Tens of thousands of people to be sued for illegally downloading 'Hurt Locker' movie

They're talking 50,000 people. Via Boing Boing:

After filing the lawsuits, the plaintiffs must subpoena ISP records in an effort to match IP addresses with illicit behavior on BitTorrent. According to lawyers at Dunlap's firm, 75 percent of ISPs have cooperated fully. Those that have resisted are mostly doing so, they say, because of the amount of work involved in handing over thousands of names. But the clock may be ticking. For example, in the lawsuit over "Far Cry," Comcast has until next Wednesday to file motions to quash subpoenas. (Here's the stipulation by the parties.) By the end of next week, thousands of Comcast subscribers could be turned over.

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GM crops killing non-GM crops?

Franken-farming really needs to go.

Traditional cotton famers have to spray their crops with insecticides to combat destructive bollworm pests, but Bt cotton produces its own insecticide, meaning farmers can save money by spraying it less.

But a 10-year study across six major cotton-growing regions of China found that by spraying their crops less, farmers allowed mirid bugs to thrive and infest their own and neighbouring farms.

The infestations are potentially catastrophic for more than 10m small-scale farmers who cultivate 26m hectares of vulnerable crops in the region studied.

The findings mark the first confirmed report of mass infestations arising as an unintended consequence of farmers using less pesticide – a feature of Bt cotton that was supposed to save money and lessen the crops' environmental impact. The research, led by Kongming Wu at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences in Beijing, is published in the US journal, Science.

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Mugabe sends modern 'ark' with animals to North Korea

Besides taking young elephants away from their mother - which conservationists say could lead to health problems or death - there is another rumor that he included endangered rhinos in the shipment. Robert Mugabe will give away anything to hold onto power for another day. The Guardian:

According to conservationists, the Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, will send a modern-day ark – containing pairs of giraffes, zebras, baby elephants and other wild animals taken from a national park – to a zoo in North Korea.

The experts warned that not every creature would survive the journey to be greeted by Mugabe's ally Kim Jong-il, the North Korean leader.

There are particular fears that a pair of 18-month-old elephants could die during the long airlift.

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Latest oil spill chart, plus Gulf current info

A couple of items in this post. First, the latest NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) chart for potential landfall of the spill.


That's the 24-hr forecast as of May 13. Their 72-hr forecast is here (pdf). In both graphs, the outer circle is the area of "uncertainty", and the red dots are potential beached oil.

Second, here's the reason everyone on the Atlantic seaboard is worried sick. This is a snapshot of ocean currents in the Gulf of Mexico. (For a real-time, animated version, click here.)

Land masses are white. To orient yourself, find Cuba (the large island center-right), then Florida north of it. Now start at the bottom and watch what the main current does. First it bounces off Yucatan, moves sharply north near the (ahem) spill area, east and south between Cuba and Florida, then north along our coast.

That stream is the potential delivery system of BP oil to the eastern seaboard. If the slick gets into it, the east coast is toast — very buttery toast.

Where is the oil relative to this stream? The red marker in the map below shows roughly where the spill is. (I estimated coords from the NOAA chart above.) The blue marker shows the approximate location of the north bend of the main current (coords from the water current map above). Note that the main current can and does change; that the spill area will grow; and that sub-currents move into the main current, not just away from it.

As you can see from these images, there's still hope for containing the damage to "just" the Gulf of Mexico — for now at least. Stay tuned.

Yours in hope,

GP

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Krugman: We're not Greece

Some are arguing that since Greece and t he US both have big budget deficits, both countries are in equal danger. Krugman says it isn't true:

So, how do America and Greece compare?

Both nations have lately been running large budget deficits, roughly comparable as a percentage of G.D.P. Markets, however, treat them very differently: The interest rate on Greek government bonds is more than twice the rate on U.S. bonds, because investors see a high risk that Greece will eventually default on its debt, while seeing virtually no risk that America will do the same. Why?

One answer is that we have a much lower level of debt — the amount we already owe, as opposed to new borrowing — relative to G.D.P. True, our debt should have been even lower. We’d be better positioned to deal with the current emergency if so much money hadn’t been squandered on tax cuts for the rich and an unfunded war. But we still entered the crisis in much better shape than the Greeks.

Even more important, however, is the fact that we have a clear path to economic recovery, while Greece doesn’t.

The U.S. economy has been growing since last summer, thanks to fiscal stimulus and expansionary policies by the Federal Reserve. I wish that growth were faster; still, it’s finally producing job gains — and it’s also showing up in revenues. Right now we’re on track to match Congressional Budget Office projections of a substantial rise in tax receipts. Put those projections together with the Obama administration’s policies, and they imply a sharp fall in the budget deficit over the next few years.

