In Arkansas, Lincoln and Halter will face off again in a runoff

According to the AP, there will be a runoff in the Arkansas Democratic Senate primary. Incumbent Blanche Lincoln needed 50% to avoid a run-off. And, she didn't get it. Not even close. Both Lincoln and Halter are hovering around 43%.

So, Blanche Lincoln will run against Bill Halter on June 8.

It's a bad sign for an incumbent to end up in a runoff. Read the rest of this post...

Democrat Mark Critz won PA-12, a seat the GOP expected to pick up

This is a huge win for the Democrats tonight.

Mark Critz, the Democrat, won the seat long held by John Murtha. Republicans had considered this a prime pick up opportunity. But, the GOPers lost.

Yep, this was the race that was going to show how John Boehner was on his way to becoming Speaker. Oops.

Critz isn't exactly a progressive. But, given how cocky the Republicans have been about their electoral prospects, this is a sweet win.

UPDATE: More good news. This race may have put the kibosh on Newt Gingrich's presidential prospects. Newtie was the star at a fundraiser for Burns and some of the attendees wanted him to run for President:

Greeted by many in the crowd who want him to run for president in 2012, Gingrich half-jokingly said he would consider doing that "if you get (Burns) elected."

Well, Burns didn't get elected. Read the rest of this post...

Sestak Won in PA, defeating Specter

Joe Sestak defeated Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania's Democratic primary for Senate tonight. This is a major upset -- and a defeat for President Obama, the DSCC and Organizing for America. They're going to have to work hard to make sure Sestak wins in November against Pat Toomey.

And, this ad really was a game-changer. It captured Specter perfectly.
Read the rest of this post...

Election update: KY and PA Dem primaries

UPDATE @ 10:33 Specter loses to Sestak.

UPDATE @ 10:02 PM: In PA, Sestak now leads 52.3% - 47.7% with 46.8% of the vote reporting.

In KY, Conway has been declared the winner of the Democratic primary. He'll be facing teabagger Rand Paul in November.
__________
UPDATE @ 9:49 PM: In Pennsylvania, Sestak has moved into the lead 50.3% - 49.7%.
_________
In Kentucky, with 92% of the vote counted, Attorney General Jack Conway is leading Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo by a margin of 44.8% - 42.8%. Looks like Conway pull this out. He'd be the better candidate.

In Pennsylvania, with 35.6% of the vote counted, Specter is leading Sestak by a 50% - 50%.

Politico.com has the results here. Read the rest of this post...

Teabagger Rand Paul wins Kentucky GOP primary defeating Mitch McConnell's candidate

A major loss for Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in his home state tonight. McConnell's hand-picked candidate for the GOP nomination, Trey Grayson, lost to Teabagger Rand Paul. So says CNN.

Paul is celebrating at "the spacious rolling hills of the Bowling Green County Club, where he is a member." I didn't think teabaggers were Country Club Republicans, but, apparently, they are. Or Rand Paul is anyway.

UPDATE: One very key fact from tonight: The Democratic turnout in Kentucky is much higher than the GOP vote. And, this is supposed to be a year when Republicans, especially teabaggers, are extremely motivated. Read the rest of this post...

Will big business find a way to get out of paying oil spill damages?

Thanks to Scott Horton, we learn that Transocean's managers, who moved their corporate HQ from Houston to the Caymans to Zug, have come up with a scheme to make oil spill damages almost impossible to recover. According to the AP:

After the chief executive of Transocean Ltd., owner of the Deepwater Horizon rig, held a closed-door meeting with shareholders Friday, the company issued a terse statement [ . . . ] saying it would distribute some $1 billion in dividend to shareholders. [emphasis mine]

This looks like fraudulent conveyance, but the money will be gone. Horton concludes:

It’s not surprising that the management of Transocean would take such a step. [ . . . ] But it is surprising that Congress and the executive would allow them to get away with it. An alert creditor would take action to block Transocean’s efforts to move its assets out of reach. The question is whether the United States is capable of acting like an alert creditor.

In the Randian world, of course, the shareholders are the deserving, not some stinky fishermen. Besides, those guys are poor. In the Randian world, this is justice. Hmm.

