Richard Charnin (Truth Is All)

Election Fraud (1968-2012)

Quantitative Analysis and True Vote Models

April `15, 2012

Richard Charnin Blog

Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll

JFK Assassination: A Probability Analysis of Unnatural Witness Deaths

JFK Witness Deaths: Three Possibilities

Fixing the Exit Polls to Match the Policy

Avoiding the Election Fraud Factor: Forecasters. Political Scientists, Academics and the Media

Footprints of Election Fraud: 1988-2008 State Exit Poll Discrepancies

2000-2012 Presidential Vote Survey

Monte Carlo Simulation: 2004 Presidential Pre-election and Exit Polls

An Electoral Vote Forecast Formula: Simulation or Meta-analysis not required

Can Current Technology Insure Fair Elections? (Steven Spoonamore video)

Analytical Election Models/Databases (Google Doc spreadsheets)

1988-2008 Unadjusted Presidential State Exit Poll Aggregate: A 52-42% Democratic Margin

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model

2004-2008 County Presidential True Vote Model

2000-2004 County Presidential True Vote Model

1968-2008 Recursive National Presidential True Vote Model

2000: Unadjusted Exit Polls indicate Gore won by 51-45% (5-7 million votes)

2002 Senate Midterms Probability Analysis

2004: True Vote Model Sensitivity Analysis indicates Kerry had 53.6%- a 10 million vote Landslide

2008: Unadjusted exit polls and the True Vote Model indicate Obama had 58%- a 23 million vote margin

2010 FL, OH, PA, WI, NJ Governor Elections: A True Vote Analysis

2010 PA, WI, IL Senate Elections: A True Vote Analysis

2010-2011 Wisconsin: Senate, Governor, Supreme Court and Recall Elections

2011 Wisconsin Recalls: Exit Polls and the True Vote Model

2011 Wisconsin Supreme Court: True Vote Analysis

2012: Obama May Win the True Vote and Still Lose the Election

2012 Presidential True Vote Model Scenarios

True Vote Model: Probability Sensitivity Analysis

An Introduction to the True Vote Model

Using the Online True Vote Model

Debunking Naysayer Myths

Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ (updated 4/9/12)

Exit Poll Response Optimization: closing the book on the “reluctant Bush responder”

The unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll: closing the book on "False Recall"

False Premise: closing the book on “Swing vs. Red-shift”

Statistical Analysis

To Believe Bush Won in 2004, You Must Believe...

To Believe Obama Won the Recorded Vote by 9.5 Million...

2008 Unadjusted Exit Polls Confirm the True Vote Model

1988-2008 State Uncounted Votes and Exit Poll Analysis

Kerry Won Ohio and Florida: A True Vote Probability Analysis

Final 2004 NEP flipped 7% of Kerry responders to Bush; Final 2008 NEP flipped 13% of Obama’s to McCain

How the Final 2004 and 2008 National Exit Polls were Forced to Match the Recorded Vote

The Oregon Voting System: Statistical Evidence that it Works

Early Voting on Paper Ballots vs. Election Day Voting on Machines

Late Vote Anomalies: 2000-2008

Current TV and Election Truth

Avoiding the Election Fraud Factor: The New Hampshire Primary

New York Voting Anomalies

A Comparative Statistical Analysis of Oregon's mail-in Voting System

Oregon Mail-in Ballots vs. New York Lever Machines / Central Tabulators

Interviews and videos

Feb 20, 2012 interview on Tim Danahey's show

May 2011 interview on Jim Fetzer’s Real Deal

May 26, 2011 Video: Palm Beach County PDA

The Institutional Investor: An article by Jeffrey Kutler

2004 National Exit Poll Timeline

This refutes the myth that early exit polls were biased to Kerry. He led from 4pm with 51% (8,349 respondents) to the final 13,660 (51.7%). The exit pollsters had to switch approximately 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders to Bush in order to force the Final NEP to match the recorded vote. Given his 51.7% share of 125.7 million (Census) votes cast, Kerry won by nearly 6 million votes.The True Vote Model indicates he had 53.6% and won by 10 million.

11/02/04 3:59pm, 8349 respondents

Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.0%

http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data-1.pdf

11/02/04 7:33pm, 11027 respondents

Kerry 50.9%; Bush 47.1%

http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

11/03/04 12:22am, 13047 respondents

Kerry 51.2%; Bush 47.5%

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif

Unadjusted National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents

Kerry 51.7%; Bush 47.9%

Data Source: Roper Center (UConn)

Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate, 76000 respondents

Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.6%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=7

Final National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents (adjusted to match the recorded vote).

Bush 50.7%; Kerry 48.3%

http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

The Final was forced to match recorded vote by switching 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 respondents to Bush.

The average within precinct discrepancy (WPD) was a nearly identical 6.5%.

The True Vote Model indicates that Kerry had 53.6%.

2008

Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate, 83000 respondents

Obama 58.0%; McCain 40.5%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=1

Unadjusted National Exit Poll, 17836 respondents

Obama 61.0%; McCain 37.3%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=1

Final National Exit Poll, 17836 respondents (adjusted to match the recorded vote).

Obama 52.9%; McCain 45.8%

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1

The True Vote Model indicates that Obama had 58%.

Historical Overview

(followed by links to statistical analysis, election myths, important articles and 2004-2008 True Vote analysis tables)

Election forecasters, academics, political scientists and main stream media pundits never discuss or analyze the statistical evidence that proves election fraud is systemic - beyond a reasonable doubt. This site contains a compilation of presidential, congressional and senate election analyses based on pre-election polls, unadjusted exit polls and associated True Vote Models. Those who never discuss or analyze Election Fraud should focus on the factual statistical data and run the models. If anyone wants to refute the analytical evidence, they are encouraged to do so in a response. Election forecasters, academics and political scientists are welcome to peer review the content.

The bedrock of the evidence derives from this undisputed fact: Final national and state exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote – even if doing so requires an impossible turnout of prior election voters and implausible vote shares. All demographic categories are adjusted to conform to the recorded vote. To use these forced final exit polls as the basis for election research is unscientific and irresponsible. The research is based on the bogus premise that the recorded vote is sacrosanct and represents how people actually voted. Nothing can be further from the truth.

It is often stated that exit polls were very accurate in elections prior to 2004, but have deviated sharply from the vote since. The statement is a misconception; it is based on a comparison of FINAL exit polls in elections prior to 2004 and PRELIMINARY exit polls since. It's apples and oranges. But FINAL exit polls published in the media have always been FORCED to match the RECORDED vote. That's why they APPEAR to have been accurate.

The RECORDED vote has deviated sharply from the TRUE VOTE in EVERY election since 1968. Yes, it is true: UNADJUSTED exit polls have ALWAYS been accurate. They closely matched the True Vote in 2000, 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2010. FINAL exit polls have exactly matched the fraudulent RECORDED vote because they have been forced to do so.

It is a documented fact that millions of votes are uncounted in every election. The Census Bureau indicates that since 1968, approximately 80 million more votes were cast than recorded. And these are just the uncounted votes. What about the votes switched on unverifiable voting machines and central tabulators? But vote miscounts are only part of the story. The True Vote analysis does not include the millions of potential voters who were illegally disenfranchised and never got to vote.

