CATO asks whether McCain's hot rhetoric is helping Al Qaeda recruit

From CATO:

Exalting terrorism - as John McCain does with his “gates of hell” talk - is precisely the wrong thing for a national leader to do. The country will be made more secure by deflating the world image of Osama bin Laden and making his movement less attractive. Our leaders mustwithdraw rhetorical power from terrorists by controlling their tongues.

Almost makes you wonder if John McCain's ambition is more important to him than America's victory. Read the rest of this post...

Evangelical leader James Dobson on McCain's adultery

Seems Dobson had some choice words only a few years ago about John McCain's adultery. I guess the latest version of the Bible must have repealed the admonitions against adultery, or else Dobson wouldn't be now wooing McCain.

"The Senator," Dobson said, "is being touted by the media as a man of principle, yet he was involved with other women while married to his first wife, and was implicated in the so-called Keating scandal with four other senators. He was eventually reprimanded by the Congress for the 'appearance of impropriety.' The Senator reportedly has a violent temper and can be extremely confrontational and profane when angry. These red flags about Senator McCain's character are reminiscent of the man who now occupies the White House."

And this is what Dobson had to say just last year, that was before Dobson apparently started going soft on adultery:

"Speaking as a private individual, I would not vote for John McCain under any circumstances," Focus on the Family founder James Dobson told the Christian radio show Jerry Johnson Live in January.

Read the rest of this post...

"Taking on the System" is available today

Congratulations to Markos on the release of his new book, Taking on the System: Rules for Radical Change in a Digital Era.

"Taking on the System" has gotten some rave reviews.
I wrote about it here. It really is a great read. You'll be entertained, you'll learn -- and you'll be inspired.

There's a book party tonight to benefit Netroots Nation. That would be one fun party to attend -- I'm sure it beats most boring D.C. book parties.

You can buy this book here or at your local book seller. Read the rest of this post...

Sounds like McCain is losing his marbles

Now John McCain, who turns 72 in a little more than a week, can't even remember what he and his campaign say day to day. No wonder the McCain campaign won't let McCain talk to the press any more. He doesn't seem quite all there any more. To wit: Today McCain is claiming that he didn't question Obama's patriotism. Really? What do you call it when you say he wants to lose a war because it will help him win an election? What do you call it when you say that Obama doesn't put his country first? When you say that Obama doesn't care about the troops? That's an attack on someone's patriotism. If we said those things about McCain, we'd hear all about how he was a tortured vet and we're attacking vets - so why when McCain says it about Obama are we supposed to shrug it off as nothing?

I'd say that McCain is lying, but as his spokeswoman explained to us the other day, John McCain is a former prisoner of war, and former prisoners of war are above reproach on everything (apparently she too is forgetting McCain's adultery and the Keating Five Scandal, among other ethical lapses). So, we'll take McCain at his word. He's not lying about his previous attacks on Obama. He simply no longer can remember anything that's happened more than a day before. Read the rest of this post...

Meet Ashwin Madia and help him get to Congress

Ashwin Madia is running for Congress in Minnesota's Third District. This is one of those districts that is truly competitive -- it's a real toss up. It's been held by a Republican Jim Ramstad (an actual GOP moderate) for years, but Madia can win. He's already secured some impressive endorsements.

Today, the Minnesota progressive blogs are holding an ActBlue fundraiser for Madia. Help them out if you can. Actually, read the post Madia wrote for The Hill today, then watch the video of Madia on MTV. After that, you'll want to give.

First, The Hill, where veteran Ashwin Madia slams Joe Lieberman:

There’s a word in Washington for a taxpayer-funded endeavor that grows without limits, busts every budget projection, and which Members of Congress are loathe to confront.

The word is Iraq.

Today, the Republican Party announced that the loudest defender of status quo policies on Iraq, Senator Joe Lieberman, will be a prominent speaker at the Republican National Convention in my home state of Minnesota. Senator Lieberman and I do have one thing in common. We’ve both changed political parties. I left the Republican Party in 2002 after it replaced “balance our budget” with “borrow and spend” and after we started a war without a plan for success; a war we did not need.

With all respect to Senator Lieberman, talking tough about Iraq is not brave. Bravery is not demonstrated through words but instead through action.

Now, the video:

Now, give. Read the rest of this post...

