Obama beating Romney in key state, Virginia

Quinnipiac:

For the first time in this election cycle, President Barack Obama inches ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the leading Republican candidate, 47 - 43 percent in Virginia, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Romney has a commanding lead among likely Republican primary voters in the state's no-Newt Gingrich presidential primary.

In the Obama-Romney matchup, independent voters favor the president 45 - 41 percent, compared to a 41 - 41 percent tie in December. A gender gap is opening up as women shift to the president, backing him 52 - 40 percent, compared to a 43 - 45 percent split in December. Men back Romney 47 - 43 percent, compared to 43 - 42 percent in December.

"For the first time since Quinnipiac University began polling Virginia voters on the race, President Barack Obama holds a razor-thin lead over Gov. Mitt Romney," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The keys are the president's improved standing among independent voters and women in the Old Dominion."

"The Obama bump could be driven by the perception that the economy is improving. And, the nasty GOP primary fight is not helping Romney, exposing swing voters to lots of negative attacks on him from within his own party," Brown added.

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Video: Spiderman Strikes Back! (wonderful 70s kitsch)

It's a real movie from 1979.

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CPAC to host white nationalist leader

Mighty white of them.

Republican presidential candidates Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, along with several Republican senators and congressmen, are set to appear at the American Conservative Union’s Conservative Political Action Conference, but the GOP brass aren’t the only ones set to be at CPAC. As we’ve previously reported, CPAC will play host to anti-gay groups such as the Family Research Council, the birther leader of WorldNetDaily, and the Apartheid-nostalgic Youth for Western Civilization.

But that isn’t all.

Following speeches from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Rep. Michele Bachmann, CPAC is hosting the panel “The Failure of Multiculturalism: How the pursuit of diversity is weakening the American Identity” with Peter Brimelow, the founder and head of VDARE.com.

VDARE is a White Nationalist website, run by Brimelow, which frequently publishes the works of anti-Semitic and racist writers and is named after Virginia Dare, who is believed to be the first child of English parents born in the Americas. Brimelow, an immigrant from Great Britain, expresses his fear of the loss of America’s white majority, blames non-white immigrants for social and economic problems and urges the Republican Party to give up on minority voters and focus on winning the white vote. He also said that a New York City subway is the same as an Immigration and Naturalization Service waiting room, “an underworld that is not just teeming but also almost entirely colored.”

VDARE has published the work of people like Robert Weissberg, who says that black and Hispanic students are responsible for problems in the American education system, Marcus Epstein, the Youth for Western Civilization leader who karate-chopped a black woman after calling her a “n****r” (he later pled guilty to assault), and J. Philippe Rushton of the eugenicist Pioneer Fund.

The Southern Poverty Law Center lists VDARE as a White Nationalist hate group and notes that “VDARE.com’s archives contain articles like ‘Freedom vs. Diversity,’ ‘Abolishing America,’ ‘Anarcho-Tyranny — Where Multiculturalism Leads’ and ‘Why Immigrants Kill,’” compiled quotes from other VDARE writers that call the U.S. an exclusively white nation and denounce Jews for “weakening America’s historic White majority”.

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Robert Reich: Romney, GOP unaware of crumbling middle class

When you are making more money on interest alone in a single year than most Americans will ever make in a lifetime, of course the issue won't resonate. Asking Romney or anyone int he GOP (and quite a few Democrats as well) to understand the problem is asking too much. Romney has led a life of privilege that only the political elite can enjoy so it's not possible to appreciate the challenges that the rest of the country has been experiencing. There are plenty of Democrats that deserve blame for contributing to the problem (radical tax cuts, expensive wars, de-regulation, etc) but it's been the Republicans who have led the charge. Robert Reich:

