Voter
Turnout Analysis Proves Beyond a Reasonable Doubt that the 2004 Election was
Stolen
Jan. 12, 2010
The impossible 2004 National Exit Poll returning Bush/Gore 43/37% split of the electorate has been discussed ad nauseam. It required at least 5 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were still alive in 2004. A feasible returning voter mix combined with National Exit Poll vote shares proves that Kerry won beyond a reasonable doubt. The mix was calculated over a wide range of estimated turnout of LIVING 2000 voters after applying a 5% mortality rate.
To handle uncertainty in LIVING Gore and Bush 2000 voter turnout in 2004, a 92-98% range of turnout assumptions was applied to calculate the True Vote. But since the 98% turnout estimate is solid, the range should be reduced to 97-99%. This would also increase confidence in the resulting True Vote calculation.
Given that LIVING voter turnout had to be less than 100%, we can set an upper limit of 99% turnout. But to maintain an overall 98% AVERAGE turnout, the lower limit must be 97%. Because of this constraint, there are just three plausible Gore/Bush turnout scenarios: 98/98, 99/97 and 97/99. Again, this assumes that 98% is an accurate estimate. Let’s look at confirming evidence that it is.
We need to consider two cases. The first case assumes that all votes cast in 2004 were counted. This is obviously not true. But the National Exit Poll does not consider uncounted votes; it is always forced to match the RECORDED vote. According to the NEP, 20.8m (17%) of 122.3 m voters were new or did not vote in 2000.
The second case assumes Census total votes cast in which uncounted votes are included. We determine that nearly 22.6m (18%) of 125.7m total votes cast in 2004 were first-time, newly registered voters and others that did not vote in 2000 (DNV).
Given the number of new voters, we can calculate returning voters from 2000. It is simply the difference between total votes recorded and new voters (Case 1). In Case 2, it is votes cast less new voters. In both cases, we use a 5% voter mortality rate based on published statistical tables.
Recorded 2000 vote: 105.4m
Recorded 2004 vote: 122.3m
2004 New voters (NEP): 20.8m (17% of 122.3m recorded in 2004)
Returning 2000 voters: 101.5 = 122.3-20.8 (recorded – new)
2000 voter mortality: 5.3m (5% of 105.4 recorded in 2000)
2000 voters living in 2004: 100.1m
But how could there be 101.5m returning 2000 voters when only 100.1m were living in 2004? Of those living approximately 2 million did not return to vote in 2004. So there is a 3.5 million discrepancy (101.5-98). Those damn phantoms!
Since the NEP 17% new voter share is a rounded figure, it lies somewhere between 16.5% and 17.5%.
If it is 16.5%, there were 20.2m new voters (102.1m returning).
If it is 17.5%, there were 21.4m new voters (100.9m returning).
The number of returning voters exceeds those still living
by 0.8 million (100.9-100.1).
Therefore the number of new voters must have exceeded 17%
of the 2004 electorate.
Case 2: Votes cast (Census)
2000 votes cast: 110.8m
There were 5.4 million net uncounted votes (110.8m cast -105.4 recorded)
2004 votes cast: 125.7m
2000 voter mortality: 5.5m (5% of 110.8m)).
2000 voters alive in 2004: 105.3 million
Obviously, this is the maximum possible number of returning voters.
Therefore, the minimum number new voters: 20.4m =
125.7 – 105.3 (close to the NEP recorded 20.8m)
Calculate returning 2000 voter turnout and new voters:
Best estimate: 98% turnout of living 2000 voters
New voters: 22.5 = 125.7 – 103.2
New voter share of 2004 electorate: 17.9% = 22.5/125.7
In Case 1, we determined that the new voters exceeded the NEP 17% figure.
In Case 2, assuming 98% turnout the percentage of new voters is 17.9%.
The following analysis uses a feasible returning voter mix based on 2000 votes cast, 5% mortality and 98% average turnout.
A 70% majority of uncounted votes were assumed for Gore (over 50% of uncounted votes are in heavily Democratic minority districts).
The following tables show the number of new voters over a range of returning 2000 voter turnout and uncounted vote assumptions.
Living voter turnout ranges from 97% to 99% of 105.3 million living voters.
