Wash Post: "May take decades" for Iraqi security forces to be ready to take over for US troops

DECADES.

The top U.S. military commander in Iraq, Gen. George W. Casey Jr., predicted last week that Iraqi security forces would be able to take control of the country in 12 to 18 months. But several days spent with American units training the Iraqi police illustrated why those soldiers on the ground believe it may take decades longer than Casey's assessment....

"I wouldn't let half of them feed my dog," 1st Lt. Floyd D. Estes Jr., a former head of the police transition team, said of the Iraqi police. "I just don't trust them."....

[Jon Moore, the deputy team chief] estimated it would take 30 to 40 years before the Iraqi police could function properly, perhaps longer if the militia infiltration and corruption continue to increase. His colleagues nodded.

"It's very, very slow-moving," Estes said.

"No," said Sgt. 1st Class William T. King Jr., another member of the team. "It's moving in reverse."

I'm sorry, did we say 18 months? We meant 40 years.

Had enough? Read the rest of this post...

Back from CNN

I just got back from CNN, doing Larry King Live. Thanks for all the comments, I just read the thread below that Joe started. It didn't feel that great when I was there, so I appreciate hearing that it went well from your perspective. It was very strange, having 5 people on the panel, and most of us in different cities. I find that a very confusing way to have a conversation. I also was hoping to talk more about specific races, like Kleeb in Nebraska, Derby in Nevada, Paccione in Colorado - races that show how badly things are going for the Republicans even in states and regions that are/were solidly Republican. Oh well.

I did have a fun time in the Green Room (the room they have you wait in before you go on). James Carville was there, so had a long talk with him about the races. The man is just plain funny, and smart as hell. He came in laughing and asked if I'd seen him on Wolf's show a minute before, right before 8pm. I told him no, sorry, I was getting a tour of the studio. Apparently Carville told Wolf "I came on here to talk about my children's book"!

I'm working on the video of the segment, maybe will get it up later tonight or tomorrow. Read the rest of this post...

Cook Report: "There is no ebb in the wave"

NOTE FROM JOHN: Cook says Paccione and Kleeb are both gaining in the polls.

The Cook Political Report released a slew of new ratings changes today. All of them are headed in the right direction -- and they are in places where the GOP usually rules. Charlie Cook provided this update:

With the election just eight days away, there are no signs that this wave is abating. Barring a dramatic event, we are looking at the prospect of GOP losses in the House of at least 20 to 35 seats, possibly more, and at least four in the Senate, with five or six most likely.

Governor's rating changes:

AK Open Lean Republican to Toss Up

ID Open Lean Republican to Toss Up

Yes, Alaska and Idaho.

Now check out the House changes. There have been positive upgrades in some of the key races we've all been supporting. This is very encouraging:

AZ-05 Hayworth [Mitchell] Lean Republican to Toss Up

CA-11 Pombo [McNerney] Lean Republican to Toss Up

CO-04 Musgrave [Paccione] Lean Republican to Toss Up

CO-05 Open [Fawcett v. Lambron] Likely Republican to Lean Republican

IA-01 Open [Braley v. Whalen] Toss Up to Lean Democratic

KS-02 Ryun [Boyda] Likely Republican to Toss Up

MN-01 Gutknecht [Walz] Lean Republican to Toss Up

NE-03 Open [Kleeb v. Smith] Likely Republican to Lean Republican

NH-02 Bass [Hodes] Lean Republican to Toss Up

OH-02 Schmidt [Wulsin] Lean Republican to Toss Up

WY-AL Cubin [Trauner] Lean Republican to Toss Up

CA-50 Bilbray [Busby] Likely Republican to Lean Republican

One week from tomorrow. Do everything you can do between now and then to make the change happen. Read the rest of this post...

Open Thread

John's on Larry King Live at around 9:30 pm Eastern time tonight. He's on a panel discussing the elections.

Should be good. Read the rest of this post...

Chicag Trib and Sun-Times both endorse Tammy Duckworth in suburban Chicago

Wow. That's rather amazing that she got the endorsement of the Trib. Their editorial board is decidedly conservative, and let's not forget that this is/was Henry Hyde's district. Wow.

Here is Tammy's final ad:



(Hat tip, Election Central) Read the rest of this post...

