Bark Bark Woof Woof

Wednesday, January 04, 2012

Buh-Bye Bachmann

I thought she'd never leave.

Michele Bachmann Wednesday morning announced in Iowa that she would suspend her presidential campaign after a disastrous finish in the first-in-the-nation caucus voting on Tuesday.

“Last night the people of Iowa spoke with a very clear voice, so I have decided to stand aside,” she said, putting her campaign in the past tense

She walked through the history of the country and criticized "ObamaCare" in her much-awaited announcement before confirming her departure from the race.

"I am not motivated in this quest by vain glory," she said this morning in her West Des Moines news conference. The sudden stop came after she fought through just one early state's contest.

In her little departure speech, she described how the passage of the healthcare bill was her sole motivator to get into the race in the first place: so she could singlehandedly repeal it and save the world from Socialism. The rest, like convert everyone to Jesusosity, was just icing on the cake.

The only thing I'll miss about her is her amazing ability to come up with gob-smacking nutsery to the point of stunning awesomeness. She's the one that makes Rick Santorum seem like a rational candidate.

Cool Breeze

Every winter we here in South Florida get a gentle reminder that we live in a sub-tropical zone, not the full-tilt tropics.

Photo: Marie Winn.

Dick Patrol

Rick Santorum really wants to control your body.

Rick Santorum reiterated his belief that states should have the right to outlaw contraception during an interview with ABC News yesterday, saying, “The state has a right to do that, I have never questioned that the state has a right to do that. It is not a constitutional right, the state has the right to pass whatever statues [sic] they have.”

[...]

Santorum has long opposed the Supreme Court’s 1965 ruling “that invalidated a Connecticut law banning contraception” and has also pledged to completely defund federal funding for contraception if elected president. As he told CaffeinatedThoughts.com editor Shane Vander Hart in October, “One of the things I will talk about, that no president has talked about before, is I think the dangers of contraception in this country,” the former Pennsylvania senator explained. “It’s not okay. It’s a license to do things in a sexual realm that is counter to how things are supposed to be.”

There's a reason that "no president has talked about [banning contraception] before." That's because if he did, he would be unbalanced.

And this is the guy who finished eight votes behind Mitt Romney in the Iowa caucus.

Bonus: Go read Dan Savage's post on Rick Santorum's daughter Elizabeth who claims that "she has gay friends who support her father's candidacy." Dan wants to know: "Who are these faggots?"

Perry's Exit

One of the things the Iowa caucus proved was that, yes, even Republicans know when they've got someone who is too stupid to be president.

Eight Votes

They don't call him Landslide Mitt for nothing.

Mitt Romney’s quest to swiftly lock down the Republican presidential nomination with a commanding finish in the Iowa caucuses was undercut on Tuesday night by the surging candidacy of Rick Santorum, who fought him to a draw on a shoestring budget by winning over conservatives who remain skeptical of Mr. Romney.

In the first Republican contest of the season, the two candidates were separated much of the night by only a sliver of votes, with Mr. Romney being declared the winner by eight ballots early Wednesday morning. But the outcome offered Mr. Santorum a chance to emerge as the alternative to Mr. Romney as the race moves to New Hampshire and South Carolina without Gov. Rick Perry, who announced that he was returning to Texas to assess his candidacy.

Here's the final tally, with Mr. Romney getting 30,015 votes, or 24.6%; Mr. Santorum with 30,007, or 24.5%; and Ron Paul, a relatively distant third with 21.4%. Newt Gingrich got 13.3%, and Michele Bachmann, with 5.0%, less than half what Rick Perry got (10.3%), apparently got punk'd by God, whom she said promised her a miracle. (Perhaps the miracle is that she's toast.)

The results tell me, the casual observer, that for the $4 million plus that Mitt Romney spent in Iowa, all he has to show for it are eight votes over Rick Santorum's little underfunded campaign; proving that old Beatles song to be true: "Can't Buy Me Love." It also shows that eight votes in Iowa represents the huge gap in the GOP between the rich 1% establishment folks and the wild-eyed Tea Partiers with apocalyptic views of the world and an obsession with other peoples' private lives.

It also means that since Mr. Romney has yet to break the 25% barrier in national polling, the nomination is not his yet and may not be for a while, no matter what happens next week in New Hampshire or later on in South Carolina or Florida. New Hampshire is loaded for Romney, but heading south will be different, and Newt Gingrich may rise again. It really doesn't matter who rises, though; the lasting impression is still that no matter how hard he tries, the GOP would really rather have someone other than Mitt Romney, and the winner of that contest is Barack Obama.

Short Takes

The Taliban is renting an office and perhaps looking towards peace talks.

Iran is saber-rattling over the Straits of Hormuz; look out for higher gas prices.

So far, the stock market likes 2012.

Construction spending is going up; always a good sign for the economy.

