Video: Playing bagpipes on a unicycle

Now, playing bagpipes on a unicycle is odd. But doing all that and playing the theme to Star Wars is simply inspired.

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So the government didn’t shutdown today...

For those of you curious as to why the government didn't shut down today as feared, HuffPost has the latest. In a nutshell, the bad Republicans went ahead with their bill that doesn't give FEMA enough money for all those disasters we've been having of late, and it cuts funds from programs that create jobs, so the Senate Democrats, with some Republicans to boot, voted it down.  They're going to work on it over the weekend. Read the rest of this post...

Congrats to John Aravosis & AMERICAblog — one of the top 30 political bloggers

Just a quick note to say congratulations to John Aravosis (and AMERICAblog.com) for making PeekScore's list of the 30 top political bloggers.

PeekScore rates political bloggers independent of ideology, so the list contains left, right, center and whatever libertarians are. The right side includes the usual suspects, but John is in good company on the left. Congrats also to Arianna Huffington, Juan Cole, John Amato, Markos Moulitsas, Josh Marshall, Taegan Goddard, Faiz Shakir and Digby.

The full ratings are here. Enjoy.

GP Read the rest of this post...

Naked Capitalism: How markets interpreted the Fed’s Operation Twist as a sign of double dip

Edward Harrison, a financial commentator at BBC World News, CNBC and elsewhere, writes at Yves Smith's excellent Naked Capitalism site about the recent market roilage and its relationship to the Fed's slightly less recent pronouncements.

Bottom line — he doesn't want to say it doesn't look good (for fear of making it worse), but to him, it doesn't look good.

First, for those who don't know, the Fed did something recently, but not a lot. Paul Krugman summarizes:

OK, the Fed moved. It was a bit stronger than expected — and BB [Fed chair Ben Bernanke] and company stood up to the GOP. But seriously, they’re trying to use a water pistol to stop a charging rhino.

Now Harrison, who takes issue with the "stood up to the GOP" part of Krugman's analysis (my emphases):

• The global economy hit stall speed earlier this year as Europe and the US became susceptible to a double dip at the same time.

• Double dip will likely lead to such severe turbulence politically and economically that cohesion could rip apart in a way that creates depression instead of policy support and muddle through. ...

• The Fed statement yesterday, while initially billed as the post-QE3 meeting statement should now be seen as the Fed reload to find its run-out-of-ammo [my hyphens] meeting. I should stress as I did yesterday that “it’s not that monetary stimulus is completely ineffective. It’s that you must really jam it on ...

• The Fed is not going to jam it on. “the Fed is already feeling political heat from its previous policy actions, so it will allow the economy to slip before it embarks on the next round of asset purchases. Therefore, if and when the next recession hits, debt deflation will take hold. The calls for stimulus will be deafening. And because the Fed will have resisted more aggressive prior action, the Fed will then be forced to be extremely aggressive in its policy response. That is when expanding the balance sheet will be a go and the Fed won’t just buy Treasuries, but a lot of other assets too.” [Roubini: No QE3 announcement at Jackson Hole but QE3 will happen]

There's more in the post — he writes about Europe as well and these are just a few of his points.

My translation: Harrison thinks that the Fed feels the bite of the GOP's attack ("Don't you dare help the economy. That helps Obama and it's therefore political." Shameful, yes?)

Therefore Bernanke will wait until help is desperately needed before acting; then he will act with an evident need in front of him, as protective cover as it were. But that will be too late.

As I noted via Twitter, the Fed may well be trying to parse the partisan banana right down the middle. Harrison seems to agree. If so, the timid Bernanke has decided wait for a problem before gathering the posse.

That problem has a name — double dip. And thus the markets' agitation and all that fear.

However, I've said many times that the Big Boys want to hold the Dow above the magic 10,000; and I believe that Dow 11,000 is the buffer they need to feel comfortable. So don't bet on the downside yet; the Bigs have a lot of their own money at stake. Dow between 10,000 and 11,000 is time to be watchful but not frightened, in my opinion.

GP Read the rest of this post...

Study: BP oil from spill not breaking down in Gulf

It sounded unrealistic (and like BP propaganda) when the initial theory was promoted and now it sounds like there's more information on this ongoing problem.

Tar balls washed onto Gulf of Mexico beaches by Tropical Storm Lee earlier this month show that oil left over from last year's BP spill isn't breaking down as quickly as some scientists thought it would, university researchers said Tuesday.

Auburn University experts who studied tar samples at the request of coastal leaders said the latest wave of gooey orbs and chunks appeared relatively fresh, smelled strongly and were hardly changed chemically from the weathered oil that collected on Gulf beaches during the spill.

The study concluded that mats of oil — not weathered tar, which is harder and contains fewer hydrocarbons — are still submerged on the seabed and could pose a long-term risk to coastal ecosystems.

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Former military call on GOP prez candidates to apologize

UPDATE: Rick Santorum has now been forced to join Jon Huntsman in condemning the audience for booing at the GOP debate. But where are the other 7 GOP candidates who said nothing? Where is Bachmann and Gingrich and Romney and Perry?
________

Last night, during the Republican presidential debate, an American soldier serving in Iraq was booed by the audience simply for saying that he was gay, and for asking a question about "Don't Ask, Don't Tell."

