Meet the Mets

Well, everyone: HE DID IT! Robert Allen Dickey and crew reached the summit of Mount Kilimanjaro yesterday. As usual, his description of the latest part of the journey is top notch, but the one thing I found interesting in it was that one of the porters climbing the mountain is named "Timo". So I guess that's where Timo Perez has been all these years!

David Wright had his second annual Vegas Night on Friday night and answered some questions about his offseason training, his thoughts on the team and what he thinks his legacy is. TRAID.

MLB.com has a two and a half minute video interview with Mets' top prospect Matt Harvey, in which he talks about his 2011 season, the ups and downs of Double A and the experience of closing out last year's Futures Game. Meanwhile, Seedlings to Stars posted the NL East edition of their Top 100 Prospect Snubs and the Mets had a pair of prospects who barely missed out on making it.

Over at the Daily News, they took a look at the 1962 Mets in order to see the similarities between today's squad. I realize that some people like to be overly dramatic, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Mets will not be losing 100 games in 2012, let alone anywhere close to 120.

In case you haven't heard about this, Hofstra University will be holding a three-day conference to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the Mets in late April. There will be presentations about the team's history and some current and former members of the organization will be in attendance.

Around the Majors

Adam Wainwright looks to be on track to return from the Tommy John surgery that cost him the entire 2011 season.

With news that the Rangers met with Prince Fielder coming out yesterday, the Nationals also continue to stay in the running, though they say that they will not give the first baseman a 10 year deal like Albert Pujols got.

The Red Sox say that they're not worried about the Yankees' Friday night moves. Hate to say it but I think they should be.

Dave Cameron tried to debunk some talking points regarding Michael Pineda by looking further into his lefty/righty splits.

Finally, the Phillies agreed to a $3.6 million deal with righty Kyle Kendrick to avoid arbitration. It's not a particularly noteworthy announcement but it's still a good chunk of money for a guy who's basically a replacement level swingman. So, in essence: LOL. Hey, don't judge me. I've got to laugh at something these days.

As you may have noticed, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus released his Mets top 20 prospect rankings earlier this week. There are a lot of new rankings floating around right now but Goldstein's are one of a small handful that I actively take note of and encourage others looking for a good perspective on the system to consider each year.

Aside from knowing his sh*t, Goldstein has a couple of things going for him that most prospect watchers -- and creators of Mets prospect rankings -- do not: It sounds silly but he has actually prospect-watched; meaning he's seen many, if not most of these players play. Call me old fashioned, but I like that. Also, he has no problem bucking the trends with his picks, which is saying something in the current tide of largely cookie cutter rankings.

See his Mets rankings below:

System In 20 Words Or Less: With improvement coming via all three areas—draft, trades, international—the Mets are finally moving in the right direction.

Five-Star Prospects
1. Matt Harvey, RHP
2. Zack Wheeler, RHP
Four-Star Prospects
3. Jeurys Familia, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
4. Brandon Nimmo, OF
5. Juan Lagares, OF
6. Jordany Valdespin, 2B
7. Jenrry Mejia, RHP
8. Reese Havens, 2B
9. Cesar Puello, OF
10. Michael Fulmer, RHP
11. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF

He'd go on to round out the top 20 by making a few more interesting picks such as Wilmer Flores dropping down to no. 16 behind AA favorite Darin Gorski at no. 14 and including low ceiling September call-up Chris Schwinden in the final spot.

Some random reactions:

• It seems that most of the top sources give Harvey the edge over Wheeler and I'm with them there, though I really can't fault anyone for going with the newcomer.
• I appreciated the aggressive placements of Valdespin and Lagares. On most of the 2012 lists out so far (Mets Fever gives you a nice little scoreboard here) you'll typically find both of these guys anywhere from the teens to outside of the top 20 entirely. Both players are certainly flawed, but at a certain point performance -- especially at a high level of the minors -- has to count for something, and in my book that something is pretty substantial.
• Also appreciated the fact that while he penalized Mejia for the TJ surgery -- as he described in a subsequent Q&A with Toby Hyde -- he wasn't too heavy-handed in doing so with a guy that has arguably had the most success at the highest levels of any pitcher in the system. And his stuff ain't too shabby either...
• Goldstein also isn't quite riding the recent wave of love for Cesar Puello; many other sources have him within the top five if not higher. He's even less impressed with the rest of the youthful trio in Flores and Marte. I know that Flores actually wasn't awful in 2011 if you look hard enough but at some point he's got to give us a reason to get excited -- at least if he's going to hang around the top ten -- and IMO he hasn't done that since '09; maybe I'm being overly gun-shy but smells a little too much like FMart.
  
• I must say I do have a lot more love for Capt. Kirk, though I'm willing to accept that I'm in the minority on that. The bulk of his value proposition revolves around the ability to play center and having watched a lot of him in Buffalo I'm not ready to cede that one.

