February 16, 2012


Maine Republicans to Recount Votes

The Maine Republican Party "is reviewing its numbers from the presidential caucuses as pressure grows for a recount," the Portland Press Herald reports.

"An email sent to county and town chairman this afternoon asks the local officials to resubmit vote totals to the state headquarters... The email does not say when, or whether, state GOP officials will publicly correct or update the results that have been posted on the party's website since Saturday, when Mitt Romney was declared the winner over Ron Paul by less than 200 votes. Those official results were inaccurate because several communities that submitted vote totals were left out."


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DNC to Romney: Don't Bet Against America

On the day that General Motors posted a record $7.6 billion profit, the DNC uses a video to remind voters about Mitt Romney's "let them go bankrupt" line.

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Poll Finds Republicans in Deep Trouble

A new Democracy Corps (D) survey finds the Republican brand "is in a state of collapse -- over 50 percent of voters give the Republican Party a cool, negative rating. The presidential race and the congressional battles are interacting with each other to drive down their lead candidate, the party, and perceptions of the congressional Republicans."

Meanwhile, Mitt Romney "may be on the edge of political death. The shift against him is one of the biggest in the polls and he now competes with Republicans in Congress for unpopularity. In the summer of 1996, Bob Dole essentially was disqualified in voters' eyes and never really recovered his footing."

Most interesting: Voters who gave Democrats their victories in 2006 and 2008 "have returned in a big way" led by "a resurgence and re-engagement of unmarried women."


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Taking on the Kennedys

With Joseph Kennedy III (D) officially announcing his bid for Congress this morning, we're reminded of the excellent documentary, Taking on the Kennedys.

It gives a glimpse into how hard it may be for Kennedy's Republican challenger.

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Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

"Back in my days, they used Bayer aspirin for contraceptives. The gals put it between their knees and it wasn't that costly."

-- Santorum Super PAC donor Foster Freiss, in an interview on MSNBC, defending his candidate's position on contraception.

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Actress in Hoekstra Ad Apologizes

Lisa Chan, the actress in a controversial U.S. Senate campaign ad for Pete Hoekstra (R) that many said was racist, has apologized, the Napa Valley Register reports.

Said Chan: "I am deeply sorry for any pain that the character I portrayed brought to my communities. I feel horrible about my participation and I am determined to resolve my actions."


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Will Romney Skip Pre-Super Tuesday Debate?

Jim Galloway is hearing that Mitt Romney may skip the pre-Super Tuesday debate to be broadcast by CNN in Atlanta on March 1.

"One interpretation: This may be an indication of what he thinks his current chances are in both Georgia and Ohio, whose GOP organizations are sponsoring the event. Another interpretation: Romney is the candidate with the cash, and this could be his way of denying free media to his rivals on the eve of the biggest election day of the primary so far. They have the two largest caches of delegates in play on March 6."

Update: CBS News/National Journal confirms Romney will skip the debate.

Update II: CNN says it will cancel the debate after both Romney and Ron Paul said they would not attend.


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Virginia House Pushes Through Abortion Curbs

A Republican supermajority "has muscled two of the most restrictive anti-abortion bills in years through the Virginia House, including one that would all but outlaw the procedure in the state by declaring that the rights of persons apply from the moment sperm and egg unite," the AP reports.

The bill also requires women to have a "transvaginal ultrasound" before undergoing abortions.


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Perry Wants a PAC

Rick Perry sent a request to the Federal Election Commission asking if he could turn his presidential campaign into a political action committee or even possibly a so-called super PAC, the Washington Post reports.

"If Perry were to turn his campaign into a PAC, he could accept contributions of up to $5,000 from one person to donate directly to other candidates or run his own advertising supporting them. If he decides to create a super PAC instead, he could raise unlimited amounts from individuals or corporations but could only spend the money without coordinating with the candidates he was helping."


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Unemployment Claims Fall

Bloomberg: "Americans filed the fewest claims for jobless benefits since 2008, surprising forecasters and signaling that an improving labor market will give the world's largest economy a boost."

 Reuters: "New claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to a near four-year low, a government report showed on Thursday, suggesting the labor market was finally strengthening."


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Santorum Holds Big Lead in Ohio

A new Rasmussen survey in Ohio finds Rick Santorum crushing Mitt Romney, 42% to 24%. They are followed by Newt Gingrich at 13% and Ron Paul at 10%.

The Ohio primary is on March 6.


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What You Miss by Watching Television

Political Wire readers are very familiar with Rick Santorum's surge in the polls in Michigan, but Charles Franklin notes if you watched The Daily Rundown with Chuck Todd on MSNBC you wouldn't hear any of the evidence.

"NBC News standards force Todd to ignore the evidence of multiple polls from Michigan, and instead rely on one poll from a neighboring state. All to avoid saying the dread words: PPP, or ARG, or MRG or Rasmussen or Mitchell Research. Those polls all show Santorum leading Romney by from 3 to 15 points in Michigan."

"And yet NBC News standards won't allow these polls and this critically important result to be reported on the air. Why? Three are IVR ('robo-polls'), one isn't entirely clear about how interviews were conducted and one has been criticized for substantial 'house effects' in the 2008 primaries. At least that's my guess why these are not seen as meeting NBC standards, though no explicit reason was given by Todd."


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Political Intelligence?

Jon Stewart devoted his show to insider trading -- which is illegal, unless members of Congress do it in which case it's simply "honest graft."

