Get the early bird rate for Netroots Nation by August 19th

If you register for next year's Netroots Nation progressive blog conference by August 19, 2011, you can get the special early bird registration price of $195. It really is a great conference, and honestly, I enjoy it just for the chance to meet so many great people (even though the panels are good too). So if you're planning on going, there's no reason not to sign up now. You can register here. Read the rest of this post...

Olbermann: "The four great hypocrisies of the debt deal"

Keith Olbermann's Special Comment on the current Debt Deal mess:



For those who want something to read (though the whole thing is quotable), those hypocrisies are:

1. The select committee (a "third house of Congress") that forces $1.5 trillion in cuts without assigning responsibility to the actual Congress.

2. The super-adherents to the Constitution want the stupidest amendment to the Constitution ever: the balanced budget amendment.

Per Keith, that amendment would repeat the Hoover experiment, since the economy during the Great Depression "turns out to be comprised of a bunch of rich people who will sit on their money no matter if the country starves."

3. The trigger for cuts if the Super-Congress can't agree won't make cuts come evenly from defense or non-defense.

4. There's an evident agreement to not add revenues, ever. "The rich are indemnified again."

And finally: "Where is the outrage to come from? From you."

In other words, you're the answer you were waiting for — or so I hear.

GP Read the rest of this post...

Americans for Prosperity Wisconsin is sending out absentee ballots to Dems, with late return dates

Just what you'd expect from the hyper-moral: permission from Jesus to cheat. From Politico:

Americans for Prosperity is sending absentee ballots to Democrats in at least two Wisconsin state Senate recall districts with instructions to return the paperwork after the election date.

The fliers, obtained by POLITICO, ask solidly Democratic voters to return ballots for the Aug. 9 election to the city clerk "before Aug. 11."

A Democrat on the ground in Wisconsin said the fliers were discovered to be hitting doors in District 2 and District 10 over the weekend.

Money wins, right? Just like it should:

The absentee trickery comes just as AFP has purchased $150,000 in ad time in Green Bay, Milwaukee and Madison to boost GOP candidates.

And I'm sure there's more where that came from.

Our more populist appeal is above. Thanks!

GP Read the rest of this post...

Jon Stewart to Obama re debt deal: "You’re not pinning this turd on us"

Jon Stewart does an amazing job explaining the recent debt ceiling battle.

Read the rest of this post...

GOP debt ceiling shenanigans cost us $1.7bn

We should be cutting that money from all budget items going to R states.

As Congress and the President have stumbled ever closer to the deadline for default -- Tuesday according to the Treasury Department -- interest rates on short-term government paper have jumped.

Shenanigans have consequences. Read the rest of this post...

CNN poll: People are not happy about this new debt deal

Republicans, Democrats and Independents all hate it. The only possibly saving grace is that they disapprove of the GOP's handling of the bill the most, then Dems in Congress, and then the President. But all three have a majority disapproval rating in terms of how they handled this agreement.  And the President's disapproval rating among liberals is at an all-time low, which shouldn't surprise. Read the rest of this post...

Stocks plunge as Wall Street realizes debt deal will hurt the economy

I don't know whether to laugh or punch someone.  Now, after they helped push us into this absurd deficit deal, that's going to hurt economic growth and kill jobs, Wall Street has suddenly realized that economic growth and jobs are actually more critical than the deficit.

Oh, and why are they particularly worried about the economy going south?  BECAUSE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE DEFICIT DEAL.  Again, priceless. They'll be lucky if the market turns around in the next half hour. Not so lucky, it ends up. Tthere are clearly jitters about both the economy and this deal.  From The Street:

Stocks were trading at session lows Tuesday afternoon with major U.S. equity indexes losing more than 1% as market jitters about the health of the economy took precedent over the passage of legislation to raise the debt ceiling.

President Barack Obama signed the last-minute compromise into law Tuesday afternoon, averting what could have been a disastrous U.S. default, but signs that U.S. consumers are reining in spending reignited fears that the recovery is losing steam. Uncertainty stemming from the European debt crisis was also adding to growth concerns.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down by 185 points, or 1.5%, at 11,948. The S&P 500 was 24 points lower, or 1.8%, at 1264, and the Nasdaq was off by 53 points, or 2%, at 2691.

