Reason Magazine

2012 Election Match Up: Romney Wins, Paul Might

Posted on January 13, 2012, 3:41PM | Emily Ekins

According to a recent CBS News Poll Romney would beat Obama in a hypothetical presidential election match up with 47 percent to Obama’s 45 percent. Yet, these numbers are still within the poll’s margin of error. Also, the poll found that Ron Paul would garner 45 percent of the vote to Obama’s 46 percent, also within the margin of error. Part of Romney and Paul’s relative success compared to other GOP candidates like Santorum, Gingrich, and Perry, is that both Romney and Paul receive nearly half the Independent vote. In a hypothetical match up, Paul would garner 47 percent of the Independent vote compared to Obama’s 40 percent. Likewise, Romney would receive 45 percent of the Independent vote compared to Obama’s 39.

These numbers are crucial to campaign strategy, as Independent voters play a significant role in determining the selection of president. In 2008 Obama won over Independent voters. Today, Obama would lose the Independent vote to Romney and Paul. 

Full poll results can be found here.

The CBS news poll was conducted by telephone from January 4-8, 2012 among 1,413 adults nationwide, including 1,247 interviews were conducted with registered voters. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three points. The error for subgroups may be higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

Follow Emily Ekins on Twitter @emilyekins

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The Big Mo: Ron Paul Skyrockets in South Carolina While Rick Santorum Plummets

Posted on January 13, 2012, 3:17PM | Emily Ekins

Apparently the political science concept of “Big Mo,” or the concept of big momentum pushing candidates who win early caucuses and primaries ahead in subsequent primary and caucus states’ polls, applies to Ron Paul as well.

As the Hill reports, the American Research Group released its most recent poll of likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina showing Ron Paul skyrocketing from 9 percent to 20 percent in today’s latest poll.

Paul’s previous 9 percent number comes from a poll conducted just a few days earlier, on Jan 4-5. However, after Jan 10th’s New Hampshire primary and Ron Paul’s strong 2nd place finish, this poll finds his support significantly raised to 20 percent. Romney placed first at 29 percent and Gingrich second at 25 percent.

Big Mo can also have the reversed effect for candidates underperforming. For instance, despite Rick Santorum’s surprise near-win in Iowa, Santorum significantly underperformed in New Hampshire, coming in a distant fifth at 8 percent. Likely as a consequence, the ARG poll finds his numbers plummeting from 24 percent in the Jan 4-5 poll to merely 7 percent by Jan 11-12.

American Research Group Poll of Likely South Carolina GOP Primary Voters

 

Source: American Research Group poll of South Carolina likely GOP primary voters. Click here for full methodology.

Follow Emily Ekins on Twitter @emilyekins

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Ron Paul Rising: Evidence from National Polls on Ron Paul’s Supporters

Posted on January 13, 2012, 11:35AM | Emily Ekins

On Tuesday, Ron Paul shocked the nation with a strong second place finish in the New Hampshireprimary.

Amidst the ephemeral rise and fall of most of the GOP field (Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum) Ron Paul has found a steady and consistent rise in the polls. In effect, the once-considered-fringe candidate has vaulted into the GOP top tier.

Data collected from Real Clear Politics demonstrates Paul’s steady rise in the polls from 2009 through 2011. By December 2011 there is a steep increase in support for Paul, likely as Iowa caucus pollsshowed him coming in first. Although Paul was a few percentage points shy of winning the Iowa caucus on Jan 2, Americans have begun to view Paul as an electable candidate.

 

Who Are Ron Paul Supporters?

A natural question is to ask who are Ron Paul’s supporters and what distinguishes them from other voters. Entrance/Exit poll data from the Iowa Caucuses, the New Hampshire primary, and data from two Reason-Rupe Polls help illuminate common characteristics of Paul supporters.

Iowa

Ron Paul overwhelming won the youth vote, and by youth I mean he received more votes from Iowa voters 40 years and younger than any other candidate. Fifty percent of 17-24 year olds, 45 percent of 25-29 year olds, and 34 percent of 30-39 year olds. (More on the youth vote here.) Problematically for the Paul campaign, voters under 40 years old made up only 25 percent of the Iowa vote, while voters 65 and older made up another 26 percent of the vote, and the plurality of those older voters went to Romney at 33 percent, Santorum at 20 percent, Gingrich at 17 percent, and to Paul at 11 percent.

Paul tied with Romney and Santorum for 25 percent each of college graduates, and Paul’s support is fairly evenly distributed among all educational levels. Paul won the vote among those making less than $50,000 a year, likely a product of his popularity among younger Americans.

Paul also tied with Romney for winning the urban vote, more than a quarter each respectively. Romney then largely won the suburban vote, and Santorum won the rural vote.

Paul won the vote among those who have never before attended a GOP caucus, in fact, a third of these new attendees cast their votes for Paul. In contrast, nearly a third of those who have previously attended the GOP caucuses voted for Romney.

Paul won the Independent vote by a wide margin, with 43 percent of Independents voting for Paul. Twenty nine percent and 27 percent of Republicans voted for Santorum and Romney, respectively, compared to 14 percent for Paul. Paul also won the moderate vote with 40 percent and Romney closely followed with 35 percent.

Despite assertions that Paul is the father of the modern day Tea Party movement, Tea Partiers in Iowa largely went for Santorum. Nevertheless, this doesn’t mean that Paul did not receive a significant share of Tea Party supporters: Roughly 20 percent of Tea Party supporters voted for Paul. This coincides with what my colleague David Kirby and I have found in our research of the Tea Party movement: There are both libertarian-leaning and socially conservative wings to the Tea Party.

Among those whose primary concern is the budget deficit, Paul won with 28 percent. Among those where abortion was the primary concern, Santorum won with 58 percent.

In terms of candidate qualities, Paul won among those who believe that the GOP candidate should be a true conservative with 37 percent. This is somewhat ironic, given that those who voted for Paul largely were Independents and moderates. This may suggest that those moderates and Independents don’t believe self-identified conservatives are really all that conservative.

New Hampshire

Once again, Ron Paul overwhelming took the youth vote, or under 40 vote, with 46 percent among 18-24 year olds and 35 percent among 30-39 year olds. Like Iowa, New Hampshire voters under 40 make up about a quarter of total voters.

Paul also won those making less than $30,000 a year, likely a product of his support among young people. Nevertheless, he enjoys diversified support among income groups, about 20-30 percent among each income group except those making over $200,000 a year or more; he only captured 12 percent of these voters. In contrast, Romney captured 52 percent of those making $200,000 a year or more.

Similar to Iowa, Paul clearly beat all other candidates among voters who had never voted in the GOP primary before, with 38 percent of new primary voters. Romney captured 43 percent of voters who had voted in the primary before.

