The Afghanistan war might look like it’s jumped the rails. But its commander says that by the fall of next year, one major development will break in the U.S.’ favor: Afghan troops will take the lead for fighting the insurgency. Just don’t think most U.S. troops will come home then.
When NATO decided in 2010 to turn the war over to the Afghans in 2014, it broke down that transition into five sequential “tranches.” Four out of those five installments will be complete by “the latter part of the summer of 2013,” said Gen. John Allen, NATO’s commander in Afghanistan, who will start the final phase of transition in the early fall.
“And with that, technically, the ANSF [Afghan National Security Forces] moves into security lead, with that fifth tranche, across the entire country,” Allen told reporters at the Pentagon on Monday. “But that process will continue until we reach the end of 2014, where technically the ANSF is fully in the lead across the country.”
In other words, late summer 2013 marks the beginning of the end of U.S. combat in Afghanistan. The end won’t fully arrive until 2014. After that, the U.S. will probably mentor Afghan soldiers and cops through 2017; and the U.S. also wants a residual force in the country for years to come. And this is if things go well.
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