And none of the GOP candidates on stage said a word in his defense.

Please sign on to the open letter by former Army Captains Tanya L. Domi, James E. Pietrangelo, II, Brenda S. "Sue" Fulton, Jonathan Hopkins, and former West Point cadet Katherine Miller, each of whom had a lead role in bringing down "Don't Ask, Don't Tell," demanding that all the Republican presidential candidates denounce the disrespect that was shown to soldier Stephen Hill during the Republican debate. The more signatures we get, the more the media will pressure politicians to stand up.

To the Republican presidential candidates:

Each and every one of you owes our American service members an apology.

Thursday night, during the Republican presidential debate in Florida, an American soldier serving in Iraq was booed by the audience simply for saying that he was gay, and for asking a question about "Don't Ask, Don't Tell."

Nine of you were on that stage, and none of you said a word.

After the debate, one lone candidate, Jon Huntsman, had the decency to speak out in defense of the soldier, saying: "You know, we’re all Americans, and the fact that he is an American who put on the uniform says something good about him."

This isn't about politics, it doesn't matter if you're a Republican or a Democrat, and it has nothing to do with where you stand on the issue of gays in the military. This is about showing an American service member a basic level of respect for serving this country.

We urge each of you to speak out against the disrespectful way in which soldier Stephen Hill was treated during your debate.

Sincerely,

Tanya L. Domi, former Army Captain
James E. Pietrangelo, II, former Army Captain
Brenda S. "Sue" Fulton, former Army Captain
Jonathan Hopkins, former Army Captain
Katherine Miller, former West Point cadet
John Aravosis, AMERICAblog

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Video: Playboy bunnies surprise Chicago weatherman on the air

It's a rainy Friday after a somewhat weird week politically.  Time for a bunny break. This one gave me a chuckle.

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Olmert, Livni on the recognition of Palestine at the UN and the Two State solution.

I don't normally bother with US press stories on Israel. CAMERA, AIPAC and others have well organized campaigns that complain about the slightest deviation from the Israel lobby line. I know because the requests for outrage are forwarded to the family mailing list. Since it is assumed that only Zionists care about such stories, the establishment press is happy to oblige. As a result you will get a better understanding of the Israeli position from the lunatic rightwing Jerusalem Post than the New York Times.

But a NYT Op-ed written by a former Israeli Prime Minister is a very different matter. Ehud Olmert's piece today tries to point out the real stakes in the diplomatic maneuvering taking place in the UN:

The window of opportunity is limited. Israel will not always find itself sitting across the table from Palestinian leaders like Mr. Abbas and the prime minister, Salam Fayyad, who object to terrorism and want peace. Indeed, future Palestinian leaders might abandon the idea of two states and seek a one-state solution, making reconciliation impossible.

Tizipi Livni made a related point in a more robust fashion in the Knesset:

"The diplomatic stupidity that characterizes this government is causing it to put the United States into a corner," said Livni, speaking during a special Knesset debate on Monday ahead of the Palestinian statehood bid at the United Nations.

Virtually all the accounts of the Palestinian move presents it as an attempt to put pressure on Israel. I think they are badly mistaken. Abbas is no fool and he knows that Netanyahu is immune to all outside pressure.

For the PLO this is a last, desperate attempt to keep the two state solution alive. By getting the UN to vote to recognize the Palestinian State, Abbas hopes to make the two state solution a fact on the ground.

The two state deal was always a much better deal for the PLO than for the Palestinian people. In return for recognizing the confiscation of land and ethnic cleansing of 1948 as permanent, the PLO would be permitted to rule a Mubarak-style pseudo-democracy in Gaza and the West Bank.

When the consequences of the two state solution are stated in these terms it becomes much easier to understand the rise of Hamas. The 'demographic time bomb' that worries Zionists is the reason that Hamas believes they will eventually prevail.

There is also a demographic time bomb ticking in the US. Despite the Islamophobia in the wake of 9/11, the Muslim population in the US is now 2.6 million and growing fast. The Jewish population is 5.2 million and slowly declining. There is a clear generational divide between older and younger Jews.

Meanwhile the Arab Spring is upsetting the political assumptions of Hamas, the PLO, and Israel at the same time. Hamas can no longer assume that the Palestinian people will acquiesce to their proposed theocratic state. The PLO is going to have to leave power when they lose an election. Israel may no longer be able to claim the support of the West as 'the only democracy in the Middle East'.

The region is certainly changing and it is clear that the current situation cannot hold. But what can replace it?

Update: Fixed the spelling. Read the rest of this post...

Another day, another GOP Presidential debate.

It appears it is not just me who is getting tired of these affairs. Every liberal blog (including this one) seems to have opted for the 'open thread' approach. Just what more is there that can be said? Can Bachmann get any weirder? Paul any whackier? Romney any phonier? Perry any more cruel or more ignorant? Santorum any more frothy?