Josh Marshall laments the lack of independent groups -- and offers some free advice

First, the free advice from Josh:

Don't ever demand someone stop attacking you. Doesn't work. Don't do it. Sounds weak. Sounds pathetic. And a lot else.

Then this from Josh:

A friend of mine just wrote in arguing, essentially, that the McCain character narrative is unstoppable. You can change the terms of the debate. But there's no way you're going to change people's minds about McCain, warrior, tough guy, maverick, going to protect your family no matter what. My answer would be, with some people, especially a lot of them in DC but certainly elsewhere too, that's right. With others I'm not so sure. And that's why I really wish there was some independent group out there telling the full story of McCain's life prior to his POW captivity and especially after. $500 shoes. Thinks you're rich after your making $5 million a year. Has 9 or 10 houses.

It's not for everyone. But the guy's pampered. And he changes his beliefs every few years.

We had an independent group, but Obama told donors not to give them any money, and they're gone now. And unfortunately, it's very dangerous for a campaign to get this vicious in its own name. That's why you have independent groups. But we don't. Read the rest of this post...

Conservative Andrew Sullivan asks: Was Mccain really tortured?

Too bad for the McCain camp that it's a devoutly Catholic conservative writer and thinker who is asking the question. Gonna be interesting to see the McCain campaign try to demonize Andrew, and then see if they get away with it. My money is on Andrew winning that rhetorical battle.

In all the discussion of John McCain's recently recovered memory of a religious epiphany in Vietnam, one thing has been missing. The torture that was deployed against McCain emerges in all the various accounts. It involved sleep deprivation, the withholding of medical treatment, stress positions, long-time standing, and beating. Sound familiar?

According to the Bush administration's definition of torture, McCain was therefore not tortured.

Hat tip, Ablog reader Jeff. Read the rest of this post...

Obama: "We already have economic disaster from John McCain's president, George W. Bush"

I wrote a post about this speech Obama gave in Reno on Sunday when I first saw it. He had some great lines of attack tying McCain to Bush. This is the message Obama needs to deliver. Link McCain to Bush. It's just more of the same. Same Karl Rove-led campaign. Same disastrous economic policies. Obama and his surrogates need to say this same thing in every corner of America -- over and over and over:

Read the rest of this post...

Jerome on Obama's blog strategy

Jerome Armstrong of MyDD

...for the life of me, I cannot figure out why he hasn't pursued a blog outreach strategy to date. I'm not talking about a constituency relationship or blogads, but a strategic message one. One that recognizes the blogs as being more powerful in concert with what the campaign is trying to do in opposition to McCain, and coordinating the execution of that strategic message....

[W]ithout the outreach, partisan Democratic bloggers are left on their own to pursue a decentralized strategy which has largely wandered in the desert looking for an attack angle on McCain. Bloggers complain about there not being a consistent message from Obama against McCain because nothing is being coordinated from within the campaign for outreach purposes.

Not like Hillary had much of a blog outreach strategy either. Then again, she lost. Read the rest of this post...

McCain agrees that we won't get Bin Laden "if we don't reenact the draft"

Apparently, Bush and Cheney didn't get Bin Laden because we don't have a draft. But, McCain will get him.

Anyone of draft age should watch this video. Anyone with kids who are draft age -- or approaching draft age -- should watch this video. As John wrote last night, McCain's instinct is to go to war. Today, McCain exposed how he'll have the forces to do it. The draft is part of his equation. Watch the entire video:



If we were Republicans, we would have only posted this excerpt:

AUDIENCE MEMBER: If we don't reenact the draft I don't think we will have anyone to chase Bin Laden to the gates of hell.

JOHN MCCAIN: Ma'am let me say that I don't disagree with anything you said and thank you and I am grateful for your support of all of our veterans.

Then, it would be a t.v. ad. Read the rest of this post...

Did McCain's hot temper help create the Georgia crisis?

From David Igantius

McCain likes zingers. We've all seen that mischievous look -- just before he shot a quip or sarcastic one-liner at GOP rivals such as former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. It's one of his appealing qualities, but in this case it worries me. Zingers don't make good foreign policy. They embolden friends and provoke adversaries -- and in the Georgia crisis, that has proved to be a deadly combination.

In the aftermath of the Georgia war, many commentators have argued that the mercurial Saakashvili walked into a trap by launching an attack Aug. 7 on the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali -- providing the pretext for the brutal Russian response. That conclusion emerges from a meticulous reconstruction by The Post's Peter Finn.