My book, Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes, and the National Exit Poll, is a detailed analysis which proves that the recorded vote is always different from the True Vote. Unlike the misinformation spread in the media, voting machine “glitches” are not due to machine failures. It’s the fault of the humans who program them.

In the 1968-2008 Presidential elections, the Republicans won the recorded vote by a 49-45% margin. The Recursive National True Vote Model indicates that the Democrats actually won by 49-45%.

In the 1988-2008 elections, the Democrats won the average of the unadjusted state exit polls 51.6-41.8%. The 3% exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 148 state elections, of which 138 shifted to the Republican. The proof is in the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State Exit Polls Statistical Reference.

In 1988, Bush defeated Dukakis by 7 million recorded votes. But 11 million ballots uncounted. Approximately 75% of uncounted votes are Democratic. It was a very close election. Dukakis won the unadjusted exit polls in 24 battleground states by 51-47% . He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 50-49%. In 1992, the Collier brothers wrote “Votescam”, a classic expose which provided evidence that Bush Sr. stole the election by rigging the voting machines.

In 1992, Clinton defeated Bush by 5.8 million recorded votes (43.0-37.5%), but once again, nearly 10 million were uncounted. In order to match the recorded vote, the National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible 119% turnout of living 1988 Bush voters in 1992. The unadjusted state exit polls had Clinton winning an 18 million vote landslide (48-32%). The True Vote Model indicates that Clinton won by 50-31% with 19% voting for third party candidate Ross Perot.

In 2000, Al Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin compared to the 540,000 recorded. There were nearly 6 million uncounted votes. But the Supreme Court awarded the election to Bush (271-267 EV) when they stopped the recount in Florida – where 185,000 ballots were uncounted. The following states flipped from Gore in the exit poll to Bush in the recorded vote: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC TN TX VA. Gore would have won the election if he captured just one of the states. Democracy died in this election.

In July 2004 I began posting weekly 2004 Election Model projections based on the state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo Simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final projection had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes and 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.

The Final 2004 National Exit Poll was mathematically impossible since it indicated that there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters - but he had just 50.5 million recorded votes. Only 48 million were alive in 2004. Approximately 46 million voted, therefore the Final overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 6-7 million. The Final NEP implied that there was an impossible 110% turnout of living 2000 Bush voters in 2004. The post-election True Vote Model calculated a feasible turnout of living 2000 voters based on Census total votes cast (recorded plus net uncounted), a 1.25% annual mortality rate and 98% Gore/Bush voter turnout. It determined that Kerry won by 67-57 million and had 379 EV.

But there was much further confirmation of a Kerry landslide. Consider Final NEP adjustments made to Bush’s approval rating and Party–ID crosstabs.

Bush had a 48% national approval rating in the final 11 pre-election polls. But the Final NEP indicated that he had a 53% rating – even though he had just 50% in the unadjusted state exit poll weighted aggregate. Given the 3% differential between the Final NEP and state exit poll approval ratings, let’s deduct 3% from his 48% pre-election approval, giving him a 45% vote share. That is a virtual match to the True Vote Model (which Kerry won by 53.5-45.5%). The exit pollsters inflated Bush’s final pre-election 48% average rating by 5% in the Final NEP order to force a match to the recorded vote - and perpetuate the fraud. Kerry’s 51.7% unadjusted state exit poll aggregate understated his True Vote Model share. There was a near-perfect 0.99 correlation ratio between Bush‘s state approval and unadjusted exit poll share.

The unadjusted state exit poll aggregate Democratic/Republican Party ID split was 38.8-35.1%. As they did in all demographic crosstabs, the pollsters had to force the Final National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote; they needed to specify a bogus 37-37% split. The correlation between state Republican Party ID and the Bush unadjusted shares was a near-perfect 0.93.

This chart displays the state unadjusted Bush exit poll share, approval ratings and Party-ID.

The Final 2006 National Exit Poll indicated that the Democrats had a 52-46% vote share. The Generic Poll Trend Forecasting Model projected that the Democrats would capture 56.43% of the vote. It was within 0.06% of the unadjusted exit poll.

In the 2008 Primaries, Obama did significantly better than his recorded vote.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% share (a 9.5 million margin). But the model understated his True Vote. The forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. The registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% - before undecided voter allocation. The landslide was denied.

The Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote by indicating an impossible 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters and 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Given Kerry’s 5% unadjusted 2004 exit poll and 8% True Vote margin, one would expect 7 million more returning Kerry than Bush voters – a 19 million discrepancy from the Final 2008 NEP. Another anomaly: The Final 2008 NEP indicated there were 5 million returning third party voters - but only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004. Either the 2008 NEP or the 2004 recorded third-party vote share (or both) was wrong. The True Vote Model determined that Obama won by over 22 million votes with 420 EV. His 58% share was within 0.1% of the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

In the 2010 Midterms, the statistical evidence indicates that many elections for House, Senate and Governor were stolen. The Wisconsin True Vote Model contains worksheets for Senate, Governor, Supreme Court and Recall elections. A serious analyst can run them and see why it is likely that they were stolen.

Debunking the Exit Poll Naysayers and Gatekeepers of the Left

Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

An Open Letter to Salon’s Farhad Manjoo

An Open Letter to John Fund (WSJ): Election Fraud, not Voter Fraud

An Open Letter to Mark Blumenthal at Pollster.com

Debunking the Mystery Pollster’s Critique of the RFK Rolling Stone Article

A Reply to Howard Stanislevic's "Return to Innocence"

Calling Out the New York Lever Voting Shills

An Open Letter to Nate Silver

An Open Letter to Nate Silver (Part 2)

Twenty-five Questions for Nate Silver

A Reply to Nate Silver's “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls”

Zogby vs. Silver: 1996-2008 True vs. Recorded Vote Pollster Rankings

Deleted: A Comment on the Nate Silver / NY Times blog

The Research 2000 Pile-on

An Open Letter to Markos Moulitsas at Daily Kos

2008 Tracking Poll Volatility Analysis: R2K vs. Gallup

What the Pollsters and Pundits Won’t Tell You

Election Fraud Lockdown

Myths and Disinformation

Election Myths

Reluctant Bush Responder

Swing vs. Red shift: 1992-2004

Swing vs. Red shift: Hoisted on its own Petard

False Recall: A Rebuttal

A Conversation about False Recall

False Recall: Hoisted on its own Petard

False Recall: Exposed by the Final National Exit Poll

Uncounted and Switched Votes

Uncounted, Stuffed and Switched Ballots

Required Turnout: The Phantom Bush Voter Society

2011 Wisconsin Supreme Court and Recall Elections

Recall Elections: An Exit Poll, Recorded and True Vote Comparison

Will the Wisconsin Democratic Recall Elections Be Stolen? A True Vote Analysis

Did the GOP Steal the Wisconsin Recall Elections? A True Vote Analysis

Wisconsin Recall Election Projections

Wisconsin Supreme Court County Vote Analysis

2010 Midterms

House and Senate Forecasting Model

Post-election Analysis: RV/ LV Polls. Exit Polls and Recorded Votes

Governor True Vote

Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Jersey

Senate True Vote

Comparative Summary

Wisconsin

Illinois

Pennsylvania

Massachusetts: Coakley won the Hand Counts

2008

Election Fraud Analytics

The Primaries: Footprints of Election Fraud

Proof that Obama won by much more than 9.5 million votes

A Conversation about the 2008 Election

2006

Midterms Overview

Quantifying the Risk

Generic Poll Trend Forecasting Model

2004

Electoral Vote Forecasting: Monte Carlo Simulation

2004 Election Model

State Pre-election Polling Trend

National RV and LV Poll Trend

A Conversation about the 2004 Election

Simple Numerical Proof of 2004 Election Fraud

Returning 2000 and New Voters: Proof that Kerry Won

County Votes: Florida, Ohio, New York

2000/2004 Recorded State Votes by Voting Method

Exit Pollsters Edison-Mitofsky: 2004 Evaluation Report

USCV: Exit Poll analysis

USCV: Ohio 2004 Precinct Exit Polls

Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide

Introduction: To Believe Bush Won...

