The Ugly Truth

There's this dingbat controversy afoot tonight that somehow that video of President Obama giving a speech up at Harvard Law School in 1991 has all the scary black man juicy parts edited out of it. That's the line being put out by the Breitbart empire. So PBS's Frontline, which actually has the original video, has put out the entire thing. You can see it after the jump ...

Barney in the Penalty Box

After spat on House floor, House Republicans place Rep. Barney Frank (D) in the official House Penalty Box for the remainder of the day. Must See Video.

Bachmann Back, In Fighting Form

Michele Bachmann: New "health care dictator" could decide how many babies you can have.

Newt-A-Mania

Newt Gingrich, Real American.

Hate Not

Attorneys for accused Amish hair-cutting mob say their clients' beard razing wasn't a hate crime, but just a faith-based trim.

Obama in 1990

This is pretty cool video of President Obama giving a speech on diversity at Harvard in 1990. After the jump ...

Contradiction in Terms?

How do you gently suggest to Newt Gingrich that it's time to get out of the race? Hard for me to figure. But if you've got an idea, tell Rick Santorum. He's trying.

Jinx!

Romney says his new tax plan cannot be scored.

Romney as Businessman

I noticed on twitter that David Frum, an unenthusiastic but genuine Romney supporter, said that whenever he sees Romney talking about something he clearly cares about he's reassured by the thought of his being president. It's when he's talking about things that clearly aren't big issues for him that he worries. And the problem is that it's those issues that cable TV and the political scrum get most focused on.

This reminded me of a general theory of Romney that I've had since the latter days of the 2008 race; and it's key from the point of view, I suspect, of many of Romney's most enthusiastic supporters.

So Long, Dennis

Kucinich defeated in primary by fellow incumbent Marcy Kaptur.

Jean Schmidt Goes Down to Defeat

Always controversial Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-OH) goes down to unexpected primary night defeat.

Recount?

Mitt Romney has now moved into a tiny lead in Ohio, the first time since early this evening. But here's another thing to watch. In Ohio, a candidate has to win by more than .25% of the vote to avoid a mandatory recount. In practice that means the victory has to be more than about 2,000 votes. That's just about where Romney is right now.

So there's who has the most votes tonight but there's also the margin the candidate needs to avoid a mandatory recount.

Tide Turning to Mitt

AP still shows a Santorum lead of just under 3,000 votes. But live reports from the counters in the key counties seem to suggest Romney can pick up enough to pull it out.

Woah

Another round of exits just came in in Ohio. And it's dead even.

For context, first round was Romney +4, just before 8 PM it was Romney +1.

Breathtakingly Bogus

Even by the standards of political campaigns, Newt Gingrich's bogus attack on President Obama tonight was breathtaking.

Tightening

For first time in a while, Romney's closing the gap with Santorum. 47% precincts in: Santo 38.3%, Romney 36.4%.

Looking at the Numbers

As of this moment, we have 37% of the precincts reporting. And Santorum is up by 3.2%. That's just shy 17,000 votes. But what's left in the remaining 63% of precincts. The key is that what's to come is almost certainly better for Mitt than what we've seen so far, mainly becomes a lot of Republican-leaning suburbs are lagging behind the vote count. But is it enough? Nate Silver seems to think it may not be and that Santorum -- based on all the data before us right now -- is the slight favorite. That sounds right to me, especially because Nate seems to think so too.

Romney To Speak

Mitt Romney's about to speak tonight. Very curious to hear what he says since so far tonight he's yet to win a major contested primary. My hunch is he just ignores the returns and gives the general election speech.

Ohio Tighter Than Hell

For the moment, Santorum has a 2 point lead over Romney in Ohio. That's with 18% of precincts reporting.

Let's Game This Out

So far, Rick Santorum has scored a big win in Tennessee and at least a win (according to projections just coming in from the nets) in Oklahoma. The current numbers show a close race in Ohio. But the most recent exit poll from about an hour ago shows Romney winning by a single percentage point in Ohio. That means Romney probably wins there, more likely than not.

If he does it's not a great night because he lost in Oklahoma, Tennessee and Georgia. But if he loses Ohio, which does not look likely but definitely still possible, it's a catastrophic night for Mitt.