Also similar to Iowa, Paul won the Independent vote (self-identified) with nearly a third. Romney won half the Republicans and Huntsman won 40 percent of the Democrats. Among Tea Party supporters in New Hampshire, Paul took second, garnering 22 percent of their vote. Interestingly, Paul also won among whose who have unfavorable opinions of John McCain.

Although Paul comfortably won the vote among those voters who say they are very liberal on social issues like abortion (39 percent), he still captured about 21 percent of the evangelical Christian vote, only 2 percentage points lower than Santorum. He also captured nearly 50 percent of those who say they do not identify with a religion.

Paul also handily won among those who say that the most important candidate quality is to be a true conservative (41 percent went for Paul) and among those who want the candidate to have a strong moral character (40 percent).

Nationwide

Two Reason-Rupe polls asked Americans about their vote choice for President. Compiling the time series questions from both polls into one dataset produces a dataset with 140 Americans who say they would vote for Ron Paul for president. From these data, analyses are run among Independents and Republicans, providing 102 Ron Paul supporters. This provides an approximate overview regarding the demographics of his nationwide support. Surely, a larger sample size would be ideal, and also it should be recognized that the demographic make-up of his support likely would change over time as more voters become aware of his issue positions and other GOP candidates drop out of the race. Nevertheless, this provides an approximate snapshot of Ron Paul supporters.

As Iowa and New Hampshire polls suggest, Ron Paul supporters are unhappy with the status quo, with 82 percent disapproving of President Obama’s job performance and 90 percent disproving of Congress.

A little more than half of Paul’s support comes from those who self identify as Tea Party supporters, a quarter who self-identify as non-leaning Independents, and another quarter who self-identify as Republicans. In contrast, 43 percent of Romney’s support comes from self-identified Republicans.

Moreover, Paul garners diversified ideological support, with 41 percent coming from conservatives and 22 percent coming from self-identified libertarians, and 26 percent from moderates. (In fact, the most recent Reason-Rupe poll, which also asked about support for the Occupy Wall Street movement, found that 44 percent of Paul’s supporters also support the Occupy Wall Street movement.)

Eighty four percent of his support comes from those who are generally fiscally conservative. But 50 percent of his support comes from those are generally socially liberal. In contrast, 72 percent of Romney’s support comes from fiscal conservatives and only 37 percent from social liberals.

These data lend additional supporting evidence to the thesis that Paul is creating a new coalition, with far more Independents, disaffected voters, those who do not fit the traditional left-right political spectrum, and those who have previously not been involved with the political process.

Despite their lack of loyalty to the Republican Party and representation of non-Republican stalwarts, Paul supporters overwhelmingly believe that government is not the one-stop solution for America’s problems. In fact 85 percent say “the less government the better” and 78 percent say individuals would be better able to handle today’s problems within a free market with less government involvement. Somewhat ironically, leading GOP candidate Mitt Romney has a solid 30 percent of supporters who believe the government should be more involved and that we need a strong government to handle complex economic problems. So even though Paul is often perceived as out-of-line with the Republican Party, his supporters clearly represent the fiscally conservative base. Interestingly, Paul supporters are divided on social issues, with half saying the government should promote traditional values in society and the other half believing government should not promote a particular set of values. In contrast, 61 percent of Romney supporters believe the government should intervene to promote traditional values in society.

Sixty six percent of Paul support comes from those younger than 44, compared to 46 percent among Romney supporters. His support is slightly more male than female, (60 percent vs. 40 percent) which is often the case among Republican candidates. His support is fairly evenly distributed across income, although somewhat slightly higher among those making $75,000-$199,000 a year. His support is also fairly evenly distributed across educational groups.

Interestingly, he garners greater support among those employed full time in the private sector (who tend to be more fiscally conservative) and also self-employed individuals (also more fiscally conservative).

Implications

In sum, Iowa, New Hampshire, and aggregated Reason-Rupe poll data suggest Ron Paul captures the votes of young Americans under 40, independent non-partisans, strong fiscal conservatives, and those previously disengaged from the political process. Although many political pundits intransigently continue to perceive the political world as a dichotomy along a left-right political spectrum, Paul’s success appears to be largely owed to the many Americans who do not fit neatly along a socially/economically liberal vs. socially/economically conservative spectrum. Instead, he attracts a diverse group, with many self-identifying as fiscally conservative and socially liberal. Despite Paul’s fiscally conservative base of support, these voters are not Republican stalwarts and may defect if the party fails to meet their demands.  