Starbucks is raising prices in the Northeast.

South Florida shivers through its annual visit from a cold wave.

Tuesday, January 03, 2012

Iowa Stubborn

I'm going to write something tomorrow morning about the results tonight, but I'm too tired to spend much more time than these sentences on it. I'm watching Rachel Maddow, who seems like she's chugged a couple of Red Bulls with her enthusiasm for the process.

I have a lot of friends from Iowa, it's a very nice state, it's surprisingly progressive -- Tom Harkin and it's voted for the Democrat in a lot of recent presidential elections -- but the Republican caucuses bring out the whackos, so the person who wins the GOP caucuses tonight will be some loathsome right-wing ideologue who is big on dissing anybody who isn't white, straight, and Murican, and if you're a woman, why, the best thing you can do is stand by your man and churn out babies like a photocopier at Kinko's.

Prove me wrong.

A Little Night Music

For the 120th anniversary of the birth of J.R.R. Tolkien.

Let The Games Begin

Just in case you haven't noticed, tonight is the night of the Iowa caucuses, wherein a very small segment of white voters in a state that is about as non-representative of the rest of America that you can get without leaving the continent will decide by a vote of 25% or less which rich white guy will be the Republican candidate for president.

Democracy. Gotta love it.

Annals of Chutzpah

The classic definition of chutzpah is the man on trial for murdering his parents begging for mercy because he's an orphan. According to Greg Sargent, the GOP is coming up with a similar strategy to defeat President Obama:

[A]fter doing everything in their power to prevent Obama from successfully transcending partisanship and achieving transformative change — even if it meant repeatedly opposing solutions to profound national problems they once embraced — Republicans will now attack him for failing to transcend partisanship and achieve transformative change.

That makes perfect GOP sense.

David Brooks and Little Ricky

David Brooks finally finds a candidate that he thinks is the one...for now: Rick Santorum.

He is not a representative of the corporate or financial wing of the party. Santorum certainly wants to reduce government spending (faster even than Representative Paul Ryan). He certainly wants tax reform. But he goes out of his way in his speeches to pick fights with the “supply-siders.” He scorns the Wall Street bailouts. His economic arguments are couched as values arguments: If you want to enhance long-term competitiveness, you need to strengthen families. If companies want productive workers, they need to be embedded in wholesome communities.

It’s hard to know how his campaign will fare after a late surge that he is experiencing in Iowa. These days, he is a happy and effective campaigner, but, in the past, there has been a dourness and rigidity to him. He’s been consumed by resentment over unfair media coverage. As his ally in the AIDS fight, Bono, once told a reporter, Santorum seems to have a Tourette’s syndrome that causes him to say the most unpopular thing imaginable.

But I suspect he will do better post-Iowa than most people think — before being buried under a wave of money and negative ads. And I do believe that he represents sensibility and a viewpoint that is being suppressed by the political system. Perhaps, in less rigid and ideological form, this working-class experience will someday find a champion.

Add to it that Sen. Santorum is deeply homophobic and has said some amazingly stupid things about any number of topics (including this doozy about black people on welfare), and apparently has no more of an understanding about things outside of his little world made up of the Baby Jesus and creationist home-schooling than a block of cheese... why, he's the perfect Republican candidate to defeat Barack Obama.

I love it when David Brooks tries to defend the white working class as if he knew something about it. Through his one visit to Ottumwa, Iowa -- the home of Radar O'Reilly -- and his visit to the Applebee's salad bar, Mr. Brooks knows what the white working class needs. As it is, he couches it in TV sit-com stereotypes that hark back to Archie Bunker and Ralph Kramden -- "[t]hey sense that the nation has gone astray: marriage is in crisis; the work ethic is eroding; living standards are in danger; the elites have failed; the news media sends out messages that make it harder to raise decent kids. They face greater challenges, and they’re on their own" -- and so he thinks they're looking for a candidate like Rick Santorum that will reinforce and feed their fears and justify their little bigotries.

The sardonic hilarity is that the modern Republican Party and people like Rick Santorum have done more with their family values fearmongering to demoralize and decimate the white working class than all the gays getting married or the women seeking abortions ever could have in their wildest Kenyan Socialist wet dreams. If that's the kind of "sensibility and a viewpoint that is being suppressed by the political system," than perhaps there's a good reason why Rick Santorum is the perfect candidate for the white working class: he's a sanctimonious bigot with a Torquemada complex. Who better?

Back To Work

Well, it was fun while it lasted.

Short Takes

Europe -- Financial austerity measures don't seem to be working there.

Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta has a plan for cutting military spending.

Police in Los Angeles have arrested a suspect in the string of car arson fires.

The suspect in the killing of a park ranger in Mt. Rainier National Park has been found dead.

Gynecologists are welcoming transgender patients.

It's going to be cold down here in South Florida for a few days.