Our message over the next week

Arianna says:

This election is about the fact that Republicans have made us less safe and that Congressional oversight is critical to ensure that Bush and company, with their tragically misguided decisions on Iraq and homeland security, don't make us even less secure over the two years they have left. Period. End of message.

It's a good message. I'm going to try to use it tonight when I'm on Larry King Live at around 930pm Eastern or so :-) Read the rest of this post...

DCCC jumping into Nebraska 03, Scott Kleeb's race

Markos is reporting that the DCCC (the Democratic organization that helps elect Dems to the US House) will be dropping new ads, money, and other support in a number of additional races, including Scott Kleeb's race in Nebraska 03, and a number of other races that we've been pushing the past week.

Among the races we've been talking about, and fundraising for, that the DCCC is now going to be offering more help:

WA 05: Peter Goldmark
MN 01: Tim Walz
NY 25: Dan Maffei
IL 10: Dan Seals
NV 02: Jill Derby
NE 03: Scott Kleeb
KS 02: Nancy Boyda

Excellent, Smithers. Read the rest of this post...

District Attorney re-opens investigation of assault charge against GOP Congressman/Candidate for Governor Jim Gibbons

AP reports some big news -- that spells big trouble for the GOP -- in Nevada:

The district attorney said Monday that authorities have reopened their investigation into a cocktail waitress' claim that a Republican congressman running for governor assaulted her in a parking garage after a night of drinking.

District Attorney David Roger said the case involving Rep. Jim Gibbons - which had been closed after the woman, Chrissy Mazzeo, dropped charges - is under investigation again.

This case has had many twists and turns. The latest involves the appearance of previously missing surveillance tapes. That was apparently the tipping point for Ms. Mazzeo. Read the rest of this post...

New poll shows Paccione ahead of Musgrave in Colorado

Very interesting. While the poll didn't include the independent candidate, who has been polling as high as 10%, the same polling company did a survey in August that also didn't include the independent candidate. What they found is that Paccione was behind in August, and she's ahead now, which means the momentum is clearly on her side. And the local media is taking note.

This is perfect timing, one week before the election, for the public perception to be momentum in one candidate's favor.

The 4th Congressional District race has tightened considerably, according to a new independent poll, with Democrat Angie Paccione now showing a slight lead that’s within the survey’s margin of error....

A pervious poll by the same two companies – one that regularly polls for Democrats and the other for Republicans – showed Musgrave with a six-point lead in late August. That poll also didn’t include Eidsness....

[T]he National Republican Congressional Committee spent $19,000 for two polls in the 4th Congressional District in October, according to Federal Election Commission records. While the NRCC didn’t make public the results of those polls, the committee spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on anti-Paccione ads immediately following both surveys, FEC records show.

The Republicans did a private poll, then freaked out. That tells you everything you need to know. We are on the verge of a possible landslide election nationwide.

Angie Paccione (CO-04): $

Read the rest of this post...

It's official, GOP is freaking out over House race in Nebraska

From the Lincoln Journal Star:

It is obvious now. The late injection of national Republican money and TV ads into Nebraska’s 3rd District congressional race is confirmation the GOP fears it may be about to lose a “safe” House seat in eight days....

No one is sharing results from the Republican poll, but it’s clear they were sufficiently alarming for the GOP to send in the cavalry with TV ads attacking Kleeb.

One recent private poll in the district showed Kleeb moving into a narrow lead....

The Sidney Sun-Telegraph, which chose Pete Ricketts over Ben Nelson in the Senate race, endorsed Kleeb with this observation: “As we watched Kleeb speak at the Sidney Community Center, we could not help notice just how many Republicans came out to meet the Democratic candidate.”

We’ve got a race to the wire out there with a week to go.

Kleeb on horseback in TV ads; Smith riding an elephant.

Scott Kleeb (NE-03) $

Read the rest of this post...

Poll: Bush popularity is stalled

A wise man once said:

"There's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again."

Read the rest of this post...

One of the fathers of the 1994 Republican Revolution slams religious right

Read the rest of this post...

Challenge time!

Let's see how much you can donate to the AMERICAblog-endorsed candidates above - and don't forge the 13 new candidates posted in the left-hand column - before Blogger dies again.

On that front, Colorado Republicans are increasingly freaking out - they're in full meltdown mode, and our Angie Paccione is helping fuel the meltdown. Also, I hear that the anti-farm-subsidies Club for Growth and the Republicans are probably going to be kicking in nearly a quarter of a million dollars to take down our favorite cowboy, Scott Kleeb (D-NE).