Net uncounted votes range from 5.2 to 5.6 million.
Limiting the 2000 returning voter turnout range to 97-99% for both Gore and Bush constrains the number of new voters. Based on these constraints, the number of new voters must be in the interval from 21.3m to 23.8m (17.0%-18.9% of the 2004 electorate).
Compare the impossible
37/43% Gore/ Bush Final NEP returning voter share of the 2004 electorate to the
feasible voter scenarios:
Assuming equal 5% voter mortality, the Final NEP mix is again proven impossible, this time by the 97-99% turnout interval constraint.
Let's calculate the Kerry vote margin for the three returning voter scenarios, assuming a) Kerry has 59% of new voters (as per the NEP). According to the NEP, Kerry had a 64-17% margin (1.7m) of 3.6 million returning 3rd party voters. He had 10% of returning Bush voters and Bush had 8% of returning Gore voters. The net 2% defection to Kerry increased his margin by 0.7 million. Gore voters were highly motivated due to the 2000 stolen election. Democratic registration of new voters far outnumbered the GOP. Bush had a 48% approval rating.
The most likely base case scenario indicates that Kerry won by 10 million votes.
Gore/Bush 2000 NEP
Voter Voter Diff
Turnout Mix Margin
97/99% 40.1
/ 38.8% 7.7%
98/98 40.6
/ 38.4 8.2
99/97 41.0 / 38.0 9.0
Table 1
Final National Exit Poll Shares
Kerry low-end share is in
the range 51.3-52.0%.
His winning margin is in
the range 4.3-6.0 million.
Worst-case scenario
2000 Voter turnout in
2004: Gore 97%, Bush 99%
Kerry wins by 4.3 million
with a 51.3% share
Best-case scenario
2000 Voter turnout in
2004: Gore 99%, Bush 97%
Kerry wins by 6.0 million
with a 52.0% share
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Method: Previous Cast |
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95% |
98% |
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Cast |
Cast |
Recorded |
Alive |
Cast |
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Cast |
Cast |
Final National Exit Poll |
Turnout% |
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2000 |
2000 |
2000 |
2004 |
Turnout |
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Turnout |
Mix |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Alive |
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DNV |
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- |
- |
- |
- |
DNV |
22.6 |
18.0% |
54% |
45% |
1% |
- |
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Gore |
49.5% |
54.8 |
51.0 |
52.1 |
50.5 |
Gore |
50.5 |
40.2 |
90 |
10 |
0 |
97 |
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Bush |
46.7% |
51.8 |
50.5 |
49.2 |
48.7 |
Bush |
48.7 |
38.7 |
9 |
91 |
0 |
99 |
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Other |
3.8% |
4.2 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
3.9 |
Other |
3.9 |
3.1 |
64 |
17 |
19 |
98 |
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Margin |
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Total |
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110.8 |
105.4 |
105.3 |
103.2 |
Total |
125.74 |
Share |
51.3% |
47.9% |
0.8% |
3.4% |
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Vote |
64.6 |
60.2 |
1.0 |
4.3 |
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Recorded |
Share |
48.3% |
50.7% |
1.0% |
-2.5% |
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Vote |
122.3 |
59.0 |
62.0 |
1.2 |
-3.0 |
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Error |
-5.9% |
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Gore Turnout |
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Kerry Share of DNV |
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Bush |
91% |
93% |
95% |
97% |
99% |
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Share of |
54% |
57% |
59% |
60% |
62% |
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Turnout |
