, when Iran had temporary refinery capacity problems, leading to gasoline shortages. Iran launched a crash program to expand some refineries and open new ones, and is now more or less self-sufficient in gasoline. It is likely to be a major exporter of refined petroleum products, not just crude oil, in coming years.

So, blockading gasoline exports to Iran is no longer a plausible strategy.

As for “sabotaging” its “one refinery,” — this is fantasy. Iran has more than one refinery. The US doesn’t have the assets in Iran to conduct such extensive and massive “sabotage.” And, Iran could “sabotage” things right back. If he means bombing Iranian refineries from the air, that would be an act of war. It would in any case send the price of petroleum sky-rocketing because it would spook investors.

There are no Pushtuns in Iran or Central Asia, and Gingrich’s bizarre comments on Islam and Central Asia have nothing to do with Iran or its gasoline and petroleum production. Most post-Soviet Muslims in Central Asia are Tajiks or Turkic and are relatively secular.

As far as I can tell, Gingrich wants war with the whole Muslim world. Good luck with that.

In any case, Gingrich’s answer to Blitzer’s good question is a hodgepodge of power fantasies (he thinks the US can create fuel to replace Iranian production and meet rising Asian demand out of thin air) and little boy military daydreaming (“sabotaging” the alleged “one refinery”).

What his stated policies imply are 1) war with Iran and 2) astronomical petroleum prices.

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Posted in Iran, US Politics | 32 Comments

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