Open Thread

Don't overlook Rudy Giuliani's two sixth place finishes today. And, with Duncan Hunter out of the race, Rudy is now the last place guy.

And, I'll ask again: who is the GOP front runner now? Mitt? McCain? This could get good and ugly. Let's hope it does. Those two can't stand each other.

Thread openly. Read the rest of this post...

McCain wins South Carolina GOP Primary

So, a win for McCain. Who is the GOP front runner now?

8:21pm: Well we're off for dinner, so feel free to post South Carolina updates in the comments. Latest results, 22% of returns in, Huckabee 28%, McCain 36%, Thompson and Romney both with 15%.

Polls closed at 7:00 PM. The networks have been exit polling and according to Wolf Blitzer, it's a very close race between Huckabee and McCain. Close for third between Thompson and Romney.

One quick thing: Ron Paul came in second today in Nevada beating former GOP presumptive front runners McCain, Huckabee, Thompson and Giuliani. And, it's not like Nevadans don't know McCain. He's from a neighboring state as my friend JA pointed out.

UPDATE 7:37 PM: Duncan Hunter has dropped out of the GOP race. Rudy Giuliani now has last place to himself.

Results are coming in slow tonight from South Carolina. Only 12% reporting as of 8:00 PM. Read the rest of this post...

The next wave of the real estate crash?

If the banks are preparing for the fallout, this may be getting more serious. I wondered where people found the money for the McMansions across the US but that too seems to be made up as well.

There are also signs some lenders are warily eyeing "prime" borrowers. Tom Kelly, spokesman for Chase Home Lending, a unit of JPMorgan Chase & Co, said the company raised its reserves for possible home equity loan loss for subprime and prime borrowers by $635 million in the second and third quarters last year.

"The concern is people who have borrowed a large percentage of the equity (in their homes)," Kelly said. "Now the value of their homes is falling and they can't refinance."

"Some just stop paying and walk away," he added.

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Hillary Clinton wins Nevada caucus

5:00 I'm hearing from sources in Vegas that the Democratic turnout was huge, far more than expected, and that the number of new voters registered was also huge. That bodes well for us in the fall, and would continue the pattern of strong interest among Dems in this election.

4:06 PM: NBC just called Nevada for Hillary Clinton.

Senator Hillary Clinton: 50.33%
Senator Barack Obama: 45.26%
Senator John Edwards: 4.14%
Uncommitted: 0.23%
Congressman Dennis Kucinich: 0.05%
Senator Mike Gravel: 0%

78.96% precincts reporting

This just in: A political friend in Vegas just called to report that Hillary is doing better than expected across the casino caucues, even the ones that haven't been reported on TV yet. This is bad for Obama, as in order to win Nevada he needs to win Las Vegas, where he has union support, and win it big. My friend, who is quite good at such things, says he thinks Hillary is going to win Nevada. Read the rest of this post...

The Democrats are caucusing in Nevada

The caucuses are underway in Nevada. Wolf Blitzer said that entrance polls showed there was a strong expression of support for Obama and Clinton and a less for Edwards.

At the caucus, the participants up among their presidential preference. If a candidate isn't viable (doesn't have 15% support), that candidate's supporters can leave or choose to support another candidate. There will be second calculation of support and that's what will be reported. So, this could take awhile -- especially as this is the first time Nevada has had an early caucus like this.

We'll be monitoring results. Read the rest of this post...

If the election were about milkshakes

From AllTooFlat via Boing Boing:

I drink your milkshake, even though I opposed drinking your milkshake four years ago. -- Mitt Romney

I drink your milkshake, but only if the Bible says it's allowed. -- Mike Huckabee

I may drink your milkshake for another 100 years, if that's what it takes. -- John McCain

I drank a milkshake on 9/11. -- Rudy Giuliani

I drink your milkshake, but I'm paying for it with gold. -- Ron Paul

I will fight the corporations so that you can drink your own milkshake. -- John Edwards

I change your milkshake -- Barack Obama

I peacefully drink your milkshake. -- Dennis Kucinich

I have 35 years of milkshake-drinking experience. *sob* -- Hillary Clinton

Global warming is melting your milkshake -- Al Gore

My additions:

Yo bebo un milkshake pero a nadie le importa. -- Bill Richardson

I drank Harry Reid's milkshake. -- Chris Dodd

Other suggestions? Improvements on the ones above? Here are a few from our readers:

I think I might buy myself this milkshake -- Michael Bloomberg

A Mexican stole my milkshake. -- Tom Tancredo

Hitler's milkshakes could awe even those who despised him. -- Pat Buchanan

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AP calls Nevada GOP caucuses for Romney

No big surprise. Romney was the only one of the GOP front runners to take Nevada seriously. AP already made the call:

Republican Mitt Romney won Nevada's caucuses Saturday while John McCain and Mike Huckabee dueled in the South Carolina primary, a campaign doubleheader likely to winnow the crowded field of presidential rivals.

