Erratic McCain praises, then criticizes, Bush

From MSNBC.

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Does Matt Drudge really want to be accusing anyone of hypocrisy on gay issues?

If the chaps fit...

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Fund-amentally Wrong

Remember that false story about Obama sending "an army of lawyers" to Alaska to vet Palin? Guess who spread the lie. The Wall Street Journal's John Fund. He's now spreading more lies about Obama in a desperate attempt to make Sarah Palin president. It's amazing any publication (et tu, Politico?) other than Rupert Murdoch's Wall Street Journal would even trust this guy. Read the rest of this post...

UPDATED with CBS & USA Today/Gallup: Sunday Night poll fix from Washington Post/ABC: "sizable advantage" and "closing strongly"

ANOTHER UPDATE: Just got this via email from Gallup.com:

The final USA Today/Gallup 2008 pre-election poll predicts Barack Obama will be elected the 44th president of the United States, as he holds a 55% to 44% advantage over John McCain in the allocated estimate of the 2008 presidential vote

________________

UPDATE: Another national poll tonight from CBS News:

With two days left until the presidential election, Barack Obama continues to lead John McCain by 13 points among likely voters, 54 percent to 41 percent, a new CBS News poll finds. The margin in the new poll, released Sunday, is identical to that in a CBS News poll released Saturday.

___________________________
The latest update from the Washington Post/ABC News daily tracking poll looks good. I'll provide analysis from the Post and ABC, which should calm everyone's nerves a bit before bedtime.

First, the Post:

Sen. Barack Obama holds a sizable advantage over John McCain just two days before the longest and most expensive presidential campaign in history comes to a close.

After nearly two years of ads, rallies, debates and barnstorming, Obama is up 54 to 43 percent among likely voters, in the new Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll. And the ranks of persuadable voters has dwindled to 7 percent heading into the final day. One part of McCain's steep challenge is that more than a quarter of the probable electorate has already voted - among these early birds, 59 percent said they voted for Obama, 40 percent for McCain.

Obama has firmly reestablished his advantage on handling the economy (back up to 15 points) and beaten back a challenge on taxes (he's +11 there). On handling an unexpected major crisis, what had been a double-digit McCain lead to start the fall campaign, is now a 6-point advantage for Obama.

Now, ABC:

Barack Obama, closing strongly in the campaign’s final weekend, matched his best advantage over John McCain to date in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll. Economic concerns are pushing his support beyond the Democratic base to unusual levels in the political center and even among more traditionally Republican groups.

Beyond his advantage on the economy and taxes, Obama’s being boosted by sustained unusually high levels of enthusiasm among his supporters, and by his ability to remain competitive with McCain in trust to handle a crisis – cutting to the “experience” question that has been Obama’s greatest risk.

Overall, 54 percent of likely voters support Obama, 43 percent McCain in ABC/Post interviews the past four nights, exactly where the race was a week and a half ago.

Also, I wanted to spotlight this poll from Iowa's Des Moines Register:

Obama has widened what was a solid lead in the Midwestern swing state, and has strengthened his position on key leadership traits since the Register's September poll. Meanwhile, support for McCain and perceptions of his abilities have slipped despite several campaign appearances in the state this fall.

Obama, an Illinois senator, was the choice of 54 percent of likely voters, while McCain, an Arizona senator, was the choice of 37 percent.

It's a blowout. But, just Friday, the McCain campaign claimed Iowa was "dead even."

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Howard Dean will be campaigning in Arizona tomorrow

It really is a 50-state strategy. And, Arizona is in play.

Via email from the DNC:

On Monday, November 3rd DNC Chairman Howard Dean will spend the last full day of the 2008 presidential election helping to get out the vote for Democrats in John McCain's home state of Arizona. Dean will headline a Get Out the Vote Rally with local Democrats in Tucson, Arizona on the heels of Arizona being moved from "Leaning McCain" to "Toss Up" by Real Clear Politics.

Democrats are organized, motivated and ready to bring about the positive change our country needs. Recent polls in Arizona indicate that the election will be close and Gov. Dean is committed to Getting Out the Vote in support of Obama-Biden and Democrats up-and-down the ballot.

Love it. Read the rest of this post...

How many times has John McCain offered an inclusive message?

