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    Into the Cyclone

    There are signs this morning that the Romney campaign is prepping supporters for a loss in South Carolina tomorrow night. The upside -- or what people think is the upside -- for Romney is his continuing strength nationally. Indeed, the big news of the last couple weeks was that Romney finally seemed to be breaking out of the sub-30 box he'd languished in for so long. But the latest polls show the national primary electorate just as fluid as it was. Frank Newport of Gallup -- usually your classic hyper-cautious poll analyst -- talked about Romney's numbers "collapsing" nationwide. I'm not sure I would have used quite that word. But big picture, he's right. Look at these numbers.

    Josh Marshall
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    Love Stuff Like This

    Scientists stumble across monkeys in Indonesia long thought to be extinct and manage to capture rare photos of them.

    David Kurtz
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    Obama Sings Al Green

    I didn't know tonight would end with me watching video of President Obama singing Al Green's 'Let's Stay Together'. But it did. Watch here.

    Josh Marshall

    Initial Reax

    I think Newt Gingrich did very well tonight. I think he knows it. He's right. I've heard a number of people say that Rick Santorum had a really strong debate too and even that he 'won' the debate. Indeed, Santorum was basically more on his game than I think I've ever heard him. He had a really good debate. I think Newt did better. But here's the key: Gingrich is in a position to capitalize in a big way on a strong debate performance. I don't think Santorum is. So it all comes down to a very strong performance by Newt -- one I think will likely clinch a win for him on Saturday night, notwithstanding the tell-all interview coming later tonight.

    Read More →
    Josh Marshall

    The Meltdown

    Video of Mitt's epic tax return meltdown. Watch.

    Josh Marshall
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    Debate Live-Blogging Pt. #3

    9:02 PM: That was such a bad answer for Romney. Basically, Heck, I'm not going to release them now because then Obama's going to totally go town on me.

    9:04 PM: God, when did John King become an Aztec priest doing human ritual sacrifice. Live on TV.

    9:05 PM: I feel like I need to read the transcript of what Mitt just said about his taxes but I think I'm going to need to get stoned first.

    9:27 PM: I'm sort of amazed how on Gingrich has been in this debate. He's made Romney look like a bystander. Except in the portion where Romney dominated the stage with his epic tax return release meltdown.

    Josh Marshall

    Debate Live-Blogging Pt. #2

    8:54 PM: I gotta say Newt is more on his game tonight than maybe I've ever seen him. Undeniable. And then after I say that, Santorum comes out of an amazing retort. I mean, house banking scandal? Haven't heard about that in like 20 years. They're both on fire. Romney's like a bystander.

    8:57 PM: Did Mitt just have a Rick Perry moment there?

    Josh Marshall

    Quick Reax

    A quick read on where we are so far.

    I think Newt basically won this debate and maybe the primary with the opening fusilade against John King about the Marianne tell-all interview. Shameless, hubris, chutzpah, whatever. It was pitch perfect for his intended audience. He took control of the debate and drew down all the tension about when the debate would turn to the open marriage stuff.

    A short time later his campaign released his tax returns. Another little ambush set there for Newt.

    Mitt's done fine. But he's felt like a bystander so far to me in this debate. That's fine when he's ahead. But he needs to shake things up, upset Newt's momentum. And he hasn't. Not even close.

    Josh Marshall

    Debate Live-Blogging Pt. #1

    8:06 PM: We'll have moment by moment debate updates and video clips here.

    8:07 PM: Smart of Santorum to stamp the word "victory" about Iowa. It really gets under Mitt's skin.

    8:09 PM: Standing O suggests more support for open marriage in South Carolina than I'd imagined.

    8:10 PM: For Newt's intended audience, he nailed this answer. Shameless. But bullseye. Classic Newt. Enemy is the media, the MSM.

    8:18 PM: Listening to Romney right now. He doesn't have the tenor for this debate. Newt's set the tone which is fire-breathing and intense. That's not Mitt.

    8:22 PM: Not that he's not trying: "Shove it down [Obama's] throat"? Really? It ain't him. "I know we're going to get it hard from president obama but we'll stuff it down his throat and find out it is capitalism and freedom that makes america strong."

    8:30 PM: Such a weak field they're making Newt look brilliant.

    8:31 PM: Here's why it won't be nearly as easy as Mitt claims to get rid of "Obamacare". Really good piece. Give it a read.

    8:36 PM: Santorum's sort of attacking Newt too on personal mandates. But it kind of doesn't matter. This hurts Mitt a lot more. Gingrich is off doing something else. This doesn't let Mitt regroup and go on the offensive.

    8:43 PM: Wow. Ron Paul thinks no one had trouble getting health care treatment in the early 60s before Medicare/Medicaid.

    Josh Marshall

    GOP Debate Tonight

    We've had like a million debates this year. But it's no hyperbole to say that we haven't had one so far with anything like the amount of news that's happened over the last 48 hours. For a handful of reasons it now looks very possible that Newt Gingrich could win the South Carolina primary on Saturday.

    With all that on the line, the candidates meet tonight at 8 PM for yet another debate. Join us right here. We'll be covering it live.

