The conventional wisdom before tonight was that even with an Ohio win Hillary loses

Look at what the pundits were saying before this evening. They were saying that even if she wins Ohio, Hillary is toast when it comes to the number of delegates.

Charlie Cook via Chuck Todd:

NBC political analyst Charlie Cook writes in his CongressDaily column, “[W]inning by slight percentages in Texas and Ohio aren’t real wins for Clinton. A ‘win’ would be anything that significantly closes the gap in delegates. Symbolic victories mean nothing at this point, other than encouraging her to plow ahead in this campaign, amassing a greater campaign debt than already exists and delaying her ability to get on with the next phase of her life.”

Jonathan Alter used the following assumption when determining earlier today that Hillary is toast:

Let's assume Hillary beats expectations and wins Ohio tonight 55-45, Rhode Island 55-45, Texas, 53-47 and (this is highly improbable), ties in Vermont, 50-50....

So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February. Hillary would then have to convince the uncommitted superdelegates to reverse the will of the people. Even coming off a big Hillary winning streak, few if any superdelegates will be inclined to do so. For politicians to upend what the voters have decided might be a tad, well, suicidal.

Alter gave Hillary Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, and a tie in Vermont (which she didn't get). And even then, he determined that she can't win enough delegates.

And NBC's Chuck Todd said earlier that it's possible that Hillary wins the popular vote in Ohio and still loses the delegates in Ohio.

It's understandable that the media loves a good fight, and the whole Hillary vs Obama thing is a lot of fun, if you're not a Democrat. But anyone acting like Hillary's victory in Ohio, if she actually won, somehow means now she can win, that's simply factually untrue. The media knew this before 11pm tonight, so why are some of them suddenly acting like Ohio changes everything, when it changes nothing in terms of Hillary winning enough delegates to catch up to Obama. Read the rest of this post...

Ohio may not be decided until 430am - though NBC just projected Hillary as the winner

Well, we'll see. Though Hillary was always expected to win Ohio by a sizable margin. That doesn't mean she didn't win the state, but it does mean that this isn't some great turnaround. It means that the polls of the past 14 months were right. But it still doesn't change the math - she doesn't have enough delegates to catch up to Obama. Let us remind our friends in the media one more time: Winning a state that you were expected to win does not an upset make.

UPDATE 11:08 PM: NBC's Andrea Mitchell just reported that Hillary Clinton's campaign "came back from the dead here in Ohio. They had a big, big lead. They blew that lead." Um, Andrea, Hillary always had a lead in Ohio. She never lost that lead. Stop making things up.


(Source: Pollster.com)

Everyone is reporting that...

Cuyahoga County officials are predicting they won't have all ballots counted there until about 4:30 a.m. Wednesday, the delay due in part "to a judge's order to keep 21 precincts open until 9 p.m. and because of bad weather."

I asked Joe why it mattered that Cuyahoga won't come in until the morning, and he said that this county includes Cleveland, has a huge population, something on the order of 400,000 votes, and it should go for Obama. So, even though Hillary is ahead in the vote that's already come in, it's very hard to call the state without knowing how Cuyahoga goes (and there are several other large counties that haven't reported in either). And again, since we're talking delegates here, a simple majority isn't really a win. Such a huge area matters for the total delegate count. That means the media may not be able to call Ohio until the early morning. Read the rest of this post...

Howard Fineman heard from Clinton official "Ohio is not enough"

Just saw Newsweek's incredibly painful and pompous punidt Howard Fineman on MSNBC. He reported on his recent emails and conversations with the Clinton campaign noting"the lack of champagne corks" and the "grim determination." Top campaign official told him "That Ohio is not enough." The word conveyed to Fineman was that if it's just Ohio tonight, meaning Hillary only wins there, she may want to go forward, but some people in the campaign won't want to.

According to Fineman, there is no real sense of elation even if she wins Ohio and Texas. Just that they've avoided a hanging.

Not a lot of confidence. Weird. Read the rest of this post...

Rhode Island for Clinton

Her losing streak ends. Clinton wins Rhode Island according to NBC. Read the rest of this post...

Obama's organizing in Texas

From a friend in CA:

A buddy of mine in Austin is caucusing, texting me details. He says the Obama GOTV effort is mammoth. At his caucus the Clinton folks are embarrassed and angry at the support they've been getting. And they're getting creamed.