Obama gave a message of inclusion today, even mentioning gays. He's been doing that a lot lately, and I've noticed - mentioning my people. John McCain has not. At all. Yet the gay Republicans have endorsed McCain. And what has it gotten them? Seriously, what has it gotten them? A place at the table? What table would that be? A table where their candidate doesn't even dare say their name? A table where their candidate doesn't support even one piece of civil rights legislation protecting them?

There are only two things gays and lesbians can say positive about John McCain. One, he doesn't mind surrounding himself by senior staff who are "gay activists" (under the Republican definition, thereof), or more generally, openly gay. And that's great. But let's not get carried away. That's like saying John McCain's top civil rights credential is that he doesn't fire his staff for being black.

The other "great" thing the gay Republicans say about McCain is that he opposes the anti-gay amendment to the US Constitution. But that's not really true. What McCain has said is that he opposes the amendment FOR THE MOMENT because WE DON'T NEED IT YET. That's a far cry from opposing the amendment. And what's worse, the blithering idiot supports the amendment, and we all know that there's a decent chance that the blithering idiot is going to be president sometime in the next four years if McCain wins on Tuesday.

And another thing, McCain has lent his support to the anti-gay proposition in California that will revoke the marriages of thousands of gay couples, making their children bastards. It will also be a massive gay rights setback if we lose.

So vote for McCain if you're a Republican, and you think the country is going swell. But spare us the "I'm voting for him because he's pro-gay" crap. The man is deathly afraid to even say our name. Read the rest of this post...

Liddy Dole's "'Godless Americans" ad is blowing up in her face"

Liddy Dole deserves to lose for so many reasons. But, in the end, Dole really did herself in with that "godless" ad she ran against Kay Hagan. Public Policy Polling's blog, (PPP is based in North Carolina) had this analysis:

It is pretty clear to me based on our polling this weekend that Kay Hagan will be headed to the US Senate unless something very bizarre happens in the next 72 hours. While numbers in the races for President and Governor are basically unchanged from last week there has been clear movement away from Elizabeth Dole, a sign that her 'Godless Americans' ad is blowing up in her face.

Dole has run one of the worst campaigns imaginable.

Dole is getting what she deserves.

If you live in North Carolina, pile on. Crush Liddy while you're defeating McCain. You're doing a favor for the rest of America.

And, one more time, here's the response ad from Kay Hagan, who will be North Carolina's next Senator:

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Another "Yes We Can" video

The video itself is okay, but the song is great. Stacy Beyer, the singer/songwriter has a beautiful voice. Nice lyrics too.

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New report says McCain should have been expelled from Senate for Keating Five scandal

From Huff Post:

The New Republic published an explosive story Saturday evening detailing how John McCain, in all likelihood, leaked information to investigators of the Keating Five scandal that was designed to help his image at the expense of the other four Senators involved.

If the allegation is true -- and TNR makes a healthy case as to its veracity -- it would mean that McCain violated Senate rules and could have been expelled from that body.

"All five senators -- including McCain -- had testified under oath and under the U.S. penal code that the leaks did not come from their camps," Sahil Mahtani reports. "The leaks were also prohibited by rules of the Senate Ethics Committee; according to the rules of the Senate, anyone caught leaking such information could face expulsion from the body."

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McCain's Appearances on SNL

In case you haven't caught McCain on SNL yet, here are the clips and a couple of thoughts. McCain started off the show with a take off of a QVC appearance with John McCain and Tina Fey as Sarah Palin (special guest appearance by Cindy McCain):



It was funny. McCain did a good job of making fun of himself and being down in the fundraising, but right after that, a huge hit on Sarah Palin's wardrobe budget malfunction. There were some funny moments with "pork knives" and Joe the Plumber action figures, but then Tina as Sarah goes "rogue" and whips out a Palin 2012 t-shirt. Remember, none of this was a surprise to McCain - he had the script ahead of time and he went with it. Tells you a lot about the mood of the McCain & Palin camps that John McCain went there.

John and I talked about this a little bit and agreed that it's good in these moments to make fun of yourself. It shows your human side and it can even help diffuse a tough situation (aka Hillary making fun of her own laugh). But when these moments turn into making fun of someone else - particularly when that someone else is the person you've told the country is ready to be a heartbeat away from the Oval Office - it turns into something quite different.