    Josh Marshall

    Most Recent Latest news stories from TPM reporters

    TPM2012

    Stephen Colbert Talks 'Open Marriages' On Morning Joe

    The line between Stephen Colbert the late-night comedian and Colbert the pseudo-presidential candidate got a bit blurrier Friday on MSNBC's Morning Joe. Colbert stopped by the early morning news show's South Carolina set to offer praise to Herman Cain -- Colbert's "main man with the tax plan" -- and talk about his exploratory committee for president of the "United States of South Carolina." Colbert slipped in and out of character. At one point he praised "open marriages" a la Newt Gingrich's ex-wife's...
    Muckraker

    Supreme Court Tosses Out Court Drawn Texas Redistricting Maps

    The Supreme Court on Friday tossed out an interim Texas redistricting map drawn by a federal court, handing a partial victory to Republicans in Texas. The decision on whether the maps are discriminatory or if they should be precleared under Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act is still up to a separate panel of judges in federal court in D.C. "Speaking non-technically, the Supreme Court held that the three-judge court erred in starting its redistricting plan from scratch," law professor Rick Hasen...
    Muckraker

    Kansas GOPer: I Didn't Mean Obama Should Die When I E-Mailed 'Let His Days Be Few And Brief'

    The Kansas Speaker of the House has apologized for an e-mail in which he prayed about President Obama, "let his days be few and brief," but insisted that he wasn't calling for him to die. Mike O'Neal (R) had sent the e-mail to House Republicans citing Psalm 109:8, which says, "Let his days be few and brief; and let others step forward to replace him," the Lawrence Journal-World reported. The email said: "At last -- I can honestly voice a Biblical prayer for our president! Look it up -- it is word for...
    IdeaLab

    Senator Reid Postpones PIPA Vote

    Updated 11:10 am ET, Friday, January 20 Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) on Friday morning announced that he would be postponing a vote on the much-criticized PROTECT IP Act (PIPA) that had originally been scheduled for Tuesday, January 24, handing opponents of the anti-piracy bill their biggest victory yet. Reid's statement also attempted to provide a face-saving way of letting down PIPA's sponsor Sen. Pat Leahy (D-VT). As Reid's statement reads in full:
    TPM2012

    Colbert: Mitt's Iowa Win, Loss A 'Classic Romney Flip-Flop'

    Stephen Colbert on Thursday turned his attention to the GOP's rough waters ahead of this weekend's South Carolina primary. Rick Perry dropped out of the race to become more leathery. A photo of Rick Santorum sharing a couch with a man surfaced after the former senator claimed he only sits with his wife. And Mitt Romney actually lost Iowa to Santorum. "First Mitt won Iowa, then he lost Iowa? It's a classic Romney flip-flop," Colbert said.
    TPM2012

    Jon Stewart: 'Can Newt Gingrich Be Reclassified As A Pollutant?'

    Thursday was a big day for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Late that morning, Rick Perry dropped out of the presidential race and offered Gingrich his endorsement. And just minutes later, the cable news networks pivoted to a tell-all interview with Marianne Gingrich, Newt's second wife. "Yes, Rick Perry's endorsement of Newt Gingrich gave the former Speaker a three-minute respite from the news that Gingrich's ex wife was about to go divorce court on his ass," Stewart said Thursday.
    TPM2012

    Today On The Trail: January 20, 2012

    The South Carolina Primary is a day away. Here are the 10 things you need to know. Romney falters in South Carolina debate: There's no way around it -- former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney had a horrible night in the last debate before Saturday's South Carolina primary, flubbing multiple answers about his own personal wealth and essentially giving boiler plate answers to the rest of the questions. We have video of his rambling answer on whether he'd release his tax returns here (after which he was...
    Muckraker

    Meet The Accused Child Rapist Who Worked With The Feds Against The Senior Citizen Militia Members

    We've told you all about the four senior citizen militia members from Georgia who allegedly plotted an attack against federal employees. The members of the "covert group," -- who range from 65 to 73 -- were allegedly at least partially inspired by a book by a right-wing blogger and plotted to attack government employees with a deadly toxin ricin. But their age, various health problems and their apparent lack of ability to actually pull off the plot has raised questions about how big of a threat they by...
    TPM2012

    Conservatives Freak Out Over Romney's Kryptonite: Money

    Sometimes Mitt Romney can seem like Superman versus the rest of the GOP field, more powerful than a locomotive against President Obama, able to leap fundraising targets in a single bound. But like the Man of Steel, he has a glaring weakness that instantly negates his abilities on contact. It's green, hard to come by, and his opponents are always plotting new schemes to use it against him. No, not Kryptonite -- money. In Thursday's debate he awkwardly stumbled over questions about his tax returns, at...
    TPMDC

    Tenth Amendment Zealots Block GOP's Medical Malpractice Reform

    Whatever happened to medical malpractice reform? The cause has long been a high priority for Republicans, yet legislation on the issue hasn't even made it to the floor of a GOP-dominated House in over a year. What gives? It's not for a lack of effort. The answer is that states' rights advocates within the House GOP caucus have split from top Republicans on the lynchpin issue of whether the federal government should limit the amount that malpractice victims can sue doctors in a particular case, forcing...
    TPM2012

