By
Stuart Rothenberg
| June 28, 2012, Midnight
As Democrats struggle to net 25 seats and win back the House majority in November, no single state reflects the party’s challenges more than Pennsylvania.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| June 26, 2012, Midnight
While I interview more than a hundred candidates each election cycle, I don’t evaluate them the way the average politically interested observer does. I don’t care about their ideology or their views on issues — except to the extent that their views make it easier or harder for them to get elected.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| June 21, 2012, Midnight
A slew of retirements and a changing presidential election landscape have made for some ups and downs for the two parties in this year’s fight for the Senate. But the basic contours of the cycle remain the same: The Senate is up for grabs in November.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| June 19, 2012, Midnight
Back in October, President Barack Obama’s job approval rating stood at 44 percent in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey and only 17 percent of voters said that things in the country were “generally headed in the right direction.” Those numbers suggested that the president would lose re-election unless he was able to change the direction of public opinion.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| June 14, 2012, Midnight
Everyone has an opinion about swing states. I figured it was time to explain how I see the presidential map.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| June 12, 2012, Midnight
Twenty years ago this week, my first column appeared in the pages of Roll Call. I had no intention of becoming a columnist or working for a newspaper, and I certainly had no expectation that two decades after my first column appeared in print I’d still be writing for Roll Call.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| June 7, 2012, Midnight
If any of these five House incumbents survive, it will surprise most dispassionate observers (including some in their own parties). But upsets happen, and each of these candidates has a scenario for victory.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| June 5, 2012, Midnight
Thirty-five years ago, just before I came to the nation’s capital, a political force emerged nationally and in Washington, D.C.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| May 31, 2012, Midnight
The 2012 presidential election looks like it could well be another squeaker, and if it is, a number of possible outcomes could produce national hand-wringing, finger-pointing, complaints of unfairness and anger, further dividing Americans and undermining confidence in our political system.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| May 24, 2012, Midnight
Some races are easy to handicap. Two essentially evenly matched candidates in a competitive state normally produces a tossup rating, while a popular entrenched incumbent against an under-funded, unknown challenger almost always produces something close to a safe contest for the incumbent.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| May 22, 2012, Midnight
“It’s a major victory for big oil, Wall Street banks, health insurance companies and the other powerful interests that marshal their power every day in Washington to drown out the voices of everyday Americans,” President Barack Obama said in a statement after the Supreme Court’s January 2010 Citizens United decision, which held that corporations have a constitutional right to free speech.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| May 17, 2012, Midnight
The discussion on Monday morning’s “Daily Rundown” on MSNBC has already occurred hundreds of times this cycle and will occur again and again between now and November. Who is Mitt Romney?
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| May 15, 2012, Midnight
I never include the Keystone State in my list of presidential swing states for November. Am I making a mistake? Possibly.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| May 10, 2012, Midnight
Little did I know that what I figured was a relatively innocuous column about the Democrats’ problems in North Carolina, where the party will hold its national convention in early September, would generate such a flood of angry attacks.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| May 8, 2012, Midnight
It looks as if there will be no rest for the weary, at least for Democratic House candidates in the South. Heading into November’s elections, except for a handful of races, Democratic opportunities in the region continue to be limited to districts that are heavily populated by minorities.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| April 30, 2012, Midnight
If national Democratic strategists chose Charlotte, N.C., for the party’s national convention because they liked the facilities, the hotel accommodations or the weather in early September, then I guess I can’t yet quibble with the choice.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| April 26, 2012, Midnight
I’ve written a couple of columns about presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney’s potential running mates. Start with some biography, add a dash of analysis and you’ve got an entertaining piece. But I’m not merely a columnist, I’m a political analyst. And the political analyst in me tells me that all of the chatter about Romney’s running mate is a lot of hot air.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| April 24, 2012, Midnight
It’s really amazing how some people with years of political experience change their opinions about the political landscape to match the latest poll. It’s not that poll results shouldn’t affect our understanding of politics. It’s that too often people behave as if the most recent poll they encounter has enormous predictive value.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| April 19, 2012, Midnight
The “anti-incumbent election” narrative will grow loud during the next few weeks, as a handful of Members find themselves in tough races. It won’t matter whether they are defeated in primaries or just squeeze through in tight, nasty contests. And it won’t matter that the narrative is wrong. Be prepared.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| April 17, 2012, Midnight
Three months ago, Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney had a very clear message: President Barack Obama had failed to turn the economy around or create jobs. More recently, the Romney message morphed into one much more about competing visions for the future, about what kind of country this is and will be.