Monday, January 02, 2012

A Little Night Music

When The Truth Is Found To Be Lies

I missed 60 Minutes last night, but Steve Benen has the gist of the Lesley Stahl interview with Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA).

In this video, it starts at about the 10:19 mark. For those who can’t watch clips online, Cantor told Lesley Stahl, “Nobody gets everything they want.” Asked if that means he’s ready to compromise with Democrats, the oft-confused Majority Leader replied that he’s “ready to cooperate.” Stahl, of course, noticed word choice, and pressed Cantor on the difference between cooperation and compromise.

It led to this exchange:

Stahl: But you know, your idol, as I’ve read anyway, was Ronald Reagan. And he compromised.

Cantor: He never compromised his principles.

Stahl: Well, he raised taxes and it was one of his principles not to raise taxes.

Cantor: Well, he — he also cut taxes.

Stahl: But he did compromise —

Cantor: Well I —

At that point, Cantor’s press secretary, off camera, interrupted the interview, yelling that Stahl was lying when she said Reagan raised taxes. As Stahl told “60 Minutes” viewers, “There seemed to be some difficulty accepting the fact that even though Ronald Reagan cut taxes, he also pushed through several tax increases, including one in 1982 during a recession.”

Let’s call “some difficulty” a dramatic understatement.

It's actually part of the plan. The real Ronald Reagan was replaced, almost from the day he left the White House, with "Ronald Reagan", who never raised taxes, never compromised, never signed an abortion bill in California, and never knocked back a Scotch with Tip O'Neill. It didn't hurt that Mr. Reagan himself was incapable of correcting the record, and the GOP has always had the amazing ability to rehabilitate people who at one time singlehandedly destroyed the party and turn them into frontrunners without missing a step; vide Richard Nixon and Newt Gingrich. And there's a large contingent in the party who consider Joe McCarthy a hero.

So Eric Cantor and his press secretary can easily say -- and believe -- that "Ronald Reagan" was exactly who they say he was. The most amazing thing is that Lesley Stahl actually called him them out on it.

All Good Things...

Today is my last day of winter break before going back to the hurly-burly of early rising, early blogging, and back to work. It's been a nice break that would have been nicer had I not been sick for most of it. True to form, the last vestiges of my cold are going away, although I still have congestion in my head to the point that the hearing in my right ear is basically off-line.

As I noted someplace else -- Facebook, I think -- being sick turns my creative juices to sludge, so I didn't get much work done on writing the new play, although I did get a lot of sketching and thinking done, so that when I do actually put pixels to screen it will be better than before. And I did get a chance to do some work around the house that had been neglected for a while, so there's a small sense of accomplishment there.

Anyway, I've got last-minute errands to do today, so enjoy the "minor holiday" that is today along with the bowl games and the Rose Parade, and I'll see you later.

You Say You Want A Revolution

Frank Rich, now writing for New York magazine, has a spot-on analysis of the GOP and its radical shift to the right, and how the Beltway magic of Mitt Romney may not be good enough for the 75% of the party who want someone else.

That lopsided majority of the GOP is so angry at the status quo that it has been driven to embrace, however fleetingly, some of the most manifestly unqualified, not to mention flakiest, presidential contenders in American history. The 75 percent is determined to take a walk on the wild side. This is less about rejecting Mitt—who’s just too bland a figure to inspire much extreme emotion con or pro—than it is about fervently wanting something else.

So even if Mr. Romney is able to pull off the win in Iowa -- and he's running neck-and-neck with Ron Paul and Rick Santorum this morning -- and he wins New Hampshire, he still has South Carolina, Florida, and a host of other places where he will still have to win over the hearts and minds of the evangelicals who think Mormons are cultists and the last time they were faced with a former governor of Massachusetts, it was Michael Dukakis.

So now we are getting down to where the institutionalized Tea Party gets to do more than ride their Rascal scooters to the town halls. Unlike the mid-terms of 2010 where it was all local, this time the primaries are for the big prize, and they have to find The One for them. All of the candidates that have peaked and cratered -- Herman Cain, Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann -- each had a piece of the puzzle: Mr. Cain was the financial guy, Gov. Perry was the white alpha male Bush clone, and Rep. Bachmann had the social butinsky issues of abortion and gays covered. But they couldn't come up with one candidate that embraced them all. Newt Gingrich was so full of himself and such a caricature of the typical IOKIYAR hypocrite that even his hard-core stances and moment of tears couldn't save him.

Ron Paul, who embodies the most orthodox elements of the Tea Party in nearly every aspect -- government along the level of Somalia, fetal monitoring by drone aircraft, a Pat Robertson-view of gays, and thinly-disguised racism -- is the closest the 75% gets to the one they really want, but even he can't close the deal because, well, he's Ron Paul.