OBAMA APPROVAL	Mitt Romney	Ron Paul	Total
	%	%	%
Strongly Approve	5	6	8
Somewhat Approve	18	9	16
Somewhat Disapprove	18	24	16
Strongly Disapprove	54	57	56
DK	5	4	5
	100	100	100
CONGRESS APPROVAL	Mitt Romney	Ron Paul	Total
	%	%	%
Strongly Approve	1	1	2
Somewhat Approve	12	6	11
Somewhat Disapprove	26	14	23
Strongly Disapprove	59	75	57
DK	2	4	6
	100	100	100
OBAMA VOTE	Mitt Romney	Ron Paul	Total
	%	%	%
Definitely Vote For Him	7	5	10
Consider Voting For Him	21	18	18
Definitely Not Vote For Him	70	76	68
DK	2	1	4
	100	100	100
ROLE OF GOVERNMENT: LESS/MORE GOV "Some people say the less government the better, others say that there are more things that government should be doing. Which comes closer to your own view?"	Mitt Romney	Ron Paul	Total
	%	%	%
Less Gov the Better	67	85	64
More Gov Should Be Doing	30	14	30
DK	3	2	6
	100	100	100
ROLE OF GOVERNMENT: GOV/FREE MARKET "Some people say we need a strong government to handle today’s complex economic problems, others say that people would be better able to handle today’s problems within a free market with less government involvement. Which comes closer to your own view?"	Mitt Romney	Ron Paul	Total
	%	%	%
STRONG GOV	29	18	30
FREE MARKET	65	78	64
DK	6	4	7
	100	100	100
ROLE OF GOVERNMENT: GOV PROMOTE TRAD VALUES? "Some people think the government should promote traditional values in our society. Others think the government should not favor any particular set of values. Which comes closer to your own view?"	Mitt Romney	Ron Paul	Total
	%	%	%
GOV PROMOTE TRAD VALUES	61	49	59
GOV SHOULD NOT PROMOTE TRAD VALUES	36	46	36
DK	3	6	5
	100	100	100
GENDER	Mitt Romney	Ron Paul	Total
	%	%	%
MALE	51	60	54
FEMALE	49	40	46
	100	100	100
AGE GROUP	Mitt Romney	Ron Paul	Total
	%	%	%
18-29	22	35	20
30-44	24	31	28
45-54	17	18	19
55-64	19	11	18
65+	18	5	15
	100	100	100
RACE	Mitt Romney	Ron Paul	Total
	%	%	%
WHITE	78	82	75
BLACK	2	3	4
HISPANIC	15	6	15
ASIAN	5	8	4
NATIVE AMERICA	0	0	1
OTHER	0	1	0
	100	100	100
ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME	Mitt Romney	Ron Paul	Total
	%	%	%
< $25,000	14	10	12
$25,000 to $49,999	15	22	21
$50,000 to $74,999	22	16	19
$75,000 to $99,999	14	16	14
$100,000 to $199,999	18	21	14
$200,000+	7	4	5
Refused	10	11	14
	100	100	100
EDUCATION	Mitt Romney	Ron Paul	Total
	%	%	%
<High School	1	1	3
High School	14	22	20
Some College	28	32	32
College Grad	32	30	27
Post Grad	19	13	12
Refused	6	3	5
	100	100	100
VOTER REGISTRATION	Mitt Romney	Ron Paul	Total
	%	%	%
Yes	94	91	90
No	3	8	7
Refused	3	1	3
	100	100	100
REGION	Mitt Romney	Ron Paul	Total
	%	%	%
Northeast	22	16	16
Midwest	18	19	21
South	30	38	39
West	30	27	23
	100	100	100
POLITICAL LANDSCAPE (NOT INCLUDING DEMOCRATS)	Mitt Romney	Ron Paul	Total
	%	%	%
OWS	7	17	8
Pure Independent	3	10	6
OWS/TP	5	14	8
Tea Party	47	38	45
Republican	38	21	30
DK	0	0	3
	100	100	100
PARTY ID + TEA PARTY (NOT INCLUDING DEMOCRATS)	Mitt Romney	Ron Paul	Total
	%	%	%
Tea Party	52	52	53
Pure Independent	5	25	12
Republican	43	23	32
DK	0	0	3
	100	100	100
EMPLOYMENT STATUS	Mitt Romney	Ron Paul	Total
	%	%	%
Employed FT PRIVATE	33	40	32
Employed FT PUBLIC	7	6	8
Employed PT PRIVATE	13	9	8
EMPLOYED PT PUBLIC	6	2	3
Self-Employed	8	16	11
Homemaker	6	6	6
Retired	15	4	13
Student	2	3	3
Unemployed	2	8	8
Refused	7	6	8
	100	100	100
TEA PARTY SUPPORTER?	Mitt Romney	Ron Paul	Total
	%	%	%
Not a Supporter	48	48	47
Yes a Supporter	52	52	53
	100	100	100
IDEOLOGY: BASED ON ROLE OF GOVERNMENT QUESTIONS	Mitt Romney	Ron Paul	Total
	%	%	%
Liberal	6	9	10
Libertarian	31	41	28
Conservative	41	43	43
Communitarian	22	7	19
	100	100	100
IDEOLOGY-SELF IDENTIFICATION	Mitt Romney	Ron Paul	Total
	%	%	%
Conservative	46	41	48
Moderate	31	26	25
Liberal	3	2	7
Libertarian	7	22	6
Progressive	8	4	6
Other/DK	4	5	9
	100	100	100
N	213	102	1,133

Find full Reason-Rupe Q4 2011 poll results, question wording, and methodology here.

Follow Emily Ekins on Twitter @emilyekins

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77 Percent of Americans Oppose Gas Tax Increase, 58 Percent Favor Tolls Instead

Posted on January 6, 2012, 3:33PM | Emily Ekins

As the number of people using roads and highways steadily increases, cars have also become more fuel-efficient, thus reducing the amount of gas purchased per person. This is good news for consumers; however, transportation spending is largely funded from gasoline taxes, and those receipts are decreasing. The recent Reason-Rupe poll asked Americans how they would prefer to fund transit going forward.

Gas Tax

Policymakers have considered increasing the federal gas tax, currently 18.4 cents per gallon in efforts to close the spending-funding gap. Yet 77 percent of Americans oppose raising the federal gas tax. Part of the aversion may be a concern that the government will not spend the tax dollars effectively—65 percent of Americans think the government generally spends transportation funding ineffectively.

Toll Roads and Toll Lanes

Rather than tax increases, the poll found that 58 percent prefer paying for new roads and highways by paying tolls when they drive on the roads. Interestingly, another 58 percent of Americans also report there are not toll roads in their area, but 59 percent say they would pay to use a toll lane if governments constructed them and if these lanes would save them time in traffic. This indicates governments are failing to meet demand for toll roads while focusing efforts on other ways to raise revenue and reduce congestion. These findings suggest that policymakers’ attention may need to shift to meet demand for toll roads.

Public-Private Partnerships

Governments are also considering partnering with private companies to build and expand highways, airports, and other infrastructure projects that they might not be able to afford without the efficiency and expertise of the private sector. Thus in addition to raising revenues, governments are also seeking opportunities to reduce costs for roads. However, some are uneasy with private companies building and operating transportation, as they believe this is a role for government. Nevertheless, 55 percent of Americans favor private-public partnerships while 35 percent oppose.

Opening HOV Lanes

Another opportunity to raise revenue and potentially reduce congestion is to open high occupancy vehicle lanes (HOV), previously reserved for carpools, to single drivers who pay a toll. Some point out that this not only can raise revenue, but also offer drivers a faster trip when they need it. However, others point out that lower-income families would be less able or willing to pay the tolls, making this policy unfair. The Reason-Rupe poll found that 57 percent favor opening HOV lanes to toll-paying drivers and 35 percent oppose.

Adjustable Toll Lanes

Another plan governments are considering is to charge adjustable tolls on new toll roads and lanes. Instead of charging the same fee, the tolls would be higher during rush hours and lower when traffic is light. However, 50 percent of Americans oppose this proposal and 39 percent favor it.

Policy Proposals to Reduce Transportation’s Spending-Funding Gap

Find full Reason-Rupe Q4 2011 poll results, question wording, and methodology here.

The Reason-Rupe Q4 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1,200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from December 1-13. Interviews were conducted on both landline and mobile phones. The margin of sampling error for this poll is +/- 3 percent.

Follow Emily Ekins on Twitter @emilyekins

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55 Percent of Americans Want Private Enterprise to Build High Speed Rail

Posted on January 5, 2012, 1:06PM | Emily Ekins

With states bringing in lower tax revenues, strapped budgets, and increasing transportation usage, governments are looking to partner with private firms to provide transportation improvements and expansions. According to the recent Reason-Rupe poll, 55% of Americans favor these kinds of partnerships. In fact, a majority of all political groups favor government working with private companies to further transportation projects.

Many governments are partnering with private companies to build and expand highways, airports and other infrastructure projects that government might not be able to afford otherwise. Do you favor or oppose these public-private partnerships?

Which statement do you agree with more? Federal and state governments should spend taxpayer money to build and operate high-speed rail systems where they think they are needed; or, Private companies should build and operate high-speed rail systems where they think riders will pay to use them.

