Is Lisa Murkowski on the way to writing herself back in to the U.S. Senate?

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Alaska shows Republican Joe Miller with 35% support and Murkowski, the incumbent senator he defeated in the state’s GOP Primary now running as a write-in candidate, with 34% of the vote. Democrat Scott McAdams runs third with 27%. One percent (1%) prefers another candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The race remains Solid Republican in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings because if Murkowski wins she is expected to caucus with the GOP in the Senate.

Less than a month ago, just after Murkowski kicked off her write-in campaign, Miller earned 42% support to her 27%, with McAdams at 25%.

Polling for write-in campaigns is always challenging, so results should be interpreted with caution. For this survey, Rasmussen Reports asked respondents about a choice between Miller and McAdams without mentioning Murkowski. That is the choice voters will see when they enter the voting booth. However, when response options were offered to survey respondents, Murkowski’s name was mentioned.

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Alaska was conducted on October 13, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Rasmussen Reports will release new numbers from Alaska’s gubernatorial race this weekend.

How certain are Murkowksi’s supporters that they’ll vote for her next month? How do voters in the state feel about congressional incumbents anyway? Become a Platinum member and find out.