Did Hillary's staff reassure Canada that her opposition to NAFTA was just for show?

Remember Hillary bashing Obama for allegedly talking out of both sides of his mouth on NAFTA? Well, the chief of staff to the Canadian Prime Minister says it was Hillary's staff who assured the Canadians that her bluster against NAFTA was all for show. More from Josh Marshall. Read the rest of this post...

So happy together

Read the rest of this post...

Oil shoots up $5, closes at record high

Yes, the Republicans are experts with the economy. The pathetically weak dollar triggers a new record high for oil as it closes at $104.52. Can you imagine the "let market decide" people from a McCain administration? We seem to be hitting "new record highs" and "new record lows" but in all of the wrong places in recent months.

More economists are also seeing even more trouble ahead. Stephen Roach, Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia has another interesting though critical read on where the Fed is taking our economy. Read the rest of this post...

Obama beats McCain by 12; Hillary beats McCain by 6; Voters think McCain is too old

ABC/Washington Post Poll:

McCain is losing three in 10 conservatives to either Obama or Clinton, far more than he likely could stand to see slip away. Democratic presidential candidates since 1988 have won 15 to 20 percent of conservatives, not 30 percent.

That poses a potentially difficult straddle for McCain – reassuring conservatives on his right without alienating moderates and independents in the center. Currently many more Americans call Obama "about right" ideologically, 56 percent, than McCain, 41 percent....

At the same time, Obama's race still rates as a slight net positive for him, as does Clinton's sex for her, compared with the net negative of McCain's age. Americans by a 23-point margin are less enthusiastic about McCain given the fact that he'd be the oldest first-term president; by an 8-point margin, they're more enthusiastic about Obama given that he'd be the first African-American president. Clinton's net positive on being the first woman president is about the same, 9 points.

Obama's race is a net positive for Democrats by 20 points and independents by a slight 5 points, negative for Republicans by 5. Clinton's sex is a net positive for Democrats and independents, negative for Republicans. McCain's age, by contrast, is a net negative across party lines, although to varying degrees....

Despite reduced violence in Iraq, 63 percent of Americans continue to say that given its costs vs. benefits the war was not worth fighting. And fewer than half, 43 percent, are persuaded the United States is making significant progress restoring civil order there.... among independents only a third say it was worth fighting, and just 40 percent see significant progress on civil order....

Only 47 percent of conservatives, and 52 percent of Republicans, pick McCain as better suited in terms of his personality and temperament

Read the rest of this post...

She can't win: Washington Post

Wash Post:

Clinton wiped away the debate last night with a robust victory in Ohio and a narrow win in Texas. But as she vowed to keep campaigning, the tight vote in Texas signaled she may yet face a tough decision in coming weeks. The slim margin in the Texas popular vote and an additional caucus process in which she trailed made clear that she would not win enough delegates to put a major dent in Sen. Barack Obama's lead. And regardless of the results, she emerged from the crucible of Ohio and Texas with a campaign mired in debt and riven by dissension...

[I]t would be enormously difficult for Clinton to overtake Obama in the pledged delegates chosen by voters in primaries and caucuses. By some calculations, Clinton would need to win more than 60 percent of the vote in the dozen contests remaining between now and June 7 to catch Obama in pledged delegates -- a steep challenge given that, so far, she has won that much in only one state, her onetime adopted home of Arkansas. Even in New York, where she is a sitting senator, she won 57 percent of the vote. She won 55 percent in Michigan, where Obama was not even on the ballot.

"Her durability is impressive if not astonishing, but she is still looking at some pretty cold, hard numbers in the race," said Jim Jordan, a Democratic strategist who initially ran the 2004 primary campaign of Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.). "She's running out of time, she's running out of space." He described a Clinton nomination even with wins in Texas and Ohio as "impossible, really."

Read the rest of this post...