When Americans are asked to choose between government and private business building high-speed rail, however, a majority of Americans (55 percent) want private enterprise to build this infrastructure. In contrast, 34 percent believe government should build high-speed rail. Partisan divisions do arise for this issue of high-speed rail: a plurality of Democrats and Occupy Wall Street supporters prefer government build with taxpayer money, however a majority of pure Independents, Tea Party Supporters and Republicans prefer private companies to build these railways.

A partial driver of partisan division may be that if governments were to build high-speed railways, they would build where policymakers think they are needed; in contrast, private businesses would build railways where it is profitable to build—so where a substantial number of riders would pay to use them. In sum, deciding between public or private building of high-speed rail contrasts goals of efficiency and access, and political groups make trade-offs between efficiency and access differently.

If this poll has accurately gauged attitudes toward government or private enterprise building and operating railway infrastructure, this casts doubt on how Amtrak is currently run. Currently, many Amtrak lines operate at a loss because policy makers often choose access to rail lines over efficiency in running the trains, even in areas where there is little demand for train use.

Find full Reason-Rupe Q4 2011 poll results, question wording, and methodology here.

The Reason-Rupe Q4 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1,200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from December 1-13. Interviews were conducted on both landline and mobile phones. The margin of sampling error for this poll is +/- 3 percent.

Follow Emily Ekins on Twitter @emilyekins

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Sixty Two Percent of Americans Prioritize Spending on Roads Over Public Transit

Posted on January 4, 2012, 3:34PM | Emily Ekins

Although most Americans drive their cars to work each day, a sizable amount of policy debate centers on public transportation, especially as cities embark on urban planning. A recent Reason-Rupe poll of 1,200 adults on landline and mobile phones finds that 12 percent of Americans take public transportation at least a few times a week and 63 percent say they never take public transit.

Correspondingly, 62 percent of Americans prioritize transportation funding for roads and highways over funding for public transit. Nevertheless, 30 percent—substantially more than those who frequently use public transportation—would prioritize funding for public transit. However, it is unclear whether those who do not take public transit but want to prioritize its spending would personally use public transit if expanded or if they would just want others to use it to reduce traffic congestion.

When getting specific, a third of Americans say public transit funding should be commensurate with the percentage using it; in other words, government should spend the same amount of money per person who takes public transit as those who take roads. Another third believe government should spend more dollars per person using public transit than individuals using roads. In comparison, 15 percent would spend disproportionally more per person using roads. Among those who frequently use public transit to get to work, nearly half believe that more dollars per person should be spent on those using public transportation than those using roads. In contrast, 33 percent of those who primarily commute on roads and highways would rather government spend more dollars per person using roads.

Americans overwhelmingly believe tax dollars spent on transportation are spent ineffectively (65 percent), whereas only 23 percent believe the money is spent well. Interestingly, there are substantial differences between those who take public transit and roads and perceptions of government wastefulness. Sixty six percent of those who commute on roads believe government spends transportation dollars ineffectively, while only 21 percent disagree. In contrast, 41 percent of public transit users believe government does spend effectively.

Find full Reason-Rupe Q4 2011 poll results, question wording, and methodology here.

The Reason-Rupe Q4 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1,200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from December 1-13. Interviews were conducted on both landline and mobile phones. The margin of sampling error for this poll is +/- 3 percent.

Follow Emily Ekins on Twitter @emilyekins

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Fifty Four Percent of Americans Say Traffic Congestion Is Getting Worse

Posted on January 4, 2012, 11:52AM | Emily Ekins

The recent Reason-Rupe public opinion poll called 1,200 adults on landline and mobile phones providing a snapshot of public opinion regarding transportation policy issues. A majority of Americans believe their area’s transportation system is only in fair or even poor condition, while just 6 percent believe it is in excellent condition.

Nearly half of Americans say traffic congestion has gotten worse over the past five years and 54 percent expect traffic congestion to get worse over the next five years. In fact, 31 percent reported getting stuck in traffic jams at least a few times a week; however, another 30 percent say they never get stuck in traffic jams.

Despite traffic problems on the roads, only 6 percent of Americans say they use public transportation, such as buses, subways, or trains, every day; another 6 percent use public transit a few times a week. In contrast, 63 percent say they never use public transit, implying that most Americans primarily use roads and highways rather than public transit. Carpooling has also not caught on as a solution to congestion with only 4 percent saying they typically travel to work via carpool; instead, a majority drive alone.

Work commutes vary substantially, with 25 percent getting to work within 10 minutes while another quarter spending 30 minutes or more commuting. Some live close to work, with 28 percent living within five miles of their jobs, but another quarter travel 20 miles or more to work each day.

Find full Reason-Rupe Q4 2011 poll results, question wording, and methodology here.

The Reason-Rupe Q4 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1,200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from December 1-13. Interviews were conducted on both landline and mobile phones. The margin of sampling error for this poll is +/- 3 percent.

Follow Emily Ekins on Twitter @emilyekins

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Americans Reluctant to Extend Unemployment Benefits to 99 Weeks, Open to 52 Weeks

Posted on December 21, 2011, 4:48PM | Emily Ekins

At the end of December, Congress will determine whether to continue extending unemployment benefits beyond 26 weeks (about 6 months) to 99 weeks (about 23 months).

As of November 2011, national unemployment stood at 8.6 percent; nearly half have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more. (See BLS estimates for unemployment). States typically provide up to 26 weeks' worth of unemployment benefits, and the federal government has provided the extension up to 99 weeks. (For more discussion click here.)

The December 2011 Reason-Rupe poll asked 1,200 Americans on both landline and mobile phones how long they thought unemployment benefits should be. About a third of Americans prefer the states’ six month limit, and about another third believe it should extend seven months to 18 months. A little less than a quarter believe benefits should extend 99 weeks or more. In the sum, the majority (60 percent) reaches consensus at about one year or less. This means that Congress would probably get the most support for extending unemployment benefits to 52 weeks, rather than 99 weeks.

To better understand what Americans think about unemployment, the poll asked whether they thought those unemployed over a year were trying hard to find jobs but couldn’t, or if they could find jobs if they wanted to. Americans are divided, with 48 percent believing those unemployed over a year are trying hard to find jobs and 44 percent believing the unemployed could find jobs if they wanted to. 

When somebody loses their job, for how many months should they receive unemployment benefits? (OPEN-ENDED)

 

Find full Reason-Rupe Q4 2011 poll results, question wording, and methodology here.

The Reason-Rupe Q4 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1,200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from December 1-13. Interviews were conducted on both landline and mobile phones. The margin of sampling error for this poll is +/- 3 percent.

Follow Emily Ekins on Twitter @emilyekins

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Emily Ekins Discusses Results from the Q4 2011 Reason-Rupe Poll

Posted on December 21, 2011, 2:44PM | Emily Ekins

Emily Ekins Discusses Results from the Q4 2011 Reason-Rupe Poll

Find full Reason-Rupe Q4 2011 poll results, question wording, and methodology here.