The real scandal, as I’ve said before, is America’s safety nets are too small and shot through with holes. Only 40 percent of the unemployed qualify for unemployment benefits, for example, because they weren’t working full time or long enough on a single job before they were let go. The unemployment system doesn’t recognize how many Americans work part time on several jobs, and move from job to job. Romney’s budget proposals would shred safety nets even more. According to an analysis by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, his plan would throw 10 million low-income people off the benefit rolls for food stamps or cut benefits by thousands of dollars a year, or some combination. “These cuts would primarily affect very low-income families with children, seniors and people with disabilities,” the Center concludes. At the same time, Romney’s tax plan would boost the incomes of America’s most wealthy citizens, who are already taking home an almost unprecedented share of that nation’s total income. Romney wants to permanently extend George W. Bush’s tax cuts, reduce corporate income tax rates, and eliminate the estate tax. These tax cuts would increase the incomes of people earning more than a million dollars a year by an average of $295,874 annually, according to the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center.

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More calls for Greece to default

Nobody honestly believes Greece can pay off the previous loans and few believe the restructured loans will make any difference. The political class has kept the charade going so that the bankers get paid, and for (euro) ego reasons, but it's completely unfair to the people of Greece to continue down this path. Each time the discussions come about, the situation is always the same.

Greece can't pay this mountain of debt. Everyone should move on and get this over with. CNBC:

“This bailout is certainly not the answer for anyone, for Greece, for the euro zone, for the world,” Yanis Varoufakis, Professor of Economics at University of Athens, told CNBC. “Greece should default instantly, immediately, without any talk of leaving the euro.” “Here we have a typical bankruptcy problem which we’ve had for two years now,” Varoufakis said. According to him, Greece’s first bailout back in May 2010 was not the illiquidity problem leaders perceived and they should stop “throwing good money after bad,” ballooning Greece’s deficit and “destroying the economy” thereby leaving it incapable creating income to repay its debt. “Why can’t we (Greece) default within the euro zone?” Varoufakis said, noting that the country has already been frozen out of the money markets.

NOTE FROM JOHN: What's the old joke: "If I owe you ten thousand dollars I have a problem. If I owe you a million dollars, you have a problem." Read the rest of this post...

CNN suspends Roland Martin over anti-gay tweets

Kudos to CNN. Read the rest of this post...

Hannity: Obama didn’t really want to catch Osama

Fox is the propaganda arm of the Republican party. And the Republican party learned long ago that it's at its best when it simply lies. Where was Sean Hannity's hero George Bush during the eight years he didn't catch bin Laden? Hannity is a hack and a has-been. He used to get by on his good looks, and his penchant for talking over others, but that'll only get you so far. If all you got going for is your boyish face and some good hair, at some point you end up no longer being a boy and the public moves on. And then, like his buddy Glenn Beck, you have to start saying more and more outrageous things to hold the interest of the unwashed GOP masses. So you end up saying stuff like this. (H/t Zeke Miller at Buzzfeed.)

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Should a Catholic hospital be permitted to turn away Mitt Romney because’s he’s Mormon?

On the subject of the Obama administration requiring health insurance plans to cover contraceptives, I have a post up over at AMERICAblog Gay looking at what else the Catholic Church and their evangelical brethren are demanding in the name of "religious liberty." Here's a snippet:

They're not just a church when they're the only hospital in town. They're not just a church when they're using taxpayer funds to discriminate against taxpayers.

But this is the future the Catholic Church, and their evangelical/Mormon buddies, are wishing on the rest of America. They're increasingly involved in more and more non-proselytizing ventures - hell, they're not permitted to proselytize with government money - yet when it's revealed that they're discriminating against their own employees or the public at large, suddenly the operating room becomes the divine liturgy. (Which is a neat trick: Maybe Catholics should drop their insurance cards in the offering plate next Sunday, since apparently it's all the same thing.)

So what's next? If Catholic hospitals are permitted to discriminate against their non-Catholic employees in health care, then I assume they should be able to discriminate in who they hire. And who they serve. After all, would you really want a Catholic hospital to have to serve homosexuals? Or adulterers? Or Baptists? Think that's an absurd analogy, think again. The religious extremists have been arguing for years that pharmacists should be permitted to refuse to serve any customer that violates their conscience. Generally, they mean giving out birth control. But what about AIDS drugs? Should Catholic and Evangelical pharmacists be permitted to fill AIDS cocktail prescriptions only for the "innocent victims" of AIDS? Forget about the gays and the druggies. Only children who were infected via their moms are permitted to get their drugs, and even then, it's unclear how we should treat those Mormon children since Catholics and Evangelicals might consider them members of a cult. And don't even get started on Muslims. They can move back to Mecca if they want antibiotics.