McCain touts endorsement by racist TN GOP

Funny. A week ago, McCain was criticizing the Tennessee GOP for putting out its racist press release calling Obama "Hussein" and spreading around that photo of him in traditional African clothing. Yet now, McCain suddenly touting their endorsement. I'm guessing that bragging about their endorsement in a McCain press release does not constitute rejecting or denouncing. Read the rest of this post...

So is Laura Bush qualified to be president?

I'm just trying to figure out how being First Lady or First Gentleman (Sir Dennis Thatcher comes to mind) somehow prepares you for being Commander in Chief of our entire armed forces during war time. (Or as one of our readers put it: "Would anyone let a brain surgeon's husband operate on them?") No one wants to ask the forbidden question, but since Hillary is now saying, repeatedly, that John McCain has more experience to be president than Barack Obama, maybe it's time that Hillary tell us how Laura Bush is qualified to take the country into war. Read the rest of this post...

Hillary again endorses McCain over Obama, in 3 more TV appearances

She said it three more times in the past day. Why the hell is she saying that the Republican candidate is more qualified to be president than our own presumptive nominee? And what the hell does our party plan to do on stopping this train wreck? She can't win, it's over, she doesn't have the delegates and can't get the delegates. She's hoping she can destroy Obama and step in after he's toast. And if she's wrong, she'll simply leave Obama destroyed for the general election campaign against McCain, the guy she has now said four times is more qualified to be president than our presumptive nominee. Here is the first time she endorsed McCain over Obama, and watch her three additional TV appearances below.

2nd time: "[McCain has] never been president, but he will put forth his lifetime of experience. I will put forth my lifetime of experience. Senator Obama will put forth a speech he made in 2002."

3rd time: "I have a lifetime of experience that I will bring to the White House. I know Senator McCain has a lifetime of experience that he will bring to the White House. And Senator Obama has a speech he gave in 2002."

4th time: "Of course, well, you know, I've got a lifetime of experience. Senator McCain has a lifetime of experience. And you know, Senator Obama's whole campaign is about one speech he made in 2002."

Read the rest of this post...

Hillary ad also widens Obama's face, making his nose more stereotypically African-American - and then they got caught lying about it

You'll recall that we wrote yesterday about how Hillary had blackened Barack Obama's face in a new campaign attack ad. Well, Markos found that that's not all they did. They also stretched the width of Obama's face, making his nose wider and more stereotypically African-American looking. Oh yeah, and then they lied about it, and got caught. More from Markos:

Read the rest of this post...

Why are Hillary and John McCain refusing to release their tax returns?

It'd be great for our nominee to hit John McCain on his refusal to release his taxes, but, oh, that's right, we can't because Hillary is doing the McSame old thing.

Hillary likes to tell us that she's been "fully vetted" before, so there will be no more surprises if she becomes our nominee. Really? Putting aside her husband for a moment, let's talk about her taxes. Hillary and McCain are both refusing to release their tax returns. (Obama released his returns last April, 2007.) Hillary says she'll release hers once she becomes the nominee. And McCain won't make any promises at all.

What is Hillary afraid that we'll find in her returns?

The candidates preceding Hillary released their returns before they were the nominee. According to the Washington Post, "Sen. John F. Kerry released his returns in December 2003, long before winning the nomination; Vice President Al Gore's returns, of course, were already public." And Kucinich, Dean, Clark, Gephardt, and even evil Joe Lieberman released his returns.

Then there's Bill Clinton. In 1992, Bill Clinton made his tax returns public during the primaries. But, there was a catch. He didn't release his 1979 and 1978 tax returns. Those were the returns showing that Hillary had made a 10,000% cattle-futures profit that raised a few eyebrows.

So is that why Hillary isn't releasing her returns? Because she knows that sometimes tax returns hide things that might appear (or be) scandalous? But even that argument doesn't make sense since Hillary has promised to release her returns AFTER she becomes the nominee. That means that she has no privacy interest in her tax returns, she's going to let the public see them soon anyway, but she simply doesn't want Democratic voters to get the chance to have her tax returns inform their vote during the primaries.