    Marianne Gingrich: Newt Told Me Callista Would Help Him Become President

    By the time Newt Gingrich's ex-wife Marianne's tell-all interview aired on ABC News, the damage -- if there was going to be any -- was already done. The former House Speaker's former wife told ABC News that Newt Gingrich asked her for an "open marriage" and told her that his mistress and current wife Callista was going to help him become president one day. "It didn't look like help to me," Marianne said of Callista. Marianne Gingrich told ABC News' Brian Ross that Newt Gingrich cheated on her with...
    TPM2012

    Mitt Romney's Very Bad Night In Charleston

    NORTH CHARLESTON, SC -- The Mitt Romney who vanquished Rick Perry and swatted away other frontrunners like flies did not show up on the debate stage here Thursday night. Instead, viewers of the final candidate forum before the Jan. 21 South Carolina primary watched Romney stumble through question after question about his tax returns and wealth. Romney was defensive and all over the place, about as far as one can imagine from the poised candidate that destroyed Rick Perry.
    TPM2012

    Romney's Plan For Health Care: Less Amtrak, More Free Market

    On stage for the final debate before the South Carolina primary Thursday, Mitt Romney gave one of his longest and most detailed answers about how he'd seek to repeal the health care law, and how he'd replace it. On the first point, Romney acknowledged that full repeal is at best an incredibly difficult proposition. "The executive order is a beginning process. It's one thing," Romney said, referring once again to his promise to use executive power to take the law on once elected. "But it doesn't...
    TPM2012

    Mitt Romney Booed After Dodging On Tax Return Answer

    Mitt Romney said in Thursday's debate that he would release his taxes for the last year and "probably for other years as well," but only after he secured the Republican nomination. According to Romney, his taxes "are carefully managed," and will show "I pay a lot of taxes, I've been very successful." Romney has said in the past he would eventually release his tax returns, setting April as a target, but has been vague beyond that and Democrats have relentlessly attacked him in recent days to come...
    IdeaLab

    DOJ Treating Apparent Anonymous Attack In Wake Of MegaUpload Shutdown As A 'Malicious Act'

    The Justice Department is treating an apparent distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack on its website by the group Anonymous in the wake of the arrest of employees of the file-sharing website MegaUpload.com as a "malicious act," a DOJ spokeswoman said in a statement. "The Department of Justice web server hosting justice.gov is currently experiencing a significant increase in activity, resulting in a degradation in service," a DOJ spokeswoman said in a statement to TPM. "The Department is working to...
    TPM2012

    Newt: CNN 'Despicable' To Bring Up 'Trash' Open Marriage Story

    CNN wasted no time in asking Newt Gingrich the burning question of the day: did he, as his wife claims in interviews, ask for an open marriage so he could carry on his affair with then-mistress Callista Gingrich? Gingrich wasted no time in slamming the media every which way for asking. "No," he said when asked if he wanted to address the issue. The audience burst into wild applause at his response. "I think the destructive, vicious, negative nature of much of the news media makes it harder to govern...
    TPM2012

    Day In 100 Seconds: Oops Day

    National Popcorn Day saw stories popping off left and right on a busy day for the US political scene. We bade a fond farewell to the gun-totin' governor from Texas, but not before some big news broke from Iowa. A second look at the numbers (taking in to account some that are missing and some that have re-appeared) actually made Rick Santorum the victor and tarnished Mitt Romney's 100% record. Still, Fox's Bret Baier had some sage words that certainly seemed to sum up the occasion...
    TPM2012

    The Second Wave: Newt Surges In South Carolina...Again

    Updated: January 20, 9:48 A.M. The day after the New Hampshire primary, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was riding high, becoming the first Republican candidate to win both the Iowa caucuses and the Granite State. In the days after, he saw an immediate boost in the South Carolina polls, making it look fairly secure that he was going to secure the GOP nomination for president. And then it all came crashing down. Over last weekend, Romney had expanded to a ten point lead in South Carolina. He was ...
    IdeaLab

    Anonymous Claims Retaliation Attacks On DOJ, RIAA, Universal After MegaUpload Bust

    Updated 6:57 pm ET, Thursday, December 19 For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. That seems to be the maxim of the shady online hacktivisit collective Anonymous at least, as several Twitter accounts that identified themselves as members of the loose-knit hacker group on Thursday boasted of taking down the websites of the U.S. Justice Department, the Recording Industry Association of America and Universal Music in retaliation for the U.S. government shutting down MegaUpload.com and...
    TPM2012

    Romney Camp Rolling Out Another Anti-Newt Call -- With Post-Newt House GOPers

    The Romney campaign is holding another conference call with reporters Friday, featuring Republican members of Congress who will lambast Newt Gingrich's leadership record. But they've picked some interesting names for it. The Romney camp's press release announces: "On Friday, Congressmen Jeff Flake, Jason Chaffetz, and John Campbell will hold a press conference call to discuss Speaker Newt Gingrich's record as an unreliable leader." However, none of these three men were in the House yet when Gingrich...

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