1. When Decided

2. Bush Approval Ratings

3. The Final 5 Million Recorded Votes

4. The Final Exit Poll: Forced to Match the Vote

5. Within Precinct Discrepancy

6. New Voters

7. Party ID

8. Gender

9. Implausible Gore Voter Defection

10. Voter Turnout

11. Urban Legend

12. Location Size

13. Sensitivity Analysis

14. Did Kerry Win 360 EV?

15. Election Simulation Analysis

16. Exit Poll Response Optimization

17. Florida

18. Ohio

19. New York

Appendix

A. Election Model: Nov.1 Projection

B. Interactive Monte Carlo Simulation: Pre-election and Exit Polls

C. 1988-2004 Election Calculator: The True Vote

D. The 2000-2004 County Vote Database

E. Statistics and Probability: Mathematics of Polling

2000

2000 Unadjusted Exit Polls Indicate a Gore Landslide

Miami-Herald: Gore won Florida by 46,000 votes!

Truthseekers

Stolen Election Videos

Keith Olbermann on 2004 Voting Irregularities

Bib Fitrakis: Missing Votes in Ohio 2006 Midterms

Op Ed News interview: Bob Fitrakis on new evidence of the 2004 Ohio stolen election

Free Press: New court filing reveals how the 2004 Ohio presidential election was hacked

Michael Collins: The Urban Legend

Sheila Parks: 2011 Wisconsin Uprising: The New Florida and Ohio?

Jonathan Simon, Election Defense Alliance: Landslide Denied

Michael Keefer: Footprints of Electoral Fraud

Election Fraud in America

Evidence of Fraud in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election: A Reader

The 2006 US Midterms: Another Stolen Election?

The Strange Death of American Democracy: Endgame in Ohio

Greg Palast: Kerry Won

Recipe for a Cooked Election

Thom Hartmann: Evidence Mounts that the Vote May Have Been Hacked

Steven F. Freeman: The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy

Hypotheses for Explaining the 2004 Presidential Exit Poll Discrepancy

Prof. John Allen Paulos: Final Tallies - Exit Polls: A Statistical Mystery

Robert Koehler: Silent Scream of The Numbers

Robert F. Kennedy Jr: Was the 2004 Election Stolen?

Mark Crispin Miller: None Dare Call It Stolen

Some Might Call it Treason – An Open Letter to Salon

Jim Lampley: The Biggest Story of Our Lives;

Apologies; Ostriches; Revisiting the Biggest Story

Paul Lehto: Presidential Vote Recount Rigging in Ohio

Evidence of Election Irregularities in Snohomish County, WA

Ion Sancho, Leon Cty (FL) Supervisor of Elections: The Hursti Hack

Lynn Landes: Voting Security

Rebecca Mercuri, Ph.D.: Electronic Voting

Victoria Collier: A Brief History of Computerized Election Fraud in America

Diane Perlman: The Silence of the Scams: Psychological Resistance to Facing Election Fraud

__________________________________________________________________________

Miscellaneous

Roper Center (UConn) U.S. Elections Data: 1976-2008

Reference Links

Postings (2004-2005)

Postings since 2005

1988-2008 Election Calculator

Interactive 2004 Election Simulation

Monte Carlo 2004 Polling Simulation

Historical Voting Machine Timeline

The 2004 Election Fraud Beginners Guide

Eye on Ohio: The Informed Citizen’s Guide to the 2004 Election

US Count Votes/National Election Data Archive

US Count Votes: History of the Debate Surrounding the 2004 Presidential Election

DrDebug: http://rigorousintuition.yuku.com/forum/viewtopic/id/845

DUers byronius and autorank: http://www.truthisall.net/

Recursive True Vote Model (1968-2008)

	Recorded		True Vote		Margin	True Returning Voter Mix
	Dem	Rep	Dem	Rep	Error	DNV	Dem	Rep	Other
2008	52.9%	45.6%	58.1%	40.3%	-10.5%	12.4%	46.9%	39.5%	1%
2004	48.3%	50.7%	53.6%	45.4%	-10.6%	17.9%	41.3%	37.7%	3%
2000	48.4%	47.9%	50.3%	46.0%	-3.9%	13.6%	46.1%	32.0%	8%
1996	49.2%	40.7%	53.4%	37.1%	-7.8%	9.4%	46.2%	27.9%	17%
1992	43.0%	37.4%	50.9%	30.8%	-14.6%	16.4%	41.5%	41.2%	1%
1988	45.6%	53.4%	49.6%	49.3%	-8.1%	11.0%	37.5%	50.9%	1%
1984	40.6%	58.8%	42.1%	57.2%	-3.1%	17.6%	35.2%	40.3%	7%
1980	41.0%	50.7%	42.7%	48.9%	-3.5%	16.8%	44.1%	37.6%	1%
1976	50.1%	48.0%	53.0%	45.2%	-5.7%	11.7%	35.7%	50.0%	3%
1972	36.2%	60.7%	40.4%	56.6%	-8.2%	19.5%	36.5%	33.7%	10%
1968	42.9%	43.6%	45.3%	41.9%	-4.1%	-	-	-	-
Avg	45.3%	48.9%	49.0%	45.3%	-7.3%	14.6%	41.1%	39.1%	5.2%

1968-2008 Final National Exit Poll – forced to match the recorded vote

	Recorded		Final NEP Voter Mix				Turnout required to match recorded vote
	Dem	Rep	DNV	Dem	Rep	Other	Dem	Rep	Other
2008	52.9%	45.6%	13%	37%	46%	4%	87%	103%	451%
2004	48.3%	50.7%	17%	37%	43%	3%	93%	110%	98%
2000	48.4%	47.9%	18%	41%	33%	8%	96%	93%	92%
1996	49.2%	40.7%	13%	38%	31%	18%	86%	80%	80%
1992	43.0%	37.4%	18%	28%	53%	1%	74%	119%	85%
1988	45.6%	53.4%	8%	33%	58%	1%	85%	103%	93%
1984	40.6%	58.8%	16%	34%	44%	6%	93%	98%	81%
1980	41.0%	50.7%	16%	42%	41%	1%	94%	95%	59%
1976	50.1%	48.0%	15%	30%	53%	3%	91%	96%	89%
1972	36.2%	60.7%	11%	35%	44%	10%	92%	113%	83%
1968	42.9%	43.6%	20%	49%	31%	-	93%	99%	-
Avg	45.30%	48.90%	14.50%	35.50%	44.60%	5.40%	89%	101%	121%

Final 2004 National Exit Poll - forced to match recorded vote

(Impossible 110% turnout of Bush 2000 voters and final vote share adjustments)