Here McCain spent a decent chunk of time letting Tina Fey have her way with Sarah Palin. Think about this - imagine if George H. W. Bush went on SNL and let that little kid they used to use to play Dan Quayle run around. Not going to happen - ever. Yet McCain went there without any hesitation and played along.

In his second appearance, McCain went on Weekend Update to talk about his possible new "campaign strategies":



The Double Maverick is my favorite - because it sounds an awful lot like the McCain of the financial crisis.

SEN. MCCAIN – "Well, I thought I'd try a strategy called the 'Reverse Maverick.' That's where I do whatever anybody tells me. I don't ask questions – I just go with the flow. If that doesn't work, I go to the 'Double Maverick.' That's where I go totally berserker and just freak everybody out. Even the regular mavericks."

Freak everyone out it did. And it was fitting McCain ended the bit telling Meyers he was going Double Maverick.

Oh yeah, and he also hung around THROUGH THE CREDITS. Less than 2 days to go and he decides to hang out on the SNL set in New York City at 1 AM on a Saturday night? Must be taking an awful lot of those energy drinks and skipping his Ambien. Read the rest of this post...

The Mormons are Coming

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Right Wing's Favorite Pollster Says McCain Is Likely To Lose

Buh bye.

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Harry Reid: If Stevens is reelected, he will be expelled from the Senate

Wow. From Roll Call:

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) was forced into the middle of Sen. Ted Stevens’ (R-Alaska) re-election bid late Saturday night after a senior Senate Democrat endorsed Stevens and called on voters to disregard his seven-count felony conviction.

In a bluntly worded release from his office, Reid warned that Stevens would not only face an ethics investigation but also expulsion proceedings regardless of his efforts to appeal the convictions....

In a statement released by the Stevens campaign, Inouye argues that his longtime friend will be seated as a Member of the Senate next year if re-elected and that he believes the felony convictions will be overturned....

“While I respect the opinion of Senator Daniel Inouye, the reality is that a convicted felon is not going to be able to serve in the United States Senate. And as precedent shows us, Senator Stevens will face an ethics committee investigation and expulsion, regardless of his appeals process,” Reid said.

“This is not a partisan issue and it is unfortunate that Senator Stevens has used his long time friendship with Senator Inouye for partisan political gain,” he added.

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Chuck Todd: If McCain Wins All Toss-Ups He Still Loses

Tom Brokaw with Chuck Todd on Meet the Press, 11/2/08.


Brokaw: And Chuck, what about voter turnout and especially the organization of the two campaigns getting their people to the polls?

Todd: Well, we're seeing a lot of the early voting, a lot of long lines that's made folks question whether Georgia, South Carolina could end up being much closer than people thought because of this surge among voters, particularly African-Americans. And of course we've watched everything that's been happening in Florida and North Carolina this weekend, Tom.

Brokaw: And why would John McCain be spending so much time in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire in the final weekend, Chuck?

Todd: Well, it's a simple math problem that he's got. Heres our columns here. Im going to put all of the current tossup states in McCain's column and watch his number as it grows right up here. If you move all of these states over, Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, and Nevada -- you see the problem he's got. He's still at 252. 18 short. So what does that mean? If he pulls a Pennsylvania over, we see Obama goes down to 265, McCain gets his 273. Then you ask why New Hampshire? Thats the insurance policy. Nevada, a state that Obama right now has that narrow lead in, if that went to him, then McCain would need New Hampshire to get back over his 270. So it is the only path he's got left. They know this and that's why they had to figure out how to put Pennsylvania back in play. We don't know if it really is. We know he's spending a lot of time there and they had to figure out if New Hampshire, a state that's been incredibly kind to McCain's political career in the past, to see if it can resurrect him one more time. Read the rest of this post...

