Encouraging data from Pew.
Politics. Policy. Polling. Pop Culture.
Posted 2 weeks ago
1 Notes
Destined to Win, Doomed to Fail
I wrote a post late yesterday at Huffington Post Pollster offering a critical take on the cases both for Obama’s inevitable victory and inevitable loss next November.
Posted 2 weeks ago
Two weeks ago, I sat in the makeup chair over at Fox for the first time. I was on the “A-Team” for Lou Dobbs’ show, along with Alan Colmes and Monica Crowley. We talked Super Committee, government spending, and Newt Gingrich. Thanks for my friend JP for pulling the clip for me!
Posted 2 weeks ago
London Calling
In November, I was invited to be a guest on The World Tonight on BBC Radio 4, talking about Herman Cain. (Clip begins around 33 minutes.) This was, of course, pre-Ginger White. For some reason, my voice is nearly unrecognizable. I think I was trying not to slip into a Madonna/Britney Spears style faux British accent.
Posted 1 month ago
I got to join the crew at FoxNews.com LIVE on Wednesday to talk about Newt Gingrich and whether or not he can survive the bright spotlight that shines on the leader in the 2012 polls. Fun stuff! (I also was on Lou Dobbs Tonight on Fox Business last night, but alas, I can’t find video to embed.)
Posted 1 month ago
3 Notes
Photo by Herbie Knott, 1983, Margaret Thatcher at 10 Downing St.
The full-color version of this photo appears in this month’s Vanity Fair accompanying a lengthy piece about the life of Margaret Thatcher. I love so much about this photo. Curled up on a couch, reading a stack of papers, shoes on the floor. The best part? The briefcase is red.
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Margaret ThatcherPosted 4 months ago
A pundit should aspire to inspire in every viewer the thought: “I understand better now.” Not some partisan spin on an argument. Not some lawyer’s brief. Not some politician’s blather. Not some gadfly’s moment. But rather a deeper understanding of the nuances that live within all of the modern political and legal conflicts of our time. “I have just learned something I did not know about an issue about which I care.” That’s the response an analyst should shoot for.
A wise take on the world of punditry, from Andrew Cohen at the Atlantic.
Posted 4 months ago
SXSW Interactive 2011: Panel Picker Time!
One of the biggest, coolest conferences out there, South by Southwest is a multifaceted film/music/tech conference that takes over Austin, TX every spring. I’ve never been, but my first exposure to the conference came from a college TA who attended in 2004 who came back and told our class we all needed to listen to an up-and-coming band named Modest Mouse.
For the 2011 SXSW Interactive, I’ve been asked to join a panel moderated by Patrick Ruffini of Engage about how big data will play a major role in the 2012 presidential campaigns. I’ve long believed that data culled from online behavior and social media is going to be the wave of the future for pollsters. Also joining me on the panel will be GOP micro targeting rockstar Alex Lundry as well as Josh Hendler and Dan Siroker, online gurus from the other side of the aisle.
We need your help getting our panel selected! Please vote for our panel today! You don’t need to be attending/have attended SXSW and it will take 30 seconds.
Now, it may be unorthodox to simultaneously promote other competing panels, but I’m a firm believer in the win-win scenario, and if I get to go to SXSW, I absolutely want to hear from the following panel options. All moderated by or involving good friends, I’d encourage readers to cast a vote for these panels too!
“Government as a Catalyst: Prizes 4 Tech Innovation,” organized by Jenn Gustetic of Phase One Consulting Group, a longtime friend, fellow Gator, uber-genius and Gov 2.0 expert.
“Engaging Congress on Net Neutrality,” organized by POLITICO Pro’s Kim Hart Jonson, another longtime friend, fellow Gator, and sorority sister! She’s a rockstar and has been a top reporter on tech news and government for years.
“Social Media Drives Viewership: Maximizing Impact,” organized by Blip.tv’s Derek Dodge and featuring two buddies and social media heavyweights, United Talent Agency’s Eric Kuhn and Twitter’s Erica Anderson.
There appears to be no limit on the number of panels you can vote for, so please sign up and give these three worthy panels your vote as well!
Posted 4 months ago
Rick Perry: Niche or National Candidate?
My latest at Huffington Post Pollster is all about Rick Perry’s chances of winning the Presidency if he is the GOP nominee. I take a look at his exit polling numbers among key swing groups and compare them to John McCain’s in 2008 in Texas and to the House Republicans’ nationwide in 2010. The numbers are all remarkably similar, which to me indicates two things: 1)He runs about as well as an average Republican among swing voters, meaning he shouldn’t be counted out as a niche candidate outside the mainstream, yet 2)he needs to do better if he wants to have a chance at defeating President Obama in 2012.
Posted 4 months ago
Ultimately, this won’t be an election decided on personality; it will be an election decided on vision.
From my latest at the NYT “Room for Debate” on Rick Perry and the “Bush effect.”
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