Read the rest of this post...

McCain gets GOP nomination

UPDATE: Democratic party chair Howard Dean weighs in:

"John McCain is out of touch with the issues facing Americans each day. Instead of offering solutions to the high cost of health care, help for the middle class or ideas to create jobs, McCain offers 100 years in Iraq and more of the same Bush budgets that have heaped debt onto our children and damaged our economy. Instead of ending the influence of lobbyists in Washington, he's hired them to run his campaign. The closer voters look at the real McCain record, the more they will realize he cannot be trusted to deliver the change America wants."

McCain will be endorsed tomorrow by George Bush at the White House tomorrow according to MSNBC.

If that's what McCain wants, so be it. Read the rest of this post...

Texas and Rhode Island too close to call for Dems.

Democratic primaries are too close to call in Texas.

Early votes are being counted in Texas. And don't forget, we still have the caucuses in TX to come.

Rhode Island was supposed to be a clean win for Clinton. Still may be, but it is too close right now. Read the rest of this post...

It's the delegates, stupid

Markos notes something that CNN, but not MSNBC, is bothering to mention:

CNN, at least, is talking about "the math". If they focus on the math and Clinton fails to make significant delegate gains today, it'll be a blow to the Clintons' "momentum" strategy. (A strategy, btw, that still fails to account for simple arithmetic.)

Markos is right. It doesn't matter if the media perceives Hillary getting "momentum" tonight if she doesn't get enough delegates to catch up with Obama. This is a 50-state election. She lost too many other states by too much of a margin to catch up with Obama's delegate total at this late date. But the media almost seems to feel that they're being unfair by admitting this, so they don't. They talk about Hillary possibly getting her mojo back, but don't bother telling you that it doesn't matter. If she can't get the delegates, she loses. And according to every analysis out there, she can't get them. Read the rest of this post...

Ohio too close to call

Polls just closed in Ohio. According to NBC, the Democratic race is too close to call.

McCain did win Ohio, by the way.

Just a month ago, Clinton was up by 20 points. Just two weeks ago, she was ahead by 10 points. Read the rest of this post...

Obama wins Vermont. McCain, too.

Ohio is next up, at 7:30 Eastern (in 15 minutes).

NBC just called it. Not unexpected, although we're led to believe the margin will be substantial.

It's all about the delegates. Obama could pick up either 9 or 10 delegates to Clinton's 5 or 6. And, every single one matters.

McCain gets all 17 of the GOP delegates.

I'm watching MSNBC. It's just after 7 PM and I'm already over David Gregory. He doesn't seem to get the delegate math. This is going to be a painful night.

Actually, none of the commentators do. It doesn't really matter what happens if Hillary isn't able to get enough delegates to win. It just doesn't matter. The math will stop her from getting the nomination. So all of this talk about whether or not she'll win Texas or Ohio is moot. It's the delegates, stupid. But the media does love a horse race, and the fact that Hillary basically can't win isn't fun. Read the rest of this post...

Leave America ALONE!!!

While we wait for the polls in VT to close in 15 minutes, here's some entertainment.

Read the rest of this post...

Exit polls are a-leaking...

From my man Jim:

For the first set, Obama is up by 2 percent in Ohio, Hillary is up by 2 percent in Texas, Hillary is up by 3 percent in Rhode Island and Obama is up by a 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.

The second set is similarly close - Hillary up by 2 percent in Ohio, the two Democrats tied in Texas, Obama ahead by 2 percent in Rhode Island and a similar 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.

Read the rest of this post...

Hillary running fake news reports on radio in Ohio to trick voters

From Newsday.com:

Latest Clinton tactic: Fake news reports

The Clinton campaign's latest tactic in Ohio is, apparently, a radio ad that tries to make listeners think it's a news report until the very end.

Stuff like this, if it succeeds in fooling voters, fairly seriously pollutes the information environment by trying to steal the credibility of the news media and use it to present a biased, exaggerated set of facts. Why can't we rely on people who want to be president to not engage in the kind of creepy behavior that you teach your kids not to do?

Read the rest of this post...