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Bonus Quote of the Day

"It is going to be a very close, very hard fought race. But if you look at the numbers, it shouldn't be close. No president's ever been re-elected in the modern era with numbers this low a year out."

-- Karl Rove, quoted by the Daily Orange, speaking to students at Syracuse University.


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The Daily Download

Here's a site to keep an eye on: The Daily Download, which aims to be a Consumer Reports for the web.

Full disclosure: I'm on the site's board of advisors.


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What Romney Needs to Do Now

Mike Murphy: "The political terrain has changed in ways Romney never planned for. A year ago, the recession's sharp pain promised to drive an angry electorate to fire President Obama and replace him with an economic repairman. And who better to fix the economy than Romney, a highly successful businessman? Unfortunately for Romney, Republican-primary voters look at Washington and do not want a skilled repairman. They want a TNT- wielding demolition team."

"He should drop the biography-based message. Nobody wants a well-intentioned accountant in charge when the house is on fire. For the first time in his professional life, Romney needs to stop thinking and calculating and get stupid. The race now is about his heart... And while the cerebral Romney may recoil at the psychological striptease this requires, it is how people pick their President in modern America. Romney must fill that vacuum or else others will maliciously fill it for him."


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Payroll Tax Cut Showdown Avoided

"Congressional negotiators working on a deal to extend jobless benefits and a payroll-tax cut say they have come to a deal, paving the way for a vote before the policies expire at the end of the month," the Wall Street Journal reports.

New York Times: "After fighting until the very final hour over how to pay for parts of a $150 billion plan that would also extend unemployment benefits and prevent a pay cut for doctors who accept Medicare, leaders of both parties put together a bill that the majority of the committee could support."


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Santorum Has No Campaign HQ

ABC News reports Rick Santorum's lean presidential campaign doesn't even have a headquarters.

"Santorum has rejected many of the trappings of a traditional presidential candidate, particularly one who is now running neck-and-neck with Mitt Romney in national polls. And it's not just that Santorum doesn't have an official campaign headquarters."

"Santorum travels light. He does not keep a large contingent of advisers in tow as he crisscrosses the country, and he still has no paid advance staff to ensure events run smoothly. There's no one to scout locations, to test audio equipment or to come up with a Plan B when rain starts falling on the candidate, the audience and the press."


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Quote of the Day

"That won't happen."

-- Mitt Romney, when asked by the Grand Rapids Press if he could lose in Michigan to Rick Santorum.


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The Most Unpopular Politician in America

The Fix suggests Newt Gingrich may be the most unpopular person in American politics right now.

A CNN/Opinion Research poll finds 63% of all Americans viewed Gingrich unfavorably, compared to just 25% who saw him in a positive light. And a new CBS News/New York Times poll shows a similar split: 54% view Gingrich unfavorably, compared to 16% who say they feel positively predisposed towards him.

"Those 38-point spreads between his favorable and unfavorable ratings are a new high for Gingrich in the 2012 campaign and tie his worst numbers from 1997, when he faced ethics troubles and a GOP revolt during his time as speaker of the House."


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Poll Finds Santorum With Small Lead in Michigan

A Detroit News poll in Michigan shows Rick Santorum leading Mitt Romney, 34% to 30%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 12% and Ron Paul 9%.

Said pollster Richard Czuba: "Right now Michigan is not Mitt Romney's firewall. He's fighting for his political life in this state."

Santorum has leads in each of the last five Michigan polls.


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Palin Would Help a Brokered Convention

Sarah Palin told Fox Business that a brokered Republican presidential convention was a possibility and that if it happened she "would do whatever I could to help."

Said Palin: "If one of the nominees, one of the GOPers, doesn't get enough delegates, it could go to a brokered convention. If it does get to that, and someone said, 'Governor, would you be interested,' would you be interested? For one, I think that it could get to that... If it had to be closed up today, the whole nominating process, then we could be looking at a brokered convention... Nobody is quite there yet, so I think that months from now, if that is the case, all bets are off as to who it will be, willing to offer up themselves up in their name in service to their country."


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Snyder Backs Romney in Michigan

Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder (R) announced his endorsement of Mitt Romney for the GOP presidential nomination in an op-ed piece in the Detroit News:

"Let's start with one important fact. Our country has never elected a president born and raised in Michigan. Mitt Romney was born in Detroit. His father served with distinction as governor. Before that, he was president of American Motors. Mitt grew up with the prospects of the auto industry and of Michigan discussed around the dinner table. He has deep ties to our state. Mitt understands the challenges confronting Michigan as few Americans do."


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Romney Still Favored in Long Slog

Sabato's Crystal Ball: "When the remaining playing field is surveyed in its entirety, it is possible to conclude that Romney could be in better shape to win the nomination than he looks right now. While he is bound to take more losses over the next few months, particularly in Southern or Border states, Romney can go a long way toward becoming the GOP's standard-bearer within the next month by winning Michigan and Ohio. Both will be major hurdles and neither will be easy -- but then, for Romney, what really has been this year?"


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February 15, 2012


Brokered Convention Might Be Easier for Republicans

While Democrats historically are better known for botching their presidential nomination process than Republicans, Joshua Spivak notes that even if Republicans go to Tampa without any candidate having a majority of delegates, Republicans "would have an unusual advantage over the Democrats -- they need to convince fewer supporters to switch sides."

"The Republicans have less than half the delegates at their convention than the Democrats -- 2,286 versus 5,555 for the Democrats. In case it is brokered, it should make a deal easier to obtain, as fewer votes have to be switched."


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