National	2000	2000		2004		Vote shares			---Votes (000)---
	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Turnout	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other	Turnout
DNV	-	-	-	20,790	17%	54%	44%	2%	11,227	9,148	416	-
Gore	55,436	51,004	48,454	45,249	37%	90%	10%	0%	40,724	4,525	0	93.4%
Bush	51,376	50,460	47,937	52,586	43%	9%	91%	0%	4,733	47,853	0	109.7%
Other	4,160	3,953	3,756	3,669	3%	64%	14%	22%	2,348	514	807	97.7%
NEP	110,973	105,417	100,147	122,294	100.0%	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%	59,031	62,039	1,223	101.4%
2000	Gore	Bush	Other	Recorded	252 EV	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%	59,028	62,041	1,224	122,294

2004 True Vote Model

(12:22 am NEP vote shares; feasible 98% turnout of Election 2000 voters)

National	2000	2000		2004		Vote Shares			---Votes (000)---
	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Turnout	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other	Turnout
DNV	-	-	-	22,421	17.8%	57%	41%	2%	12,780	9,193	448	-
Gore	55,997	51,004	53,197	52,133	41.5%	91%	9%	0%	47,441	4,692	0	98.0%
Bush	50,870	50,460	48,327	47,360	37.7%	10%	90%	0%	4,736	42,624	0	98.0%
Other	4,106	3,953	3,901	3,823	3.0%	64%	14%	22%	2,447	535	841	98.0%
True	110,973	105,417	105,424	125,737	100.0%	53.61%	45.37%	1.03%	67,404	57,044	1,289	98.0%
2000	Gore	Bush	Other	Recorded	252 EV	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%	59,028	62,041	1,224	122,294
Recorded	48.38%	47.87%	3.75%	Discrepancy	-	5.34%	-5.36%	0.02%	8,375	(4,997)	65

Final 2008 National Exit Poll

(Forced to match recorded vote, impossible 103% Bush and 452% third-party turnout of 2004 Election voters)

National	2004	2004		2008		Vote Shares			---Votes (000)---
	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Turnout	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other	Obama	McCain	Other	Turnout
DNV	-	-	-	17,078	13%	71%	27%	2%	12,125	4,611	342	-
Kerry	62,158	59,028	56,077	48,607	37%	89%	9%	2%	43,260	4,375	972	86.7%
Bush	62,313	62,041	58,939	60,430	46%	17%	82%	1%	10,273	49,553	604	102.5%
Other	1,266	1,224	1,163	5,255	4%	72%	26%	2%	3,783	1,366	105	451.7%
NEP	125,737	122,294	116,179	131,370	100%	52.86%	45.60%	1.54%	69,442	59,905	2,023	98.4%
2004	Kerry	Bush	Other	Recorded	365 EV	52.87%	45.62%	1.51%	69,457	59,935	1,978	131,370

2008 True Vote Model

(Feasible 97% turnout of 2004 Election voters)

National	2004	2004		2008		Vote shares			---Votes (000)---
	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Turnout	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other	Obama	McCain	Other	Turnout
DNV	-	-	-	16,441	12.4%	71%	27%	2%	11,673	4,439	329	-
Kerry	67,370	59,028	64,001	62,081	46.9%	89%	9%	2%	55,252	5,587	1,242	97.0%
Bush	56,657	62,041	53,824	52,210	39.5%	17%	82%	1%	8,876	42,812	522	97.0%
Other	1,710	1,224	1,625	1,576	1.2%	72%	26%	2%	1,135	410	32	97.0%
True	125,737	122,294	119,450	132,308	100%	58.15%	40.25%	1.61%	76,936	53,248	2,124	97.0%
2004	Kerry	Bush	Other	Recorded	365 EV	52.87%	45.62%	1.51%	69,457	59,935	1,978	131,370
Recorded	48.268%	50.731%	1.001%	Discrepancy	-	5.28%	-5.38%	0.10%	7,479	(6,687)	146

The True Vote calculations used the same Final 2008 National Exit Poll vote shares that were forced to match the recorded vote.

So there can be no argument there.

The 103% turnout of living 2004 Bush voters as indicated in the Final 2008 NEP was impossible.

So there can be no argument there.

The 5.25 million returning 2004 third-party voters as indicated in the Final 2008 NEP was impossible.

So there can be no argument there.

Impossible 2004 (110%) and 2008 (103%) returning voter turnout was replaced by feasible 98% and 97% rates.

So there can be no argument there.

					2004	True Vote Analysis
	National
	2000	Method:							Turnout in 2004			Unctd
	Cast	Recorded	Unctd	Alive	Cast	Recorded	Unctd	Died	Gore	Bush	Gore	Bush	Other
	110.8	105.4	5.4	105.3	125.7	122.3	3.4	6.1	98%	98%	75%	24%	1%
	-	95.1%	4.9%	95.0%	-	97.3%	2.7%	5.0%	-	-	0%	100%	-
	National		Vote (mil)				Vote Share (%)			Vote (mil)
MoE	2000	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Turnout	Pct	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other	Turnout
1.7%	DNV	-	-	-	22.42	17.8	57.0	41.0	2.0	12.78	9.19	0.45
1.0%	Gore	56.00	51.00	53.20	52.13	41.5	91.0	9.0	0.0	47.44	4.69	0.00	98%
1.0%	Bush	50.87	50.46	48.33	47.36	37.7	10.0	90.0	0.0	4.74	42.62	0.00	98%
1.7%	Other	4.11	3.95	3.90	3.82	3.0	64.0	14.0	22.0	2.45	0.54	0.84	98%
	True	110.97	105.42	105.42	125.74	National	53.61	45.37	1.03	67.40	57.04	1.29	125.74
					State Model		53.65	45.35	1.00	67.46	57.02	1.26	125.74
					Electoral Vote		370	168
	2000	Gore	Bush	Other	Recorded Vote		48.27	50.73	1.00	59.03	62.04	1.22	122.29
	Recorded	48.38	47.87	3.75	True – Recorded		5.34	(5.36)	0.02	8.38	(5.00)	0.06	3.44
	Cast	49.95	46.30	3.75	Exit Poll		51.97	47.08	0.95	63.55	57.58	1.17	122.29
	Exit Poll	49.39	46.86	3.75	True – Exit Poll		1.64	(1.71)	0.07	3.85	(0.53)	0.12	3.44

Sensitivity Analysis

(changes to base case)

