What To Expect

We've just released the latest (and likely final) TPM Poll Average of tomorrow's South Carolina Republican presidential primary. It's Gingrich 35.7%, Romney 26.4%, Santorum 13.9%, Paul 12.8%. This is includes the final polling from PPP that came out in the last hour. (Full Trend Chart after the jump.)

To put this in some perspective. On the January 15th, the date of the debate many credit with igniting his current run, Gingrich was at 21.1%. Tonight he's at 35.7%. A move of almost 15 points in 5 days. Over the same period Romney has dropped around 6 points.

Rumblings on the Newtrizon

PPP is out with its final numbers going into tomorrow's South Carolina primary. It's 37% Gingrich, 28% Romney, 16% Santorum, 14% Paul. That's polling of 1540 voters over the last three days. In the calls they made tonight, Newt was up 40% to 26% over Romney. One night, especially a Friday night, is not much to go on. But it's in line with the trend since Monday which has shown Gingrich rocketing into the lead.

Anything can happen. Polls can be wrong. But polls seldom give us such clear guidance on what to expect.

Stop Blowing It

Republicans give Romney free advice on how not to blow the race he's actually pretty much already won.

Strength!

The Romney campaign seems to be sending conflicting signals about whether Mitt will show up for the next debate on Monday. But NBC is persevering. The show will go on! Probably.

Bain & CO: We Loves Us Some Mitts!

We've obtained an email sent out recently by Bain & Co to recent recruits on how to deal with questions about power-alum Mitt Romney. The gist is: Mitt is awesome! But as long we're on the subject we're Bain & Co, not Bain Capital where all those people got fired. Read it.

Holy Crap

My God. If you want to know why the GOP establishment is freaking out, check out this chart.

Gas for the Fire

Pressed on tax returns, Romney calls for Gingrich to release 90s ethics report. And not just Mitt. His surrogates -- like fmr. Gov. John Sununu (R-NH) -- are pushing the same thing.

Ooops

Speaker of the Kansas House apologizes for sending an emailing praying for Obama's "days [to] be few and brief."

Into the Cyclone

There are signs this morning that the Romney campaign is prepping supporters for a loss in South Carolina tomorrow night. The upside -- or what people think is the upside -- for Romney is his continuing strength nationally. Indeed, the big news of the last couple weeks was that Romney finally seemed to be breaking out of the sub-30 box he'd languished in for so long. But the latest polls show the national primary electorate just as fluid as it was. Frank Newport of Gallup -- usually your classic hyper-cautious poll analyst -- talked about Romney's numbers "collapsing" nationwide. I'm not sure I would have used quite that word. But big picture, he's right. Look at these numbers.

Now Obama Sings Aretha?

Wow, fresh off President Obama's performance last night of Al Green's Let's Stay Together, a follower on Twitter sends me this earlier bootleg of President Obama singing Aretha Franklin. No really. After the jump ...

Love Stuff Like This

Scientists stumble across monkeys in Indonesia long thought to be extinct and manage to capture rare photos of them.

PIPA Vote Delayed

Harry Reid pulls the plug on PIPA vote.

A Grandiose Pollutant

Jon Stewart: Newt Gingrich is the dioxin of husbands.

Obama Sings Al Green

I didn't know tonight would end with me watching video of President Obama singing Al Green's 'Let's Stay Together'. But it did. Watch here.

Initial Reax

I think Newt Gingrich did very well tonight. I think he knows it. He's right. I've heard a number of people say that Rick Santorum had a really strong debate too and even that he 'won' the debate. Indeed, Santorum was basically more on his game than I think I've ever heard him. He had a really good debate. I think Newt did better. But here's the key: Gingrich is in a position to capitalize in a big way on a strong debate performance. I don't think Santorum is. So it all comes down to a very strong performance by Newt -- one I think will likely clinch a win for him on Saturday night, notwithstanding the tell-all interview coming later tonight.

The Meltdown

Video of Mitt's epic tax return meltdown. Watch.

Debate Live-Blogging Pt. #3

9:02 PM: That was such a bad answer for Romney. Basically, Heck, I'm not going to release them now because then Obama's going to totally go town on me.

9:04 PM: God, when did John King become an Aztec priest doing human ritual sacrifice. Live on TV.

9:05 PM: I feel like I need to read the transcript of what Mitt just said about his taxes but I think I'm going to need to get stoned first.

9:27 PM: I'm sort of amazed how on Gingrich has been in this debate. He's made Romney look like a bystander. Except in the portion where Romney dominated the stage with his epic tax return release meltdown.

Relive It

Here's video of Newt's opening fusillade which I think probably won him the debate. Worth watching it again.

Debate Live-Blogging Pt. #2

8:54 PM: I gotta say Newt is more on his game tonight than maybe I've ever seen him. Undeniable. And then after I say that, Santorum comes out of an amazing retort. I mean, house banking scandal? Haven't heard about that in like 20 years. They're both on fire. Romney's like a bystander.

8:57 PM: Did Mitt just have a Rick Perry moment there?

Quick Reax

A quick read on where we are so far.

I think Newt basically won this debate and maybe the primary with the opening fusilade against John King about the Marianne tell-all interview. Shameless, hubris, chutzpah, whatever. It was pitch perfect for his intended audience. He took control of the debate and drew down all the tension about when the debate would turn to the open marriage stuff.

A short time later his campaign released his tax returns. Another little ambush set there for Newt.

Mitt's done fine. But he's felt like a bystander so far to me in this debate. That's fine when he's ahead. But he needs to shake things up, upset Newt's momentum. And he hasn't. Not even close.