The GOP establishment of Karl Rove and the remainders of the Bush administrations will do everything they can to make sure that Mitt Romney is the nominee, but that will not quell the 75%, especially if he loses. The re-election of Barack Obama will re-energize the radicals to the point that in 2016 there won't be a viable Republican to the left of Michele Bachmann that will get a chance. They'll be out for blood, and people like Karl Rove and the GOP establishment will be the ones they'll go after.

Short Takes

Down to the wire in Iowa.

Iran tests a Cruise missile.

Car arson continues in Los Angeles.

South Florida braces for its first cold wave of the season.

Sunday, January 01, 2012

A Little Night Music

If There's An Afterlife...

...this is the only way I'd want to go: as long as Sam is there, too.

HT to John.

Sunday Reading

Truth, Lies, and the Internet -- Rebecca J. Rosen at The Atlantic looks at how lies and misinformation persist even in the age of instant knowledge.

Sure, there is bad information all over the Internet, and because of the Internet, it can spread more rapidly. But it's also clear that the Internet is making fact-checking easier and more widespread than ever. Lucas Graves, a doctoral candidate at Columbia, notes that fact-checking is on the rise; mentions of "fact check" more than doubled in Nexis between 2004 and 2010. And, as one Slashdotter writes, any wrong Slashdot piece will be disproved in the comments, voted up in the site's unique commenting system. The good information is out there, whether it's provided by institutions like FactCheck.org or the denizens of sites such as Wikipedia or Slashdot. And when the fact-checking shop Politifact royally screws up its Lie of the Year, the rebuttals are everywhere.

A more interesting question is why, in this age of Google and Snopes, does misinformation persist? As a few of the Slashdot commenters note, plenty of urban legends that have been eminently checkable on Snopes for years continue to circulate. I suspect this can at least be partially explained by an intriguing theory of how the mind works, advanced last spring by Hugo Mercier and Dan Sperber, two cognitive scientists.

There is a belief -- a myth, really -- that the human mind takes in information, and then reasons through it to produce ideas and opinions. But humans are notoriously poor at reasoning as it is conventionally understood, predictably falling into known traps, such as the confirmation bias (the tendency to absorb information that supports what one already thinks). Mercier and Sperber argued that the explanation for why human reasoning is so poor isn't because it's deficient, but because we've measured it against the wrong standard. Human reason doesn't exist to provide us with a more accurate picture of the world; it exists to structure and promote discourse, or what Mercier and Sperber term "argument." The human mind is better at spotting the flaws in someone else's argument than its own, and in groups or pairs can do much better on a variety of tests than when flying solo.

As much as we like to think otherwise, facts, at least according to this schema, aren't at the core of how we understand the world, but they sure are useful for rebutting the way other people do.

Cartoon by XKCD.

Why We Need PBS -- Harold Pollack at Washington Monthly says the proposal by Mitt Romney to sell ads on PBS is a very bad idea.

Romney’s suggestion provides an obvious dog whistle to cultural conservatives, who seem to harbor an amazing hatred for public broadcasting. They harbor similar hatreds for the National Endowment for the Arts, the National Endowment for the Humanities, and (increasingly) efforts to support science education that touch on icky subjects such as evolution, human sexuality, or climate change.

The irony here is that PBS and the national endowments are profoundly conservative enterprises. I don’t mean that Sesame Street or school educational programs outside Texas specifically promote issue positions favored by Fox News. These efforts conserve and communicate our cultural, artistic, and scientific heritage within a broader popular culture that would not otherwise attend to these tasks.

PBS provides a rare safe haven from the crude and cruddy world of commercial television, which is such a destructive force in so many ways in American life. One does not have to go all Tipper Gore to be dismayed at the sight of media conglomerates hawking sugar cereal and burgers to children, and use sex and violence and clunky product placements to sell whatever to everyone else.

There’s also the simple fact that most commercial television is relentlessly and depressingly bad. True, the affluent can get high-quality dramas such as the Wire through the concierge-care option of pay cable. That’s hardly adequate. And is there any free or non-free cable show to match the quality of Frontline, American Experience, POV, or Nova? If so, I haven’t seen it. The public broadcasting option is incredibly important.

So Much For Those -- Andy Borowitz's New Years resolutions didn't work out.

Resolution No. 1: I Will Quit Smoking

On New Year’s Day, I started using nicotine patches, nicotine gum, and nicotine lozenges but stopped when I began to hallucinate that I was a Lucky Strike. January 2nd brought a new, less arrogant resolution: “I will smoke only cigarettes I did not pay for.” Unfortunately, I hadn’t anticipated how easy it would be to steal them at the 7-Eleven, especially when the girl behind the counter was on her cell phone trying to cast a vote for “American Idol.” Seven months later, I’m actually smoking slightly more than I did last year, but that may be because I’m more focussed on trying to quit stealing.

