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    Florida Debate Live Blogging Pt.1

    8:11 PM: When's the fighting start?

    8:17 PM: Really good answer there.

    8:18 PM: Mittdignation!

    8:19 PM: Is Newt actually managing to use logic and understatement this time? That's total newtjitsu.

    8:22 PM: Okay, this may be a problem for Mitt. He just said he hadn't seen this ad about Gingrich allegedly attacking the Spanish language and doubted it was his. (Here's the ad.) Well, it's his ad and actually have the 'I approve this message' tag at the end.

    Josh Marshall
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    Where Things Stand

    Three big dynamics are likely to drive the Florida primary race between now and next the election next Tuesday.

    The biggest and most interesting is the growing effort by what we think of as the GOP establishment to knock Newt down hard enough in Florida that he can't get up off the canvas. Bob Dole's seering attack on Newt today and Larry Kudlow's very aggressive interview with Newt tonight on CNBC are the latest examples of the Stop Newt movement. The second dynamic is the $5 million of pro-Newt money from the Adelsons. Does it go toward a ferocious last-minute attack on Mitt? Signs point to yes. The final driving force is tonight's debate, in a primary season where the debates -- nearly 20 of them now -- have had sometimes outsize influence.

    The debate starts at 8 p.m. ET. You can follow the debate here in the Editors Blog and on TPM Livewire.

    David Kurtz

    Awwwkward

    A local GOP official who witnessed the exchange between Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer and President Obama on the tarmac yesterday gives TPM his different account of the "awkward moment."

    David Kurtz

    What Are The Other 9?

    Regarding Bob Dole's broadside against Newt Gingrich, the Gingrich camp's top spox tells TPM at an event in Florida just now: "It's got to be on the top 10 list of the weirdest things he's ever written."

    David Kurtz
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    The Number That Scares Team Mitt

    There's one big fact about the Obama presidency: the US economy has sucked all through it. Who you blame for that is the key to the American political debate. But the reality of the suck is the baseline. The President's approval on the economy has trended down over the course of the last three years.

    Read More →
    Josh Marshall

    Was Brewer an Ambush?

    Did Gov. Brewer set the President up? I'm not sure. But I do think she wanted to get in his face. TPM Reader JS has another take.

    Consider the possibility that Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer's airport spat with President Obama was anything but ad hoc and instead a cunningly orchestrated - and stunningly effective - tactic to neutralize the President's message of the day.

    Read More →
    Josh Marshall

    Erratic, Reckless, Grandiose

    As I've told people a few times: wake me up when the Romney campaign schedules a press call with a psychiatrist. Then I'll know things are getting serious. This anti-Newt mailer sent out by the Romney campaign isn't quite that. But it's close.

    Josh Marshall
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    Newt Pledges Moon Base

    Speaking in Florida moments ago, Newt Gingrich pledged to have a permanent US base on the moon by the end of his second term as president.

    Speaking for myself, that sounds awesome. But I have to assume Team Romney will grab on to that and mock him like crazy. I don't care how public/private you make it. The budgetary toll of a project like that would have to be massive. And I don't think there are any strong near term business models for doing stuff on the moon.

    Josh Marshall

    Damn Close

    Here's the trend line of Florida since December 1st. Chart after the jump ...

    Read More →
    Josh Marshall

    Mitt: It's a Bridge Too Far!

    Romney tells Univision: "I would love to be able to convince people of that, particularly in a primary in Florida. [But] I don't think people would think I was being honest with them if I said I was Mexican-American."

    Josh Marshall

    Awesome

    NASA releases new high-def photo of Earth. Wow. See it here.

    Josh Marshall

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