More on Obama's possible NH surge from the Wash Post

From Chris Cillizza:

It's important, however, to caution that an abrupt surge in the polls should be taken with a grain of salt. Voters could well have been energized and enthused by Obama's win in Iowa last Thursday night and got swept up in the excitement of the past couple of days of campaigning here, but they may reconsider that support before Tuesday's primary. Unlike in years past, however, there is so little time between the votes in Iowa and New Hampshire that even a temporary bounce could be enough to carry Obama to victory in the primary, a win that would be another major step forward in his quest for the nomination.

Joe and I are thinking of doing a podcast tomorrow about NH and what it means for the future of the various campaigns. We'll obviously be writing about it too tomorrow, but we can fit a lot more into a podcast, and I think do it in a way that's also more interesting. Read the rest of this post...

Galette des Rois

In France, it is customary for many to celebrate the Epiphany (Jan. 6) with the galette des rois, or king cake. I once met someone from Louisiana who celebrated the day with a special cake flown in from New Orleans which was different from what we eat in Paris/northern France though similar to what is eaten in the South. The southern version is more like brioche or fluffy cake. (France is a country that is divided between butter in the north and olive oil in the south.) This galette is made with plenty of butter and filled with frangipane, which is one of my favorites.

The person who receives the slice of galette which includes the "feve" or bean, is pronounced king or queen for the day. Typically friends will gather and share a glass of (hard) cider or Champagne together with the cake. Below are a few more photos including the king and the honor guard for the king... Sushi.



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Clinton campaign fears loss in NH and evidence grows of Obama's bounce from Iowa

Yesterday, Hillary Clinton's pollster/strategist Mark Penn told the world that Obama did not get a bounce in NH polls from Iowa. Given the polls that came out today, Penn is apparently the only person in politics who doesn't see major movement towards Obama in New Hampshire, which was supposed to be the firewall state for the Clinton campaign. In fact, today, The Politico is reporting that anonymous Clinton staffers now believe they could lose in New Hampshire -- and South Carolina on January 26th:

In Iowa, Clinton aides have said she drew levels of support that might have been enough to win in an ordinary year, but she was swamped in the stunning turnout produced by Obama’s popularity among young voters. While taking pains to insist in public that New Hampshire’s turnout model is very different from Iowa’s, Clinton’s aides say privately that they still fear a similar wave on Tuesday.

“It’s still possible to win or take a close second in New Hampshire, but if the turnout even begins to mirror what happened in Iowa, all bets are off,” said a Clinton adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

The adviser added that the campaign has come to accept another reality of the early process, which is that African-American voters are convinced that Obama is viable and shifting rapidly in his direction.

“We’re going to lose South Carolina,” he said.

A slew of polls came out today which illustrate why the Clinton campaign is so concerned. Five that I could find. And, we are seeing serious movement for Obama. The latest numbers from New Hampshire after the jump.

The fall out from Obama's victory in Iowa is becoming clear in the polls. New Hampshire voters are responding to him. And, as much as New Hampshire voters claim they aren't influenced by Iowa, NH voters clearly are influenced by Iowa.

The CNN/WMUR poll out tonight shows Obama with a 10 point lead:

In the survey, conducted by the University of New Hampshire on Saturday and early Sunday, 39 percent of likely Granite State Democratic primary voters back Obama as the party’s nominee — that’s ten points ahead of Clinton’s 29 percent. Obama is up six points and Clinton down four points from our survey conducted on Friday and early Saturday.

Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina is at 16 percent in the new survey, down four points from Saturday. Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico is in fourth place, with the support of 7 percent of likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters, with Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio at 2 percent.

Rasmussen Reports has Obama leading by twelve points:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Hampshire shows Barack Obama earning 39% of the vote while Hillary Clinton attracts 27%. The survey was conducted on Friday night and Saturday afternoon. All interviews were conducted after the Iowa caucuses and before last night’s debate.

Boston's 7News/Suffolk University found Clinton in the lead, but with Obama moving fast:

In the Democratic Primary, Clinton (35 percent) leads Obama (33 percent), John Edwards (14 percent), Bill Richardson (5 percent), Dennis Kucinich (1 percent) and Mike Gravel (1 percent). Eleven percent were undecided.

Steady gain for Obama

“Barack Obama has cut a seventeen-point deficit to just two points today,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “He’s done this in four days with no sign of a slowing trend.”

The McClatchy/MSNBC poll has Obama leading:

Obama now leads Clinton by a margin of 33-31 percent, thanks to an apparent surge of support the night after he won the Iowa caucuses. Given the poll's margin of error, the numbers amount to a statistical tie. But that still marks a gain for Obama, who has trailed Clinton in New Hampshire for months.

The Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll also found the race is almost dead even -- and, again showing serious movement for Obama:

Obama, an Illinois senator vying to be the first black president in U.S. history, pulled within one point of Clinton in the state's Democratic race -- a statistically insignificant lead. The poll in both races had a 3.4 percentage point margin of error.

Clinton, a New York senator and former first lady, led Obama 31 percent to 30 percent, with former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards at 20 percent. Before Iowa's caucuses, Clinton led Obama by six points.

We'll be seeing daily tracking polls til Tuesday. Primaries are much easier to poll then caucuses. The question in New Hampshire is where independents end up voting. As of now, NH is starting to look good for Obama. Very good.