And how about a Jehovah's Witness pharmacist.  Can they refuse to sell any prescription drugs at all?

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Murdoch reaches settlements in phone hacking scandal

So far Murdoch's News Corp has remained safe in the US, but there has been a steady stream of updates as more information has been uncovered. The police raid of the News Corp offices in the UK the other week may still reveal more unpleasant surprises for Murdoch. It's a tainted organization and if the tables were turned, we all know how the Murdoch empire would handle any other organization. For some reason, the other news organizations in the US are too kind and letting this slip. Even worse, we have leading politicians who are not shying away from doing interviews with what is a rogue organization. The Guardian:

Simon Hughes and Steve Coogan were among a group of 15 phone-hacking claims involving 19 people to be settled in the high court this morning, as the Murdoch-owned publisher of the News of the World paid out more money to resolve cases ahead of trials that in some cases had been due to begin next week. News Group Newspapers reached agreement with the Liberal Democrat MP, the Alan Partridge star and others including singer Pete Doherty, jockey Kieran Fallon, and football agent Sky Andrew. Alastair Campbell, Tony Blair's one time spin doctor, and former England footballer Paul Gascoigne also settled today – as did Sheila Henry, the mother of 7/7 victim Christian Small. Both Hughes and Coogan were present in the high court, and Hugh Tomlinson QC, representing the phone-hacking victims, said a total of 10 statements of apology will be read out in open court this morning.

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New York Mag: Dodd-Frank has changed Wall Street, reduced bonus pools, ended proprietary trading at many banks

You get two-for-one with this post. One part is a "how to read the media" piece. The other part is — hmm, banking may be changing after all.

The subject of both reflections is a long, well-researched article on Wall Street in New York magazine, "The End of Wall Street As They Knew It".

First, the "how to read the media" part. The piece is so well researched that its covert purpose is not readily discerned. It's a whitewash, of course. The title statement is true, but only partly so. And the author does a great many other things well (which adds to the confusion).

What is whitewashing exactly? Painting something in the wrong color, usually more favorably. Komen for the Cure is being whitewashed as we speak — washed in the lily-white blood of chagrin and forgiveness. Even Democrat Nancy Pelosi (whose ground cover is that, as a woman, she speaks for women and not just for Democrats who want Komen's money-and-lobbying machine to survive) has told us to go home, all is now well in CancerLand.

Please read this Wall Street piece to the end (if you're inclined that way) and ask yourself, in how many places does the following underlying message appear? "They've learned their lesson — see, they're suffering too — time to lay off the bankers."

I could go on and on about this, quote chapter and verse; the instances are legion (as my bibble reminds me). But I'll spare you. I guarantee though, if you seek, you will find them (instances, I mean, of whitewash).

But second, the author, despite his "please think well of bankers," lets drop some doozies (my emphasis and reparagraphing throughout).

■ Bonus are being severely cut back, at least for the hoi and the poloi of the banking world.

[A]mong the many dislocations Wall Street has suffered since 2008, none may have been more destabilizing than the headlines that flashed across Bloomberg terminals on the afternoon of January 17, when news leaked that Morgan Stanley would cap cash bonuses at just $125,000. A week later, Bank of America announced that it would be cutting the cash portion of its bonuses by 75 percent, giving the rest in stock.

All across Wall Street, compensation is crashing. Goldman Sachs, coming off a lackluster fourth quarter, slashed compensation by 21 percent. Banks have always had occasional bad years, but the sense on Wall Street is that this bad year is different.

If you don't have money, you can't give it away.

■ This changes the culture of medium-flyer bank employees, the grunts.