CNN hasn't called Nevada in the Republican race yet. According to Wolf, AP made its projection "on the basis of the entrance polls." CNN will wait for the official numbers to come in.

UPDATE 2:10 PM: CNN just called Nevada for Romney. McCain and Ron Paul are fighting over second place. Rudy is in sixth place. Read the rest of this post...

76% of Americans see recession

The country can't afford any more Republican economics. Their policies are going to drag the global economies down as well.

More than three in four Americans believe the U.S. economy is already in a recession, or will be sometime in 2008. That's according to a comprehensive poll commissioned this week by Fortune Magazine.

Only 19 percent of 1,000 Americans surveyed believe the nation will avoid a recession, while 57 percent believe that there will be a downturn this year. Another 19 percent believe the nation is already in a recession.

What's worse for the economic outlook, just about half of those surveyed say that they've cut back their spending compared to last year.

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Canada: United States tortures. Diplomats taught 'U.S. interrogation techniques'

Our neighbor to the north had added the United States to its list of nations that torture:

In Canada, the United States has joined a notorious group of countries -- Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Afghanistan and China, among others -- as a place where foreigners risk torture and abuse, according to a training manual for Canadian diplomats that was accidentally given this week to Amnesty International lawyers.

The manual is intended to create "greater awareness among consular officials to the possibility of Canadians detained abroad being tortured." Part of the workshop is devoted to teaching diplomats how to identify people who have been tortured. It features a section on "U.S. interrogation techniques," including forced nudity, hooding and isolation.

Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Afghanistan and China...good company. All strong democracies, right? This should make George Bush so proud. Quite a legacy. Read the rest of this post...

Saturday Morning Open Thread

Good morning.

Big day. The candidate selection portion of the Nevada Democratic caucuses starts at noon Pacific time. We should be getting actual results within an hour or two of that - probably closer to 5:00 Eastern/2:00 Pacific. South Carolina's polls close at 7:00 PM Eastern time. Should have a good idea about how that's heading pretty quickly. There is a GOP caucus in Nevada (9:00 a.m. Pacific) -- seems Mitt is the only one taking it somewhat seriously.

If you want a break from politics, check out the poem of the week. It's "The River Merchant's Wife: A Letter" by Li Po.

Have at it. Read the rest of this post...

Tom Ridge: 'Waterboarding is torture'

Thanks. That much is obvious to anyone with a brain but where the hell was this guy when times were tough? It's great to hear people like this speak out but I've about had it with them all saying nothing when we really need them. What, does he want to get a new job or something? Is that why he's now talking? My lasting memory of Ridge is him scaring the American public with ridiculous terrorist warnings that turned out to be false, time after time. Great for election victories, but not so great for the supposed leader of the free world.

"One of America's greatest strengths is the soft power of our value system and how we treat prisoners of war, and we don't torture," Ridge said in the interview.

Wonderful, but I always thought one of our greatest strengths was telling the truth and not just leaning on the word "democracy" when it was convenient. Where was our value system when Ridge was at Homeland Security? What an ass. Read the rest of this post...

Anybody But Blair spreads across Europe

Outside of Sarkozy, Blair doesn't appear to be very popular. The Bush boot-licking and pro-war position isn't helping his ascension to EU president.

Hence the alarmed reaction of M. Giscard and M. Balladur. M. Giscard, 81, told a committee of the French National Assembly he would not be a candidate but added that the job must go only to a politician from a country which "respected all Europe's commitments" and whose public opinion was whole-heartedly European. In other words, no Tony Blair and no Brits.

M. Balladur, who was prime minister from 2003 to 2005, said in the newspaper Le Monde: "To be accepted by all, the president of the Union must come from a country... determined to build European independence, especially in defence and foreign affairs.

"How could Mr Blair embody this ambition when, in the disastrous episode in Iraq, he always clung zealously to the views of the US or even incited them? Mr Blair is, for sure, a remarkable person but he cannot be the symbol of a Europe which wants to exist."

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