Resolution No. 2: I Will Lose Thirty Pounds

Successful dieters say it’s not what you eat but how much you eat that counts, which is why, back in January, I resolved to eat only while driving. After all, there’s only so much you can shove into your mouth when one hand is on the wheel and the other is holding a cigarette. I guess we’ll never know whether my diet would have worked, since on January 3rd I drove my Sentra into the display window of a roofing-supply store in Long Island City. Since then, I’ve actually gained about five pounds, most of which I chalk up to the nervous eating I’ve been doing while awaiting my trial. On the positive side, now that I have to walk everywhere it’s only a matter of time before my unsightly love handles are ancient history.

Doonesbury -- Character counts.

Short Takes

President Obama signed the defense bill that allows unlimited detention of suspects.

A 7.0 earthquake struck near Japan.

Nigeria declares a state of emergency over attacks.

Iran reports that it has made a nuclear fuel breakthrough.

There was a second night of car fires in Los Angeles.

Parts of Michigan are in for a major winter storm.

Happy New Year

So far, so good.

Saturday, December 31, 2011

A Little Night Music

Between the past and the future lie the Nether Lands.

My best wishes to all for a good year and many more after.

An Appreciation

I want to take this time as I do just about every year to say thank you to the people in my life who have made this a good year in a lot of respects, all things considered.

I made it through with my health and sanity relatively unscathed, and I have my immediate family all in good condition and spirits, and we all got through 2011 with few complaints. At our family reunion in Santa Fe in August, I realized how blessed I am to have both of my parents to guide and inspire me, my brothers and sister to remind me of the oneness of family, and extended family to share joy and sorrow with. At my 40th year high school class reunion in September, I renewed friendships with people who had been a part of my life for many years, and in some ways still are. This was a good year for renewal.

I still have a place to work and good people and friends to work with, doing good things for the hundreds of thousands of students and teachers in Miami-Dade County Public Schools. The last couple of years have been tough for all of us with cutbacks in the budget and added responsibilities for all of us. But we made it through in good stead and I'm happy and humbled to be a part of the effort. We have had our own shares of testing times -- taking on new duties with less money to do it -- but we made it through, and so to all of my colleagues and friends, thanks for everything. See you Tuesday.

This past August marked the tenth anniversary of my return to Miami. It hardly seems possible, but this is the longest I've stayed in one place since I graduated from high school, surpassing the eight years I lived in Colorado. Of course, helping me feel back at home has been the friendship and companionship of Bob and the Old Professor, who are still enjoying their retirements and the joys of volunteer work. Our regular Friday nights out to dinner and the wonderful meals on occasion are a great part of my life, not to mention the joy that Bob and I get out of using the OP as our straight man, so to speak. Never was there a better role model since George Burns or Margaret Dumont. And without Bob, my enthusiasm for cars and great humor would be sorely diminished.

There also the big wide world of the blogosphere out there that provides endless insight as well as maddening inanity. But it's all a part of the mix. Bark Bark Woof Woof marked eight years back in November. This year was the most prolific (if not insightful) with over 2,150 posts; some of them even worth reading. I owe so much to so many people who have linked and promoted this little bit of the blogosphere, especially Rick at SFDB, and those who have included me in their effort: Melissa McEwan at Shakesville, Michael at The Reaction, and Kenneth Quinnell at FPC. I have become a lot better at this largely because of them.

And then, of course, there's you, dear Reader. Believe it or not, I don't do this just because I love to write. Well, I do love to write, but it would seem to be a hollow effort if I didn't think there was someone out there to read it and certainly keep me on my toes. You have made this blog a joy to write, and I am always thinking of you when I sit down here in the early morning to look at the world with dry bemusement and try not to bump into the furniture on my way to the coffee maker.

So here we go into 2012. What's next?

PS: You can get a t-shirt with that cool picture of Mustang Bobby and Sam at the BBWW Shop. Get yours today.

Looking Back/Looking Forward

It's time for my annual crystal ball gazing and retrospective. A year ago I made some predictions, so let's see how I did.

On December 31, 2010, I wrote:

- If you thought 2010 was the year of gridlock, Hell No You Can't, and strange pronouncements from political characters and punditry, that was only the curtain raiser. With the House in the hands of the far-right and the Tea Party unmoved and unimpressed with reality, we're going to be constantly entertained, horrified, disgusted, and gob-smacked. Speaker of the House John Boehner will be dealing with a group of people who resemble a classroom full of sugared-up eight-year-olds. All the attempts to repeal every bill passed by a Democratic president since 1960 will energize the base only to have them ground to a fine powder and blown away by the Senate or a veto pen. There will be heroic, if not Pyrrhic, attempts to cut spending and bring down the deficit, but the crazies are driving the bus and as long as they do, it's going to look more like a pie fight than civil discourse. The DREAM Act will not pass; Republicans need someone to beat up on, and immigrants, like Muslims, are easy pickings since they know that they'll never vote for the GOP. Meanwhile, they'll keep up the kinderspiel of doing things like reading the Constitution while constantly trying to subvert it and re-write it, especially when they get to the part about "equal rights under the law." Of course they believe in that... as long as you're white, straight, and Christian. There will be hundreds of subpoenas issued by House committees to investigate everything in the Obama White House, up to and including the bidding process for the swing set built for the Obama children. If you want to make a fortune in this economy, graduate law school in January, pass the bar exam, and move to Washington.