See, here's how it works. Hillary's tax returns could have something foul-smelling in them, like her 10,000% profit on the cattle-futures. If she releases her returns now, it gives you and me and every other Democratic voter the chance to judge her on what's in her returns, and vote accordingly. But if she waits until after she becomes the nominee, she knows she has us by the, uh, cattle-futures. As a Democrat, I might not vote for Hillary in the primary if I see something fishy in her tax returns. But in the general election, of course I'm going to vote for Hillary, regardless of what's in her returns. At that point, only Republicans will hold Hillary accountable for something fishy in her returns so she mitigates the damage by releasing them later rather than sooner.

So in a nutshell, Hillary says she's been fully vetted, that there are no more surprises in her life. But Hillary doesn't want you to know what surprises might be in her tax returns, lest it influence your vote. But she doesn't care if you see her tax returns a few months from now, when it's too late to influence your vote. That means that privacy isn't Hillary's concern here, since she's pledged to release the returns eventually. Her concern is that she hasn't yet been fully vetted, and she wants to keep it that way until it's too late for us to get buyer's remorse, or at least act on such remorse if we get it. There may be another cattle-futures type scandal in her current returns, for all we know. And were she to release her tax returns now, Democratic primary voters and super delegates might not like what they find, and vote accordingly. And we can't have that.

People with nothing to hide don't usually hide. Read the rest of this post...

McSame as Bush

Read the rest of this post...

McCain is the nominee, time to wring Iraq around his neck. Oh, that's right, Hillary can't.

Oh that's right, Hillary can't. She voted for the war, so now she can't criticize McCain on the war because of her baggage. McCain's number one liability, getting us into an endless disaster of a war, and if Hillary's our nominee, we can touch it. Well, but at least we can get him on Iran. You know, bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran? Scare the heck out of people that John McCain supports going to war with Iran too? Oh shoot, that's right, Hillary voted to authorize the use of force against Iran too, so now that issue is off limits too because of her baggage. Hillary likes to talk about what the Republicans will do to Obama should he become the nominee. But look what they've already done to her. Read the rest of this post...

Bush endorsing McCain at the White House

I'm not naive. I know a lot of politicking goes on at the White House. But, to use the White House as a backdrop for a partisan political endorsement seems wrong.

But that's what's happening today according to AP:

Presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain has an appointment Wednesday with President Bush at the White House for lunch _ and a Bush endorsement.

Once McCain's bitter primary rival himself, the president is rolling out the red carpet. There'll be a formal welcome at the North Portico, followed by lunch in Bush's private dining room and a formal endorsement in the Rose Garden.

I just don't remember such a blatant political campaign event being held there. They're treating McCain like he's a head of state instead of the head of the GOP. It's just one more way for Bush to show his contempt for the White House.

It was the Republicans who made such a big deal during the 90s when the Clintons used the White House for political events. Janet Reno almost had to appoint an independent counsel to shut them up. But, now, under Bush, it's okay.

One thing is clear. With McCain as the nominee, it's business as usual for the GOP. The event is a symbol that a McCain White House would be the same as the Bush White House. Read the rest of this post...

Wednesday Morning Open Thread

Good morning.

Little bleary eyed from staying up to watch results -- and I know I'm not the only one.

Still counting delegates. We'll be doing that for a couple days. Because, remember what Mark Penn said, "This election will come down to delegates." Yes, it will.

Meanwhile, the GOP nominee, John McCain, will be at the White House today to officially become Bush's heir apparent. So, now it becomes officially the McCain-Bush or Bush-McCain party. If that's what they want, so be it.

Start threading. Read the rest of this post...

So far, Clinton may have picked up only 2 delegates more than Obama yesterday

Markos points out what everyone has been writing for days. With 1,000 or so delegates remaining to be won before yesterday, Hillary may have picked up 2. One-third of the total remaining delegates were on the table, and she got 2 (so far). If she keeps going at this pace, after yesterday "huge" victory, she can get 4 more before the race is over. That does nothing to get her any closer to the 157 delegates she needs to overtake Obama. From Markos:

So total for the night, thus far, is Clinton 187 186 and Obama 185. Not all votes are in, so things will change a bit. But at this point, we have a ridiculously tiny one-delegate lead for Clinton for the night, which could either produce her first delegate victory of the election, or be erased by the rest of the still-not-reported Texas caucuses.