So what encouraged Saakashvili to make his reckless gamble? Partly it was the ambivalent policy of the Bush administration, which told the Georgian leader one month that "We always fight for our friends" (as Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said in July in Tbilisi about Georgia's bid to join NATO) and the next month cautioned restraint. And partly it was cheerleading from the pro-Georgia lobby, in which McCain has been one of the loudest voices.

Let's put aside the fact that McCain's top foreign policy adviser, Randy Scheunemann, has in fact been a lobbyist for Georgia. In his own feisty comments in recent months, McCain encouraged Georgians to believe America would back them up in a crisis. That expectation was naive, and it was wrong to encourage it. It was especially wrong to give a volatile leader such as Saakashvili what he evidently imagined was an American blank check.

In the post-Cold War world, small countries often get into fights they can't finish -- hoping that big powers will come to their rescue.

Read the rest of this post...

UPDATED: Tubbs Jones in Critical Condition Plain Dealer reports Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-OH) died today from a brain aneurysm

UPDATE: Rep. Tubbs Jones is not dead. At a live press conference from the hospital, live on CNN, the doctor for Tubbs Jones reported the congresswoman has "very limited brain function. She remains in critical condition at present in our intensive care unit." CNN changed the "Breaking News" chyron from "Hospital News Conference on Death of Rep. Tubbs Jones" to "Hospital News Conference on Health of Rep. Tubbs Jones."

_________________________

Sad news via Cleveland Plain Dealer:

U.S. Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones, the first African-American woman to represent Ohio in Congress, has died after suffering a brain aneurysm, said sources familiar with the situation.

She was removed from life support at 12:19 p.m. at Huron Road Hospital, the sources said.

Tubbs Jones, 58, served as a Cuyahoga County judge and prosecutor before succeeding U.S. Rep. Louis Stokes. She has served five terms in Congress and is expected to easily win her sixth in November.

Read the rest of this post...

Here we go again

AP has a huge new story out about the Democrats' "patriotism problem." And AP is correct. Our party lets the Republicans impugn our patriotism with, well, impunity, and then we wonder why every election, and on practically every issue, we have to deal with attacks on our patriotism. Why? Because they work. (The public is already seeing McCain as more patriotic than Obama.) Why do they work? Because we don't fight back. The appropriate response to someone questioning your patriotism isn't to say "you're wrong" or "I object!" The appropriate response is to punch the guy in the face, rhetorically or otherwise. Wesley Clark didn't even question John McCain's patriotism - he simply questioned McCain's qualifications for the presidency. McCain responded by punching Wesley Clark in the face, then dragged him around tied to the back of a truck for a week for good measure (and no one in the party came to Clark's defense, big surprise there). McCain didn't just say "stop it," McCain made sure that neither Clark nor anyone else would dare question his commander in chief credentials ever again.

What has our side done to bloody McCain for questioning our patriotism? What have we ever done to fight back when the Republicans question our patriotism, be it in the Congress or at the ballot box? How many times do we have to write about this Achilles Heel before Dems realize it ain't going away? We deal with this issue every election, and on every issue, because Democrats either don't have the balls to fight back, or they don't have the brains. Either way, it's pathetic, and make us looks weak (and unpatriotic). And it's happening again. And again. And again. Read the rest of this post...

Lieberman to give speech at GOP convention

As AP noted yesterday, Lieberman's a prick. Come the next Congress, when Barack Obama is president, Joe Lieberman will be kicked out of the Democratic caucus. And if he's not kicked out, there will be a civil war in the Democratic party until he is. The man is nothing more than a vindictive shell of his former self (of course, we did all make him lose his nomination, so at least Lieberman will have to live with that the rest of his life, being kicked out of his own party). He's no longer trustworthy, and he's now stabbing our party and our candidate in the back. He shouldn't just have his committee chairmanship taken away from him, he should be pushed into the minority party where he can be happy and powerless with his fellow Republicans.

Democrats need to turn on Lieberman now, because in a couple of weeks there will be never-ending stories about how moderate and mainstream Lieberman is, and how that's the reason nobody likes him in our party any more, that's the reason he's speaking at the convention. No, the man is a traitor to his own party, as he's now shown. He also seems to have a penchant for war in the Middle East. And I'm not sure the American people know that - the degree to which Lieberman is responsible for our current, and possibly our future, wars in the region. He and McCain go hand in hand. Read the rest of this post...