All in all, it's an interesting list. He definitely didn't give us the same old boilerplate Mets ranking that you might see in other places. There are some major variations here. However, he's in luck because when measured against my recently completed ranking* it turns out that he's not far off the mark!

The reason I typically like Goldstein's rankings though is because he always seems to strike a nice balance between the analytical side and the more subjective approach. Meaning stats vs. scouting. I look at ranking prospects as a sort of philosophical exercise, so really nobody is wrong it's just about what's important to you.

However, I will point out that I appreciate that he does not often fall into the trap of youth. By that I mean the tendency to overvalue the unknown. This is something you see all throughout the world of prospect rankings, year after year and it bugs me. In a way I think we overrate the young players because they've yet to show us their failings, and we prefer that fantasy of a flawless prospect to the guys who may be higher though better competition has clearly pointed out their flaws.

That's why it's so common to see someone like FMart or Flores begin their prospect career at the very top of rankings and seemingly each year they drop a few spots, even as they get closer to the majors. This means someone like Juan Urbina, Aderlin Rodriguez, any of those guys who look great in Rookie-ball that we hope will remain as flawless as they climb. Yet that's almost never happened, and to rank based on those hopes -- and in doing so overlooking the importance of performance in the high minors -- isn't really realistic. Yet we pretty much all do it.

But that's just my nonsensical ramblings coming through again. Your thoughts?

*To Chris' point from his announcement yesterday, in the absence of the Annual expect to see the aforementioned Top 50 ranking here online starting next week, chock full of all the analysis and insight you've come to know and love in the AAA.

Meet the Mets

Mike Pelfrey, Andres Torres, Ramon Ramirez and Manny Acosta all filed for arbitration on Friday. The Mets will try to reach a contract agreement with each of them over the next few weeks but if the two sides don't come to an agreement, a panel will decide the player's one year salary. Ted Berg took a look at Pelfrey and wonders whether it's fair to call him a disappointment.

Johan Santana has been rehabbing in Port St. Lucie for three weeks now but in an interview, he stated that he's unsure of his status for Opening Day. Although he's offering no promises, he did say his shoulder feels fine, which leads me to believe that he's just being cautious in his expectations. Or at least, that's what I'm tricking myself to believe at this point. Denial is a very powerful tool.

Speaking of denial, Fred Wilpon spoke with both Newsday and the Wall Street Journal at the Owners' Meetings and he had some...well...interesting things to say. Of course, he wants to keep the team and he thinks that they'll be fine in the long run. Okay, Fred. Whatever you say.

David Wright was a guest on Cliff Floyd's SiriusXM radio show and spoke about the potential of trade talk surrounding him and his expectations for the team in 2012.

Rising Apple took a look at what needs to go wrong with the other teams in the NL East in order for the Mets to contend. Hey...if I learned anything from Angels in the Outfield, I learned that "it could happen". Now where's Christopher Lloyd when you need him?

Finally, Toby, Ted and Patrick released their first Mostly Mets podcast of 2012 and they talk about exciting topics like the signings of Scott Hairston, Ronny Cedeno and Miguel Batista! They also welcome Amazin' Avenue's own Eno Sarris, who talks about the team's finances and the possible ramifications of their partnership with CRG.

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I've been a writer at Amazin' Avenue for a little over a year now, which still seems a little hard to believe. I officially came on board at the conclusion of the 2010 season, just in the nick of time to participate in the 2011 Amazin' Avenue Annual. Participating in the creation of that book, even in a relatively minor role, was an awesome experience. The fact that the book had chapters from writers like Joe Posnanski and was on real-life shelves at Barnes & Noble was something that I hadn't thought I would get to do in writing about baseball.

In case you missed it, there will be no 2012 version of the book, but as Eric points out in the announcement, our creation of content will be focused on this website. My contributions last year consisted mainly of writing a good portion of the player profiles, each of which contained some background on each player on the roster, what he did last year, and what might be expected of him this year. I also compiled some data of interest and turned it over to the great Justin Bopp of Beyond the Box Score, who turned that data into a visually-appealing graph for each profile.

Beginning next week, I'll start a series of player profiles leading up to spring training. What's great about the profiles is that their format from the book translates very easily to the web. I'll attempt to cover each player on the twenty-five man roster, and if that goes according to plan over the next few weeks, the last one should appear right around the time that spring training is getting underway.

I can't promise that the series will end up as well as it did in the book, but after getting the opportunity to write here and take part in that project last year, the least I can do is continue that work here on the website.

R.A. Dickey has been all throughout the news of late. HIs amazing journey to the top of Mount Kilimanjaro is an unprecedented feat in the world of sports. Dickey, with his charismatic personality and humorous qualities has captivated Mets fans. What is not as often discussed about is the underground club that Dickey, himself, inspired: The Extraordinary Knuckleballers Club. The true purpose of the group is still unknown; the members, however, consist of some of the most wise, extraordinary knuckleballers in the world.

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