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Obama is really, really mad about the Gulf Coast spill

The President gave a speech today about the oil spill in the Gulf Coast. He's really mad. Yep, his staff even leaked to reporters that he was going to show everyone just how mad he is. This morning, ABC's Jake Tapper reported that Obama would express "his 'anger and frustration' with the companies responsible for the spill, a senior White House official tells ABC News." During the speech, Obama did indeed express "anger and frustration":

I saw firsthand the anger and frustration felt by our neighbors in the Gulf. And let me tell you, it is an anger and frustration that I share as President. And I’m not going to rest or be satisfied until the leak is stopped at the source, the oil in the Gulf is contained and cleaned up, and the people of the Gulf are able to go back to their lives and their livelihoods.

FYI, that seems to be a theme this week: On Monday, a group of vets lobbying to repeal Don't Ask, Don't Tell were told by White House staffers that Obama was "aggravated and frustrated" at the slow pace of repealing that law. Yes, if only the President had any power or a bully pulpit to fight for repeal of DADT. But, I digress.

There was a time when Obama could have spoken with moral authority on this issue. During the campaign, he dismissed John McCain's support for offshore drilling. Obama even dissed McCain for flip-flopping on the issue, noting that it wasn't the kind of change the American people were looking for. In February of 2009, Obama's administration blocked plans for offshore drilling. But, all that changed on March 31, 2010. That's when President Obama flip-flopped to become a proponent of offshore drilling.

So, what I'm still wondering is what genius at the White House decided this was a good strategy? Who convinced the President to flip? And, why did the President listen? Today, Obama talked tough. But, I think the speech he gave on March 31, 2010, says more about his presidency and leadership than what he said today. If Obama is angry and frustrated, part of that anger should be aimed at whoever came up with this:

There will be those who strongly disagree with this decision, including those who say we should not open any new areas to drilling. But what I want to emphasize is that this announcement is part of a broader strategy that will move us from an economy that runs on fossil fuels and foreign oil to one that relies more on homegrown fuels and clean energy. And the only way this transition will succeed is if it strengthens our economy in the short term and the long run. To fail to recognize this reality would be a mistake.

On the other side, there are going to be some who argue that we don’t go nearly far enough; who suggest we should open all our waters to energy exploration without any restriction or regard for the broader environmental and economic impact. And to those folks I’ve got to say this: We have less than 2 percent of the world’s oil reserves; we consume more than 20 percent of the world’s oil. And what that means is that drilling alone can’t come close to meeting our long-term energy needs. And for the sake of our planet and our energy independence, we need to begin the transition to cleaner fuels now.

So the answer is not drilling everywhere all the time. But the answer is not, also, for us to ignore the fact that we are going to need vital energy sources to maintain our economic growth and our security. Ultimately, we need to move beyond the tired debates of the left and the right, between business leaders and environmentalists, between those who would claim drilling is a cure all and those who would claim it has no place. Because this issue is just too important to allow our progress to languish while we fight the same old battles over and over again.

Yep. That battle over oil spills got so darned tired.

And, who is the genius responsible for this:
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Bill Clinton defends Goldman Sachs

I could somewhat understand Warren Buffet being blinded by his own massive investments in Goldman but Bill Clinton? Oh that's right, it was the Clinton team - Larry Summers and Robert Rubin - who worked closely with the Republicans to create the Wall Street that ruined the global economy. Yes, they all left and cashed in leaving us little people behind to foot the bill. Cha-ching! People like Bill Clinton, Robert Rubin and Larry Summers working so closely with Wall Street is one of the reasons why so many people around the world are furious. It's sickening to see how casually they all ignore their part in this.

Bill Clinton may be somewhat correct that we should all "talk about the facts" and see that Wall Street did not do anything illegal. If their behavior turned out to be legal (and that is still up for debate) it was only because enablers like Clinton helped build that system that everyone else is now paying for or will be paying for soon. And yes, Bill, perhaps government spending needs to be addressed. We all know this means higher taxes thanks to mismanagement in the 1990s and beyond.

Bill's personal balance sheet looks pretty good these days. It sure did take a lucky bounce after leaving the White House and decades of working in government. We should all be so lucky to have the ball bounce so favorably instead of the nasty bounce in the face that we're all getting due to the crisis. Thanks for nothing, Bill. Now go away and don't come back.

Former President Bill Clinton says it is "time to lower the rhetoric and talk about the facts," in reference to the government's scrutiny of Wall Street.

In an exclusive interview with Maria Bartiromo, Clinton noted that while many financial firms are being questioned by the Securities and Exchange Commission, he does not believe that Goldman Sachs or CEO Lloyd Blankfein did anything illegal, based on what he's seeing.

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Report: Deepwater Horizon rig one of many without drilling permit

This story gets worse by the day. Whoever was part of the Minerals Management Service who allowed such practices to go on needs to be brought in front of Congress immediately. Hearing about this only confirms how much control corporate interests have over the system. Any time I read something like this I'm also reminded that corruption is as present in our country as it is in the developing world. How else can you explain such expensive projects being implemented? NY Times:

The federal Minerals Management Service gave permission to BP and dozens of other oil companies to drill in the Gulf of Mexico without first getting required permits from another agency that assesses threats to endangered species — and despite strong warnings from that agency about the impact the drilling was likely to have on the gulf.

