Palin supports Gingrich and herself

The half term governor who quit because the job was too stressful just wants everyone to know that she's there to help in case the GOP needs a strong candidate. Didn't she throw out the same hint last week? She may be a bad politician but wow, she really knows the art of self promotion and cashing in on it. Tanned, rested and ready.

Although it would be an unlikely scenario, Palin said she might consider throwing her hat into the ring if pressed. She was asked specifically what she would do if the Republican party faced an open convention this August -- meaning none of the current candidates would have sewn up the nomination by then -- and someone asked her to stand. "Anything is possible. I don't close any doors that perhaps would be open out there, so no, I wouldn't close that door. My plan is to be at that convention," she told CNN in her hometown of Wasilla, Alaska.

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Romney has no idea how much his tax plan will cost

For a party that shredded John Kerry for being a flip-flopper, it's amazing what a flip-flopper they have this year. Not only can he not stay consistent with any position, he can't even say how much his tax plan will cost or if it will add to the deficit. What is potentially interesting about his CNBC interview is that he sounds open to changing the tax code for people like himself. We all know how he can change his position but it sure sounds like Romney is trying to move to the middle and win over the independent voters who will decide the outcome in November.

Romney said he was surprised that such assertions were being made because his plan "can't be scored." He says he'll have to work with Congress on the details before he can estimate how much the plan will cost. Romney previously has insisted that his plan to cut marginal individual tax rates by 20 percent won't increase the deficit because he would limit deductions and exemptions for the wealthy. He hasn't outlined what those changes would be, and says he'll work with Congress. Romney, a former private equity executive, also said he is open to examining the taxation of some investment fund managers, including the treatment of their "carried interest" gains.

The carried interest gains tax rate has to change. People using this (like Romney) are not using their own money to gamble, so there's no reason why they should have all of the advantages. It's done little more than make hedge fund types wads of cash as though they were risking their life savings, but they weren't. On this issue, Romney is playing catchup to Obama who has already called for an end to this tax break. Read the rest of this post...

Rush Limbaugh attacks another woman

The Atlantic has been interviewing Tracie McMillan, an author who's the latest target of Rush Limbaugh's hate talk. Their quote from Tuesday's show:

What is it with all of these young single white women, overeducated -- doesn't mean intelligent. For example, Tracie McMillan, the author of this book, seems to be just out of college and already she has been showered with awards, including the 2006 James Aronson Award for Social Justice Journalism. … Her degree is not in food or nutrition. She has a B.A. from New York University in political science.

It might just be me but I am pretty sure that Limbaugh does not have a degree in food or nutrition either -- so if she needs such a degree to write the book, why doesn't he need one to critique it? And I am very sure that he has never gone undercover to work in an Applebee's, to highlight what it's like to work at such a place, which is the reporting that the book is based on. In particular why would a degree in food or nutrition be required to comment on this type of behavior (from an article she wrote promoting the book):

The raunchiness of cooks has always been legendary, but kitchen lit and reality TV have given it a glamorous sheen. I had a hankering to prove that I could hold my own. My co-workers tested me nonstop. When Geoff, a dark-skinned Caribbean cook asked me if I liked chocolate, and said he preferred vanilla, I rolled my eyes. When Christopher, born and raised in a rough part of the city, puffed up his chest, tapped me on the collarbone and said, “I’ma put my name right there, on a chain, ’round your neck,” I pursed my lips, said, “I would like to see you try, motherfucker,” and we both laughed. I learned that "culo" meant ass, and made sure to ask Joel, a cook, if there was a problem when I caught him eyeing mine.

Her reporting is not even particularly anti-corporate. The real target is the bigoted, misogynistic trash talkers. That is, her target is people like Rush Limbaugh.

John has a number of the current Limbaugh advertisers in a sidebar to the right of this post, please contact them. Read the rest of this post...

Operation Hilarity was a good idea destined to fail

I know that John disagrees with me about the relative merit of Operation Hilarity, an organized effort to buoy Rick Santorum with Democratic votes in open primary states.  But I think that it is important to examine why it did not achieve the success that we (or at least I) hoped it could have.

In theory, Democrats that want to take down Mitt Romney could potentially do more good for President Obama by voting for Rick Santorum in open primary states than sending the President five bucks; facing a weaker candidate in the general election is worth just as much to the Obama campaign as a LOT of small contributions. It was in this spirit that Markos Moulitsas of Daily Kos launched Operation Hilarity.

But crossover voting generally proves to be a huge collective action problem because it's too easy to free-ride on the crossover votes of your fellow partisans (meaning, you assume your friends are voting so you don't have to). As proved to be the case with Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos in 2008 (which urged GOP voters to support Hillary in open primaries in order to prolong the Democratic nominating process), it's a difficult proposition to reach the scale required to overcome the free-rider problem, and therefore large amounts of crossover votes are hard to come by.