The debt deal itself is also stoking some of the nervousness about the likelihood of a double-dip recession since the bill requires a deep pullback in government spending at a time when economic data is pointing to an increasingly sluggish economy.

No one could have predicted that. Oh wait, we all did. Repeatedly.  (More on the impact of the debt deal on the economy here - the tune of a potential 1.5% point drop in GDP next year, which would be disastrous.) Read the rest of this post...

The peril of pivoting to jobs

(NOTE FROM JOHN: Matt Browner-Hamlin regularly writes for us on AMERICAblog Elections: The Right's Field, our sister site that covers the GOP presidential candidates for 2012, but I've asked Matt to write for us on the main AMERICAblog site as well.  Here's his first piece.)

Though it sounded like spin to keep liberals quiet at the time, there was a lot of talk prior to this deficit deal that once it was passed, the administration and Democrats on the Hill would shift towards job creation efforts and a jobs narrative.

To the extent that Politico's Mike Allen is a leading indicator that political insiders use to preview political work, it seems that the pivot to jobs is actually happening. Today's Politico Playbook has an in-depth look at how the administration and congressional Democrats plan to switch the conversation to job creation and getting the economy back on track.

Before anything else, I think it's important to say that I absolutely support the pursuit of job creation legislation. Lots of liberals who write online and lots of left-leaning institutions - from labor to MoveOn and other campaigning organizations - have been pleading for months for there to be a focus on job creation. A stronger economy built through the creation of good-quality, well-paying jobs is the cure for what ails America. It will reduce the suffering working and middle class Americans are going through now. It will keep more people in their homes. And a stronger economy driven by higher employment would dramatically increase tax receipts, reduce the deficit and at least from a purely economic standpoint, reduce the likelihood for social programs to be on the chopping block.

I just worry that there's either (a) a lack of recognition of what just happened in the deficit debate and how the "deal" will impact all other legislation that requires money to work, and (b) a continued assumption that Republicans will be reasonable and good faith negotiators. To wit:

A Senate Democratic official tells Playbook: “There is nothing stimulative or jobs-based in this final deal that got struck. That’s unfortunate, but it also gives us an opening in September that we can say, ‘We’ve met you halfway and passed a huge, historic debt-reduction measure. Now it’s time to do something for jobs. The administration has been saying for weeks, ‘Once we get off this debt-ceiling thing, we’ll be able to get back to jobs.’ In the last 24 to 48 hours, one of their selling points of this deal has been that it resolves this thing so we can get back to jobs.
...
--Dems, hoping to actually pass something, plan to emphasize tax cuts, and spending measures that have been embraced by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, giving them cross-party appeal. [Emphasis added]

Four of the seven measures Allen previews are tax cuts. If I had to put money down, I'd predict that if any jobs bill moves forward, it will consist of more than 50% tax cuts, and probably more likely, a four or five to one ratio of tax cuts to stimulative spending measures.

Two thoughts here.

First, the language from Democrats sounds disturbingly like the mindset of December 2010, where after the deal extending the Bush tax cuts it was taken on faith that the GOP would behave like grownups on the debt ceiling and not play games.   Regardless of why that analysis coming from the White House was wrong, it was devastatingly wrong.  Even if you never paid attention to how the modern Republican Party behaves prior to the last eight months, there's zero reason any person who has followed recent events should think that the Republican Party is interested in anything close to responsible governance.

There will be no GOP concessions to reciprocate for what Democrats have given during the deficit deal negotiations. Expectations to the contrary should be rejected on their face, and anyone who posits them is at best stupid and at worst lying.

Second, the fight we just had was not about the debt ceiling. It was about the deficit, and everyone (well, other than the top 2%) is going to have to swallow some pretty bitter pills as a result.   I simply don't know how the GOP is going to let through any new government spending to create jobs without at least equal cuts elsewhere.  Conservatives - and clearly we must count President Obama as one of them - have created a zero-sum game when it comes to the federal budget. The sole caveat here is that because conservatives don't actually care about the deficit, I can easily see a scenario where tax cuts will be allowed without comparable spending cuts elsewhere. But that still puts Democrats in a position of adopting failed Republican policy solutions to try to fix the economy, while simultaneously stipulating that liberal ideas are not a viable solution to our weak economy and our high unemployment.