Bush		Gore voter turnout				Share of		Kerry Share of DNV				Share of		Kerry Share of Gore				Gore		Kerry share of DNV
turnout	90%	92%	94%	96%	98%	Bush	55%	56%	57%	58%	59%	Bush	89%	90%	91%	92%	93%	turnout	55%	56%	57%	58%	59%
		Kerry Share (%)						Kerry Share (%)						Kerry Share (%)						Kerry share (%)
90%	53.9	54.2	54.5	54.8	55.1	12%	54.0	54.2	54.4	54.6	54.7	12%	53.6	54.0	54.4	54.8	55.2	98%	53.3	53.5	53.6	53.8	54.0
92%	53.5	53.8	54.1	54.4	54.7	11%	53.6	53.8	54.0	54.2	54.4	11%	53.2	53.6	54.0	54.4	54.8	96%	53.0	53.2	53.3	53.5	53.7
94%	53.2	53.5	53.8	54.1	54.3	10%	53.3	53.5	53.6	53.8	54.0	10%	52.8	53.2	53.6	54.0	54.5	94%	52.7	52.9	53.1	53.2	53.4
96%	52.8	53.1	53.4	53.7	54.0	9%	52.9	53.1	53.3	53.4	53.6	9%	52.4	52.8	53.3	53.7	54.1	92%	52.4	52.6	52.8	53.0	53.2
98%	52.5	52.8	53.1	53.3	53.6	8%	52.5	52.7	52.9	53.1	53.2	8%	52.0	52.5	52.9	53.3	53.7	90%	52.1	52.3	52.5	52.7	52.9
		Kerry Margin (mil.)						Kerry Margin (mil.)						Kerry Margin (mil.)						Kerry margin (mil.)
90%	11.2	11.9	12.6	13.3	14.0	12%	11.4	11.9	12.3	12.8	13.2	12%	10.2	11.3	12.3	13.4	14.4	98%	9.5	10.0	10.4	10.9	11.3
92%	10.3	11.0	11.7	12.4	13.1	11%	10.5	10.9	11.4	11.8	12.3	11%	9.3	10.3	11.4	12.4	13.5	96%	8.8	9.3	9.7	10.2	10.7
94%	9.4	10.1	10.8	11.5	12.2	10%	9.5	10.0	10.4	10.9	11.3	10%	8.3	9.4	10.4	11.5	12.5	94%	8.0	8.5	9.0	9.5	10.0
96%	8.5	9.2	9.9	10.6	11.3	9%	8.6	9.0	9.5	9.9	10.4	9%	7.4	8.4	9.5	10.5	11.6	92%	7.3	7.8	8.3	8.8	9.3
98%	7.6	8.3	9.0	9.7	10.4	8%	7.6	8.1	8.5	9.0	9.4	8%	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.6	10.6	90%	6.6	7.1	7.6	8.2	8.7
		Kerry Electoral Vote						Kerry Electoral Vote						Kerry Electoral Vote						Kerry Electoral Vote
90%	370	370	370	380	400	12%	370	370	370	391	400	12%	370	370	370	400	400	98%	370	370	370	370	370
92%	370	370	370	370	391	11%	370	370	370	370	380	11%	370	370	370	370	400	96%	370	370	370	370	370
94%	370	370	370	370	370	10%	370	370	370	370	370	10%	357	370	370	370	370	94%	340	346	370	370	370
96%	340	370	370	370	370	9%	346	370	370	370	370	9%	340	357	370	370	370	92%	340	340	340	370	370
98%	340	340	370	370	370	8%	340	340	346	370	370	8%	340	340	346	370	370	90%	325	340	340	340	357
MoE	1.04%	0.94%	0.82%	0.68%	0.49%	MoE	1.72%	1.72%	1.72%	1.71%	1.70%	MoE	1.08%	1.04%	0.99%	0.94%	0.88%	MoE	1.72%	1.72%	1.72%	1.71%	1.70%

State Model: Recorded, Exit Poll and True Vote Shares

	2004	Recorded			Exit Poll				Model				Flipped to
	Kerry	Bush	Margin	EV	Kerry	Bush	Margin	EV	Kerry	Bush	Margin	EV	Bush
Votes	59.03	62.04	(3.01)	252	65.34	59.20	6.14	338	67.46	57.02	10.45	370	118 EV
Share	48.27	50.73	(2.46)		51.97	47.08	4.89		53.65	45.35	8.31		10states
AL	36.8	62.5	(25.6)		41.8	57.5	(15.6)		47.2	52.1	(5.0)
AK	35.5	61.1	(25.5)		40.2	56.4	(16.2)		38.9	57.7	(18.8)
AZ	44.4	54.9	(10.5)		44.5	54.7	(10.2)		48.9	50.3	(1.4)
AR	44.5	54.3	(9.8)		45.2	53.7	(8.5)		50.3	48.5	1.8	6	6
CA	54.3	44.4	9.9	55	60.1	38.6	21.5	55	60.2	38.5	21.6	55
CO	47.0	51.7	(4.7)		50.1	48.6	1.4	9	51.8	46.9	4.8	9	9
CT	54.3	43.9	10.4	7	62.3	35.9	26.4	7	60.9	37.3	23.6	7
DE	53.3	45.8	7.6	3	61.3	37.8	23.5	3	61.7	37.4	24.2	3
DC	89.2	9.3	79.8	3	90.6	7.9	82.6	3	90.6	7.9	82.6	3
FL	47.1	52.1	(5.0)		51.0	48.2	2.8	27	52.9	46.3	6.6	27	27
GA	41.4	58.0	(16.6)		42.0	57.3	(15.3)		48.1	51.2	(3.1)
HI	54.0	45.3	8.7	4	58.1	41.2	16.9	4	60.8	38.5	22.2	4
ID	30.3	68.4	(38.1)		32.3	66.4	(34.1)		33.9	64.7	(30.8)
IL	54.8	44.5	10.3	21	56.6	42.7	13.8	21	59.9	39.4	20.5	21
IN	39.3	59.9	(20.7)		40.4	58.8	(18.5)		46.0	53.2	(7.2)
IA	49.2	49.9	(0.7)		50.7	48.4	2.3	7	51.6	47.5	4.1	7	7
KS	36.6	62.0	(25.4)		37.2	61.5	(24.3)		43.8	54.8	(11.0)
KY	39.7	59.6	(19.9)		39.9	59.4	(19.5)		43.5	55.8	(12.3)
LA	42.2	56.7	(14.5)		43.5	55.4	(11.9)		48.4	50.5	(2.2)
ME	53.6	44.6	9.0	4	55.6	42.6	13.0	4	56.4	41.8	14.6	4
MD	55.9	42.9	13.0	10	59.6	39.3	20.3	10	61.5	37.4	24.1	10
MA	61.9	36.8	25.2	12	65.8	32.9	32.9	12	67.3	31.4	35.8	12
MI	51.2	47.8	3.4	17	54.4	44.6	9.8	17	55.6	43.4	12.2	17
MN	51.1	47.6	3.5	10	55.7	43.0	12.7	10	54.9	43.8	11.0	10
MS	39.8	59.4	(19.7)		49.0	50.2	(1.2)		48.1	51.1	(3.1)
MO	46.1	53.3	(7.2)		49.0	50.4	(1.4)		50.4	49.0	1.5	11	11
MT	38.6	59.1	(20.5)		37.3	60.4	(23.1)		39.6	58.0	(18.3)
NE	32.7	65.9	(33.2)		37.0	61.5	(24.5)		40.9	57.7	(16.8)
NV	47.9	50.5	(2.6)		52.8	45.5	7.3	5	54.7	43.7	11.0	5	5
NH	50.2	48.9	1.4	4	57.2	41.9	15.4	4	54.9	44.2	10.7	4
NJ	52.9	46.2	6.7	15	57.5	41.7	15.8	15	59.4	39.7	19.7	15
NM	49.0	49.8	(0.8)		53.0	45.8	7.2	5	52.7	46.2	6.5	5	5
NY	58.4	40.1	18.3	31	64.5	34.0	30.5	31	65.1	33.3	31.8	31
NC	43.6	56.0	(12.4)		49.5	50.1	(0.5)		51.3	48.3	3.0	15	15
ND	35.5	62.9	(27.4)		34.6	63.7	(29.1)		38.6	59.8	(21.2)
OH	48.7	50.8	(2.1)		54.0	45.5	8.5	20	53.6	45.9	7.7	20	20
OK	34.4	65.6	(31.1)		33.8	66.2	(32.3)		39.6	60.4	(20.8)
OR	51.3	47.2	4.2	7	52.2	46.3	6.0	7	53.6	44.9	8.7	7
PA	50.9	48.4	2.5	21	55.1	44.2	10.9	21	55.3	44.1	11.2	21
RI	59.4	38.7	20.8	4	62.1	36.0	26.1	4	65.5	32.6	32.9	4
SC	40.9	58.0	(17.1)		45.8	53.1	(7.4)		47.7	51.2	(3.5)
SD	38.4	59.9	(21.5)		35.9	62.5	(26.6)		41.7	56.7	(15.0)
TN	42.5	56.8	(14.3)		43.2	56.1	(13.0)		48.7	50.6	(2.0)
TX	38.2	61.1	(22.9)		42.0	57.3	(15.3)		43.7	55.6	(11.9)
UT	26.0	71.5	(45.5)		28.1	69.4	(41.2)		32.5	65.0	(32.5)
VT	58.9	38.8	20.1	3	66.5	31.2	35.3	3	59.7	38.0	21.7	3
VA	45.5	53.7	(8.2)		49.8	49.3	0.5	13	50.2	48.9	1.3	13	13
WA	52.8	45.6	7.2	11	56.8	41.6	15.2	11	57.2	41.3	15.9	11
WV	43.2	56.1	(12.9)		40.2	59.0	(18.8)		46.3	53.0	(6.8)
WI	49.7	49.3	0.4	10	52.1	46.9	5.2	10	52.2	46.8	5.4	10
WY	29.1	68.9	(39.8)		32.6	65.4	(32.8)		35.0	62.9	(27.9)