GP Read the rest of this post...

Gingrich says religious leaders who support health care reform are socialists

Um, I think he just described Jesus.

GINGRICH: I don’t think being the leader of an organized group necessarily means that you’re going to — you will or won’t understand the critique that I just outlined. … A lot of religious leaders who come out of basically a socialist background. They don’t create wealth. They don’t create jobs. They in fact redistribute wealth and so from their perspective this is just one more opportunity to redistribute — this is sort of compulsory charity, what we used to call taxes.

Read the rest of this post...

This just in... Bacon is bad for you

I think we already knew this.

Eating two rashers of bacon or a sausage every day can increase your risk of heart disease by nearly half, scientists claim. Their study found meat that has been cured, salted or processed in another way can also push up the likelihood of developing diabetes. It linked the salts and chemical preservatives used on processed meat to ill health if the products are eaten regularly.

The research, from the Harvard School of Public Health, adds to previous investigations which found links between processed meats and cancers of the bowel and breast. It is hard to imagine that consuming large quantities of fatty meats that have been pumped up with a ton of sodium might somehow prove perilous, but Science does not always bring you good news.

Read the rest of this post...

European Commission: China's firewall a WTO issue

Oh no. Someone is standing up to the bullies in Beijing. The Independent:

China's internet "firewall" is a trade barrier and needs to be tackled within the framework of the World Trade Organization, Neelie Kroes, vice-president of the European Commission, told reporters in Shanghai today.

Dutch-born Kroes, who is also in charge of Europe's digital agenda, said the firewall was a trade barrier as long as it blocked communication for internet users, preventing the free flow of information.

"It is one of those issues that needs to be tackled within the WTO," said Kroes, who served as European Commissioner for competition until 2009.

Kroes spoke at the China headquarters of video-sharing company Tudou, a rival of Google's internationally popular video-sharing platform YouTube that is blocked in China.

Read the rest of this post...

Wall Street earnings, predicted vs real

From Steve Benen:

Via Paul Kedrosky, here's a McKinsey chart comparing projections of corporate earnings by Wall Street analyst with the actual results. As you can see, the analysts relentlessly overestimate earnings.

Actually, what I find most interesting about this chart isn't the overestimation — though that's fascinating — but the remarkable steadiness of their earnings projections. For 25 years, with the exception of a few years starting in the late 90s, through good times and bad, consensus earnings for the S&P; 500 have been right around 12-13%. No matter what's going on in the broader economy, Wall Street always thinks earning will be at least 12% or higher. Coincidentally, I'm sure, this is also the direction of error most likely to get their clients to churn stocks.

Read the rest of this post...

White House speeding up implementation of new benefits under health care reform bill

Good. And damn smart of them to do so. While I was hardly pleased with the Democrats' performance in getting this bill passed, it does contain some provisions that will be helpful to people. The administration needs to get those rolling asap, and it seems they got the message.

President Barack Obama and his Democratic allies are using the levers of government to speed up and promote what they consider the most popular aspects of the new health care law before a highly skeptical public passes judgment in November.

Top administration officials, who meet regularly with outside special interest groups to coordinate the public relations effort, have so far focused on expediting and amplifying four key areas of the new law: expanding coverage to young adults, covering sick people with pre-existing conditions or high medical costs, providing tax breaks to small businesses and helping a select group of seniors pay for prescription drugs.

In one case, the administration moved so quickly to provide coverage to young adults under their parents’ health plan that it cut short the conventional period for the public to weigh in on the new rule.

In another, it used taxpayer money to alert small businesses that they will get a break on this year’s taxes.

Both are perfectly legal but also politically beneficial.

Yeah, I seem to remember getting a mailing about my George Bush whopping $300 tax cut, or whatever it was earlier in the decade. So spare me the tears. Read the rest of this post...

'Family Values' GOP Rep. Souder did abstinence video with his mistress

And the question on everybody's mind after watching this video: WHAT was she THINKING? Read the rest of this post...

'Sarah Palin's Alaska,' on TLC

Sarah Palin is getting a TV show on TLC about Alaska (wonder if they'll cover the rape kits). Andy Cobb and the folks at Second City have done their own promo for the show.