Now according to both the Clinton and Obama campaigns, Obama entered the race with a 159 pledged delegate lead. So with some luck, Clinton ends the night about ... 157 delegates behind.

More problematic for Clinton, is that today's 370 delegates were about 38 percent of the just-shy of 1,000 remaining delegates before Tuesday's contests. That means we just had over 1/3rd of the remaining delegates allocated, with only marginal-to-none gains in the count for Clinton.

So Clinton is running out of states, and even her "big" victory Tuesday is proving little more than a pyrrhic victory.

She can't win. But she can ensure that Obama is so bloodied, to use Rush Limbaugh's description of the Clinton strategy, that Obama is damaged goods come the fall. After all, if Hillary can't get the nomination, then nobody should. While I respect the arguments that the lengthy primary process has skyrocketed Democratic turnout and organizing, it's also tearing us and our candidates apart. And get ready for Team Clinton to go even more negative after last night. That means more racism and more made-for-GOP-TV statements about how John McCain is the most experienced candidate for president. Read the rest of this post...

Full Texas results may be not be in until Saturday

Saturday? The current wisdom is that Obama will win more delegates in Texas because of the combined caucus/primary system. So, they split the 4 states, 2 for 2. What remains to be seen is how many, if any, net delegates Hillary picks up tonight. I.e., can she inch closer to Obama's delegate numbers or not? And, as we've written before, it still doesn't matter because the math says she can't catch up. Read the rest of this post...

Construction loans next to fail?

Who would have ever guessed? When bubble buyers stopped buying into the bubble, the bubble money going to bubble developers and bubble construction businesses might be at risk of the bubble bursting. Gosh, it almost seems unimaginable. Almost as unimaginable as the never ending real estate bubble bursting, that is. Do we actually pay people at the Fed to monitor this or do they just go to meetings with Wall Street to chat about what Wall Street wants? How do "experts" accept any theory that revolves around the good times never ending?

As commercial and residential real-estate prices decline, banks of all sizes face a growing number of loan defaults from builders unable to sell houses, and from developers whose malls and other properties turned out to be less desirable than anticipated.

Read the rest of this post...

Big Pharma unable to self regulate prices - where is the free market?

The "free market" Republican program comes back to bite America in the ass, exactly as predicted. Nice. Like most Americans I grew up understanding that the free market meant natural market forces would intervene to impact prices. In the Republican model, this means setting up a comfy sofa with lots of cushy pillows for business and tying two hands behind the back of consumers. Maybe it's his own free market experience of dad using his influence to gain admission into Yale and Harvard that has led him and the Republicans to mistakenly believe that Big Pharma would be reasonable or that somehow the "market" would be involved. Then again maybe AARP who supported Bush at election time (which helped tip the balance) was just plain stupid and believed Bush would do the right thing. There is no precedent for Big Pharma doing the right thing.

Drug makers increased their prices last year by an average of 7.4 percent for brand-name medicines most commonly prescribed to the elderly, according to the advocacy group AARP.

The increase was about 2.5 times overall inflation, continuing a long-standing trend.

Read the rest of this post...

NBC calls Texas primary for Clinton

With 74% reporting, NBC calls the primary portion of the Texas vote for Clinton.

Still waiting for the caucus.

And, waiting for the delegate count. Read the rest of this post...

"This election will come down to delegates"

With all apologies to Keith Olbermann, who found this first:

"This election will come down to delegates.... Again and again, this race has shown that it is voters and delegates who matter, not the pundits or perceived 'momentum.'" - Mark Penn, chief strategist for Hillary's campaign, Feb. 13, 2008

Read the rest of this post...