State Exit Poll Timeline

		FINAL EXIT			UNADJUSTED EXIT POLLS												12:40AM
		RECORDED			WPE / IMS						BEST GEO						COMPOSITE
	Kerry	Bush	Margin	EV	Kerry	Bush	Margin	WPE	EV	Kerry	Bush	Margin	Error	EV	Kerry	Bush	Margin	Error	EV
Total	48.27	50.73	(2.46)	251	51.97	47.03	4.94	7.39	337	51.04	48.49	2.56	5.01	301	50.26	49.11	1.15	3.60	288
AL	36.8	62.5	(25.6)		41.8	57.5	(15.6)	10.0		42.0	57.5	(15.5)	10.1		40.6	58.7	(18.1)	7.5
AK	35.5	61.1	(25.5)		40.2	56.4	(16.2)	9.3		41.2	57.4	(16.2)	9.3		39.0	58.8	(19.8)	5.7
AZ	44.4	54.9	(10.5)		44.5	54.7	(10.2)	0.3		46.5	53.5	(7.0)	3.5		46.8	53.2	(6.4)	4.1
AR	44.5	54.3	(9.8)		45.2	53.7	(8.5)	1.3		46.8	52.4	(5.6)	4.2		47.0	52.2	(5.2)	4.6
CA	54.3	44.4	9.9	55	60.1	38.6	21.5	11.6	55	56.5	43.5	13.0	3.1	55	56.5	43.5	13.0	3.1	55
CO	47.0	51.7	(4.7)		50.1	48.6	1.4	6.1	9	47.0	52.5	(5.5)	(0.8)		47.7	51.4	(3.7)	1.0
CT	54.3	43.9	10.4	7	62.3	35.9	26.4	16.0	7	59.3	39.6	19.7	9.3	7	58.1	40.5	17.6	7.2	7
DE	53.3	45.8	7.6	3	61.3	37.8	23.5	15.9	3	61.5	37.9	23.6	16.0	3	57.7	41.2	16.5	8.9	3
DC	89.2	9.3	79.8	3	90.6	7.9	82.6	2.8	3	91.1	8.1	83.0	3.2	3	90.2	8.4	81.8	2.0	3
FL	47.1	52.1	(5.0)		51.0	48.2	2.8	7.8	27	49.2	50.3	(1.1)	3.9		49.3	50.1	(0.8)	4.2
GA	41.4	58.0	(16.6)		42.0	57.3	(15.3)	1.3		43.5	56.5	(13.0)	3.6		43.0	57.1	(14.1)	2.5
HI	54.0	45.3	8.7	4	58.1	41.2	16.9	8.2	4	56.5	43.4	13.1	4.4	4	53.6	46.4	7.2	(1.5)	4
ID	30.3	68.4	(38.1)		32.3	66.4	(34.1)	4.0		30.9	69.1	(38.2)	(0.1)		31.6	68.3	(36.7)	1.4
IL	54.8	44.5	10.3	21	56.6	42.7	13.8	3.5	21	57.5	42.6	14.9	4.6	21	57.0	42.9	14.1	3.8	21
IN	39.3	59.9	(20.7)		40.4	58.8	(18.5)	2.2		40.5	59.6	(19.1)	1.6		41.3	58.8	(17.5)	3.2
IA	49.2	49.9	(0.7)		50.7	48.4	2.3	3.0	7	50.0	49.0	1.0	1.7	7	50.0	49.0	1.0	1.7	7
KS	36.6	62.0	(25.4)		37.2	61.5	(24.3)	1.1		36.6	62.8	(26.2)	(0.8)		34.4	64.6	(30.2)	(4.8)
KY	39.7	59.6	(19.9)		39.9	59.4	(19.5)	0.4		40.6	58.6	(18.0)	1.9		40.9	58.3	(17.4)	2.5
LA	42.2	56.7	(14.5)		43.5	55.4	(11.9)	2.6		43.2	56.3	(13.1)	1.4		44.3	54.8	(10.5)	4.0
ME	53.6	44.6	9.0	4	55.6	42.6	13.0	4.0	4	54.3	44.6	9.7	0.7	4	53.9	44.4	9.5	0.5	4
MD	55.9	42.9	13.0	10	59.6	39.3	20.3	7.3	10	59.4	39.7	19.7	6.7	10	56.6	42.5	14.1	1.1	10
MA	61.9	36.8	25.2	12	65.8	32.9	32.9	7.7	12	66.3	33.6	32.7	7.5	12	65.7	34.2	31.5	6.3	12
MI	51.2	47.8	3.4	17	54.4	44.6	9.8	6.4	17	51.8	47.3	4.5	1.1	17	51.9	47.1	4.8	1.4	17
MN	51.1	47.6	3.5	9	55.7	43.0	12.7	9.2	9	56.7	42.4	14.3	10.8	9	53.7	44.9	8.8	5.3	9
MS	40.2	59.0	(18.9)		49.4	49.8	(0.4)	18.5		46.2	53.2	(7.0)	11.9		43.4	56.0	(12.6)	6.3
MO	46.1	53.3	(7.2)		49.0	50.4	(1.4)	5.8		47.8	52.2	(4.4)	2.8		47.8	52.1	(4.3)	2.9
MT	38.6	59.1	(20.5)		37.3	60.4	(23.1)	(2.6)		37.8	59.9	(22.1)	(1.6)		37.2	60.0	(22.8)	(2.3)
NE	32.7	65.9	(33.2)		37.0	61.5	(24.5)	8.7		37.5	61.7	(24.2)	9.0		36.1	62.6	(26.5)	6.7
NV	47.9	50.5	(2.6)		52.8	45.5	7.3	9.9	5	49.3	47.9	1.4	4.0	5	48.9	48.3	0.6	3.2	5
NH	50.2	48.9	1.4	4	57.2	41.9	15.4	14.0	4	57.1	42.1	15.0	13.6	4	55.1	43.9	11.2	9.8	4
NJ	52.9	46.2	6.7	15	57.5	41.7	15.8	9.1	15	58.4	40.2	18.2	11.5	15	55.3	42.8	12.5	5.8	15
NM	49.0	49.8	(0.8)		53.0	45.8	7.2	8.0	5	51.7	47.5	4.2	5.0	5	50.8	48.0	2.8	3.6	5
NY	58.4	40.1	18.3	31	64.5	34.0	30.5	12.2	31	65.1	33.8	31.3	13.0	31	63.1	35.5	27.6	9.3	31
NC	43.6	56.0	(12.4)		49.5	50.1	(0.5)	11.9		48.2	51.8	(3.6)	8.8		48.1	51.9	(3.8)	8.6
ND	35.5	62.9	(27.4)		34.6	63.7	(29.1)	(1.7)		32.3	66.7	(34.4)	(7.0)		33.3	64.9	(31.6)	(4.2)
OH	48.7	50.8	(2.1)		54.0	45.5	8.5	10.6	20	53.2	46.7	6.5	8.6	20	51.7	48.3	3.4	5.5	20
OK	34.4	65.6	(31.1)		33.8	66.2	(32.3)	(1.2)		34.1	65.8	(31.7)	(0.6)		34.6	65.4	(30.8)	0.3
OR	51.3	47.2	4.2	7	52.2	46.3	6.0	1.8	7	53.0	47.0	6.0	1.8	7	50.3	47.9	2.4	(1.8)	7
PA	50.9	48.4	2.5	21	55.1	44.2	10.9	8.4	21	56.9	43.1	13.8	11.3	21	54.2	45.7	8.5	6.0	21
RI	59.4	38.7	20.8	4	62.1	36.0	26.1	5.3	4	62.4	36.3	26.1	5.3	4	63.2	34.9	28.3	7.5	4
SC	40.9	58.0	(17.1)		45.8	53.1	(7.4)	9.7		46.4	52.4	(6.0)	11.1		45.1	53.8	(8.7)	8.4
SD	38.4	59.9	(21.5)		35.9	62.5	(26.6)	(5.1)		34.9	63.2	(28.3)	(6.8)		36.8	61.5	(24.7)	(3.2)
TN	42.5	56.8	(14.3)		43.2	56.1	(13.0)	1.3		40.3	58.5	(18.2)	(3.9)		41.3	57.6	(16.3)	(2.0)
TX	38.2	61.1	(22.9)		42.0	57.3	(15.3)	7.6		36.5	63.5	(27.0)	(4.1)		37.1	62.9	(25.8)	(2.9)
UT	26.0	71.5	(45.5)		28.1	69.4	(41.2)	4.3		29.9	69.2	(39.3)	6.2		29.9	68.3	(38.4)	7.1
VT	58.9	38.8	20.1	3	66.5	31.2	35.3	15.2	3	67.0	30.4	36.6	16.5	3	64.5	32.8	31.7	11.6	3
VA	45.5	53.7	(8.2)		49.8	49.3	0.5	8.7	13	50.2	49.7	0.5	8.7	13	48.0	51.9	(3.9)	4.3
WA	52.8	45.6	7.2	11	56.8	41.6	15.2	8.0	11	54.9	44.2	10.7	3.5	11	54.1	44.6	9.5	2.3	11
WV	43.2	56.1	(12.9)		40.2	59.0	(18.8)	(5.9)		41.6	57.4	(15.8)	(2.9)		44.9	54.2	(9.3)	3.6
WI	49.7	49.3	0.4	10	52.1	46.9	5.2	4.8	10	52.5	46.8	5.7	5.3	10	49.6	49.2	0.4	0.0	10
WY	29.1	68.9	(39.8)		32.6	65.4	(32.8)	7.0		34.5	63.6	(29.1)	10.7		31.6	66.4	(34.8)	5.0