To put it differently, by operating in such a framework, the Democratic Party is actively destroying liberalism as a valid set of ideas to be considered by the American public.

I would love to be wrong, but right now I'm not optimistic about how the next few months will play out - whether it's the supposed pivot to job creation, the budget fight, or the highway bill reauthorization (which includes the gas tax), there are ample opportunities for conservatives to grind things to a halt with deficit hysteria.

The GOP just learned that President Obama is an enthusiastic partner in this hysteria, and the Democrats on the Hill are equally willing to go along with "deficit panic." This doesn't mean that Democrats should not try to pass a stimulative jobs bill - given the anti-stimulative effect of the deficit deal it's needed now more than ever. But the chances of a good bill, that doesn't come at the continued cost of reducing other important social support programs, seem low, and will only be made lower if Democrats continue to expect conservatives to come to the table as good faith partners in job creation. Read the rest of this post...

Senate just passed debt deal: 74 - 26

The Democratic-led Senate just passed the debt ceiling bill. The vote was 74 - 26.

We'll post the roll call once it's posted. And, it's here.

Now, over to the President. I'm sure they'll be a huge signing ceremony to mark this momentous victory for the Republicans. Read the rest of this post...

Warning sign: Obama is practically tied with Rick Santorum in PA Poll

Ouch.

We're not going to be posting every single presidential poll for the next 15 months. But, when Obama is practically tied in Pennsylvania with Rick Santorum, yes, Santorum, well, something is seriously wrong. Pennsylvania is a must-win state for Democrats. From Quinnipiac:

Pennsylvania voters say 52 - 42 percent that Obama does not deserve to be reelected. Matching the president against possible Republican challengers shows:

* Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 44 percent to Obama's 42 percent;
* Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum with 43 percent to Obama's 45 percent;
* Obama leads Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann 47 - 39 percent;
* Obama tops Texas Gov. Rick Perry 45 - 39 percent.

"Any good poll is a snapshot of public opinion and this survey shows President Barack Obama at a low point just before a major announcement on the national debt limit, after a long and bitter debate," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Let's see how the public reacts to the news and whether today's results are a baseline for measuring future results, or whether they show the president is in big trouble in Pennsylvania, a key swing state."

Yes, I know Santorum is from Pennsylvania. That makes this worse. They know he's a right-wing has-been with no record of achievement.

The Obama political team figured this debt dealing and grand bargain talk was going to help the President with independents. Not so much, right now anyway. And, it sure didn't inspire his base (not that they ever worry about the base at the White House. They just call in the leaders of the DC-based advocacy groups and tell them what to think. That scene is repeated every Tuesday night at the Common Purpose meeting.

Maybe some of the group leaders should start actually start advocating and explain to Team Obama that there are serious problems. Sure, they might lose their coveted access or not get invited to a party. But, if something doesn't change soon, we might lose the White House. Read the rest of this post...

Independents care about jobs far more than the deficit

We keep being told that the Obama administration endorsed the GOP talking points on the deficit, and gave away the farm in negotiations with the Republicans on the debt ceiling, as part of a strategic play to win independents come the next election. Only problem? Independents care more about jobs, which aren't being addressed, and which will be hurt by the President's budget deal.

From TNR:

So how’s the debt deal going to go over with these different flavors of independents? Well, Democratic IINOs and pure independents both are concerned about the job situation over the deficit by a margin of two to one, according to Pew data. In fact, the only part of the “independent” pool that actually thinks the deficit is more important than the job situation are Republican IINOs, who right now give Obama a 15 percent approval rating, the same as regular Republicans. Good luck winning that group over.

But maybe pure independents only say they’re concerned with the economy when their real passion is bipartisan compromises on the debt, and so they’ll ignore the bad jobs situation and turn out in droves for Obama. That’s not likely to happen either. As John Sides has pointed out, voting preferences among pure independents are more influenced, not less, by the state of the economy.

I'll bet the Obama folks are thinking that they're moving to jobs next, so then they'll have jobs AND the deficit tackled, so all the indies will love them.

First off, good luck doing anything on jobs now that you've:
1. Decimated the budget - where you gonna get the money for a jobs bill now?
2. Added to joblessness by accepting the GOP budget deal.
3. Given up the best opportunity you had to tie jobs to "must pass" legislation, i.e., the deficit deal.

