Opponents of Amendment One, a proposed change to North Carolina’s state constitution that would only ensure legal recognition for marriage between a man and a woman, have long contended that as voters learn more about the measure support for it will drop. There is now mounting evidence to corroborate that claim, so much so that the amendment may be facing an improbable defeat.

Voters under the age of 30 comprised 18 percent of Colorado’s turnout in 2008, outnumbering voters over the age of 65, and that injection of youth helped hand President Barack Obama a comfortable nine-point victory there. The big question going into 2012: Can Obama replicate those turnout numbers among younger voters?

President Barack Obama’s 2008 triumph in Virginia was widely attributed to a well-orchestrated campaign that mobilized large swaths of voters, even in reliably conservative areas. Four years later, it’s growing support among women that’s giving the president momentum in the Commonwealth — and according to some observers, he can thank the Republican party’s revival of the culture wars for powering his re-election bid there.

If this election year represents a potential crossroads for Democrats — wherein the party must choose to either embrace progressive principles or espouse moderation in the name of electability — Tuesday’s U.S. House primary contest in Illinois’s 10th Congressional District might well be instructive.