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Kerry Share |
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Bush |
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Kerry Share |
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91% |
51.9% |
52.2% |
52.4% |
52.7% |
53.0% |
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12% |
52.5% |
53.0% |
53.4% |
53.6% |
53.9% |
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93% |
51.5% |
51.8% |
52.1% |
52.4% |
52.7% |
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11% |
52.1% |
52.7% |
53.0% |
53.2% |
53.6% |
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95% |
51.1% |
51.4% |
51.7% |
52.0% |
52.3% |
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10% |
51.7% |
52.3% |
52.6% |
52.8% |
53.2% |
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97% |
50.8% |
51.1% |
51.4% |
51.7% |
52.0% |
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9% |
51.3% |
51.9% |
52.2% |
52.4% |
52.8% |
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99% |
50.4% |
50.7% |
51.0% |
51.3% |
51.6% |
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8% |
51.0% |
51.5% |
51.8% |
52.0% |
52.4% |
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Kerry Margin |
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Kerry Margin |
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91% |
5.7 |
6.4 |
7.2 |
7.9 |
8.7 |
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12% |
5.8 |
6.5 |
6.9 |
7.1 |
7.6 |
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93% |
4.8 |
5.5 |
6.3 |
7.0 |
7.8 |
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11% |
5.3 |
6.0 |
6.4 |
6.7 |
7.1 |
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95% |
3.9 |
4.6 |
5.4 |
6.1 |
6.9 |
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10% |
4.8 |
5.5 |
5.9 |
6.2 |
6.6 |
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97% |
3.0 |
3.7 |
4.5 |
5.2 |
6.0 |
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9% |
4.3 |
5.0 |
5.5 |
5.7 |
6.1 |
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99% |
2.1 |
2.9 |
3.6 |
4.3 |
5.1 |
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8% |
3.8 |
4.5 |
5.0 |
5.2 |
5.7 |
The True Kerry vote share
is in the range 53.0-53.7%.
His winning margin is in
the range 9.3-10.9 million.
Worst-case scenario
2000 Voter turnout in
2004: Gore 97%, Bush 99%
Kerry wins by 9.3 million
with a 53.0% share
Best-case scenario
Turnout: Gore 99%, Bush
97%
Kerry wins by 10.9
million with a 53.7% share
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Cast |
Cast |
Recorded |
Alive |
98% |
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Cast |
Cast |
National Exit Poll |
Turnout% |
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2000 |
2000 |
2000 |
2004 |
Turnout |
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Turnout |
Mix |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Alive |
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DNV |
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- |
- |
- |
- |
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22.59 |
18.0% |
59 |
39 |
2 |
- |
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Gore |
49.5% |
54.84 |
51.00 |
52.09 |
50.53 |
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50.53 |
40.2% |
91 |
8 |
1 |
97 |
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Bush |
46.7% |
51.81 |
50.46 |
49.22 |
48.73 |
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48.73 |
38.8% |
10 |
90 |
0 |
99 |
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Other |
3.8% |
4.18 |
3.96 |
3.97 |
3.89 |
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3.89 |
3.1% |
64 |
17 |
19 |
98 |
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Margin |
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Total |
