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Asia Times Online is taking a
break. We wish all of our readers a prosperous New Year. We have given you
plenty of thought-provoking articles to keep you engaged until we next upload
on Tuesday, January 3.
Maybe
that war with China isn't so far off
The United States has the doctrine, the means and the motivation to make
mischief for China in 2012. In an unusually toxic election year, expect the US
to feed the "return to Asia" narrative with the specter of China as an arrogant
and destabilizing regional threat. That will make China leery and ready to
repel any sign that Washington may apply its "preventative diplomacy" doctrine
to cross red lines in Taiwan, Tibet and the South China Sea. Miscalculation on
either side could spark trouble. - Peter Lee (Dec
21, '11) |
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Israel
in the midst of the Arab winter
Despite inhabiting an island of relative economic and political calm as deadly
violence in Egypt and Syria sees a chill descend on the Arab Spring, many
Israelis predict perpetual war for generations to come. The Jewish state's
leadership recognizes that this year's growth of democracy among neighbors
potentially removes a barrier to peace, but in its deep-rooted suspicions of
Arab maneuvers and apathy towards conflict resolution, it is entirely
representative of the population as a whole.
- Victor Kotsev (Dec 21, '11)
Iran ends 2011 with a blaze of
intelligence
The detention of alleged Central Intelligence Agency spy Amir Hekmati marks the
latest notch in a raft of apparent counter-intelligence successes for Iran
against the backdrop of steadily deteriorating relations with Western powers.
Following on from the capture of an American "eye in the sky" drone, the arrest
adds to the credible picture of Iran as a major counter-espionage, electronic
and cyber-warfare hub. - Mahan Abedin (Dec
21, '11)
The life and death of American
drones
The crash of an American drone airplane is a game-changer. No, it wasn't the
super-secret RQ-170 Sentinel that ended up in the hands of the Iranians, but an
older Predator, that hunter-killer workhorse of the Afghan and Pakistan wars,
that fell in Kandahar in Afghanistan. The vulnerabilities of remotely piloted
missions are ever more regularly coming to light.
- Nick Turse (Dec 21, '11)
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US and Iran: From enemies to
partners
The United States and Iran are closer to the brink of a dangerous
confrontation, as a result of which it is fair to describe the situation as
"pre-war". One advantage of this potentially ruinous scenario is that it could
spur actions to sue for peace, if only the protagonists would realize the need
to create viable scenarios for this to happen.
- Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Dec 21, '11)
 THE
ROVING EYE
Playing chess in Eurasia
As Pipelineistan and hardcore geopolitics collide across Eurasia, China and
Russia are coordinating policy in fine detail. The trick is connecting China to
Central and South Asia and the Gulf, creating an economic/security powerhouse
that controls 50% of the world's gas reserves and undercuts the United States'
Empire of Bases. Old Europe wants in, but it may be locked out. The US,
meanwhile, is watching as its New Silk Road vision crumbles. - Pepe Escobar
(Dec 21, '11)
China struts ahead with swagger
China's leaders may be forgiven their swagger and new assertiveness, but
ultimately the country's social stability and the fate of its authoritarian
regime depend on a simple equation that amounts to an unspoken agreement
between the government and the people: high economic growth = social stability
+ support for the Communist Party. - Kent Ewing
(Dec 21, '11)
Hong Kong's unwanted Christmas
present
In 1941, Hong Kong's governor Sir Mark Young declared the then-British colony
well prepared to resist any attack. The fact that he was plain wrong will
resound in the minds of international veterans and Chinese civilians who
suffered at the hands of an Imperial Japanese force that 70 years ago this
Christmas took the colony after a lightning 17-day campaign.
- Ronan Thomas (Dec 21, '11) |
 ASIA
HAND
Southeast Asia-China
rise, fall together
Southeast Asia has benefited by piggybacking on the resilience of China, as
strong demand helped the region bounce back from the 2008-9 global financial
crisis. With China's immunity to global economic turmoil looking doubtful in
2012, the outlook for the region is darkening, and it will inevitably be among
the worst hit by any soft or hard landing in the world's second-largest
economy. - Shawn W Crispin (Dec 21, '11)
All roads lead to Myanmar
With Myanmar slowly opening up, Western countries that shunned the country for
decades are likely to stream in. In response, India, Singapore and Thailand can
be expected to step up their engagement to protect their influence. China,
which has invested huge amounts of capital and other resources, is unlikely to
watch passively as its presence is whittled away.