Dunkin Donuts Independents and Dinty Moore Dads - love The Onion

When polling goes too far. A great take by The Onion:


Latest Poll Reveals 430 New Demographics That Will Decide Election Read the rest of this post...

Limbaugh Calls Possibility Of Pro-Choice McCain Running Mate ‘Crap,’ Likens It To ‘Committing Suicide'

From ThinkProgress:

Today on his radio show, conservative talker Rush Limbaugh addressed the recently raised possibility that Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) could choose a pro-choice running mate. Limbaugh argued forcefully against the prospect, calling it “crap” and likening it to “committing suicide.” If McCain picks a pro-choice running mate, Limbaugh said, he “will have effectively destroyed the Republican party.“

Read the rest of this post...

Why people should be worried about the polls

(NOTE FROM JOHN: Rob's post is long. Please take 5 minutes and read it. It's quite possibly the best thing we've ever published in four years of running this blog. I've been wanting Rob to write for us (again) for a long while (he wrote a bit at the beginning, then got a real job). Rob used to be, arguably, the Republicans' top Internet political strategist until he defected around the year 2000. Rob's encyclopedic knowledge of politics, of dates and figures, of polls and data and electoral history, is downright scary. Read this post, then share it with someone. Thanks, JOHN)

Last week Pew Research released their latest poll on the Presidential election. It has the horse race question at 46-43 for Obama - within margin of error. At this point in 2004, Kerry led Bush 47-45, in 1992 Clinton led Bush 57-37.

The Pew poll shows the following:

• Three weeks ago Obama had a statistically significant 8 point lead. Today he's got a 3 point lead with a 2.5% margin of error. The race is effectively a tie.
• McCain has solidified his base and now gets 87% of Republicans to Obama's 82% of Democrats. There has been no shift in Clinton supporters since June - 72% will vote for Obama, 18% of McCain with 10% undecided. Only 6% of Republican primary voters who supported other candidates indicate they will vote for Obama.
• McCain is now over 50% with white voters, 51% overall, leads Obama in all groups other than college graduates where they are tied, and McCain is now at 60% with white voters in the south, a 7 point move in three weeks. These numbers all mirror the same vote breakdown in 2000 and 2004. The only group that has flipped since 2004 is 18-29 where Obama leads with 51% - a 13 point shift since 2000.
• McCain's support among evangelical voters has moved up 7 points since June.
• In a series of either/or trait questions, voters believe McCain is personally qualified to be president (54-27), shows good judgment in a crisis, (51-36), and is willing to take a stand even if it's unpopular (49-38). Obama leads on having new ideas (69-17), connects well with people (57-30), and, interestingly, shares my values (47-39).
• When supporters of a candidate were asked to find something they like most about the opponent, 53% of McCain supporters said nothing at all, compared to 34% of Obama supporters. 37% of Obama supporters said McCain's personal abilities and experiences were what they liked most about McCain, only 11% of McCain supporters said the same about Obama.
• More disturbingly for Obama, when asked what they liked most about the candidates, 40% noted McCain's personal abilities and experience. The number one answer on Obama? Nothing - 28% - a volunteered answer, not an option provided by the pollster but recorded only if volunteered by the voter. Obama's position on economic issues was second at 24%.
• When asked what troubled them most about the candidates, voters said for McCain it was his position on economic issues (26%) and his position on foreign policy issues (25%). For Obama, it was his personal abilities and experience (33%)
• Obama has a higher level of strong support than McCain. 27% of voters strongly support Obama to 17% for McCain.
• One in three voters may change their mind between now and election day - 46% of independent voters indicate they may switch.
• Voters are paying closer attention to the election. Comparing the same timeframe, August, attention is at levels not seen since 1992.

While some here think everything is going just fine, and that Obama has a secret plan lying in wait, I ask you to think back a year ago. Imagine if someone had told you that the most charismatic Democratic speaker in a decade would be in a dead-heat with a Republican has-been corrupt waffler - you would have laughed in their face. After eight years of George Bush? No way, people are fed up - that'll never happen.

Well, that's the reality today. This race is a dead heat and is up for grabs both in the national polls as well as in key states like Ohio, Florida, Missouri, etc. Face reality folks - something isn't working.

While some say ignore the polls at this stage, you can't really do that. To be sure, some polls are worth looking at and some are worth ignoring. How do you tell the difference?

