(Note from John and Joe: We're very happy to have
Rob Arena writing with us again. Rob was one of the first people to post on AMERICAblog starting way back in 2004, but took a break to focus on his career. He's working on his own now, which means he can start writing with us again. Rob is a great numbers cruncher and an expert in the world of media.)
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Two polls to cover today.
First, the
Gallup daily tracking poll has Obama up 9 points over McCain. Normally, a horserace poll this early in the election isn't all that important. In looking at the overall trend, however, it's pretty substantial. From Gallup:
This represents a continuation of Obama's front-runner position evident in the last three Gallup Poll Daily tracking updates. The margin, coincident with the extensive U.S. news coverage of Obama's foreign tour, is the largest for Obama over McCain measured since Gallup began tracking the general election horserace in March.
The Gallup poll is a three day moving average - meaning that the spread over the last couple of nights of calling has been sustained. (A three day moving average usually involves creating a sample of 1/3 from each day of polling - the idea being that short term events, or a single day's bad news can't overly skew results.)
This represents the biggest spread of the election in either direction since they started asking the question in March of this year (
full tracking poll results). The most that McCain has lead over Obama is six points - 48% to 42% - back in May. More importantly, this is the highest that Obama has polled and the lowest that McCain has polled.
We're about to come up on the Olympics, and then the Democratic Convention - once those events get started it will be nearly impossible for McCain to get sustained media attention in any positive way. Time is running out for McCain to make a breakthrough against Obama and this helps explain the
air of desperation around his new TV campaign. The clock is ticking down on McCain.
The second poll is on the Hispanic vote. Last week the
Pew Hispanic Center released data that indicates the Hispanic vote now seems to be moving solidly into the Democratic column. John referenced the poll's
immigration issues earlier, but I wanted to pull out a couple of other key points. On the Presidential horserace, Obama beats McCain with Hispanics 66% to 23% The basic favorable / unfavorable numbers for each of the candidates clearly give Obama the advantage - Obama 76%/17%, McCain 44%/47%. The key point - the issues that matter to Hispanic voters are all economic issues. From
Pew:
Latino registered voters rank education, the cost of living, jobs and health care as the most important issues in the fall campaign, with crime lagging a bit behind those four and the war in Iraq and immigration still farther behind.
On each of these economic issues, Hispanics believe nearly 3-1 that Obama will do a better job than McCain. But the economic issue goes well beyond just McCain - overall, fewer Hispanics are looking to the Republican party for solutions to the country's problems:
In addition to their strong support for Obama, Latino voters have moved sharply into the Democratic camp in the past two years, reversing a pro-GOP tide that had been evident among Latinos earlier in the decade. Some 65% of Latino registered voters now say they identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, compared with just 26% who identify with or lean toward the GOP. This 39 percentage point Democratic Party identification edge is larger than it has been at any time this decade; as recently as 2006, the partisan gap was just 21 percentage points.
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More than half of Latino voters (55%) say that the Democratic Party is better for Latinos while just 6% say the Republican Party is better for Latinos.
Much has been written about the death of the Republican "brand" - for Democrats beyond Obama the question is are we winning over Hispanics or are they just disillusioned with Republicans? According to Pew, more Hispanics identify as Democrat than have in the past ten years - the case is clearly being made. This has a potential impact on the entire Fall ticket. For candidates in races with large Hispanic populations, the overall rising tide for Democrats should help open up tight races and may even flip some seats which might otherwise have gone Republican.
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