			Ohio
			2004 County True Vote Model
			Input Data and Summary Sheet
			2000 voters return in the same proportion as the
			2000 unadjusted exit poll shares
Voted 2000	Votes	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Margin
New	1,105	20.1%	60.5%	37.5%	2.0%	254
Gore	2,076	37.9%	92.7%	6.3%	1.0%	1,796
Bush	2,124	38.7%	11.7%	88.3%	0.0%	-1,625
Other	180	3.3%	65.7%	15.3%	19.0%	91
							Discrepancy
True Vote	5,485	100.0%	54.0%	44.6%	1.4%	9.40%	11.5%
	Total	5,485	2,962	2,446	77	515
	2000		2004
	Gore	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Other	Margin	Discrepancy
Exit Poll	47.4%	48.5%	54.1%	45.7%	0.2%	8.4%	10.5%
Recorded share	46.5%	50.0%	48.7%	50.8%	0.5%	-2.1%	11.5%
Recorded vote	2,188	2,353	2,671	2,786	27	-115	630
								Change in	Pct Change
								Recorded	In Recorded
	2004	Kerry	Kerry	Vote Margin	Share	Kerry True	Gore actual	Margin	Margin
	Votes	Recorded	True	Discrepancy	Discrepancy	LessRecorded	Recorded	from 2000	from 2000
Correlation to	0.47	1.00	0.99	0.22	-0.82	-0.83	0.97	0.55	0.57
Kerry recorded
Cuyahoga	648.9	67%	68%	16.4	3%	0.8%	63%	60.9	4.6%
Franklin	509.8	54%	56%	21.2	4%	1.7%	49%	38.3	7.3%
Hamilton	406.6	47%	49%	18.2	4%	1.9%	43%	19.5	6.2%
Montgomery	273.0	51%	55%	24.9	9%	4.2%	50%	-0.1	-0.3%
Summit	269.1	57%	59%	15.4	6%	2.5%	54%	14.5	3.4%
Lucas	214.3	60%	63%	12.0	6%	2.4%	58%	9.6	1.7%
Stark	182.2	51%	53%	11.4	6%	2.7%	48%	5.5	3.3%
Butler	160.9	34%	40%	21.8	14%	6.5%	34%	-13.5	-2.8%
Lorain	136.3	56%	59%	9.4	7%	3.1%	54%	5.6	2.0%
Mahoning	129.5	63%	65%	7.0	5%	2.2%	61%	5.1	0.4%
Lake	118.1	49%	52%	8.3	7%	3.1%	46%	2.0	2.5%
Trumbull	105.5	62%	64%	6.1	6%	2.4%	61%	2.7	-0.3%
Warren	91.9	28%	34%	12.6	14%	6.7%	28%	-12.6	-2.2%
Clermont	87.0	29%	36%	12.9	15%	7.1%	30%	-10.7	-3.9%
Medina	83.2	43%	47%	7.3	9%	4.1%	40%	-1.2	2.1%
Delaware	78.7	34%	39%	8.1	10%	4.9%	31%	-6.7	2.8%
Licking	77.4	38%	44%	9.3	12%	5.6%	38%	-5.0	-1.6%
Greene	76.2	38%	44%	9.3	12%	5.9%	38%	-4.7	-2.4%
Portage	75.0	53%	56%	5.3	7%	3.1%	51%	1.8	1.5%
Clark	67.3	49%	54%	7.2	11%	5.1%	49%	-1.8	-2.7%
Fairfield	66.4	37%	42%	7.4	11%	5.3%	35%	-3.6	0.1%
Wood	60.8	46%	50%	4.8	8%	3.5%	44%	0.3	2.1%
Richland	60.3	40%	45%	6.9	11%	5.3%	39%	-2.7	-1.6%
Wayne	50.9	38%	42%	4.4	9%	4.0%	35%	-1.0	3.1%
Miami	50.1	34%	42%	8.2	16%	8.0%	37%	-5.8	-7.4%
Geauga	49.5	40%	43%	4.2	8%	3.7%	36%	-0.5	2.8%
Columbiana	48.1	48%	52%	4.9	10%	4.7%	47%	-1.3	-2.4%
Allen	47.5	33%	39%	5.4	11%	5.5%	32%	-1.5	0.7%
Ashtabula	44.2	53%	56%	2.8	6%	2.8%	51%	1.1	1.8%
Tuscarawas	41.8	44%	49%	4.4	11%	4.8%	44%	-1.3	-1.7%
Erie	38.7	53%	56%	2.2	6%	2.4%	51%	1.2	2.6%
Muskingum	38.0	42%	47%	4.1	11%	5.0%	42%	-1.4	-1.3%
Jefferson	35.6	53%	56%	3.1	9%	3.9%	52%	-0.6	-2.2%