Every pundit on ABC 's This Week says Obama and Senate Ds wins BIG

ABC's This Week:

Mark Halperin, Time Magazine:
Electoral Vote -- 349 Obama
Senate -- 59 Democratic seats
House -- Democrats net 28 House seats

Matthew Dowd, former Republican strategist:
Electoral Vote -- 338 plus Obama
Senate -- 8 plus pick up for Democrats
House -- 17 plus pickup for Democrats

George Will, ABC News contributor:
Electoral Vote -- 378 Obama
Senate -- 8 pickups for the Democrats
House -- 21 pickups for the Democrats

Donna Brazile, former Democratic strategist:
Electoral Vote -- Obama 343
Senate - Democrats 59 plus runoff
House - Democrats pickup 29

George Stephanopoulos:
Electoral Vote -- 353 Obama
Senate -- 58, or 59 if there's a run-off in Georgia.
House -- 264 House Democrats (+28)

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New Obama ad on Cheney's endorsement of McCain

That was fast. The Obama campaign is already out with a new ad touting Dick Cheney's endorsement of McCain. Cheney was "delighted" to endorse McCain and Palin. And, the Obama campaign is delighted to spread the word about Cheney's endorsement.



This one made me laugh. There's no way McCain would ever do an ad about Dick Cheney's endorsement.

NOTE FROM JOHN: Anyone else hear the Star Wars theme about 8 seconds into the video, the very second that Cheney appears on screen? Darth Cheney anyone? Now that made ME laugh. These guys are brilliant. Read the rest of this post...

Daft the Vote

I hired Andy Cobb and friends to produce this latest get-out-the-vote video. I think it's brilliant. It's a take-off of this video, that has 25m views on YouTube, and here's a second take-off. You can watch Andy's video below and here. If you like it, vote for it, favorite it and send it to some friends via this link.



And here's the lyrics:

Seems like lately weve been lazy
Seems like lately weve been slow
Seems like lately its got crazy
Seems like weve lost a step, you know?

USA been moving backwards
USA things dont look so good
USA looks on her ass
Would we change it if we could?

I wish there was someplace to go
To change around the way things go
Get up
Stand up

Raise your game
Above the norm
This is our time
To transform
Stand up
Stand up
Get up stand up

We are better we are stronger smarter get together get up do more
The world is watching get together get up do more
Stronger smarter faster better lose the temper end the war
We are many we are stronger we can change it to the core
If you're ready we can stand up stand up get up we can say no more
Stronger smarter better faster use the booth that's what it's for
Time. For. Change.

Write it on you to remember
Put on the ink and let it linger
Flex your muscle this November
Give the GOP the finger. Read the rest of this post...

Sunday Talk Shows Open Thread

Well, it's the last Sunday before the elections -- two days left. Guess who never made an appearance on the Sunday shows? That would be Sarah Palin. Although, she did make time for Sarkozy, didn't she?

Lots of surrogates today, including the top dogs from the campaigns. (Programming note: Don't believe anything Rick Davis says about "internal polls.") And, it would be a Sunday without an appearance by McCain's head cheerleader, Lindsey Graham.

Also, we've got the chairs of both Senate campaign committees: Schumer and Ensign. That should be fun -- for Chuck, not for Ensign.

Here's the lineup:

ABC's "This Week" — David Axelrod, campaign adviser for Barack Obama; Rick Davis, campaign manager for John McCain.

___

CBS' "Face the Nation" — Axelrod; Sens. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and John Ensign, R-Nev.

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NBC's "Meet the Press" — Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass.; former Sen. Fred Thompson, R-Tenn.

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CNN's "Late Edition" — Sens. Bob Casey, D-Pa., and Arlen Specter, R-Pa.; Govs. Tim Kaine, D-Va., Mark Sanford, R-S.C., Tim Pawlenty, R-Minn., and Deval Patrick, D-Mass.

"Fox News Sunday" _ Davis; David Plouffe, campaign manager for Obama.

Two days to go. Read the rest of this post...

Palin now says the First Amendment and the entire Constitution is threatened by the media accusing her of negative campaigning

Blithering. Idiot.

And a rather dangerous blithering idiot to boot. She refuses to do interviews with any real reporters. And thinks that any criticism she receives isn't just unfair, but it actually threatens our entire Constitution. Yes, if the American media exercise their constitutional right, and their civic duty, they are actually endangering the Constitution - endangering free speech by exercising free speech - according to this blithering idiot who John McCain put a half a heartbeat away from the presidency.

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Barcelona markets and tapas

We decided to arrived early in Barcelona since I have some work in town this week. Saturday was relatively nice so we enjoyed a nice walking tour of the incredible "modernisme" architecture including the Gaudi buildings. We stumbled upon a lovely little market (since the primary market was closed due to a holiday) and picked up some goat cheese and honey. It's off to the museums today since the rain appears to be here for the day.