- Sudha Ramachandran (Dec 21, '11)
 BOOK
REVIEW
Angels and inquisitors
A Point in Time
by David Horowitz
For a quarter of a century, Horowitz has told unpleasant truths about the
political left where he spent the first half of his career before turning
conservative some 30 years ago. He surpasses himself in this new essay, though,
by telling unpleasant truths about the human condition. - David Goldman
(Dec 21, '11)
 BOOK
REVIEW
A future with China
China and the Credit Crisis: the Emergence
of a New World Order
by Giles Chance
The book explores the inter-connection between United States policy and China's
participation in globalization. The presentation on what the current economic
crisis means for the future of the US dollar and the necessary adjustment by
the world's financial and regulatory systems to incorporate China's needs are
balanced and satisfying. Yet the most important reason to read this work may be
what it has to offer about how these troubled times will reshape US-China
relations.
- Benjamin A Shobert (Dec 21, '11)
INTERVIEW
Getting the dragon onboard
The Chinese may have an attitude whereby they want to exploit the rest of the
world for their own benefit. They do not see themselves yet as a responsible
leader of the world economy. The issue is how can China be brought to stand
alongside Europe and America? So asks Giles Chance, author of China and the
Credit Crisis in a conversation with Benjamin A Shobert.
(Dec 21, '11)
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Cunning Kim confounds to the last
A perpetual source of consternation for both allies and adversaries in life,
now North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has in death complicated crucial political
junctures for the United States, South Korea and China, as well as potentially
sabotaging hopes of revived nuclear talks. Many who feared the Dear Leader's
appetite for destruction have woken up to a fragile, post-Kim world where the
threat seems many times greater. - Sunny Lee (Dec
20, '11)
 SINOGRAPH
And the winner is ...
Hu Jintao by
a shadow
It is almost sacrilegious to say it, but there is already a real winner of
Taiwan's presidential election - China's President Hu Jintao. No matter who is
elected the island's leader, it is impossible to escape the mainland's shadow.
A crowd of economic figures and links in travel and communications solidify
this reality. Political reunification is already underway. - Francesco Sisci
(Dec 20, '11)
TAIWAN GETS READY TO VOTE
Polls put DPP ahead in three-horse
race
The most reliable survey of Taiwanese voters puts anti-unification candidate
Tsai Ing-wen ahead of incumbent Ma Ying-jeou in the island's January 14
presidential and legislative elections. Beijing dreads a win for Tsai and her
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and has indicated it will hobble her
presidency. If votes for James Soong Chu-yu's People's First Party mean the DPP
fails to control parliament, the result will likely be a lame government
anyway. - Jens Kastner (Dec 20, '11)
The Kim is dead, long live the Kim!
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, whose death at 69 was officially announced on
Monday, had been expected to beat the United States to the punch with a
"moratorium" on missile and nuclear tests in exchange for US food aid. Now all
bets are off as North Korea goes into mourning for the man who was known as the
Dear Leader while ruling his starving people with an iron hand through 17 years
in power. - Donald Kirk (Dec 19, '11)
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 CHAN
AKYA
Year of
Dali
This year has been fraught with surprises, not so much on the scale of "how did
that happen?", but more "why couldn't they escape that?". Whether in the
travails of humanity in the face of natural disasters such as earthquakes and
floods, or the goings-on among financial assets and politicians, surrealism has
more than crept to the surface - it has usurped the entire proceedings.
(Dec 21, '11)
India: The mess of democracy
India's self-seeking and indecisive politicians will still not permit direct
overseas investment in the retail market - as if foreigners could do any more
damage than India's domestic retail giants. Meanwhile, poor infrastructure
wastes farm produce on a vast scale. No wonder foreign funds are quitting the
country.
- Swati Lodh (Dec 21, '11)
Middle East wealth
there for
the sharing
For a real "Arab Spring", all Mideast rulers must be shamed into acknowledging
that oil and gas are not theirs to plunder but belong to all their countries'
current and future citizens. All international institutions - especially the
International Monetary Fund and the World Bank - must support this fact and not
hide by labeling it a political matter.
- Hossein Askari (Dec 21, '11)
Azerbaijan - the crucible
for
Eurasia's energy brew
Azerbaijan is the crucible where Central Eurasia's energy geo-economics will be
resolved - whether Turkmenistan will join it in driving Euro-Caspian
consolidation is one vital element in the mix. As Turkey, China and others
circle, there is one certainty: Russia will continue to try to keep Europe
boxed in as its own private cash cow. - Robert M Cutler
(Dec 21, '11)
Back to the future
Forms of credit have altered through the centuries, adapting to (and in the
process changing) evolving economies. The problems of the 21st century cannot
be solved with 20th century solutions and the coming collapse of oil and other
commodity prices will help to usher in the next great credit transformation.
- Chris Cook (Dec 21, '11)
EUROZONE DEBT CRISIS, Part 5
Euro treaty reform
The agreement reached by Germany and France on reform of the 2009 Lisbon Treaty
would give the European Commission new powers to impose austerity on eurozone
member states. The irony is that within three years of the euro becoming common
currency for 17 countries, Germany and France had been the first to violate
"stability and growth" criteria. - Henry C K Liu
(Dec 21, '11)
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