Nailed it. That was kind of an easy one, because if there's one thing that's easy to predict, it's the behavior of the Republicans. They dug in their heels on simple things like passing bills to support the responders to September 11, 2001 and autism research just because the president supported them, while out at the state level, newly-elected governors took their elections as mandates to enact new bills that overreached and angered even their own supporters. It was a year of hostage-taking and childish tantrums, hypocrisy and schadenfreude, race-baiting, women-hating, and gay-bashing, and we haven't even gotten past the candidates who are running for the GOP nomination.

More below the fold.

- The economy will continue to improve, albeit slowly. That's how they do it; they go in cycles, and especially after this last Great Recession, there will be a lot of changes, just as there was after every economic downturn. A year from now the unemployment number will be around 8%, which is still high, but on the track to be lower by the time the 2012 election comes around.

I give myself a B on that one. The unemployment rate is allegedly at 8.6% nationally, but it's still in the teens for black men, and it's still higher than that in some states. Here in Florida it's getting a little better in spite of Gov. Rick Scott's gutting of many programs and throwing a lot of state workers out of jobs.

- Of course Sarah Palin will announce she's running for president. We've known that since the day after the 2008 election. Her competition will include Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, and just for the fun of it, John Bolton. A year from now, we'll be weeks away from the Iowa caucuses. President Obama will not have a serious primary challenger. The "professional left" is a pale shadow of a threat compared to the hard-core on the right; when they form a circular firing squad, they usually end up winging it.

Half right on that in that Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich would be in the running, but I should have known that Sarah Palin had neither the attention span or the maturity to make a valid attempt to run for office. But I was pleasantly surprised to see that her replacements -- Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Herman Cain -- would be just as entertaining.

- We're going to see more progress on gay equality, but at about the same pace as this year. Court cases challenging the Defense of Marriage Act will make it to the federal level, and Perry vs. Schwarzenegger will be appealed to the Supreme Court no matter the outcome of the current appeal, and it should land on the steps in Washington in time for the 2012 term. By then, perhaps, Antonin Scalia will be retired and living in Sicily. Based on the make-up of the House and Senate, you can forget about passing the Employment Non-Discrimination Act (ENDA).

I give myself an A- on that; the Prop 8 case hasn't made it to the U.S. Supreme Court yet, but a lot more progress is being made, including the Senate voting out a bill to repeal DOMA. The end of DADT in September was a huge achievement.

- Florida politics will be fun to watch. Gov. Rick Scott will get a lot of stuff through the legislature since they're all Republicans, but it will be interesting to see what he does with the economy since it's the only thing bigger than his personal wealth. At some point even he and the legislature will figure out that cutting taxes and services will hit the wall, and even Republicans send their kids to public schools and take prescription medicines. I give it until June before some kind of scandal about cronyism and questionable dealings hits the state; it's in their DNA. And in Miami-Dade politics, it would be an event if there wasn't a scandal, threats of recalls, and some people doing the Miranda macarena.

That Rick Scott isn't under indictment isn't a surprise, but neither is his approval level, which is about the same as that of the ebola virus. His regime of voter registration laws and drug testing for welfare benefits are facing lawsuits, and his slashing of education funding in favor of corporate tax relief and charter schools has decimated public education to the point that he's rapidly trying to recover. Locally, Miami went through a recall and run-off election for the county mayor, and the cronyism at the high levels got so rampant that even the Miami Herald wrote about it. In other words, just another year in South Florida.

- Another perennial favorite: This will be the year that Cuba will see some big changes, through the passing of one or more of the Castro brothers and the de facto relaxation of the U.S. embargo to the point that by next year, Cuba will be like Vietnam; nominally Communist but practically capitalist. (I've been saying that privately since 1989, though.)

Right prediction, wrong region: what I wanted for Cuba landed in the Middle East, so we got rid of dictators in Tunis, Libya, Egypt, and we're working on Syria and Yemen. Next year in Havana....

- Personal predictions... the same, I hope, as last year: I will keep writing, I will continue to go to Inge and to Stratford, I'll still be driving the Mustang, the Pontiac will still be in the garage. If I upgrade my technology, it will be to get a Samsung 42" flat screen HDTV, assuming I can come up with the money for it.