Time I thought to plunge into the wingnutosphere to see what I can find. Well this is their party after all.

Seems like most of the right wing blogs are as bored of the constant debates as me. Though my first port of call, Little Green Footballs turns out to have arrived at the same conclusion on the GOP as I have: Its a dangerous cult. Johnson has also gone for the 'open thread' option.

So off to Powerline, only they seem to be ignoring the debate altogether. How about the American Spectator? Same there. OK, lets try RedState:

Good Lord this was the worst debate I think I’ve ever watched.

Flipping back to the liberal blog postmortems, well the only surprise is two, maybe three members of the audience boo-ing an active duty US soldier asking Santorum a question about the repeal of DADT.

This moment of cringe seems to becoming a regular feature. First it was applauding Perry for 234 executions in his state, then cheering the idea of letting an uninsured man die. Now its booing US soldiers. Read the rest of this post...

Latest on government shutdown showdown; Teabaggers sell out

Sounds like some pretty weak tea, from ThinkProgress:

On Wednesday night, House Republicans failed to pass a continuing resolution to keep the government funded beyond Sept. 30, as 48 Republicans cut ranks with their leadership and voted against the measure (as did all but six Democrats, who object to the bill’s level of disaster aid and cuts to a vehicle manufacturing program). House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) was reportedly incensed at the members who abandoned him on the vote, deriding them as “know-it-alls who have all the right answers.”

But early this morning, the House was able to pass a CR, after Boehner and the Republican leadership added a $100 million cut to a Department of Energy loan program. Other than that cut, the bill was exactly the same as the one the House defeated on Wednesday. But the additional cut was enough to entice 23 Republican members into flipping their votes.

Just to be clear, the Teabagger Republicans who switched their votes and are now for the CR switched it for the measly $100 million cut out an entire $1 trillion bill. I believe that's a 0.01% cut from the bill. Wow, I think I can see the deficit shrinking from my kitchen window!

So, in the end, the Teabagger caucus in the House is just like every other corrupt Republican member of Congress. Put enough pressure on them, and they sell out their principles.

Of course, the CR still may be in trouble.  Democrats say it's not nearly enough money to help pay for the natural disasters nationwide, and Democrats have demanded that Republicans pass a clean bill, with no offsets.  So stay tuned. Read the rest of this post...

Elizabeth Warren talks about the debt crisis and taxes

We could use a few like Warren in Washington. Read the rest of this post...

Youth unemployment at highest level since WWII

Unemployment is never good for any group but it's troubling to see such high rates for young workers. The problem is not specific to the US because Europe has painfully high numbers as well. For all of the talk about tax cuts and their supposed impact on jobs (which is highly overstated) it is not the answer for the real jobs that are needed. What chances for the future does the youth have if they start their working career like this?

"We have a monster jobs problem, and young people are the biggest losers," Andrew Sum, an economist with the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University told the Associated Press.

Just 55.3 percent of people between 16 and 29 were employed in 2010 on average, the according to new figures released by the Census Bureau. That represents an enormous drop from 67.3 percent in 2000. Among teens the figure was less than 30 percent.

The result? Young people are delaying taking the steps that traditionally represent movement into adult life: moving to a new place, getting married, and buying a new home. Just 4.4 percent of 18- to 34-year olds moved across state lines -- again, the lowest level since World War Two (though such moves have been declining since long before the recent downturn, it's worth noting). Roughly 5.9 million Americans between 25 and 34 lived with their parents. That's up by 25 percent since before the recession began in late 2007. (Men are nearly twice as likely as women to move back in with Mom and Dad.) The marriage rate for those between 25 and 34 fell to 44.2 percent, also a new low. And home ownership declined for the fourth straight year.

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Niagara Falls—Frozen solid 100 years ago

Not much I want to write about after the "execution" of Troy Davis in Georgia last night, which feels so much like a "you can't stop me" from the state.

A cop is killed; cops go nuts at the thought (as they always do); a black man is arrested, witnessed are "produced" (induced); a black life for a cop life; and a state that digs in its heels. (Does it matter that Obama is president? Sometimes it's hard to find the boundaries of Tea Bag Nation.)

So here, from the photo archives of the distant past, as collected by David Blaine, is a picture from the era before women bobbed their hair (supposedly 1911, but no verifiable provenance available).

The Niagara River and Niagara Falls, frozen solid. (Click it to big it; it's quite the shot.)



Notice in the large image the women's hats, especially the one on our right. Women's hats were a good indication of social status or class. This is one wealthy family, from back when most of the money flowed upward, there was a small middle class (doctors were the low end of the wealthy, for example), and everyone else was working to survive — and I do mean everyone else.

When we look at (or read books set in) a pre-FDR world, the 90% or so of "everyone else" disappears, since the subjects (or heroes) are usually the upper class, in one of its flavors. The family in the picture above likely had money to travel (I hear the following year they took that long, expensive train ride to Yellowstone.)

Voilà our future, in two senses. (The climate sense needs no comment; the point sorta makes itself.)

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