Hillary Huckabee

From Markos:

First off is the developing CW, from the very astute Charlie Cook:

NBC political analyst Charlie Cook writes in his CongressDaily column, "[W]inning by slight percentages in Texas and Ohio aren’t real wins for Clinton. A ‘win’ would be anything that significantly closes the gap in delegates. Symbolic victories mean nothing at this point, other than encouraging her to plow ahead in this campaign, amassing a greater campaign debt than already exists and delaying her ability to get on with the next phase of her life."...

The Clinton campaign will obviously do what she can to work the refs, but it's hard to overcome the math:

So -- under these most rosy of scenarios -- since March 4, she'll have earned 520 delegates to Barack Obama's 461, having reduced his earned delegate total by about 80 -- or -- by about 60 percent -- but he'll still have a lead of approximately 100 delegates in total... and be that much closer to 2025.

That "most rosy of scenarios" is well beyond the realm of possibilities (like Clinton winning 80 percent of the vote in Puerto Rico). And by the end of tonight, Obama will likely have extended his lead in pledged delegates or, at worst, lost a handful -- keeping him well ahead in the count....

Expect Clinton to get the early media spin victory, but soon expect the hammer to fall -- 50 supers, a gazillion raised in February, and high-profile converts like Richardson will create intense pressure for Clinton to call it a day....

[R]ealistically, Hillary Clinton would be little more than our version of Mike Huckabee, nominally in the race, but everyone else having moved on.

Read the rest of this post...

Conservative Canadian government facing charge it "deliberately meddled" in Democratic primary

This brouhaha over who said what to whom about NAFTA, pushed aggressively by the Clinton campaign, has taken on high level international dimensions. Canadian dirty tricks?:

Prime Minister Stephen Harper fended off allegations Monday that his government deliberately meddled in the U.S. primaries by trying to undermine Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama’s stand on the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Despite Harper’s attempts at damage control, the controversy spilled over into the politics of both countries Monday. Hillary Clinton, facing a final defeat at Obama’s hands, sought to exploit the controversy on the eve of key primaries in Texas and Ohio.

We've been down the path of Canada meddling in our internal affairs once before -- and were led out of it by Kyle's mother (Two Warnings: 1) It's South Park so NSFW -- and 2) if you get this song in your head, you'll be singing it all night):
Read the rest of this post...

Newsweek: "Forget tonight. Hillary could win 16 straight and still lose."

From Jonathan Alter at Newsweek:

Hillary Clinton may be poised for a big night tonight, with wins in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island. Clinton aides say this will be the beginning of her comeback against Barack Obama. There's only one problem with this analysis: they can't count.

I'm no good at math either, but with the help of Slate’s Delegate Calculator I've scoped out the rest of the primaries, and even if you assume huge Hillary wins from here on out, the numbers don't look good for Clinton. In order to show how deep a hole she's in, I've given her the benefit of the doubt every week for the rest of the primaries....

[Suppose] [s]he has enjoyed a string of 16 victories in a row over three months.

So at the end of regulation, Hillary's the nominee, right? Actually, this much-too-generous scenario (which doesn't even account for Texas's weird "pri-caucus" system, which favors Obama in delegate selection) still leaves the pledged-delegate score at 1,634 for Obama to 1,576 for Clinton. That's a 58-delegate lead.

Let's say the Democratic National Committee schedules do-overs in Florida and (heavily African-American) Michigan. Hillary wins big yet again. But the chances of her netting 56 delegates out of those two states would require two more huge margins. (Unfortunately the Slate calculator isn't helping me here.)

So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February. Hillary would then have to convince the uncommitted superdelegates to reverse the will of the people. Even coming off a big Hillary winning streak, few if any superdelegates will be inclined to do so. For politicians to upend what the voters have decided might be a tad, well, suicidal....

The Clintonites can spin to their heart's content about how Obama can't carry any large states besides Illinois. How he can't close the deal. How they've got the Big Mo now.

Tell it to Slate's Delegate Calculator.

Read the rest of this post...

Mark Penn: Don't blame me. I just give advice.

This is the Clinton's top adviser Mark Penn in March 2008:

As the campaign faces a make-or-break moment, some high-level officials are trying to play down their role in the campaign. Penn said in an e-mail over the weekend that he had "no direct authority in the campaign," describing himself as merely "an outside message advisor with no campaign staff reporting to me."