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110.83 |
105.42 |
105.28 |
103.15 |
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125.7 |
Share |
53.0% |
45.6% |
1.3% |
7.4% |
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Vote |
66.67 |
57.37 |
1.70 |
9.31 |
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Recorded |
Share |
48.3% |
50.7% |
1.0% |
-2.5% |
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Vote |
122.3 |
59.0 |
62.0 |
1.2 |
-3.0 |
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Diff |
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4.8% |
-5.1% |
0.3% |
9.9% |
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Gore Turnout |
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Kerry Share of DNV |
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Bush |
91% |
93% |
95% |
97% |
99% |
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Share of |
54% |
57% |
59% |
60% |
62% |
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Turnout |
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Kerry Share |
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Bush |
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Kerry Share |
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91% |
53.8% |
54.0% |
54.3% |
54.6% |
54.8% |
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12% |
52.9% |
53.4% |
53.8% |
54.0% |
54.3% |
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93% |
53.4% |
53.6% |
53.9% |
54.2% |
54.4% |
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11% |
52.5% |
53.1% |
53.4% |
53.6% |
54.0% |
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95% |
53.0% |
53.3% |
53.5% |
53.8% |
54.1% |
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10% |
52.1% |
52.7% |
53.0% |
53.2% |
53.6% |
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97% |
52.6% |
52.9% |
53.1% |
53.4% |
53.7% |
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9% |
51.7% |
52.3% |
52.6% |
52.8% |
53.2% |
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99% |
52.2% |
52.5% |
52.8% |
53.0% |
53.3% |
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8% |
51.4% |
51.9% |
52.3% |
52.4% |
52.8% |
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Kerry Margin |
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Kerry Margin |
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91% |
11.3 |
11.9 |
12.6 |
13.2 |
13.9 |
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12% |
9.2 |
9.8 |
10.3 |
10.5 |
11.0 |
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93% |
10.3 |
10.9 |
11.6 |
12.3 |
12.9 |
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11% |
8.7 |
9.3 |
9.8 |
10.0 |
10.5 |
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95% |
9.3 |
10.0 |
10.6 |
11.3 |
11.9 |
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10% |
8.2 |
8.9 |
9.3 |
9.5 |
10.0 |
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97% |
8.3 |
9.0 |
9.6 |
10.3 |
10.9 |
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9% |
7.7 |
8.4 |
8.8 |
9.0 |
9.5 |
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99% |
7.3 |
8.0 |
8.7 |
9.3 |
10.0 |
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8% |
7.2 |
7.9 |
8.3 |
8.6 |
9.0 |
Kerry 59% share of DNV
Worst Case Scenario:
Gore 97/ Bush 99% turnout; Gore 50% Uncounted
Kerry wins by 7.6 million with 52.3%
Base Case Scenario:
Gore 98/ Bush 98% turnout; Gore 70% Uncounted
Kerry wins by 10.1 million with 53.3%
Best Case Scenario:
Gore 99/ Bush 97% turnout; Gore 75% Uncounted
Kerry wins by 11.3 million with 53.8%
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Worst Case Scenario: Final NEP
Kerry 54% of DNV, Gore 97/Bush 99% turnout
Kerry wins by 8.2 million with 52.1%
Base Case Scenario: 7:30pm NEP
Kerry 59% of DNV, Gore 98/Bush 98% turnout
Kerry wins by 10.1 million with 53.3%
Best Case Scenario: 4pm NEP