Let's talk about polling methodology. There are two different ways to poll - registered voters and likely voters. At this stage, I ignore likely voter polls. Why? Well after a primary full of polling errors, I'm skeptical that anyone at this stage in the game can really determine who a likely voter is. (Read more about likely voter methodology on my prior post.)

Having said that, we do have a more accurate indicator - the registered voter poll. In order to be able to vote in an election, you have to be registered. Registered voters are the total universe of possible voters in November. Now Obama's campaign will tell you that they are registering tons of new voters. That's great, but those people are already showing up in registered voter polls. One of the first questions asked by the pollster is usually "are you registered to vote?" - all the people Obama has registered will answer that question yes and will be included in the current poll results.

Now some have raised the question of whether mobile-phone only households - generally younger and possibly new voters - are being missed by the polls. Sorry to burst the bubble folks, but the good polling firms have already addressed this question and resolved it. Polling panels are now comprised of phone interviews (including mobile phones) as well as online polling. The Pew poll specifically addresses this issue on page 11 of this PDF file - page 10 of the report. A well executed registered voter poll at this point in the race is a relevant barometer of where the country is today.

So then what does the Pew poll say about where we are and what to do moving ahead? What is says is that the demographic breakdown of the 2008 vote looks an awful lot like 2004, and 2000. You can draw from that, and other public polls, that the same states in play in 2004 will likely be in play in 2008, and that the races in those states are highly competitive. The Pew poll says that voters are concerned about McCain's stand on the economy and on foreign policy (i.e., Iraq), but that they aren't yet sold on Barack Obama and question his experience. They like Obama's positions on the economy, but they aren't there yet.

Not all is lost folks, Obama has time and money to make a shift. But if you thought that somehow this year was going to be different - something would change and somehow the American electorate would look completely different this year than any other year, the numbers today just don't show that. This isn't a transformative election, it's another hardscrabble, claw out each and every vote, election. To win that kind of election, you need to fight for every vote and fight hard. That's why you hear the concern you hear from Josh Marshall, John, Joe, etc. And it's backed up by years of experience watching the Republicans make Democrats look weak - Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry. That line of attack works when not countered and we were defeated. None of us want that in 2008. Read the rest of this post...

McCain to right wingers: I'm anti-choice, (but my VP might not be)

Talk about poking a stick in the eye of the theocrats. John McCain was touting his strong anti-choice views on Saturday night at Pastor Warren's megachurch:

I have a 25-year pro-life record in the Congress, in the Senate. And as president of the United States, I will be a pro-life president. And this presidency will have pro-life policies. That's my commitment. That's my commitment to you.

That commitment, however, may not extend to his vice president, according to Paul Bedard at US News:

The McCain campaign is not shooting down reports to Washington Whispers that senior aides are polling top donors, delegates, and even radio talk show hosts for their reaction to a pro-choice running mate. "We are in constant contact with our donors and supporters and it wouldn't be at all surprising if people were soliciting their thoughts about any aspect of the campaign," said a McCainiac on background. Our sources suggest that the questions were a way to float the possibility that former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge was in the running for the No. 2 slot, though Republican Party officials said later that Ridge was not on the veep list. Others believe that the pro-choice question is an indication that McCain is seriously considering independent Sen. Joe Lieberman, a close friend and former Democratic vice presidential candidate.

This prospect has set off a firestorm among the hard-core right wingers. According to Think Progress, the possibility of a pro-choice vice presidential candidate has Limbaugh in a panic. The Moonie Times is trying to pop the Lieberman bubble. And, the Republican National Committee had to run to GOP TV to get the word out that a pro-choice v.p. was not going to happen:

Several sources at the RNC told FOX News that in the last 36 hours, senior McCain advisers and aides have told RNC officials that McCain “got the message” last week that choosing a running mate who supports abortion rights would not be helpful.

Note to RNC: McCain doesn't get messages from anyone. Also, here's a question: Is McCain also vehemently opposed to birth control? Read the rest of this post...

Wednesday Morning Open Thread

Good morning.

I didn't get my text message, which means we're in for another day of frenzied speculation about Obama's v.p. pick. We do know that the ticket will be appearing at the Old State Capitol in Springfield, Illinois on Saturday. That's where Obama launched his then improbable campaign on February 10, 2007.

Start threading the news. Read the rest of this post...