At ForeignPolicy.com, I discuss the dangerous centrifugal forces inside Afghanistan that could push the country toward civil war once again. I conclude with some advice on how to avoid such a scenario. The article is available here.

Here’s an excerpt from my piece last month at Open Democracy on the U.S.-Taliban talks:

“The Afghan Taliban and the United States have begun talks, advancing prospects that coalition forces can withdraw from Afghanistan. But there are many potential pitfalls on the road to peace: a real risk of a political and military stalemate in Afghanistan, forcing the United States to leave the region under uncertain and possibly dangerous terms.”

Click here to read the remainder of the article.

In the National Interest, I offer five lessons for Egyptian democrats from the experience of their counterparts in Pakistan. Click here to read it.

For ForeignPolicy.com, I profile Imran Khan, rising Pakistani politician and chairman of the Pakistan Tehreek-e Insaf party. Click here to read it.

For the Diplomat, I take a look at five major potential developments to watch in Pakistan in 2012. Read the article here.

Salmaan Taseer was no angel. Like you and I, he had his shortcomings. He was human.

Unlike many prominent Pakistanis, Taseer had the courage and moral sensibility to stand up for a vulnerable woman accused of an act of blasphemy she probably did not commit. Salmaan Taseer rose up in defense of Asiya Bibi, a Christian woman, because he was human.

The late governor of Punjab was killed by a man claiming to act in God’s Name. His murderer and those who condone the wretched act allege that Taseer blasphemed by criticizing the laws that put Asiya Bibi on death row as a “black law.” But Taseer’s comments were focused on man-made legislation claiming to adhere to Islam. This legislation was added to Pakistan’s Penal Code by a military ruler, Zia-ul-Haq, during the 1980s. Pakistan’s anti-blasphemy laws besmirch the religion they seek to protect. They create an environment of persecution, not tolerance, where Christians involved in property disputes can be easily taken out of the picture with a simple accusation of disparaging Islam.

Salmaan Taseer did the right thing. Sadly, instead of being lionized, he was reviled. Many in Pakistan celebrated his death or condoned his assassination. Others were afraid to publicly condemn his murder in unequivocal terms.

The tragedy that unfolded one year ago in Islamabad was not simply that Taseer was barbarically killed by a madman. The tragedy was also that millions of ordinary people indulged in the same self-righteous lunacy as the madman.

As outsiders peered into Pakistan during those January days, many must have wondered whether this country of 180 million was not a homeland for the subcontinent’s Muslims, but an insane asylum for them, penned in between the Hindu Kush and the western edges of the Thar Desert. That Pakistan is now a metaphor used to describe a country that has fallen to antediluvian marauders is something Pakistanis should not dismiss defensively; they should take it as a valuable appraisal of what their homeland has become.

Pakistan will be a safer home for its citizens when Salmaan Taseer is recognized as a hero within and his murderer as a shameless fanatic; when its weakest have strong advocates among the powerful; and when it realizes for itself the tolerance and respect for human rights it expects of others, particularly the West.

How Pakistanis perceive Salmaan Taseer is a litmus test for the country’s collective soul. For how human it is.

My latest article analyzes last week’s anti-Shia attacks in Kabul and Mazar-e Sharif for the subscription-only World Politics Review (WPR). To view the article, you can subscribe to WPR or sign up for a free trial.

Here’s my hypothesis on what’s really going on with President Asif Ali Zardari:

Zardari’s heart is in poor condition. He may have had a heart attack or doctors detected severe blockage in his arteries. As a result, he’s had to leave the country for Dubai (possibly en route to London) to get medical care of a higher quality than what’s available in Pakistan.

Rather than being honest and forthcoming, Zardari’s spokesman, Farhatullah Babar, did what most Pakistani government officials do to their people: obscure the truth. He said Zardari is in Dubai for a routine medical checkup.

Having met with the prime minister and Senate chairman (who is first in line to succeed the president or temporarily take his place when he or she is abroad)  this weekend, it appears that something serious was going on.

That was pretty obvious to members of the Pakistani media. Some Pakistani journalists have it out for Zardari. And sensationalism results in higher ratings, higher advertising rates, and more money for media conglomerates.

So given the uncertainty of the situation — enabled by Babar not telling the truth — some Pakistani journalists took the opportunity to add some masala (spice) to the story and give Zardari trouble by claiming that there was a political element to Zardari’s sudden departure from the country. Zardari, they claimed, was being ushered out by the army in a “soft coup” and would resign within 48 hours.

Now that makes little sense. It would be difficult to hide the fact that Zardari was being pushed (illegally) out of office by the army. The army would then be condemned by a wide set of actors, including Western governments, for subverting the constitution. Zardari in exile would then play the role of political martyr, stirring up his currently disenchanted party base and possibly even do really well in the next elections.

Kayani is not one to act brashly. He wouldn’t push Zardari out right now. A more opportune moment would be at the height of a political crisis in which Zardari is the target of intense pressure from multiple political actors, while the army remains silent publicly to maintain the veneer of being apolitical. Such a moment could arise in the coming months as the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) party, emboldened by the Memogate scandal, presses forward with its campaign to force Zardari’s resignation and the Wikileaks organization releases critical information on Swiss bank accounts of elite Pakistanis and Indians, which most likely includes Zardari.

For the November edition of the Jamestown Foundation’s Militant Leadership Monitor (MLM), I have written what is probably the first publicly available English-language profile of Abu Zar al-Burmi, the mufti of the Waziristan-based Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. The MLM is only available via paid subscription, so you’ll have to be a subscriber to read the full text of my article.

Many of you Urdu speakers have heard Abu Zar’s voice before. He is the jihadi cleric debating with a counterpart from the Pakistani military in an audio recording that has spread on the Internet.

Abu Zar represents the most radical elements of Pakistan’s jihadi landscape. He and his ilk are unlikely to ever negotiate a peace with the Pakistani government. And the Pakistani government, military, and public must contend with the fact that peace talks will not end the war for some of the country’s anti-state jihadists.

Abu Zar says that his goal is shariah ya shahadat (Islamic law or martyrdom).  He will fight to the death.  Abu Zar seeks a pure Islamic state.  He says that not even a 99% Islamic state will suffice. For him, even Quaid-e Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah, the founder of Pakistan, was a kafir (infidel).

One final interesting tidbit: Abu Zar is a Pakistani national of Burmese ancestry who is the leading cleric for a jihadist group founded in Uzbekistan, but now based in Pakistan’s Waziristan. His background is truly an example of globalization — but, given the IMU’s viciousness, of its ugliest sort.

At the Daily Beast, I share my recommendations for what steps the U.S. should take after the deadly NATO raid on a Pakistani border post near Afghanistan. Read it here.