Kerry 62% of DNV, Gore 99/Bush 97% turnout
Kerry wins by 11.6 million with 54.2%
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Voter Turnout
Gore 97.0% 97.5% 98.0% 98.5% 99.0%
Bush 99.0% 98.5% 98.0% 97.5% 97.0%
Gore%
Unctd
Kerry Share
75% 53.2% 53.3% 53.5% 53.7% 53.8%
70% 53.0% 53.2% 53.3% 53.5% 53.7%
65% 52.9% 53.0% 53.2% 53.3% 53.5%
55% 52.5% 52.7% 52.9% 53.0% 53.2%
50% 52.4% 52.5% 52.7% 52.9% 53.0%
Kerry Margin
75% 9.7 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.3
70% 9.3 9.7 10.1 10.5 10.9
65% 8.9 9.3 9.7 10.1 10.5
55% 8.1 8.5 8.9 9.3 9.7
50% 7.6 8.1 8.5 8.9 9.3
Voter Turnout
Gore 97.0% 97.5% 98.0% 98.5% 99.0%
Bush 99.0% 98.5% 98.0% 97.5% 97.0%
Kerry%
DNV Kerry Share NEP
62% 53.6% 53.7% 53.9% 54.0% 54.2%
4pm
59% 53.0% 53.2% 53.3% 53.5% 53.7% 730pm
57% 52.7% 52.8% 53.0% 53.1% 53.3%
1222am
54% 52.1% 52.3% 52.4% 52.6% 52.8%
Final
Kerry Margin
62% 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.6 NEP
59% 9.3 9.7 10.1 10.5 10.9 730pm
57% 8.8 9.3 9.7 10.1 10.5 1222am
54% 8.2 8.6 9.0 9.4 9.8 Final
2000 Gore Bush Other
Uncounted 70% 25% 5%
5% Mortality 5% 5% 5%
98% Turnout
98% 98% 98%
105.42 Recorded 51.00 50.46 3.96
5.41 Uncounted 3.79 1.35 0.27
110.83 Cast 54.79 51.81 4.23
5.54 Died
2.74 2.59 0.21
105.28 Alive 52.05 49.22 4.02
2004
103.18 Return 51.01 48.23 3.94
Voter Mix 40.57% 38.36% 3.13%
Returning Gore/ Bush Voter Scenarios:
98% Gore/ 98% Bush: Gore
by 2.78 million (base case)
99% Gore/ 97% Bush: Gore by 3.79 million
97% Gore/ 99% Bush: Gore by 1.76 million
Votes
Cast 125.74 Share Min Max
New
Voters 22.57 17.9% 17.0% 18.9%
Kerry
13.31 59% - -
Bush 8.80 39% - -
Margin
4.51 4.51 4.27 4.76
Turnout
105.1 98% 97% 99%
Turnout Gore 97% 98% 99%
Turnout Bush 99% 98% 97%
Return
Gore 50.49 51.01 51.53
2004 Mix 40.15% 40.57% 40.98%
Return
Bush 48.73 48.23 47.74
2004 Mix 38.8% 38.4% 38.0%
Gore
Margin 1.76 2.78 3.79
Returning
2000 Voter Turnout in 2004
96% 97% 98% 99% 100%
Unctd
2000
New voters
(millions)
5.8 24.31 23.25 22.19 21.14 20.08
5.6 24.49 23.43 22.38 21.33 20.27
5.4 24.67 23.62 22.57 21.51 20.46
5.2 24.85 23.80 22.75 21.70 20.65
5.0 25.04 23.99 22.94 21.89 20.84
New
voters % of Total Cast
5.8 19.3% 18.5% 17.7% 16.8% 16.0%
5.6 19.5% 18.6% 17.8% 17.0% 16.1%
5.4 19.6% 18.8% 17.9% 17.1% 16.3%
5.2 19.8% 18.9% 18.1% 17.3% 16.4%
5.0 19.9% 19.1% 18.2% 17.4% 16.6%
Kerry New Voter
Share
Unctd 52% 54% 57% 59% 62%
2000 Kerry New Voter Margin
5.8 1.46 2.33 3.55 4.23 5.22
5.6 1.47 2.34 3.58 4.27 5.27
5.4 1.48 2.36 3.61 4.30 5.32
5.2 1.49 2.38 3.64 4.34 5.37
5.0 1.50 2.40 3.67 4.38 5.42
RETURNING
GORE / BUSH VOTER MARGIN
Returning 2000
Voter Turnout in 2004
Gore 96% 97% 98% 99% 100%
Bush 100% 99% 98% 97%
96%
Gore%
Unctd
Returning Share Margin
75% 1.77% 2.19% 2.61% 3.02% 3.44%
70% 1.38% 1.79% 2.21% 2.62% 3.03%
65% 0.98% 1.39% 1.80% 2.22% 2.63%
60% 0.58% 0.99% 1.40% 1.81% 2.22%
55% 0.19% 0.60% 1.00% 1.41% 1.82%
Return Voter Margin
75% 2.23 2.75 3.28 3.80 4.32
70% 1.73 2.25 2.77 3.29 3.81
65% 1.23 1.75 2.27 2.79 3.31
60% 0.73 1.25 1.77 2.28 2.80
55% 0.24 0.75 1.26 1.77 2.29
KERRY NEW VOTER
MARGIN
Returning
2000 Voter Turnout in 2004
Gore 96% 97% 98% 99% 100%
Bush
100% 99% 98% 97% 96%
Kerry%
New
61% 5.66 5.54 5.41 5.29 5.16
59% 4.72 4.62 4.51 4.41 4.30
57% 3.78 3.69 3.61 3.53 3.44
54% 2.36 2.31 2.26 2.20 2.15
53% 1.89 1.85 1.80 1.76 1.72
61% 7.40 7.79 8.19 8.58 8.98
59% 6.45 6.87 7.28 7.70 8.12
57% 5.51 5.94 6.38 6.82 7.26
54% 4.09 4.56 5.03 5.50 5.97
53% 3.62 4.10 4.58 5.06 5.54
According to the 12:22am National Exit Poll:
Kerry had a 64-17% margin (1.7m) of 3.6 million returning 3rd party voters.
Kerry had 10% (4.8m) of returning Bush voters.
Bush had 8% (4.1m) of returning Gore voters.
The 2% net defection to Kerry increased his margin by 0.7 million.
Add the 2.4 million to the Kerry margin.
The Turnout Analysis Confirms the True Vote Model: Kerry wins by 10 million votes.