Read the rest of this post...

'Family Values' GOP Rep. Mark Souder to resign over affair with staffer

I don't link to FOX News very often, but sometimes it's worth it:

Eight-term Rep. Mark Souder will announce his resignation Tuesday after it came to light that he was conducting an affair with a female aide who worked in his district office, Fox News has learned.

Multiple senior House sources indicated that the extent of the affair with the 45-year-old staffer would have landed Souder before the House Ethics Committee.

Elected as a family values conservative as part of the Republican revolution in 1994, Souder survived a tough re-election challenge in 2008 and survived a contested primary two weeks ago.

Souder, as you can imagine, has long been an outspoken critic of same-sex marriage. This year, he signed an amicus brief in a case against D.C.'s new marriage law. Read the rest of this post...

Tar balls showing up on Key West beaches

They have not yet confirmed they are from the latest oil leak. As Florida resident Limbaugh said, "it's as natural as the ocean water is" so everything is surely fine. Who wouldn't want to spend their hard-earned vacation swimming with tar balls? The Florida tourist office has to be excited with the prospect of such a "natural" experience.

The U.S. Coast Guard says 20 tar balls have been found off Key West, Fla., but the agency stopped short of saying whether they came from a massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

Read the rest of this post...

Tuesday Morning Open Thread

Good morning.

It's primary day in Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Arkansas. The marquee races are Senate primaries in those three states. President Obama has a lot riding on the Pennsylvania Democratic primary where he endorsed and campaigned for Arlen Specter. He also supports Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas. Senate Minority Leader put his rep on the line in his home state. McConnell recruited Trey Grayson for the race, but he's probably going to get trounced by teabagger Rand Paul. Also, don't forget about the race to replace John Murtha in Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District. The GOPers were acting like that one was a done deal a couple weeks ago. So, expect endless discussion from the pundits about what these elections mean.

Polls close in Kentucky at 6 PM local time (Kentucky has both Eastern and Central time zones), in Pennsylvania at 8 PM (Eastern) and in Arkansas at 7:30 PM (Central).

The President is on his way to Youngstown, Ohio today to talk about the economy.

The Senate is continuing its work on the Wall Street reform bill, which should be completed later this week. Don't expect any key votes today. Several Senators are preoccupied with the elections in their home states.

Let's get it started... Read the rest of this post...

BP boasts of skimming 1,000 barrels per day from leak

As if this is somehow supposed to be impressive. Better yes, but it continues to be a daily disaster. BP is still holding firm to their 5,000 barrels per day leak though scientists strongly disagree and believe it's considerably more. As John posted last night, there are other alternative that should at least be reviewed. We need to know if blowing up the well would be any more or less of an environmental disaster, of course, but the current situation can't go on much longer. Nobody really cares how much BP loses of their oil rig investment and those are the breaks of the game. They've let us all know how much cash they're making each day so yes, they will survive if the entire well needs to be scrapped. (Nice job with the flashy quarterly report numbers guys.)

Obama needs to start focusing on what is good for the US and the environment and less about what's good for BP. At least Obama eventually realized what a bad choice his homophobic, climate change denier choice was and sent him packing.

BP has claimed its first success in stemming the flow of oil gushing into the Gulf of Mexico after almost a month of trying.

The company said that it would now be able to capture 1,000 barrels of oil a day after inserting a small tube into the end of the broken pipeline lying on the seabed.

Official estimates put the spill at 5,000 barrels of oil a day, but some scientists say the spill could be as much as 100,000 barrels daily. BP says there is no way to measure it accurately.

Read the rest of this post...

UN chooses new climate change director

The process has taken a bit longer than it should have but it's good news to have someone with experience who is ready to start. There's a lot of work to be done after the Copenhagen failure. The Guardian:

Costa Rica's Christiana Figueres is to be the new head of the UN climate convention, BBC News understands.

The UN is expected to confirm her appointment to take over from outgoing chief Yvo de Boer later in the week.

Sources close to the UN said she emerged as front-runner after an intervention from small island states.

The US-based diplomat, daughter of former Costa Rican president Jose Figueres Ferrer, has taken part in UN climate negotiations since 1995.

Read the rest of this post...