The Reason-Rupe Q4 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from December 1^st-13^th. Interviews were conducted on both landline and mobile phones. The margin of sampling error for this poll is +/- 3 percent.

Follow Emily Ekins on Twitter @emilyekins

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44 Percent Say They Will Definitely Not Vote For Obama in 2012, 29 Percent Say They Definitely Will

Posted on December 21, 2011, 2:40PM | Emily Ekins

Up a few percentage points from the August 2011 Reason-Rupe poll, President Barack Obama’s approval rating is now 49 percent, with 47 percent of Americans disapproving of his job performance. A little more than half of those who approve of Obama’s job performance say they will definitely vote for him in the 2012 general election, but a third were not ready to commit their votes, saying instead they would consider voting for him.

Among Americans who disapprove of Obama’s job performance, 84 percent say they will definitely not vote for him and 11 percent will consider voting for him. Taken together, about a third of Americans plan to definitely vote for Obama in 2012, a quarter say they will consider voting for him, and a little less than half will definitely not vote for him. Obama’s chances of winning will largely depend on the share of votes he can capture among those who are considering voting for him. Clearly, getting his job approval ratings up will help in this endeavor.

As you may know, the 2012 presidential election is less than a year away and President Barack Obama is running for re-election. Would you say you will definitely vote for him, you will consider voting for him, or you definitely will not vote for him? 

 

How would you rate the job performance of President Barack Obama? Would you say you approve or disapprove of his performance? 

Find full Reason-Rupe Q4 2011 poll results, question wording, and methodology here.

The Reason-Rupe Q4 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from December 1-13. Interviews were conducted on both landline and mobile phones. The margin of sampling error for this poll is +/- 3 percent.

Follow Emily Ekins on Twitter @emilyekins

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45 Percent of Americans Say Abolish and Consolidate HUD, 46 Percent Say Keep It As Is

Posted on December 21, 2011, 2:35PM | Emily Ekins

In a memorable Republican presidential debate moment last month, Texas Gov. Rick Perry couldn’t remember the third government agency he’d eliminate if elected president. Another candidate, Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), says if he’s elected he’ll get rid of five federal agencies: Commerce, Education, Energy, Housing and Urban Development, and Interior. 

Which federal agencies are the American people most willing to eliminate or consolidate? The Reason-Rupe poll finds 45 percent of Americans are ready to eliminate the Department of Housing and Urban Development and 41 percent would eliminate the Department of Energy.

Those who would abolish or keep the departments of Housing and Urban Development and Interior are within the margin of error, revealing that Americans are evenly divided over whether to abolish and consolidate these departments or keep them as is.

The Department of Education was on both Paul’s and Perry’s lists to cut, but 61 percent of Americans want to keep it, while just 34 percent say eliminate it. Americans also seem to favor a federal role in transportation, with 59 percent opposed to abolishing the Department of Transportation. Sixty percent also oppose abolishing the Department of Homeland Security, with 34 percent in favor of abolishing and consolidating it.

Nevertheless, the fact that 30-45 percent of the population wants to consolidate the federal bureaucracy is nothing to scoff at. These results suggest that proposing to abolish and consolidate federal departments is not a fringe view.

Some have proposed abolishing or consolidating certain federal agencies and departments to reduce the deficit. I’m going to read you a list of federal agencies and departments. Please let me know if you would favor abolishing and consolidating its functions, or prefer to keep it as is. The first one is, the Department of...

Find full Reason-Rupe Q4 2011 poll results, question wording, and methodology here.

The Reason-Rupe Q4 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from December 1-13. Interviews were conducted on both landline and mobile phones. The margin of sampling error for this poll is +/- 3 percent. 

Follow Emily Ekins on Twitter @emilyekins

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Newt Leads Mitt, But Not by Much

Posted on December 21, 2011, 2:33PM | Emily Ekins

A new Reason-Rupe Poll of 1,200 adults on cell phones and landlines finds former House Speaker Newt Gingrich to be the most favored candidate among Republican and Republican-leaning voters to win the GOP presidential nomination at 27 percent. However, his lead is narrow, with Mitt Romney coming in at 25 percent. Next is Ron Paul at 7 percent, while 22 percent say they are still undecided.

If you were voting today in the 2012 Republican primary for president, which one of the following candidates would you favor?  (asked of Republicans and Republican Leaners)

 

When these voters are split between Republican-leaners and Republicans, the results flip. Among Republican-leaners, Mitt Romney leads the pack with 28 percent, followed by Newt Gingrich at 19 percent, and Ron Paul at 10 percent. Among Republicans, Gingrich leads at 30 percent, followed by Romney at 24 percent, and Ron Paul at 6 percent. Among pure independents, defined as those who do not lean toward either party, Ron Paul leads with 19 percent, while Gingrich and Romney are tied at 9 percent.

If you were voting today in the 2012 Republican primary for president, which one of the following candidates would you favor? (asked of Republicans, Republican Leaners, and Independents)

The poll also asked all Americans who would be their last choice to become president out of the the aforementioned list of Republican presidential candidates. Michele Bachmann won with 17 percent followed by Newt Gingrich at 12 percent.

Of this list of Republican presidential candidates, who would be your last choice to become president? (Asked of all respondents)

 

Find full Reason-Rupe Q4 2011 poll results, question wording, and methodology here. 

The Reason-Rupe Q4 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from December 1-13. Interviews were conducted on both landline and mobile phones. The margin of sampling error for this poll is +/- 3 percent. Questions on the GOP presidential primary were collected from December 3rd-13th, have a sample size of 1029, and a ± 5 percent margin of error.

Follow Emily Ekins on Twitter @emilyekins  

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Americans Favor Private Competitive Firms Over Public Institutions

Posted on December 21, 2011, 2:32PM | Emily Ekins

A new Reason-Rupe Poll of 1,200 adults on cell phones and landlines finds 76 percent of Americans have a favorable opinion of their banks and just 15 percent view them unfavorably. In contrast, only 32 percent of Americans have a favorable opinion of the federal government and 62 percent view it unfavorably.

State governments are more popular than the federal government, but only half of all Americans view them positively. As you get closer to home, 58 percent of Americans have positive views of their local government and the same number look upon their local school district favorably.

The survey finds people feel a lot better about private businesses. For example, 88 percent of Americans have a positive view of their grocery store; 73 percent look favorably upon their cell phone maker; and 69 percent say they view their Internet service provider favorably.

For each of the following entities, please tell me if your impression is very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know enough to give your feelings, just say so. 