Read the following carefully; ignore the writer's implicit boo-hoo (I know, but try) and the implicit negative effect on the upscale end of New York's economy:

For New York’s bankers and traders, the new math suddenly reordered their assumptions about their place in a post-crash city. “After tax, that’s like, what, $75,000?” an investment banker at a rival firm said as he contemplated Morgan Stanley’s decision. He ran the numbers, modeling the implications. “I’m not married and I take the subway and I watch what I spend very carefully. But my girlfriend likes to eat good food. It all adds up really quick. A taxi here, another taxi there. I just bought an apartment, so now I have a big old mortgage bill.”

That bonus could easily have been in the hundreds of thousands, if not more, in previous years. Lifestyle-changing changes are real changes. This could be a sea change for the banking industry.

■ Republican Teaparty-ish voters share many positions with the Occupy Movement:

Even as bonuses have withered, Wall Street as a political issue is gaining force. Bankers are aware that populism has a foothold, even in the Republican Party, and that these forces are liable to accelerate the process already taking place. “There’s a real sense the world is changing,” says a private-­equity executive with deep ties to the GOP. “People are becoming aware there’s real anger out there. It’s not just some kids camping out in some park. The Romney attacks caught everyone by surprise. We have prepared for this to come from the Democrats in the fall, but not now. You could run an entire campaign if you’re Barack Obama with ads using nothing but Republicans saying things about finance that you’d never hear two months ago. It’s an amazing thing.”

■ Big banks are losing revenue and profits in a way that looks lasting:

Since July 2010, Bank of America nosed down 42 percent, Morgan Stanley fell 25 percent, Goldman fell 21 percent, and Citigroup fell 16—in a period when the Dow rose 25 percent.

■ The Volker Rule, which forbids proprietary trading for some banks, seems to be having an effect:

Months before the Volcker Rule is set to kick in, star traders began to leave in droves. In March 2010, Pierre-Henri Flamand, the London-based global head of Goldman’s Principal Strategies group, quit to start his own hedge fund. A few months later, in September, Goldman revealed it was shuttering its entire desk. In October, the nine traders at Goldman’s U.S.-based desk, run by Bob Howard, decamped en masse for KKR, the private-equity firm. Around the same time, Morgan Sze, one of the highest-paid traders in Goldman history, who was said to have earned a bonus of $100 million in 2006, announced he was leaving to launch his own $1 billion–plus hedge fund.

■ Same for the Durbin amendment, which attacked some banking fees:

The rule passed and overnight wiped out $6.6 billion in revenues banks had made on debit cards. In response, Bank of America announced it would charge consumers $5 a month for their debit cards. After being savaged by outraged customers, BofA announced this past November that it would drop the plan.

And the boo-hoo, dutifully recorded by the author, on that one:

“The Durbin rule was the worst rule,” says an executive at one of the major banks. “Debit cards had nothing to do with the crisis. The fact is, we give free stuff to our customers. Now we’re going to have to be the bad guy.”

We're crying real tears.

■ Hedge funds, to whom some bankers have fled, aren't doing great either:

Just a couple of years ago, traders faced with hardships like this would simply have jumped over to a hedge fund, and made more money with less hassle. ... But recently, hedge funds have fared just as poorly as the banks. .. In 1990, there were 610 hedge funds in the world. In 2000, there were 3,873; in 2011, there were 9,553, according to a report by Hedge Fund Research. All these funds are chasing fewer surefire trades. ... The rising tide of the real-estate and credit markets lifted all boats.

But nowadays, while some hedge funds will still make ridiculous money, just as many will lose. One Leon Cooperman fund was down 12 percent over the first three quarters of last year, while a Bill Ackman fund was off 16 percent—not the kind of returns investors pay the hedge-fund premium for. ... And as the world becomes deleveraged, money has been pouring out. In October 2011 alone, hedge funds saw $9 billion go out the door.

It does seem to be a changed world for these cretins.

The conclusion of the piece supports my original contention.

But for now, the strictures that are holding the banks back now are tighter than any since the thirties. And those laws kept banking reliably risk-free and dull until the deregulation mania of the eighties and nineties unleashed finance. The system is being designed so that Wall Street grows only as fast as Main Street. “The bubble can’t happen again,” Jack Bogle told me.

