YOUR FRIENDS' ACTIVITY

    • Last Tuesday, the Susan G. Komen Foundation announced it would no longer fund clinical breast exams and mammograms through Planned Parenthood. The $680,000 per year that was going to Planned Parenthood helped provide exams for 170,000 mainly low-income and minority women. The organization claimed that they were tightening their rules for grant recipients and denying grants to any organization under investigation. (A pro-life Congressman from Florida is leading a Congressional inquiry into whether Planned Parenthood uses public money to fund abortions--an initiative many see as politically motivated.)

      On Friday, February 3 the organization abruptly reversed its decision amid a firestorm of criticism on Twitter, Facebook, and many blogs.There is little doubt that social and media pressure forced Komen to reverse its plan. The Figure shows the representative Twitter hashtags associated with Komen during the controversy, from January 31-February 3.

      Representative Twitter Hashtags for Komen During Planned Parenthood Controversy

      Sorting through over 100,000 tweets that

      Read More »
    • Yes, Washington is in fact more partisan now

      Elephant and donkey holding hands, each wearing
      Washington has never been more partisan, right? Or is that common lament simply a trick of nostalgia? A look at the numbers reveals that the problem is not, it turns out, all in our heads: over the last four decades, Congressional polarization has steadily increased.

      Since 1947, Americans for Democratic Action, a liberal advocacy group, has tracked the political positions of each Senate and House member, scoring how they voted each year on 20 key bills covering a variety of social and economic issues. (Many groups from across the political spectrum calculate lawmakers' dedication to various ideologies and causes. The Signal is merely using this group's data because it is collected over many years and is based on the controversial votes that reveal the fault lines in the House and Senate.)

      In the graph below, the colored bands indicate where the middle 50% of each party ranks on the ADA's scale. A narrower band means the heart of the party usually votes in tandem; a wider band shows that lawmakers feel a certain license to vote against the party on more occasions.
      Polarization in Congress by Sharad Goel

      Read More »
    • Mitt Romney coasted to victory in the Nevada caucuses in 2008 with over 50 percent of the vote, more than his six opponents combined. He's poised to make it two straight on Saturday. Newt Gingrich is heavily favored to take second place with about 80 percent likelihood to Ron Paul's 20 percent chance, according to the prediction markets.

      The first thing that most people associate with Nevada is Vegas. About 70 percent of the population lives in Clark County, home to Las Vegas and the surrounding metro area. In 2008, Barack Obama won the county by nearly 20 percentage points. But Nevada's primary contest is closed, meaning only registered Republicans can vote. In 2008, about 50 percent of the Republican caucus goers were from outside of Clark County. And, most importantly for Romney, roughly 1 in 5 were Mormons, who voted 9 in 10 for Romney.

      Mormons are 74 percent Republican and they have proven extremely loyal in voting for Romney, who is a leader in the Church. Thus, even relatively

      Read More »
    • Romney win captivates Twitter–for 10 minutes

      Almost immediately after polls closed at 8 p.m. ET, the major networks called the state of Florida for Mitt Romney. The markets were extremely confident in this outcome, as we noted yesterday, so there was no major movement in the overall odds for the nomination; Romney crept up about two percentage points to an 88 percent chance of being the Republican nominee for president.

      The twittersphere erupted immediately, referencing the former Massachusetts governor at a rate of nearly 500 tweets per minute--for all of 10 minutes. (That's not necessarily abrupt, as far as Twitter goes.) Queries about Romney on Yahoo! Search also briefly spiked to about 10 times their usual rate. Romney enjoyed a second, lesser, spike as he delivered his victory speech. (Ron Paul, as usual, received the highest online interest among all the candidates during the Florida speeches.)

      Our measure of Twitter sentiment found that, while the buzz around Romney was mostly negative at 8 p.m. as his victory in the

      Read More »
    • Mitt Romney holds a commanding lead in Florida's primary, with a 98.6 percent likelihood of victory, according to the political prediction markets. Newt Gingrich is 99.9 percent likely to place (i.e., first or second place--almost certainly the latter). Rick Santorum is 85 percent likely to take the bronze from Ron Paul, who holds the remaining 15 percent for third.

      It was not all smooth for Romney following Gingrich's domination in South Carolina. There was brief window of time when Gingrich was slightly more likely than Romney to win Florida. This window corresponds to when several polls showed Gingrich with a commanding lead in Florida for about 2 days, but our skepticism in Gingrich holding onto his lead was justified when the same polls quickly reversed themselves.

      Likelihoodsof Winning Florida Primary_Jan31

      Gingrich is still leading the Republican national polls; RealClearPolitics' aggregated poll trend has him leading by 2.5 percentage points over Romney. Romney has just 27.8 percentage points compared to Gingrich's 30.3

      Read More »

    Pagination

    (62 Stories)

    About The Signal

    The Signal is the Yahoo! News predictions blog featuring real-time forecasts and sentiment on politics, economics, and more. MEET THE TEAM: David Pennock, David Rothschild

    Subscribe

    [X]

    How to subscribe

    Roll over each section to subscribe using Add to My Yahoo! or RSS Feed feeds.

    Yahoo! News offers dozens of RSS feeds you can read in My Yahoo! or using third-party RSS news reader software. Click here to find out more about RSS and how you can use it with Yahoo! News.

    Meet The Signal Team

    Remake America

    In 2012, Yahoo! News will tell the nation’s story through the experiences and views of real Americans like you. Watch the first Remake America video »