These results suggest several things about what Americans care about. First, Americans tend to hold higher opinions of private institutions than public institutions. Second, Americans tend to prefer firms that tailor products and services to them individually and have a presence locally in the community. Third, Americans tend to prefer institutions that allow them to choose between firms; for example, it’s quite easy to switch between grocery stores and banks, but it becomes more difficult to switch Internet service providers (as governments often divvy up company coverage by neighborhood). It is even more difficult, but possible, to switch your child’s school. One would have to move to switch local governments, would have to move even further to switch state governments. Finally, it is extraordinarily difficult to switch federal governments.

One could make the case that less competition among these latter firms results in them offering less attractive services and products. Nevertheless, further research is needed to more credibly assert the causes between favorability toward private and public institutions.

Find full Reason-Rupe Q4 2011 poll results, question wording, and methodology here.

The Reason-Rupe Q4 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from December 1-13. Interviews were conducted on both landline and mobile phones. The margin of sampling error for this poll is +/- 3 percent. 

Follow Emily Ekins on Twitter @emilyekins

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54 Percent of Americans Fear Government Action Will Hurt the Economy

Posted on December 21, 2011, 2:29PM | Emily Ekins

Reeling from the onset of the 2008 financial crisis, politicians and candidates alike seemed to think everyone agreed that government needed to do something to combat the crisis. Now in 2011 the Reason-Rupe poll asked Americans what concerned them more—that government would fail to take action or that the government would take action but in so doing make things even worse. In response, a majority of Americans said they fear that government action will make things worse, rather than better, while 40 percent said they are afraid that the government will fail to take action.

This lack of confidence in government’s ability, or even capability, is reflected in Congress’ low approval rating of just 13 percent. Confidence in President Barack Obama is roughly split, with 49 percent approving of his performance and 47 percent disapproving.

In terms of the government’s handling of the nation’s current economic problems, what worries you more; that the federal government will take action that makes things worse, or the federal government will fail to take action? 

 

Find full Reason-Rupe Q4 2011 poll results, question wording, and methodology here.

The Reason-Rupe Q4 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from December 1-13. Interviews were conducted on both landline and mobile phones. The margin of sampling error for this poll is +/- 3 percent.

Follow Emily Ekins on Twitter @emilyekins

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77 Percent of Americans Oppose Raising the Gas Tax and Favor Tolls, Reason-Rupe Transportation Poll

A majority of voters prefer tolls to taxes and favor using public-private partnerships to build critical infrastructure

Posted on December 20, 2011, 4:07PM

A majority of Americans believe new transportation projects should be paid for with user-fees instead of tax increases, according to a new national Reason-Rupe poll of 1,200 adults on cell phones and land lines.

The Reason-Rupe poll finds 77 percent of Americans oppose increasing the federal gas tax, while just 19 percent favor raising the tax, which is currently 18.4 cents a gallon. The public thinks the government wastes the gas tax money it already receives. Sixty-five percent say the government spends transportation funding ineffectively, and just 23 say the money is spent effectively. 

The survey shows Americans believe new roads and highways should be paid for by the people driving on them: 58 percent of Americans say new roads and highways should be funded by tolls. Twenty-eight percent say new road capacity should be paid for by tax increases.  

The Reason-Rupe poll finds broad support for user-fees. If a toll road would save drivers a “significant” amount of time, 59 percent of Americans say they would pay to use it. And 57 percent favor converting carpool lanes, or high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes, into high-occupancy toll (HOT) lanes. Voters are much-less supportive of variably-priced toll lanes, however. Half of those surveyed oppose, and 39 percent favor, variably-priced tolls that rise and fall with traffic levels.

In terms of transportation spending priorities, 62 percent want to prioritize funding for road and highway projects, while 30 percent want to prioritize funding for mass transit projects.

As the debate over high-speed rail continues in California and elsewhere, a solid majority of Americans, 55 percent, say the private sector should build high-speed train systems where it thinks riders will pay to use rail. Just 35 percent of Americans believe federal and state governments should build high-speed rail systems where they think the trains are needed. 

As governments at all levels look for ways to pay for transportation projects, public officials should note that 55 percent of Americans support using public-private partnerships to build critical infrastructure projects. Just 35 percent oppose using public-private partnerships to fund highways, airports and other infrastructure.  

The National Transportation Safety Board has called for a ban on cell phones while driving and 69 percent of Americans tell Reason-Rupe that talking on a cell phone while driving should be illegal. Even more, 89 percent, say texting while driving should be illegal. The poll did not ask about using hands-free devices. 

Full Poll Online

The complete Reason-Rupe survey is online at http://reason.com/poll and http://reason.org/files/reason_rupe_transportation_poll.pdf. 

This Reason-Rupe poll, conducted December 3-13, 2011, surveyed a random, national sample of 1,200 adults by telephone (777 on landlines, 423 on cell phones). The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The poll was conducted for Reason Foundation by NSON Opinion Strategy.

This is part of a series of Reason-Rupe public opinion surveys dedicated to exploring what Americans really think about government and major issues.  This Reason Foundation project is made possible thanks to the generous support of the Arthur N. Rupe Foundation.

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Banks Are Viewed Twice as Favorably as the Federal Government, Reason-Rupe Poll Finds

Survey examines how Paul, Palin, Bloomberg and Johnson could do as third-party presidential candidates and asks Americans which federal agencies they’d cut

Posted on December 20, 2011, 1:00PM

The Occupy Wall Street movement tapped into anger about bank bailouts, crony capitalism and corporate welfare, but it turns out that most Americans are mad at the federal government and not their banks. A new Reason-Rupe Poll finds 76 percent of Americans have a favorable opinion of their banks and just 15 percent view them unfavorably.

In contrast, only 32 percent of Americans have a favorable opinion of the federal government. Sixty-two percent of voters rate the federal government unfavorably, according to the national Reason-Rupe poll of 1,200 adults on cell phones and landlines.  

Forty-nine percent of Americans approve of the job President Obama is doing, with 47 percent disapproving. Only 13 percent approve of the job Congress is doing, 80 percent disapprove.

Fifty-four percent of Americans also say they are more worried that the federal government will do something to make the economy worse, while 40 percent are more worried that the government will fail to take action on the economy.

State governments are more popular than the feds, but only half of all Americans view them positively. As you get closer to home, 58 percent of Americans have positive views of their local governments and the same number look upon their local school districts favorably.

The survey finds people feel a lot better about private businesses. For example, 88 percent of Americans have a positive view of their grocery stores; 73 percent look favorably upon their cell phone makers; and 69 percent say they view their Internet service providers favorably.

Presidential Election

If he doesn’t win the Republican presidential nomination, Rep. Ron Paul is the best positioned candidate to make a third-party or independent run, according to the Reason-Rupe poll. Thirty-four percent of Americans say they’d consider voting for Rep. Paul if he ran as an independent or third-party presidential candidate.

A similar number, 31 percent, say they’d consider voting for New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg if he made an independent run for the White House in 2012.