So do what you can to help, please :-) Read the rest of this post...

CNN hosting blogger event election night - I'll be attending

Wouldn't it be fun for me to blast Google and Blogger on TV before millions of Americans? Read the rest of this post...

Calls increase for GOP Senator George Allen to explain his multiple arrest warrants

From the DSCC:

VA STATE BAR PRESSED TO RELEASE ALLEN APPLICATION DETAILING HIS ARREST RECORDS

Stonewall: Allen Refuses To Say Why He Was Arrested, Refuses To Release Documentation Detailing Arrests

With George Allen refusing to explain why multiple warrants were issued for his arrest, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee today asked the Virginia State Bar to release Allen’s bar application. Allen would have had to explain the warrants on the application and its contents could be the only document shedding light on his arrests. A copy of the letter is below:

October 30, 2006

Virginia State Bar
Attn: Thomas A. Edmonds, Executive Director
707 East Main Street
Suite 1500
Richmond, Virginia 23219-2800

Dear Mr. Edmonds:

I am writing today to request that you make public the application Senator George Felix Allen submitted to the Virginia State Bar Association.

In the late 1970s, Mr. Allen applied to, and was subsequently admitted to, the Virginia State Bar. Mr. Allen’s Bar application was submitted less than five years after two arrest warrants were issued in his name in Albemarle County, Virginia. Since the official arrest records have been purged, your organization may be one of a handful with official documentation regarding these arrests.

Mr. Allen’s name appears in an Albemarle County court index from 1974 and a campaign aide claims Allen was arrested for unpaid parking tickets and fishing without a license. To date, though, Mr. Allen has refused to produce any written documentation verifying his explanation for why the warrants were issued and has not personally addressed the matter.

As such, we are asking that the Virginia State Bar immediately release Mr. Allen’s Bar application on which he was asked about his arrest record. The application will shed light on whether Mr. Allen was arrested for unpaid parking tickets or for something much more severe like assault or battery.

With Mr. Allen suspiciously refusing to disclose the details of his arrests to the public, releasing this information may be the only way for Virginians to learn the truth about Mr. Allen’s arrest record.

Thank you for your kind consideration and timely response.


Sincerely,
J.B. Poersch
Executive Director

Read the rest of this post...

Blogger Is Basically Dead

Read the rest of this post...

GOP invited known porn star to dinner with Bush, lunch with Rove, AGAIN in 2006

NOTE: Blogger has died again. We are doing all we can to launch AMERICAblog 2.0 on its own server this week.

Remember how I wrote earlier about how the Republicans gladly and openly accepted a $5000 donation from porn superstar Mary Carey last year? Well Carey donated again this year, and again the Republican party was happy to accept her donation AND to give her the reward of a dinner and lunch with George Bush and Karl Rove. Carey had the following to say on her return to Washington:

"I'm always excited to learn more about what's going on in our nation's capital, since most people in the porn industry think an Iraqi pullout is a form of safe sex."

And the best part, the Republican party invited her to come. Who exactly invited her? Why, none other than embattled Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY) and his Nation Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).

Yep, money she earned she earned having sex with men and women on a film set, that's the money the GOP gladly accepted. Then they invited her to have dinner with George Bush. And keep in mind that Carey attended last year as well, and caused a media firestorm. So the GOP knew all about her, and had no problem inviting her again.

You can find out more about George Bush's invited dinner guest here via her video interview with, uh, Rusty Boner.

Read the rest of this post...

Which races to watch closely on election night

A very interesting analysis from ContraPositive blog, looking at election night, hour by hour, as each region's polls close, noting which races are the most important to watch for the trends they may suggest for the rest of the evening. It's very interesting, check it out. Read the rest of this post...

Stay the course statistics: 100 US troops killed in Oct.

When the war plan is a campaign slogan, this is what we get:

A bomb tore through food stalls and kiosks in a sprawling Shiite slum Monday, killing at least 31 people, while the U.S. military announced the death of the 100th servicemember in Iraq this month.

The 6:15 a.m. explosion in Sadr City targeted poor Shiites who gather there each morning hoping to be hired as construction workers. At least 51 people were wounded, said police Maj. Hashim al-Yasiri.

In eight days, we can change the course, finally. Read the rest of this post...