"I have had no say or involvement in four key areas -- the financial budget and resource allocation, political or organizational sides. Those were the responsibility of Patti Solis Doyle, Harold Ickes and Mike Henry, and they met separately on all matters relating to those areas."

Compare that to the Mark Penn of April 2007, which can be found after the break. You see a much different role in the Clinton campaign for Penn.

This was from a Washington Post series on "the gurus" of the top campaigns:

If Clinton seems cautious, it may be because Penn has made caution a science, repeatedly testing issues to determine which ones are safe and widely agreed upon (he was part of the team that encouraged Clinton's husband to run on the issue of school uniforms in 1996).

If Clinton sounds middle-of-the-road, it may be because Penn is a longtime pollster for the centrist Democratic Leadership Council whose clients have included Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.).

If Clinton resembles a Washington insider with close ties to the party's biggest donors, it may be because her lead strategist is a wealthy chief executive who heads a giant public relations firm, where he personally hones Microsoft's image in Washington.

And if some opponents see Clinton as arrogant, her campaign a coronation rather than a grass-roots movement, it may be because of the numbers wizard guiding her campaign and the PowerPoint presentations he likes to give on the inevitability of his candidate.

Yet Penn also has everything that Clinton would want in a senior consultant: undisputed brilliance and experience, according to even his enemies; clear opinions, with data to back them up; unwavering loyalty; and a relentless focus on the endgame: winning the general election. And Clinton clearly adores him. She describes Penn in her autobiography, "Living History," as brilliant, intense, shrewd and insightful.

Don't blame Penn for anything. He's too "brilliant, intense, shrewd and insightful" -- and very well paid -- to be wrong. Read the rest of this post...

GOP Senator compares McCain to the stages of acceptance of death

They like him, they really like him!

"I sort of liken it to a grieving process. You come to acceptance," said U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, ticking off the conventionally accepted stages of mourning.

Read the rest of this post...

Why is Obama's skin blacker than normal in Hillary's new attack ad?

(click image to see larger version)

DailyKos has the original scoop. I went and got the original footage from the Clinton ad, and then compared it to 3 different video clips of the same debate from 3 different sources. I did this so as to take into account any editing, or quality issues, that might have accounted for Obama having darker skin in any particular video. None of the 3 video sources I found showed Obama nearly as black as the Hillary ad does. Click the image above to see a larger version. Look at his lips. Look at his eyebrows. Look at how the red MSNBC background has turned more purple. Clearly the image was darkened. The question is "why."

It just keeps happening again and again and again. The Clintons keeps doing things, saying things, that sound awfully racist. And we're to believe that this, the - what? 8th, 10th time? - this has happened is again just a coincidence. The first half a dozen times you launch seemingly racist attacks on your black opponent, maybe - maybe - we can write it off as "boy you're really dumb not to get it." But having a seemingly-racist attack from the Clinton folks on Obama every single week, after a while, you don't get to play the "I had no idea!" card anymore. After that many times, you're race-baiting. You're using racism to win. And you're destroying your legacy and your husband's. Enough already. Read the rest of this post...

Tom Brokaw: Obama has 50 superdelegates waiting to endorse

From DKos:

Tom Brokaw just announced in front of a stunned Terry McAuliffe that Obama has 50 superdelegates waiting to endorse Obama.

Watch the video here

NBC News superreporter cites a source "very close to the Obama campaign" who says the additional superdelegates are "ready to go public before too long."

If Clinton wins all 4 states today she only gains 20 or so delegates. Obama's already got a 100+ delegate lead. Add 50 supers to that and it nullifies her win and puts him further ahead and pretty much out of reach even if she wins out the rest of the primaries (which she has no chance of doing).

If some of those supers were already committed to Clinton and switch (which 6 have already) it's even worse for her.

Read the rest of this post...

Limbaugh happy that Hillary more willing than GOP to "bloody up" Obama

From CNN:

Limbaugh has been actively urging his Texas listeners to cross over and vote for Clinton in that state's open primary Tuesday, arguing it helps the Republicans if the Democratic race remains unsettled for weeks to come.

"I want Hillary to stay in this…this is too good a soap opera," Limbaugh told fellow conservative talk-show host Laura Ingraham on Fox News Friday. He reiterated the comments on his Monday show and replayed the exchange with Ingram.