An article I just published for NextGen Journal gets into the details of why I think this is the case. If you can bear with rational choice theory language, it offers a theoretical explanation for why Operation Hilarity didn't live up to its billing in Michigan or on Super Tuesday, and what all of this says about American democracy. Read the rest of this post...

Video compilation of Limbaugh attacking Sandra Fluke 70 times

This is f'g brilliant from ThinkProgress. Whoever came up with this idea needs to get a raise. THIS IS HOW YOU RUN A CAMPAIGN. Freaking brilliant. This is all the instances of Rush Limbaugh suggesting Sandra Fluke was a sex fiend, said over a three day period, compiled together in one video. Limbaugh claimed in his "apology" that he chose "two words" inappropriately. Hardly. Watch and share. And serious kudos to whoever at ThinkProgress came up with this. THIS is advocacy.

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Video song: Rick Santorum is my man (seriously)

I particularly like the girl from Heathers doing her recurring cameo with that fabulous hair and earrings.  This might just be this election season's "Hillary for you and me."  On a more serious note, I'm not sure I want Santorum putting anything "in my hands," but that's just me.

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ADP report predicts 216,000 new jobs in January

If their report turns out to be accurate (not always a given, these numbers are often revised later) then this will be even more good news on the economy. The break even point with incoming job seekers is around 150,000 new jobs. The official government report will be released on Friday.

The pace of job creation by private employers accelerated more than expected in February, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday. The private sector added 216,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment Report showed, topping economists’ expectations for a gain of 208,000. January’s payrolls figures were revised up to an increase of 173,000 from 170,000.

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Pingree not running for Snowe's Senate seat

Joe says this is bad. He's at the dentist, will weigh in later.

Congresswoman Chellie Pingree issued the following statement today:

After careful consideration I have decided to run for re-election to the U.S. House this year. This has been a very difficult decision and I will always be grateful for the tremendous support I’ve received from people all across Maine and around the country. I have been humbled by the enthusiastic encouragement I’ve gotten—from my neighbors here in Maine to my colleagues in Washington.

There is much at stake in this election and although the prospect of running for and possibly serving in the United States Senate was very exciting, in the end I concluded that I will best serve the people of Maine by running for re-election to the House.

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Video: Kitten meets cursor

Your moment of zen, courtesy of AMERICAblog reader Marianne and her kitten.

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8 new advertisers dump Limbaugh, bringing the total to 43 or so

From ThinkProgress we learn of 8 new advertisers who have dropped Rush Limbaugh's radio show:

Consolidated Credit, Constant Contact, RSVP Discount Beverage, Cunningham Security, Regal Assets, Freedom Debt Relief, Norway Savings Bank, and Portland Ovations have pulled ads from the program.

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Video shows worthlessness of TSA porno-scanners

Basically, he found that if you hide a metal object on your side, the TSA nude body scanners may not see it.  They didn't when he snuck something through repeatedly.  Here's the link to his website as well as an interesting Reddit discussion about the video. Some readers suggested that the TSA could simply ask people to turn and do additional scans, but that is both a health issue as well as a problem for the TSA due to false positives. You may recall the German TV program from 2010 that showed the uselessness of the porno-scanners and now this. This is a very expensive waste for bad technology. Read the rest of this post...

What are Iran's intentions?

In previous posts, we looked at the recent press-driven run-up to war with Iran; and looked at Israel's likely strategy (here and especially here).

Now let's look at Iran's side. Based on my reading and observation, I think Noam Chomsky gets it exactly right in this recent piece, "What are Iran's intentions?"

As usual with Chomsky, there's more in the article than just the answer to the headline. I therefore suggest you read it through (it's not long, and very accessible).

This is the Iran part.

Chomsky first notes the work of Israeli strategist Zeev Maoz, who says “the balance sheet of Israel’s nuclear policy is decidedly negative” and who calls for a WMD-free zone (WMDFZ) in the Middle East (which was also called for by a 1974 U.N. General Assembly resolution, by the way). That WMD-free zone would include Israel, Iran, India and Pakistan.

Then he takes a look at Iran's historical strategic posture (my emphasis and some reparagraphing):

There is little credible discussion of just what constitutes the Iranian threat, though we do have an authoritative answer, provided by U.S. military and intelligence. Their presentations to Congress make it clear that Iran doesn’t pose a military threat.

Iran has very limited capacity to deploy force, and its strategic doctrine is defensive, designed to deter invasion long enough for diplomacy to take effect. If Iran is developing nuclear weapons (which is still undetermined), that would be part of its deterrent strategy.

The understanding of serious Israeli and U.S. analysts is expressed clearly by 30-year CIA veteran Bruce Riedel, who said in January, “If I was an Iranian national security planner, I would want nuclear weapons” as a deterrent.

Chomsky adds that Iran's support for "neighboring countries attacked and occupied by the U.S. and Britain" and "resistance to the U.S.-backed Israeli aggression" in Lebanon and Palestine are said to "intolerable threats to 'global order.'"

But the best way to defuse that any threat to "global order" in the region, bar none, is the aforementioned WMD-free zone, including Israel.