Yesterday, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin said it’s “not too late for folks to jump in” to the presidential race. If Gov. Palin left the Republican Party and ran as an independent, 27 percent of voters say they might vote for her. The problem for Gov. Palin: 67 percent of Americans would not consider voting for her in that scenario.

It has been reported that former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson is considering running as the Libertarian Party’s presidential candidate. Twenty-one percent of voters say they’d consider voting for Johnson while 29 percent say they don’t know enough about him yet.

In terms of the 2012 presidential election, 29 percent of Americans say they will definitely vote for President Obama next November and 44 percent say they will not vote for him.

Cutting Federal Departments

In a memorable Republican presidential debate moment last month, Texas Gov. Rick Perry couldn’t remember the third government agency he’d eliminate if elected president.  And another GOP candidate, Rep. Ron Paul, says if he’s elected he’ll get rid of five federal agencies: Commerce, Education, Energy, Housing and Urban Development, and Interior. 

So which federal agencies are the American people most willing to eliminate or consolidate? Reason-Rupe finds 45 percent of Americans are ready to eliminate the Department of Housing and Urban Development and 41 percent would eliminate the Department of Energy.

The Department of Education was on both Rep. Paul’s and Gov. Perry’s lists to cut, but 61 percent of Americans want to keep it, and just 34 percent say eliminate it.

Full Poll Online

The complete Reason-Rupe survey is available at the link at the top of this article.

This Reason-Rupe poll, conducted December 3-13, 2011, surveyed a random, national sample of 1,200 adults by telephone (777 on landlines, 423 on cell phones). The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The poll was conducted for Reason Foundation by NSON Opinion Strategy.

This is part of a series of Reason-Rupe public opinion surveys dedicated to exploring what Americans really think about government and major issues.  This Reason Foundation project is made possible thanks to the generous support of the Arthur N. Rupe Foundation.

Attachments:

Reason-Rupe Poll December 20 2011.pdf (207.3 KB) —

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For 62 Percent of Americans, the Justification for Stimulus Spending Falls Flat

Posted on November 4, 2011, 5:15PM | Emily Ekins

The justification for several rounds of stimulus spending, as President Obama explains it, is to boost hiring and provide a “jolt” to the stalled economy. However, a recent IPSOS Public Affairs poll finds that a clear majority of Americans are not convinced these stimulus policies have had a positive or meaningful impact on the economy. Rather, 62 percent believe that the stimulus bills Congress has approved in recent years have resulted in greater debt, compared to 28 percent who believe they have helped the economy. Moreover, 82 percent of Republicans and 63 percent of Independents agree that stimulus spending created more debt, compared to 44 percent of Democrats. 

Voters also report that the U.S. budget deficit will impact their vote choice. Sixty two percent of Americans say a candidate’s efforts to reduce the budget deficit will be “very important” in their decision to vote for that candidate. A majority is reached among all major political groups, including 72 percent of Republicans, 59 percent of Independents, and 52 percent of Democrats.

Not surprisingly, an even larger number, 77 percent of Americans, say that a candidate’s efforts to create jobs will be “very important” in their decision to vote for that candidate. A clear majority is also reached among major political groups, with 84 percent among Republicans, 64 percent among Independents, and 78 percent among Democrats.

Survey Methods: Ipsos Poll conducted for Reuters, November 2011

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Reuters from October 31st through Nov 3rd, 2011. For the survey, a nationally representative, randomly selected sample of exactly 1,106 adults aged 18 and older across the United States was interviewed by Ipsos via live telephone interviewing on landlines and cell phones. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate within 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population in the U.S. been polled.

All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample composition reflects that of the actual U.S. population according to U.S. Census figures. Respondents had the option to be interviewed in English or Spanish. Please note that throughout this document, figures based on Independent voters are indicative only due to small sample size. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of a per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. Responses are based on the full sample of adults unless otherwise noted.

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New Gallup Survey: A Majority of Americans Favor Legalizing Marijuana Use

Posted on October 18, 2011, 12:13PM | Emily Ekins

The latest Gallup poll shows a record high of 50 percent of Americans in favor of legalizing marijuana use. This follows a consistent upward trend, picking up speed in 2006 when 36 percent of Americans favored marijuana legalization.

 

A majority of Americans from the East, Midwest, and West, men, liberals, moderates, and independents, Democrats, and individuals ages 18-49 support legalizing the use of marijuana. In contrast, majorities are not reached among women, Republicans, conservatives, individuals over 50, and those from the South.

 

Gallup Poll Survey Methods

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 6-9, 2011, with a random sample of 1,005 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell phone respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1,000 national adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents by region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers. Cell phone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, and phone status (cell phone only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2010 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

View methodology, full question results, and trend data.

For more details on Gallup's polling methodology, visit www.gallup.com.

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In Their Words: What Is the Biggest Problem Facing Americans Today?

Posted on October 3, 2011, 1:07PM | Emily Ekins

The latest Reason-Rupe poll asked respondents to use their own words to describe the biggest problem facing Americans today. Most listed something related to the economy, jobs, and government spending. However a substantial number also mentioned political division, big government, greed, and morality. The graphic below displays the percentage of respondents who mentioned the following issues as America’s biggest problems.

Another way to visually display these results is in a tag cloud. The following graphic depicts those same responses with word size corresponding to frequency. The bigger the word, the more people who mentioned that issue.

Click here for full survey results. 

Survey Methods

The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9-18 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79 percent. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent US Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Clickhere for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll’s fieldwork. View full methodology. 

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Young Americans Age 18-29 Are Less Critical of Government, More Open to Entitlement Reform, and More Socially Liberal

Posted on September 30, 2011, 3:40PM | Emily Ekins

According to a recent Reason-Rupe survey, young Americans ages 18-29 are less critical of government, more open to change, more trusting overall, and more socially liberal. 

Young Americans are the only age group in which a majority approves of President Obama’s job performance (52 percent approve, 42 disapprove). More young Americans approve of Congress’ job performance compared to all other age groups. Nevertheless, congressional approval remains extraordinarily low, even for young Americans at 23 percent.

Interestingly, young Americans are most likely to favor a government spending cap at 86 percent, and a balanced budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution at 74 percent. They are also most likely to want to primarily rely on spending cuts (62 percent) to deal with the national debt. They are also the most likely group to favor increasing taxes on the wealthy—with the plurality defining wealthy as those earning $100,000-$249,999 a year.

Young Americans also differ from their older peers on entitlement reform. More than any other age group, they overwhelmingly support allowing workers to opt out of Social Security and Medicare at 64 percent and 65 percent, respectively. This is compared to 41 percent among those 65 and older for Social Security and 44 percent for Medicare. They are also the most open to reducing Social Security and Medicare benefits if recipients are guaranteed to still get what they put into the system, with 73 percent for Social Security and 70 percent for Medicare.

The 38 percent of young Americans who do not expect to receive any Social Security benefits and the 44 percent who do not expect to receive any Medicare benefits may in part explain their openness to reforming these programs.