He also said Clinton is more willing than the Republican National Committee and John McCain's campaign to criticize Barack Obama.

"We need Barack Obama bloodied up politically. It's obvious that the Republicans are not going to do it, they don't have the stomach for it," Limbaugh continued. "As you probably know we're getting all kinds of memos from the RNC saying we're not going to be critical. Mark McKinnon of McCain's campaign said he'll quit if they get critical over Obama. This is the presidency of the United States we're talking about. I want our party to win I want the Democrats to lose.”

Read the rest of this post...

Hillary campaign call in Ohio reportedly calls Obama "Osama bin Laden"

I don't even need to add commentary any more. Read the rest of this post...

Another DC lobbyist takes key role in the campaign of the alleged anti-lobbyist candidate, John McCain

Kinda hard to be anti-lobbyist when all the top people in positions of power on the campaign are, in fact, lobbyists:

Presumptive Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain has engaged a leading GOP lobbyist to coordinate his message and travel schedule with congressional Republicans — the most concrete sign yet that the biggest battleground in the 2008 presidential race may not be Pennsylvania or Ohio or Florida’s I-4 corridor but rather the floor of the United States Senate.

John Green, a founding partner of what is now Ogilvy Government Relations, will soon take a leave of absence from that firm to work as a full-time liaison between McCain’s presidential campaign and Republicans in the House and the Senate, according to GOP aides on Capitol Hill and McCain surrogates downtown. Green, a Mississippi native, has strong ties in the Senate after his years of work for former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-Miss.), a vocal McCain supporter who left Congress late last year to set up his own lobbying shop.

Green is part of a small cadre of lobbyists who have met regularly to help build support for McCain on Capitol Hill. The group, which includes fellow Ogilvy partner Wayne Berman, has been helping the senator secure congressional endorsements in recent weeks to ensure he solidifies his status as the GOP front-runner.

Just because McCain says he is anti-lobbyist and is going to stamp out corruption and waste doesn't mean it's true. Remember, he's following the Bush playbook. Just say anything. Facts and reality don't matter. Plus, if McCain says the same thing over and over, all his pals in the media will believe him. I mean, his bus is called the "Straight Talk Express." Read the rest of this post...

Tuesday Morning Open Thread

Good morning.

NBC is calling today "Junior Super Tuesday." Ugh.

Let me get something straight. For the past couple weeks, Hillary Clinton has been attacking Obama because he gives amazing speeches. But, for the past couple days, Clinton has been saying Obama's career is based on one speech he gave in 2002. Mark Penn must have worked overtime to come up with that attack. The 2002 speech to which she refers is the one where Obama opposed the Iraq war, of course. Clinton supported the Iraq war, of course.

On the GOP side, John McCain, who also supported the Iraq war -- and still does, should go over the top tonight in terms of delegates. Given his volatile temper, it's just a matter of time before McCain blows his top for the world to see.

Have at it. Should be an interesting day. Read the rest of this post...

Citigroup to fire another 30,000 or more

While predictable, when is there going to be a serious discussion about former CEO Prince and his massive payout? Surely there was something in his contract about all of that being based on real business, no? If not, the lawyers need to be first on the list to be fired. The worst of it is that the same board members who brought him in and sent him packing with a healthy chunk of change won't ever say anything. It's just a cozy little network where friends just don't call out friends no matter how bad their record may be. How's that for an efficient "free market" system?

The corporate world consistently shuns any and all responsibility for their actions. Do not forget this when Paulson's friends start talking in more detail about their bailout that is not to be called a bailout. With more bad news still to come, they're going to want to move quickly enough though the American people have already crossed the tipping point. Polling is heavily against any bailout so brace yourself for how they spin it and rename it. It's coming, that much is for sure. Read the rest of this post...

HSBC may have overcharged customers $600million

Yesterday the bank reported impressive profits for 2007 despite writing down $17 billion of bad (subprime) debt. Today, the story is a bit different though all too common. Bank fees have been receiving special attention in the UK lately and now the issue is starting to be raised in the US as well. The banks overcharge because they can so easily get away with it. When the money was flowing, no one paid much attention but now that times are tightening up, $600 million just might be enough to make governments move. Perhaps. Read the rest of this post...