Etc. It looks like a bit of a whitewash, don't you think?

In addition to that, the article makes no mention of too-big-to-fail. No mention of the implicit promise of more bailouts at your personal middle-class-taxes expense. No admission of crimes committed; not a hint of fraud performed; no mention (well, barely) of jail time for the jailable. Etc.

Other than that, it may still be true that banking has been irrevocably changed, at least for now. Here's hoping.

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Santorum wins Missouri, Minnesota; once again Romney has trouble with the base

Washington Post:

Rick Santorum had a breakthrough night on Tuesday, winning presidential contests in Missouri and Minnesota and making a strong showing in Colorado, all of which is expected to breathe life into his struggling campaign and slow Mitt Romney’s march to the Republican presidential nomination.

PoliticalWire has more:

With at least two wins tonight, the best news for Santorum is that he's got three weeks to raise money for Arizona and Michigan. The next best news is that it was a horrible night for Newt Gingrich.

Ari Berman adds (via twitter):

With 99 % reporting, GOP turnout in Missouri half of what it was in '08; 249,000 tonight vs 588,000 in '08 (Dem turnout 827,000 in '08)

From Zeke Miller at Buzzfeed:

Romney's lackluster performance once again proves he has trouble with the base — and Santorum's candidacy is just the manifestation of that trouble.

The people who turn out for these low-profile, non-binding affairs are the same activists who knock on doors and drive Republicans to the polls in November. And while Santorum isn't going to be the Republican nominee, he can go a long way toward souring that Republican base toward its likely nominee.

The question being asked tonight by Romney supporters and GOP officials is why can't Romney seal the deal. His campaign will have a long February if they can't come up to an answer to that question — and fast.

AP reports that, in an effort to win over the religious right, Romney switched in recent days to talk about social issues.  Didn't work.

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney shifted his focus from the economy to abortion, religious freedom and gay marriage in recent days, part of an intensified effort to win over social conservatives in states voting Tuesday.

It didn't work.

Republican Rick Santorum, a fierce and vocal opponent of abortion and gay rights, trounced the GOP front-runner in Minnesota's caucuses on Tuesday and won bragging rights for placing first in Missouri's non-binding primary. The victories exposed Romney's longtime struggles to convince cultural conservatives that he's now in line with their beliefs despite his previous support of abortion rights.

Yeah, imagine that. People who don't even think Catholics are Christians actually have a problem with a liberal Mormon who once claimed to be better on gay rights than Ted Kennedy.  And this is surprising because?  If Romney could flip to suddenly being a conservative, he could flip back to being the Mormon Kennedy if he's sworn in in 11 months.  Kind of like a guy who cheats on his wife and marries his mistress and then cheats on her and marries the next mistress.  At some point, if you still believe the guy can be trusted, then you deserve what you get.

More from Roger Simon at Politico:

@politicoroger: I realize it's a tough night for him, but Romney seemed WAY down in his speech. Never let them see how much it hurts, Mitt.

And the most unfortunate line of the evening goes to David Gergen:

@GregMitch: Best line of night remains Gergen: "Santorum is ripening."

He's referrring of course to this Santorum. Read the rest of this post...

Anonymous hacks Syrian dictator Assad’s email - staff’s password was 12345 (seriously)

According to what 'anonymous' said to Haretz a least.

Hundreds of emails from Syrian President Bashar Assad's office were leaked on Monday after an attack by the hacker group Anonymous. One of the email files, which Haaretz has obtained, was a document preparing Assad for his December 2011 interview with ABC's Barbara Walters.

The attack took place overnight Sunday and the target was the mail server of the Syrian Ministry of Presidential Affairs. Some 78 inboxes of Assad's aides and advisers were hacked and the password that some used was "12345". Among those whose email was exposed were the Minister of Presidential Affairs Mansour Fadlallah Azzam and Assad's media adviser, Bouthaina Shaaban.

It's the sort of password an idiot would have on their luggage. Read the rest of this post...