Joelle uses honey instead of sugar so we were thrilled to find nice honey at around half the price back home.


Nothing finishes a day quite like a nice Spanish red wine and some tapas. I am addicted to sardines and anchovies.


This place was on the way home and just called us. Great Rioja (and better than anything you find for the same price in France) and we had to try the eggplant with honey and lime. It sounded too different *not* to try. I am making this when I get home.
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JPMorgan temporarily stops foreclsures

Are they being nice or just plain practical?

JPMorgan Chase the nation's largest bank and one of its biggest mortgage lenders, temporarily halted foreclosures Friday and offered to renegotiate a swathe of mortgages.

The global credit crisis, which began with subprime mortgages, increasingly appears to be affecting a wider range of consumer loans and, according to a report published by First American CoreLogic Friday, nearly one in five U.S. mortgage borrowers now owes more on the loan than their home is worth.

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America's "national treasure" Studs Terkel died on Friday

What a fantastic person and one of my favorite authors. Obama was right when he called him a "national treasure." As our economy has crashed I've often thought about his classic Depression-era stories in Hard Times: An Oral History of the Great Depression. Terkel wrote about all Americans, not just the richest but all Americans, rich and poor.

Studs Terkel, the resolutely liberal broadcaster and writer whose work gave voice to the experiences of ordinary Americans, has died aged 96.

Terkel had suffered from ill-health for a number of years, but perked up in 2005 after open heart surgery – the oldest person to undergo such a procedure. Yet two weeks ago he suffered a fall at home. He had survived previous tumbles, joking after one: "I was walking downstairs carrying a drink in one hand and a book in the other. Don't try that after 90." This time, however, there was to be no revival, and he died peacefully at home on Friday. By his bedside was a copy of his latest book – PS: Further Thoughts From a Lifetime of Listening, due out next month – at least the fourth he had produced in his nineties.

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We just hit $50,000 in donations for No on 8!

Thank you thank you thank you thank you.

Joe, Rob and I want to thank all of you for donating, time and again. This is really great. And it's looking like we may finally be coming from behind, and may have even moved ahead of the anti-gay bigots trying to revoke the marriages of thousands of gay couples in California. Seriously, this is really great what you guys did. We all appreciate it.

Oh, and even though we reached out goal of $50k, you can still click the thermometer and give me, if you want ;-) Read the rest of this post...

Global recession forces massive factory closing in China

Darn. And those spouting off about the decoupling theory all sounded so clever. Who ever could imagine that when the West goes into recession, it would impact China? It sounded so incredibly reasonable that rich buyers, full of money and credit could disappear and be replaced by workers averaging around $1000 per year in income. Gosh, it's just such a shock.

In the past year, chill winds have blown through the Pearl River Delta. Sixty-seven thousand small firms collapsed in the first half of 2008, many in these manufacturing heartlands, says the national economic planning body. Toy firms have been particularly badly hit, by safety scares and product recalls. Textile firms, with wafer-thin margins, are also reeling. Next came tighter credit for many foreign-owned firms, like Hong Kong's Smart Union. And then, in the past two months, a sharp drop in US and European consumer demand.

A local trade association predicts that by late January, Dongguan and its neighbours Shenzhen and Guangzhou will lose 9,000 of their 45,000 factories.

"Many factories are looking at completely empty order books," warned Stephen Green, head of China research at Standard Chartered, who believes the export sector may even shrink next year. Green believes China will see 7.9% growth in 2009 - well below the double digit figures of the past five years.

That may sound enviable to western countries facing recession, but with the working age population still growing, China needs to grow by at least 8% to maintain its employment rate. The fall-out will be concentrated in provinces such as Guangdong.

"The social impact of this is going to be huge. The problems are getting bigger and bigger," said Wooyeal Paik, researching Dongguan's industry and migrant workforce at the University of California at Los Angeles.

"Disgruntled workers left jobless will complain more ... You will see demonstrations and picketing. And probably there's a risk of violence against bosses - especially foreigners."

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My friend David got married. And next week, Californians may revoke it

My friend David Jefferson just got married, to another man, and he wrote an article about the entire experience in Newsweek. David is a great guy, one of those friends you rarely see, but you know you would a lot if you didn't live 4,000 miles away from each other. It's a moving piece, please read it. Read the rest of this post...