Those approvals, federal records show, include one for the well drilled by the Deepwater Horizon rig, which exploded on April 20, killing 11 workers and resulting in thousands of barrels of oil spilling into the gulf each day.

The Minerals Management Service, or M.M.S., also routinely overruled its staff biologists and engineers who raised concerns about the safety and the environmental impact of certain drilling proposals in the gulf and in Alaska, according to a half-dozen current and former agency scientists.

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Obama says 'told you so' to GOP about the economy

He should say it even more forcefully. We were on the verge another Great Depression. The President and the Congress averted it, while the Republicans claimed that the economy was doing swell. The President and the Democrats need to remind people of this fact every day.

"Today, we are heading in the right direction," Obama said. "Those tough steps we took -- they're working. Despite all the naysayers -- who were predicting failure a year ago -- our economy is growing again."

Standing in front of heavy equipment in a manufacturing bay at a company that has added workers, Obama said his critics should have to admit that the steps he took -- and they opposed -- ended the recession and have begun to add jobs, if slowly.

"I knew that if we didn't act boldly and quickly -- if we didn't defy the politics of the moment and do what was necessary -- we would have risked an even greater disaster," he said, calling out the Republican Party as having been "in power when the crisis happened."

And kudos for singling out the GOP. That's something Obama doesn't like doing, but, since health care reform, he's started to do more often.

Democrats in Congress need to echo the same sentiment. Wasted stimulus? Ha! We saved the economy from a Depression that most assuredly would have happened had the GOP been in power. Dems should own the stimulus, the same way they should own health care reform. Talk about the benefits of each until you're blue in the face. Read the rest of this post...

Moderate Republicans give Kagan a pass on JAG recruiting and judicial experience

"Moderate" Republican Senators Brown (Mass.) and Colins (Maine) say they're satisfied with Kagan's answers with regards to her stance on JAG recruiting on campuses (related to gays in the military) and her lack of judicial experience, respectively. This should help take the wind out of the sails of the GOP attack lines against Kagan. Read the rest of this post...

Gulf spill like an Exxon Valdez every four days

It's true that nobody really knows for sure quite yet though there doesn't seem to be any good reason why the word of BP should be trusted. Either way, very little progress is being made.

National Public Radio in the United States last night reported that the well is spewing up to 70,000 barrels of oil a day – the equivalent of an Exxon Valdez disaster every four days. Nearly 11 million gallons of oil were spilled in Alaska's Prince William Sound in 1989 when the Exxon Valdez tanker ran aground, oiling beaches and poisoning marine life for generations. NPR said scientific analysis of newly released video footage from the ocean floor suggested the gusher was 12 times more powerful than estimates offered so far by the Coast Guard or BP.

Its analysis was conducted by Steve Werely, an associate professor at Purdue University, using a technique called particle image velocimetry, a method was accurate to 20%. That puts the range of the oil spill from 56,000 to 84,000 barrels a day.

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Friday Morning Open Thread

Good morning.

Today, the President doesn't have much on his public schedule. He does have a photo op with the winners of 2010 TOP COPS award in the Rose Garden. The awards are given by the National Association of Police Officers (NAPO). Tonight, NAPO hosts an awards ceremony at the Warner Theater here in DC for the TOP COPS. I went to this ceremony once, about ten years ago, back when I worked in the gun violence prevention issues. Cops were our best allies. Actors who play law enforcement officers on t.v. hand out the awards (and I met Christoper Meloni.)

The Senate is still working its way through the financial reform bill. From what I can tell, nothing horrible has happened to the bill -- yet.

The oil keeps gushing into the Gulf of Mexico.

The White House has yet to make it clear that Congress should repeal Don't Ask, Don't Tell this year. Time is running out.

What else? Read the rest of this post...

Day Two of Tory rule and the middle class cuts are coming

Who ever would have guessed such an outcome? The big talk of "compassionate conservatism" is whatever PR spin Cameron used suddenly sounds as ridiculous as it sounded in the US under Bush. That said, at least Cameron had the decency to ask ministers to take pay cuts themselves while paring down the budget elsewhere. Also of note is how few women there are in the new government. It seems pathetic though the right wing UK government isn't the only government lacking in such regard. The Guardian:

Treasury officials have targeted child benefit payments for the middle classes under plans for sweeping cuts to bring the £164bn deficit under control.

The cuts are among proposals being presented to the new Conservative and Liberal Treasury team as it emerged that new policy commitments in the coalition agreement may have added up to £10bn to the government's spending bill.

The Guardian has learned that the Treasury has for months been drawing up plans for cuts of more than 15% in the all departments other than the NHS and international development, where spending has been ring-fenced.

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Thai crackdown leaves one dead

And the report of a sniper shooting a general in the head doesn't sound much better. BBC:

Thai security forces and anti-government protesters remain in a stand-off in Bangkok after clashes overnight in which one person died.

Protesters set fire to vehicles as gunshots rang out and troops moved in to seal off roads around the demonstrators' city centre encampment.

A renegade general backing the protest remains in a critical condition a day after he was shot by an unknown gunman.

The demonstrators want Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to step down.

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