I am nothing if not predictable. All came true, with the exception that the HDTV is 32".

Okay, now I'll boldly go into 2012.

- Barack Obama will narrowly win re-election against Mitt Romney. It will be a campaign of fear, loathing, excess, and outrage... and that's just on the GOP side until the inevitable coronation of Mr. Romney. The amount of money to be spent on both sides will be enough to run several mid-sized countries. Re-election campaigns are, of course, a vote on the performance of the incumbent, and Mr. Obama will have to defend his record, but the Republicans have, by their own actions, inactions, and lurch to the right in response to their hatred of all things Obama, made the choice in the election pretty clear. The stated GOP agenda has been to deny Barack Obama a second term, but other than that, they have offered nothing of substance if they win the election. That's not surprising; they never do. They live on bumper sticker slogans and ten-word answers -- Repeal Obamacare; Ban Abortion; Deport the Brown People; No More Taxes; Kill the Queers -- but they offer no solutions, unless you want to go back to revive the bold and new ideas from the administration of William McKinley. The campaign will resemble that of the one in 1948 where Harry Truman, coming back from dismal approval ratings, beat the patrician and automatonic Thomas E. Dewey. Mr. Truman ran against an intransigent and right-wing-whacky Republican Congress, and Mr. Obama has pretty much the same situation. It won't be a landslide, but unless there's a complete meltdown of the Obama campaign juggernaut, he'll win and might even win back Congress for the Democrats. It will not be the end of the right-wingers by any means; if anything, the re-election of Barack Obama will drive them even further over the cliff, and we will find out that the level of lunacy is infinite.

- The Supreme Court, by a vote of 5 to 4, will uphold the new healthcare law, and the California Prop 8 case will get on their docket for 2013.

- Despite the best efforts of the Republicans, the economy will continue to improve, but at about the same pace as it currently is, meaning that by Election Day the unemployment rate will be around 8%. Consumer confidence will continue to grow, and while the housing market will still be soft, bigger ticket items like cars and appliances will start to sell; those old cars can't run forever.

- Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker will be recalled, which will send a shiver through right-wing governors from Ohio and Michigan to Florida. As the thousands of people in the streets from Madison to Wall Street proved, you mess with the middle class at your peril, and that sleeping giant has been awakened.

- Here in Florida, Sen. Bill Nelson (D) will win another term in a tight race against Rep. Connie Mack (R), and Rep. Allen West (R) will be tossed out on his ass by the good people of Broward County. Alan Grayson (D), who lost in 2010, will win back a seat in Congress, and this will send a strong message to the Florida Democrats that if they can find some good people to run for office, they can beat Rick Scott in 2014.

- The Tigers will go all the way this year. They got very close this year, and there's always next year.

- We will lose the requisite number of celebrities and friends as life goes on. As I always say, it's important to cherish them while they are with us.

- Personally, some things never change. I'll go to the William Inge Festival in April -- my 21st time -- where we'll honor David Henry Hwang. I'll go to Stratford in July with my parents, and I'll go back to work on Tuesday. I've done some tinkering with the Pontiac as it verges on becoming a certified antique, which happens when the 2013 models go on sale. I have no plans to move or change jobs, and the only momentous thing that will happen is that I turn 60 in September. Big whoop.

- And of course, the usual prediction: One year from now I'll write a post just like this one, look back at this one, and think, "Gee, that was dumb." Or not.

Short Takes

The Iowa caucus campaign is heading into its last weekend.

Iran may be getting ready to test a long-range missile.

Syrian protesters rally to show their stuff to international monitors.

Verizon bails on its plan to add a $2 fee for on-line payments.

U.S. seals a deal to sell a lot of weapons to the U.A.E.

Friday, December 30, 2011

A Little Night Music

Allen called to remind me of the last time I saw Paris -- on this date in 1985. We were spending a few days there before going on to Italy for ten days in a villa in Castelfranco di Sopra, a tiny Tuscan village near Florence.

On this particular day, we strolled around the city, and Allen bought a set of rosary beads for his mom at Notre Dame. We then did a tour of the Louvre, and discovered, much to our chagrin, that we were out of money and the travelers' checks were safely locked in our hotel room, which was up near the Arc de Triomphe. We didn't even have enough for a taxi, so we walked from the Louvre all the way back to the hotel. It's a lovely walk... if it's springtime. But this was deep and dark December, and by the time we got back, were glace. For years it was one of our fondest memories... and still is.

Bon voyage, Allen and Terry.

What Do Teachers Make?

Whenever I write about education and teaching, I can count on getting a sneering and patronizing commenter who knocks the public schools, public education in general, and then tells me how teachers and educators have it easy. They are usually someone with the brain-power of Rick Perry, so I am all to happy to re-run this gem from Taylor Mali, who informs us exactly what teachers make.

Any questions?