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Huckabee tax plan a step back in time

Here we go again. Another Republican who wants to turn back the clock to before the Industrial Revolution. Haven't we seen enough lunacy from the loony party? I have to laugh with the VAT tax Huckabee (oh sorry, he's calls it a "FairTax") that will somehow scrap the current tax system and replace it with a highly unfair tax on the middle class. Haven't we already debated this issue decades (centuries?) ago and concluded that this will be a big hit to those in the middle? And taxing everything that moves, including little Billy and Susie who are doing jobs for the neighborhood such as mowing lawns, shoveling snow and babysitting? How fair is that?

Even Adam Smith concluded that a progressive tax (what we have today) was a better option that would be fair to all economic groups. Haven't we already seen enough giveaways to the richest Americans in the last few years? Just how well has that worked for the rest of us? More on the Huckabee unFairTax plan after the jump...

Like any tax on consumption, the biggest burden, comparatively, would fall on the poor. To help compensate for this, the plan would provide a monthly check from the government to every American household, rich and poor alike.

The rebate amount would be set to equal what a household living at the poverty level would pay in taxes, leaving some of the poor better off and cushioning the proposal’s impact on the middle class.

But, apart from the administrative nightmares associated with giving every household a rebate, it would still not prevent transferring a substantial part of the current tax burden from those with annual incomes above $200,000, who tend to save a large part of their income rather than spending it, to those earning less.

“Even with the rebate counted the way FairTax supporters want it calculated,” said Bruce Bartlett, a conservative tax analyst and policy maker in the Reagan administration who has emerged as one of the proposal’s most powerful critics, “there would be an enormous shift in the tax burden from the wealthy to those with lower and middle incomes.”

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Bush adviser says housing crisis to be over in six months

Well, they have been so accurate about this and everything else, why not believe them this time?

Better still, the Bush adviser Edward Lazear added this little gem. If 18,000 jobs and an increase in unemployment is "mixed" I would hate to see what he thinks is bad.

"The numbers are low, but they're mixed," he said.

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Huckabee getting reputation for flip-flopping, insincerity

AP did an entire story on Huckabee's increasing tendency to flip-flop. I was watching Stephanopoulos this morning, and he got Huckabee to flip flop on the surge (Huckabee wasn't for it, now says he was) and Terry Schiavo (Huckabee said the feds shouldn't have gotten involved, now he says they should have) as well. Here's what AP had to say:

Huckabee himself has struggled to keep up. Last month, he was unaware of a report the White House had released saying Iran had halted its nuclear weapons program, and he flubbed his response to the assassination of Pakistan's former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto, expressing apologies when he meant to say sympathies. He also warned that Pakistan is second only to Latin America in the number of immigrants in the U.S. illegally, which is not true.

More after the jump...

_He decided not to air a commercial attacking Romney but played it for journalists, anyway.

_He said he supports the Hollywood writers' strike but crossed the picket line to appear on the Jay Leno's "Tonight" show.

_He campaigned at a casino in Burlington, Iowa, despite his opposition to gambling.

Even more interesting, Huckabee continues to stand by his previous statements, all the while iterating the new positions that totally contradict what he said previously. Stephanopoulos nailed him, bad - which was kind of a first for the Sunday shows. Actual reporting, actual news. I generally fast forward through the interviews with politicians because the hosts generally don't press their guests more than once when they lie, change their stories, etc. Today, Stephanopoulos just continued to nail these guys. It was good.

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OPEC President on $100 oil: "not necessarily very high"

One of these days we just may have a government that wants to take action on break our national addiction to oil. All we ever hear is talk without serious action. Even for 2008, it's not as though we are hearing about any daring new action. Mild change, perhaps, but that's where it ends.

If we ever do move beyond oil, it's going to be interesting to see how the OPEC countries replace that revenue stream in their economies. In the mean time, life is good for them. Halliburton and Big Oil are feeling pretty good about life these days as well. Read the rest of this post...

Sunday Talk Shows Open Thread

As you can imagine, it's almost all presidential candidates this weekend -- and it's almost exclusively GOPers. We get Huckabee three times, McCain twice, Romney twice, Ron Paul once and even Fred Thompson makes an appearance. No Rudy anywhere. Edwards and Richardson each get one show.

After the debates last night, we've seen enough of the Republicans. Seriously. And, from that debate last night, it's pretty clear that the other Republican candidates have had enough of Mitt Romney. Their disdain for him was blatantly obvious.

The full lineup is after the break.

It's chock full of Republicans:

ABC's "This Week" — Former Gov. Mike Huckabee, R-Ark.; former Gov. Mitt Romney, R-Mass.; former Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C.

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CBS' "Face the Nation" — Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.

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NBC's "Meet the Press" — McCain.

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CNN's "Late Edition" — Huckabee; Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas; Gov. Bill Richardson, D-N.M.; former Sen. Fred Thompson, R-Tenn.; Mahmud Ali Durrani, Pakistan's Ambassador to the U.S.

"Fox News Sunday" _ Romney, Huckabee.

If you can bear to watch, provide the commentary.
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Is it a Fox News political debate?

It's not that far off. Read the rest of this post...

GOP Congressman not sure if he will accept hedge fund lobby job

Right. I'm sure he is struggling with whether or not to stick around for another term in the minority or accept the $1,000,000 per year position. Congressman Baker (R-LA) has followed the new procedures and filed paperwork with the House ethics committee as he talks to the increasingly power hedge fund lobby. The revolving door between Congress and wealthy lobbyists continues. Tell me again what the ethics and lobbying reform bill was supposed to do last year? The best democracy that money can buy. Read the rest of this post...

O'Reilly assaults Obama aide

Class act. Read the rest of this post...