Scioto	34.4	48%	51%	2.5	7%	3.4%	46%	0.5	2.3%
Hancock	34.3	29%	36%	4.7	14%	6.8%	29%	-2.5	-1.9%
Belmont	32.5	53%	58%	3.7	11%	5.1%	55%	-1.4	-5.6%
Sandusky	31.7	44%	49%	3.6	11%	5.4%	44%	-1.4	-2.2%
Ross	30.6	45%	50%	3.6	12%	5.6%	45%	-1.3	-2.9%
Washington	29.2	41%	45%	2.4	8%	4.0%	40%	0.0	2.2%
Marion	28.2	41%	47%	3.8	14%	6.4%	42%	-2.0	-5.1%
Athens	27.3	64%	62%	-0.8	-3%	-2.2%	54%	4.5	13.8%
Lawrence	27.1	44%	51%	4.0	15%	7.0%	46%	-2.1	-7.2%
Seneca	26.4	41%	45%	2.6	10%	4.5%	40%	-0.5	0.0%
Knox	26.3	37%	41%	2.5	10%	4.5%	34%	-1.0	2.8%
Darke	25.5	30%	39%	4.8	19%	9.0%	34%	-3.3	-9.3%
Huron	24.9	42%	45%	2.1	8%	3.6%	39%	-0.1	3.0%
Ashland	24.2	34%	39%	2.4	10%	4.9%	32%	-0.9	1.8%
Ottawa	22.7	48%	53%	2.3	10%	4.8%	48%	-0.5	-1.9%
Pickaway	22.3	38%	44%	2.7	12%	5.8%	38%	-1.5	-1.5%
Shelby	22.2	28%	39%	4.7	21%	10.5%	34%	-3.8	-12.9%
Auglaize	22.2	26%	34%	3.8	17%	8.6%	28%	-2.8	-6.4%
Union	22.1	29%	36%	3.0	14%	6.6%	30%	-2.7	-2.4%
Fulton	21.5	38%	43%	2.2	10%	4.9%	36%	-0.6	0.9%
Crawford	21.3	36%	42%	2.7	13%	6.1%	36%	-1.3	-2.7%
Preble	20.7	35%	41%	2.9	14%	6.7%	36%	-1.6	-3.7%
Logan	20.7	32%	39%	3.0	14%	6.9%	32%	-1.7	-3.8%
Mercer	19.9	25%	35%	4.2	21%	10.2%	29%	-3.1	-11.0%
Brown	19.5	36%	43%	2.6	13%	6.1%	37%	-1.4	-2.7%
Putnam	18.5	23%	31%	2.9	16%	7.7%	24%	-1.2	-2.3%
Champaign	18.2	37%	44%	2.5	14%	6.6%	38%	-1.4	-4.1%
Clinton	17.9	29%	38%	3.1	17%	8.6%	32%	-2.5	-7.8%
Highland	17.9	34%	40%	2.6	14%	6.9%	35%	-1.5	-3.6%
Williams	17.9	35%	41%	2.3	13%	6.3%	35%	-1.1	-2.1%
Defiance	17.7	38%	44%	2.3	13%	6.1%	38%	-1.0	-3.3%
Madison	17.0	36%	42%	2.3	14%	6.5%	37%	-1.3	-3.6%
Guernsey	16.2	44%	49%	1.8	11%	5.2%	44%	-0.6	-2.8%
Morrow	16.0	36%	42%	2.1	13%	6.3%	36%	-1.4	-3.2%
Coshocton	15.9	43%	46%	1.1	7%	3.1%	40%	0.3	4.2%
Perry	15.0	48%	52%	1.3	9%	3.9%	46%	0.0	0.8%
Henry	14.8	34%	40%	1.8	12%	5.8%	33%	-0.7	-0.6%
Van Wert	14.5	28%	37%	2.9	20%	9.9%	32%	-2.1	-10.5%
Jackson	13.9	40%	47%	2.1	15%	7.3%	42%	-1.2	-6.8%
Carroll	13.7	45%	48%	0.8	6%	2.6%	42%	0.4	4.9%
Gallia	13.5	39%	44%	1.6	12%	5.8%	39%	-0.5	-1.8%
Hardin	12.9	36%	43%	1.9	14%	6.9%	38%	-1.1	-4.9%
Hocking	12.9	47%	50%	0.7	5%	2.4%	43%	0.5	6.3%
Pike	12.3	48%	52%	1.2	9%	4.4%	47%	-0.1	-0.1%
Adams	11.7	36%	41%	1.3	11%	5.4%	35%	-0.5	0.1%
Fayette	11.5	37%	42%	1.3	11%	5.8%	37%	-0.7	-0.5%
Holmes	10.9	24%	30%	1.4	13%	6.3%	23%	-1.1	0.0%
Wyandot	10.5	34%	41%	1.5	15%	6.5%	35%	-0.7	-4.0%
Meigs	10.5	41%	45%	0.8	8%	3.6%	38%	0.1	3.2%
Paulding	9.6	36%	44%	1.5	15%	7.3%	38%	-0.8	-6.4%
Harrison	8.1	47%	53%	1.0	12%	5.6%	48%	-0.4	-4.7%
Monroe	7.5	56%	57%	0.3	4%	0.9%	53%	0.3	3.3%
Morgan	6.5	43%	45%	0.3	4%	1.8%	38%	0.3	6.8%
Noble	6.4	41%	45%	0.6	10%	4.4%	40%	-0.1	0.2%
Vinton	5.8	45%	48%	0.4	7%	3.2%	42%	0.1	4.2%