Will the U.S. support that solution? Chomsky:

Global opinion agrees with Maoz. Support is overwhelming for a WMDFZ in the Middle East; this zone would include Iran, Israel and preferably the other two nuclear powers ... India and Pakistan, who, along with Israel, developed their programs with U.S. aid.

Support for this policy at the NPT Review Conference in May 2010 was so strong that Washington was forced to agree formally, but with conditions:

■ The zone could not take effect until a comprehensive peace settlement between Israel and its Arab neighbors was in place;

■ Israel’s nuclear weapons programs must be exempted from international inspection;

■ and no country (meaning the U.S.) must be obliged to provide information about “Israeli nuclear facilities and activities, including information pertaining to previous nuclear transfers to Israel.”

A death knell for any serious attempt.

My take-aways:

(1) Iran's posture is generally defensive. Again, this isn't me or Chomsky talking. It's from U.S. military and intelligence officials in presentations to Congress.

(2) If they do develop WMDs to counter Israel, it would be within that defensive paradigm.

(3) Therefore, the best way to kill off that threat would obviously be to support the WMD-free zone in the Middle East that includes all important (and currently nuclear parties).

What could be simpler? No nukes for anyone. And what could be more difficult?

Further reading: Steve Clemons has an interesting piece in The Atlantic on the Obama-Netanyahu negotiation here.

GP

(To follow on Twitter: @Gaius_Publius) Read the rest of this post...

Mean Jean Schmidt (R-Ohio) loses GOP primary; Joe the Plumber wins; and Romney still limping along

You remember her. Nasty nasty nasty Republican congresswoman. And she's GONE. Of course, the downside is that the guy who beat her is a bigger nut than she is, and he's expected to win the seat in the fall. He's against raising the debt ceiling, and wants to repeal health care reform (even though I'll bet you he can't name three things the bill even does). Oh, and he's bummed that we pulled out of Iraq - he thinks the troops should be there permanently, like they are in Germany and Japan. But he says he's against wasteful spending. Uh huh.

Speak of crazy, Joe the Plumber won his primary in Ohio.

Oh yeah, there were those other races last night.  Mitt Romney appeared to finally win Ohio last night, but only barely, thus guaranteeing that the bruising GOP primary battle will continue for a while.  NYT's Jim Rutenberg:

Far from bringing new clarity to the race as some in the party had hoped, Tuesday’s results gave every candidate cause to keep driving forward — including Newt Gingrich, who won a definitive victory in Georgia. They also dashed Mr. Romney’s hope of using the night to assert himself as the inevitable nominee.

The battle for Ohio was viewed as the most critical to determining whether Mr. Romney could finally emerge as solidly on his way to winning his party’s nomination or was heading into an even longer fight.

And if Mr. Romney’s aides were hoping that Super Tuesday would spell at least the beginning of the end of the nominating season, his losses in Georgia and Tennessee renewed questions about his political strength in the Republican bastion of the South.

It's so much more fun watching them tear each other part than watching ourselves. Read the rest of this post...

Video: Dog seriously loves his mouse toy

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The economic impact of the pill

This was probably already covered by noted feminist Rush Limbaugh, so in case you missed it the NY Times has a blog post about the broader impact of the pill on society.

Indeed, as the economist Betsey Stevenson has noted, a number of studies have shown that by allowing women to delay marriage and childbearing, the pill has also helped them invest in their skills and education, join the work force in greater numbers, move into higher-status and better-paying professions and make more money over all. One of the most influential and frequently cited studies of the impact the pill has had on women’s lives comes from Claudia Goldin and Lawrence F. Katz. The two Harvard economists argue that the pill gave women “far greater certainty regarding the pregnancy consequences of sex.” That “lowered the costs of engaging in long-term career investments,” freeing women to finish high school or go to college, for instance, rather than settling down.

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Eurozone on edge of recession as China also slows

While the US is showing signs of life with the economy, Europe and China are showing signs of trouble ahead. US companies have been doing well with overseas business so the news of problems abroad will not be good. In Europe's case, the economy barely kept its head above water last quarter and will likely fall when the numbers for January through March are calculated.

GDP in the single currency area fell 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2011 in the first contraction since the eurozone left recession in 2009. Confirming its previous estimate, the European Union statistics office, Eurostat, reported falling activity across the board. As businesses and households alike battled rising unemployment, austerity measures and ongoing worries around the sovereign debt crisis, consumer spending was down 0.4%, exports fell 0.4%, government spending fell 0.2% and industry dropped 2%. Net trade helped stem the fall in overall GDP but that was merely because imports to the troubled currency zone tumbled 1.2%.

In the case of China, the growth is still high but probably not high enough to absorb the even stronger need for new jobs to keep afloat with the growing work force. China also has the challenge of a government-fueled real estate bubble, plus a weak export market. We no longer live in a bubble, so these troubled economies will certainly impact the US. The only question is how much of an impact, when they decline. Read the rest of this post...