Also, what Republican in his right mind is going to permit you to pass a jobs bill when a failing economy is the best thing the Republicans have going for taking back the White House next year?   And in any case, good luck passing anything next year, a presidential and congressional election year.

A jobs bill should have been added to the myriad of hostage crises we've already been through with the GOP.  I suspect we'll get some kind of jobs package tied to the reauthorization of the Bush tax cuts, as if jobs is somehow a partisan proposal that we should have to trade for it.  Then again, when you're not very good at messaging, and do nothing to correct the problem (because you don't even think you have a problem), this is what you get - a never-ending series of increasingly painful hostage crises sugar-coated as "victories." Read the rest of this post...

Deficit deal could cut GDP by 1.5% points next year, will raise taxes on most workers, lets UE benefits expire

There's a hidden tax increase in the deficit deal, and no one is talking about it. The President and Congress agreed to leave the extension of the payroll tax holiday, and the extension of unemployment benefits, out of the deal.  According to a top economist at JP Morgan, dropping the extensions, in addition to the cuts already in the deal, means a 1.5% point hit to economic growth next year.

Obama and congressional Democrats say they will fight to extend the payroll tax cuts and unemployment insurance. The measures provided $150 billion of economic stimulus in 2011. Their expiration would represent a far greater drag on economic activity than the spending cuts proposed for 2012. J.P. Morgan Chase estimates that it would, in combination with cuts, trim 1.5 percentage points from economic growth next year.

Most of the analysis you're seeing on the deal is only talking about what's IN the deal, not what was left out. So everyone is saying how "no taxes were raised," and how the deal may shave "only" 0.2% points off of growth next year, which is still a lot when you're dancing on the edge of another recession:

The budget deal tries to address these concerns by keeping spending cuts relatively modest at first — about $25 billion in 2012 and $47 billion in 2013 — before making much deeper reductions in the following eight years.

But these cuts will still have an impact, trimming 0.2 percentage points from economic growth next year, according to IHS Global Insight, an economic research group. That could be significant in an economy that grew only 1.3 percent in the spring, not enough to generate many jobs.

Ironic that the only taxes raised in the deal are on workers.

The phasing out of the payroll tax holiday and the unemployment benefit extension will remove six times as much money from the economy next year as the cuts programmed into the deal itself.  That's huge.  And conveniently for Republicans, could destroy a lot of jobs right before the election.  But the administration says they're going to keep fighting for the benefits and payroll tax holiday extensions.

Right.

Assuming they actually do "fight" for it, we know from experience that they'll give up ten times as much to the Republicans in return.  So what outrageous demands will we cave on next time in order to stop the Republicans from sending the US and world economy into another Great Depression?

Is it not time for our leaders to call the Republicans out on their economic terrorism?  The Dems like to tell us that they didn't have a choice, that this is the best they could do.  That's bull.  When the other guy puts an economic gun to the head of every American, you call him out on it.  You embarrass the hell out of him.  You paint him as the extremist he has finally revealed himself to be.

What you don't do is whine about how powerless you are when you control both the US Senate and the White House.  Either you don't know to lead, or you supported the GOP proposals from the beginning and were happy to have them in the final deal.  Neither is a very good argument for being re-elected as a Democrat. Read the rest of this post...

Will Sen. Sanders withhold Unanimous Consent on the Debt Ceiling bill?

We hear from Dan Friedman of National Journal — as quoted on C-SPAN Monday evening — that there will be at least one call for Unanimous Consent in the Senate during the August 2 debt ceiling debate. (The Consent call may be late August 1.) He also said that consent will be given by all members.

How about some action instead of just words? Will Senator Sanders (or Senator Franken, or Senator Doer-Not-Talker) step up and deny Unanimous Consent each time it's requested?

There could be a whole lot of slow on that bill's last day, if that were to occur. And a whole lot of unprepared slow if it were to occur unannounced. OR, if that were announced, maybe someone could have a backup plan — say, a clean bill — ready in the wings. How's that for a plan? Sounds almost ... effective.

I think maybe we need winners at the moment; I think maybe the time for noble losers (tragic but romantic in their defeat) has just about passed. Ya think?

More on the August 2 Senate vote here.

GP Read the rest of this post...