HT to Elroon.

With Friends Like These

In a story that only the Very Serious People could care about, the word is that one of President Obama's problems is that he's not a schmoozer in Washington. Oh, the humanity.

Charlie, over to you.

Nobody of whom I'm aware ever thought of President Obama as Mr. Happy Fun Guy. The last guy, you may recall, was bouncy and gregarious and handed out alpha-male frat-boy nicknames, and then he got in there and screwed up the country. Moreover, if there are five people of value who still care what James Carville — let alone Gerald Rafshoon — thinks about anything, I don't know them. But perhaps the singular failure of this particular "White House Memo" is its argument that things would be better all around if the president had "reached out" to the Congress. Good god, there are even some Democrats in there saying it, which is a very good indication of the problems the president has, none of which will be solved by some discreet hand-holding over the canapes at Ben and Sally's.

We've heard this complaint from the Beltway before; the last time was about the Clintons, who were portrayed as the Your Worst Nightmare: White Trash with Money, and before that, Jimmy Carter, who was seen as too uptight and Jesusy to hang out with the vodka-and-tonic crowd. With the Obamas, the reaction seems to be along the lines of "What makes them so uppity that they can't be seen to be tipping their hat to us?"

Frankly, if the Obamas would rather not suck up to the Washington Kool Kidz, that's a feature, not a bug.

Lists

I'm not really into making lists about the best or worst things of a particular year. For instance, movies. I didn't go out to the theatre to see enough movies to make a top ten list. If you're just talking about movies, then I saw a lot of them on TV, but they were from a lot of different years. The same with books; I read them, but very few of them are new this year.

I did see a lot of the new TV shows this year. Many of them were really pretty crappy, but a couple on commercial TV stood out, such as Prime Suspect, the re-make of the British series, and Person of Interest, which is about two secretive men out to save the world. Thanks to TiVo, I discovered The Good Wife, a lawyer series with Julianna Margulies and Christine Baranski which has been on for a couple of years, and some guilty-pleasure shows like Covert Affairs, Suits, and Rizzoli and Isles, which are on cable channels. None of them is especially deep or insightful, but they're fun and they're giving actors and writers jobs in the business, and that's a far cry better than the endless cycles of reality shows such as When Barnyard Animals Attack or Real Housewives of Sugar Ridge, Ohio.

Here's an idea: if you, dear reader, would like to share your list(s), I'm all ears. In fact, I'd like to hear your recommendations for the best films, books, TV shows, or anything else you care to share for 2011. It would be fun to see what you have to say, and then I can look into them so that I can keep up.

Short Takes

Egypt raided the offices of non-governmental agencies, including three from the U.S.

Same Old -- North Korea dashes any thoughts of rapprochement with South Korea.

To Boldly Go -- China plans to expand their role in the final frontier.

Jamaica's opposition party has won election in a landslide.

Verizon ticks off the web with news of a new $2 fee for payment.

A Day Ahead -- Samoa skips Friday, December 30, align itself with its neighbors on the International Date Line.

Friday Catblogging Classic

"How do you text on this thing?"

Thursday, December 29, 2011

A Little Moore Night Music

In honor of Mary Tyler Moore's birthday.

A Little Night Music

In honor of my new toy...

High Tech

Well, I had a wonderful morning in the Keys, thank you very much. I needed that drive to clear my head, even though I still have the stubborn remainders of the cold.

On the way home, though, I decided that I would finally join the 21st century and get a cell phone that has a QWERTY keyboard and, after all these years, learn how to text. I had de-activated text messaging on my old phone because it was impossible to figure out how to send one with the old-style keypad, and I also thought that it was nothing I needed. My old phone, which I had gotten in 2005, was beginning to show signs of age, and this one works pretty much the same way as the old one; the buttons on the front are the same, and the slide-out keyboard is actually readable -- with my glasses.

The best news is that because I stayed with my same carrier and was eligible for an upgrade, the entire cost was $1.73.

I've already sent my very first text. It was to my brother, who has been after me for years to get it. And what, you may ask, was the content of that first text?

What hath God wrought?

What A Choice

Do I stay at home and putter around, or do I grab my sunglasses, put the top down, and go see the sunrise off Key Largo?

That was easy. See you later.

Random Thought

Morning Joe is re-running an interview with Dick Cheney from last September. I'm reminded that I am so glad that George W. Bush remained healthy for eight years.

Short Takes

Democracy in Action -- North Korea declares Kim Jong-un the "supreme leader."

The U.S. will be selling weapons to Iraq.

Oil prices will not be dropping below $100 a barrel any time soon.

Oops -- A New York Times e-mail to its subscribers causes massive confusion.

R.I.P -- Cheetah, 80, the chimpanzee that made Johnny Weissmuller a star.

Miami Dolphins' Jason Taylor is retiring after Sunday's game.

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