No matter what happens tonight in the Iowa caucus, a week from now it will be all about Mitt Romney. After Iowa comes the New Hampshire primary and the winner there is now practically a foregone conclusion. According to Suffolk New Hampshire tracking polling Romney currently has more than twice as much support as anything other candidate. This is basically the same massive head Romney has held for months. From Suffolk:

The poll shows Romney leading with 43 percent of the vote – up 2 points from a day earlier, followed by Ron Paul (17 percent), Jon Huntsman (9 percent), and Newt Gingrich (8 percent), while another 7 percent was split among GOP hopefuls Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum and Rick Perry. Fifteen percent remain undecided.

In addition, Romney’s support in New Hamshire is very firm. According to the poll 73 percent of his supporters say they are unlikely to change their minds.  Unless there is a major scandal Romney is likely to hold his large share of the vote, while Ron Paul is also guaranteed to at least get a significant percentage from his devoted base.

What this means is that even if a single candidate (like Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich or Rick Perry) managed to gather the support of all the other remaining candidates and win over the vast majority of the undecideds, they would still come short of beating Romney in New Hampshire.

Don’t be surprised if the media starts turning its attention to South Carolina rather quickly after Iowa, because there is so little suspense about how completely Romney will dominate New Hampshire.

Finally, after a very long campaign defined by too many debates, an endless parade of short lived surges to first place and frankly some incredible silliness combined with SuperPAC negative ads, people will actually start voting in Iowa on who will become the Republican party’s presidential nominee.

The Iowa caucus will start at 7 pm Central (8 pm Eastern).  After some brief party business and statements from the campaigns the voting will commence. We should expect information from the media entrance polling fairly soon after the caucus begins and official results probably within a few hours.

The Predictions

The current projections are that Mitt Romney will win narrowly, but his lead is tenuous. The Real Clear Politics average for the final stretch of polling is:

Mitt Romney 22.8
Ron Paul 21.5
Rick Santorum 16.3
Newt Gingrich 13.7
Rick Perry 11.5
Michele Bachmann 6.8
Jon Huntsman 2.3

Nate Silver at the New York Times predicts that Santorum will do slightly better than the polling average would indicate. His final projections are:

Mitt Romney 21.8
Ron Paul 21.0
Rick Santorum 19.3
Newt Gingrich 15.1
Rick Perry 10.4
Michele Bachmann 7.9
Jon Huntsman 3.8

The Wild Card Factors

Probably the two biggest wild cards are turnout and whether Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry are able to hold their support. It is possible some of their socially conservative supporters might at the last minute move strategically to Santorum, because they see his momentum making him the strongest anti-Romney.

Similarly it is possible the Paul campaign could bring in a significant number of new, unlikely caucus voters tipping the balance for him. It is possible a large number of anti-war and/or anti-drug war independents will choose to show up at the caucus, change their registration to GOP, and vote for Paul. With overall turnout likely to be about only 130,000, as little as a few hundred votes could make a difference.

I will be live blogging the caucus tonight. Please include your personal predictions for tonight in the comment section.

Update – Programing note, Eli will be live blogging the caucus instead of me.

Despite the media talking up Rick Santorum’s rising numbers in Iowa over the past few days, all the public polling still has Mitt Romney and Ron Paul in the top two spots, with only one day until the Iowa Caucus.

The Des Moines Register poll found:

Mitt Romney…….. 24
Ron Paul…………. 22
Rick Santorum….. 15
Newt Gingrich…… 12
Rick Perry………… 11
Michele Bachmann… 7
Jon Huntsman…….. 2
Other (VOL and specify:) -
Not sure………….. 7

From PPP poll:

Ron Paul is at 20%
Mitt Romney at 19%
Rick Santorum at 18%
Newt Gingrich at 14%
Rick Perry at 10%
Michele Bachmann at 8%
Jon Huntsman at 4%
Buddy Roemer at 2%.

From Insider Advantage:

Mitt Romney…….. 22.7
Ron Paul………….. 22.4
Rick Santorum…… 18.0
Newt Gingrich……. 16.1
Rick Perry…………. 9.6
Michele Bachmann… 5.8
Jon Huntsman…….. 1.8
Someone else…….. 1.3
No opinion………… 2.3

Given the small and often unusual turnout,  the Iowa caucus can be a hard event to poll accurately.  So it is conceivable that any of the top three or four candidates could end up winning, though Santorum has been rising while Gingrich has been falling. That said, the most likely outcome is that the public polling proves reliable and the top two spots are won by Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.