Interestingly, they are the least likely age group to favor raising the retirement age, with 80 percent opposed. They are the most likely to favor means-testing the programs, but still a clear majority (72 percent) believe that all those who paid into the system should receive Social Security benefits. The same is true for Medicare: They are the most open to means-testing, but still a clear majority, 65 percent, believe all those who paid into the system should receive Medicare benefits.

On security issues, they tend to be the most trusting of government security measures, with 61 percent very or somewhat confident that the Department of Homeland Security would prevent a terrorist attack. Seventy four percent believe the TSA has made air travel safer and 59 percent are confident the TSA would catch a terrorist trying to board an airplane.

Young Americans’ view of the role for government is nuanced. Substantially more than any other age group—and also the only group to reach a majority—59 percent believe the government should not promote any particular set of values (compared to government promoting traditional values). A majority of young Americans also believe that regulation of business often does more harm than good. At the same time, majorities also believe there is more the government should be doing and that we need a strong government to handle complex economic problems.

Ideologically, young Americans are most likely to be fiscally and socially liberal at 38 percent, then fiscally conservative and socially liberal at 25 percent, then fiscally liberal and socially conservative at 19 percent, and fiscally and socially conservative at 18 percent.

Young Americans are also the most likely to support a presidential candidate who is economically conservative and socially liberal, with 61 percent support, higher than any other age group. They are also willing to consider voting for a third party presidential candidate in 2012, with 62 percent. They are also the least likely to have determined whether or not to vote for President Obama in the 2012 election, with 42 percent who are undecided but will consider voting for him. Young Americans are also most likely to believe (at 37 percent) that the Tea Party is equally concerned with social issues as well as economic issues.

Click here for full survey results.

Survey Methods

The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9^th-18^th 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79%. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent US Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Clickhere for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll’s fieldwork. View full methodology.

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Mitt Romney and Ron Paul Tie Among 18-29 Year-Old Republicans

Posted on September 28, 2011, 2:30PM | Emily Ekins

In the latest Reason-Rupe survey, respondents who self-identify as Republicans were asked if they were voting today in the 2012 Republican primary for president, which of the following candidates would they favor? Ron Paul and Mitt Romney tied for first place among Republican respondents aged 18-29 with 19 percent each. Older Americans are most likely to favor Mitt Romney or Rick Perry. Young Americans are also more likely than older Americans to say they do not know for whom they will vote, at 22 percent.

Ron Paul's ability to gain favor among young Republicans may foreshadow a re-shaped Republican coalition in years to come.

If you were voting today in the 2012 Republican primary for president, which one of the following candidates would you favor? (Asked of self-identified Republicans)

Click here for full survey results. 

Survey Methods

The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9-18 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79 percent. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent U.S. Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Clickhere for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll’s fieldwork. View full methodology. 

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Government Spending In Your Own Words

Posted on September 28, 2011, 1:32PM | Emily Ekins

The latest Reason-Rupe poll asked respondents to use their own words to identify what the government spends the most money on. The following graphic depicts their responses with word size corresponding to frequency. The bigger the word, the more people who mentioned that particular kind of spending.

Please name a few of the things that you think the federal government spends the most money on. 

Click here for full survey results.

Survey Methods

The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9-18 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79 percent. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent US Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Clickhere for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll’s fieldwork. View full methodology.

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Americans Say Federal Government Wastes Over Half of Every Dollar

Posted on September 27, 2011, 10:12AM | Emily Ekins

According to a recent Gallup poll, Americans believe on average the federal government wastes 51 cents out of every dollar it spends. This is up 34% from the 1986 low of 38 cents per dollar. These numbers have steadily increased overtime.

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Is Half the Tea Party Libertarian?

Posted on September 26, 2011, 3:15PM | Emily Ekins

As David Kirby and I found in our analysis of Tea Party supporters at the Virginia Tea Party Convention in 2010, and published in Politico, the Tea Party is not one homogenous blob of ideologues. Many political scientists and political pundits who have not examined the data wrongly conclude the Tea Party is the GOP’s base of extreme fiscal and social conservatives. Instead, examination of nationwide survey data reveals the Tea Party has at least two major groups: one libertarian leaning and the other socially conservative. These two groups agree on most things economic, but disagree when it comes to social and cultural issues. 

The recent Reason-Rupe poll also finds two groups among those who self-identify as supporters of the Tea Party, with 41 percent leaning-libertarian and 59 percent socially conservative. Tea Partiers generally agree on economic issues and abstract role of government questions. However, a split emerges on whether government has a role in promoting traditional values in society or if the government should not promote any particular set of values.

There are demographic differences between the two groups, with the libertarian-leaners less likely to attend religious services, more likely to come from the Northeast, with slightly higher educational attainment in some cases, and younger. 

Although Tea Partiers overall are de-branded Republicans, libertarian-leaning Tea Partiers are even more so. The plurality response to partisan identification is 44 percent “Independent” compared to 39 percent “Republican.” When independents are asked which way they lean, most Tea Partiers lean Republican. Consequently, 39 percent of libertarian-leaning Tea Partiers are Republican and 29 percent lean Republican; in contrast, 57 percent of socially conservative Tea Partiers are Republican and 20 percent lean Republican.

Libertarian-leaners voiced more intense support for allowing workers the choice to opt out of Social Security and Medicare. They are also more likely to favor raising the retirement age than socially conservative Tea Partiers. They are less confident in the department of Homeland Security and the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), and about the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. They are also more likely to believe "misguided" regulations rather than the "lack of" regulations led to the troubled housing market.

Libertarian-leaners are much more likely to support a presidential candidate who is fiscally conservative and socially liberal. They are also more likely to consider voting for a third party candidate.

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On What Do You Think The Government Spends the Most Money?

Posted on September 22, 2011, 12:12PM | Emily Ekins

In the latest Reason-Rupe poll, respondents were asked to use their own words to list which things the federal government spends the most money on. Answers were categorized and coded and then compared with actual government spending data. These data display the first responses given to what the government spends the most money on. These data demonstrate that respondents’ first responses overestimated spending for defense and the military and underestimated spending for mandatory spending programs, including Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, in part because they underestimated the spending to means-tested mandatory programs.

Source: Office of Management and Budget Historical Tables. 2011. Table 8.3 "Percentage Distribution of Outlays by Budget Enforcement Act Category: 1962-2016"

UPDATE: For clarification I replaced the second pie chart with a table "Percentage Distribution of Outlays by Budget Enforcement." Survey respondent percentages should not be directly compared to the federal budget percentages. Instead, the table "Percentage Distribution of Outlays by Budget Enforcement" provides a context for which to interpret survey results.

Click here for full survey results.

Survey Methods

The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9th-18th 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79%. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent US Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Clickhere for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll’s fieldwork. View full methodology.

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