Mexican-American soap star surprises many by coming out anti-gay

A Mexican-American soap opera star has surprised, and angered, many by coming out in favor of the anti-gay ballot measure in California that would revoke the marriages of countless gay couples. You might have thought because of this star's particular background, in the soaps, he'd have a comfortable familiarity with gays. Then again, what better way to stop people asking questions about just how gay-friendly you are, than doing commercials for the biggest anti-gay bigots around. Perhaps it's time we learned more about this guy, his positions, and just more generally what's in his closet since he's so interested in peering into ours.

The good news is that Prop 8 is failing with Latino voters according to a press release we saw from the William C. Velasquez Institute (WCVI). The margin is 46% - 51%. (pdf of that poll can be found here.)

And, yes, one more nag: Contribute, please. We've passed $43,000 on our ActBlue page. Remember, the haters are giving millions -- $4.5 million already this week with the biggest chunk from Utah. And, one of the leading haters, James Dobson himself. will be in San Diego on Saturday to lead the charge against gay marriage. Read the rest of this post...

Louisiana a "dead heat"???

OMG.

The political pundits have obsessed about Pennsylvania, because the McCain campaign told them to obsess about Pennsylvania.

Meanwhile, the gap closed in Arizona, McCain's home state.

Now, a poll in another unlikely state shows a very close race -- Louisiana according to a poll from Loyola University for WAFB News:

While most polls show Democrat Barack Obama with a lead against Republican John McCain nationally, that's not the case in Louisiana, according to our poll. It shows the race is a dead heat in Louisiana, with 43% of voters saying they'll vote for McCain and 40% supporting Obama. With our poll's margin of error of plus or minus four-point-five percent, the results show a statistical dead heat.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (LOUISIANA)

MCCAIN: 43%
OBAMA: 40%
UNDECIDED/WON'T SAY: 17%
MARGIN OF ERROR: +/- 4.5%

The poll shows 93 percent of African American voters in Louisiana have a favorable opinion of Obama. "93 percent is almost total. It's unbelievable," Renwick said. "It's one of the highest percentages I've ever seen."

That's also pretty high undecided for five days out. There hasn't been a lot of polling in the state, but other earlier polls haven't shown the race this close (or with that many undecideds.)

Early voting has already ended in Louisiana. According to Dr. McDonald's site, 58.5% of early voters were Democrats compared to 28.4% Republicans. And, 36.3% of early voters were African-American (which is several points higher than average.) The early vote was double that of 2004. For a great backgrounder on Louisiana's voting registration, read this post.

So, Louisiana, according to a Louisiana based poll for a Louisiana t.v. station is a "dead heat." That might not capture the attention of the talking heads on cable news, but it sure intrigues me.

Read the rest of this post...

Joe the Plumber calls McCain the "real" American in the election

Would Joe like to share his views on who in America isn't a real American? We already know he doesn't pay his taxes, thinks Social Security should have never been created, and is voting for McCain since Obama will be giving him a bigger tax cut. Then we learned that Joe got a country music agent who's talking about Joe possibly doing Home Depot ads, then running for congress. And now Joe is giving us insight into his views on which Americans are real and which aren't.

If we're going to start determining who is and isn't a real American, can we start with those who actually pay their taxes and don't have talent agents?? Read the rest of this post...

Get off my lawn!

Those pesky Northeast lefty media types start young. If only she knew to bring donuts.

The Concord Monitor of New Hampshire recently interviewed local 8th grader Elizabeth Conway, who is a Scholastic Kid Reporter. Conway, who has met John McCain several times, said, "I interviewed McCain so many times he starts to notice my red shirt, because I have a uniform, and says 'I've answered her questions before.' It's almost like he's a little grumpy with me now."

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Obama Campaign's Closing Ads

Capping off last night's closing statement, the Obama campaign has released a final one-two ad punch - an uplifting view of our country's promise (with a very Morning in America feel), and a gut punch ad on John McCain's economic policies.

Something:


Rearview Mirror:


One of the benefits of having a large campaign budget is that you need to make fewer "either this or that" decisions. Do we go negative or stay positive? Obama has been able to do both.

On a related note, there has been a lot of griping by Republicans about Obama's not taking FEC public campaign funds. But let's not forget that every dollar Obama raises is still regulated by the FEC and capped at $2,300 per individual. Obama has the campaign budget he has today is because of the millions of people who donated to his campaign. Don't kid yourself Republicans - if John McCain thought for a second that his campaign could generate millions of donors you can be sure he would have opted to raise the money himself. Obama has more freedom to advertise than McCain because he earned it. Read the rest of this post...

Early voters are new voters in NC and Georgia

John has some good info on early voting totals in the post below.

To monitor early and absentee voting, you have to check out this site written by Professor Michael McDonald. BrownSox at DailyKos has a great, crisp analysis today, too.

The McCain campaign is trying to dismiss the surge in early voting by claiming that most of those voting early would just be voting anyway. In other words, all the people showing up are just part of the existing voter pool, which has been polled and surveyed extensively. But, that's not accurate. Professor McDonald dismisses that spin, at least for Georgia and North Carolina, in an interview with the Washington Post:

One question is whether these early voters are just people who ordinarily would have voted on election day. Republicans have suggested that's the case. But there are some pieces of evidence to the contrary. The high percentage of African Americans voting early in Georgia undercuts the GOP argument.

McDonald has compared the list of early voters in North Carolina with the voter registration files. North Carolina allows, in essence, same day registration for early voters. What McDonald has discovered is that there are about 100,000 people who have voted early who were not previously on the voter lists.

That is very good news.

Also, McDonald was on Rachel Maddow's show last night to talk about early voting -- an issue of great concern to Ms. Maddow:

Read the rest of this post...

Black turnout in Florida is looking huge

And high black turnout might give Obama an additional 4 points in North Carolina.

Read the rest of this post...

Legal Adviser to Prop 8 Campaign Compares Gays Who Want to Get Married to Nazi Germany

Isn't California better than this?

The "No on Prop 8" campaign needs all the help it can get. Todd Beeton at MyDD has a "Call to Action" listing all the ways you can help. But, the best way right now, especially if you don't live in California, is to contribute. It's safe, secure -- and easy. We've raised over $40,000 from AMERICAblog readers -- almost at our goal of $50,000.

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Fun with Sarah Palin

Click through, then click around on the site (and turn your speakers up). It's been updated.

Read the rest of this post...

Some conservatives getting ticked at Romney for trash-talking Palin

A conservative site warns Romney that he'll pay in 2012 for his team's attacks on Palin. I love the smell of civil war in the morning.

Read the rest of this post...

Sen. Bond Warns Palin Crowd That Obama Wants Judges Who Empathize With “The Gay”

So much for John McCain not playing the gay card. Perhaps Senator Bond should have a look at Senator McCain's own staff before making disparaging comments about "the gay." (The gay? Since when did we become a plural people?) I do hope we'll see McCain distancing himself from these hateful, gay-baiting comments. And someone needs to ask the closet cases at Log Cabin what they think of their bff now gay-baiting.

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Hagan hits back on Dole

This is how a nimble campaign works. Yesterday we talked about the vile new ad that Elizabeth Dole has out against Kay Hagan. Today, the Hagan campaign released this ad:



Kay Hagan is right - "bearing false witness against fellow Christians" isn't very Christian. If you're going to call yourself a Christian then you should behave like one. As I mentioned yesterday, this issue is a big one in North Carolina.

This is how you respond to a bully - fight fire with fire. Elizabeth Dole hid her accusations behind grainy images and scary voice-overs. Kay Hagan went right to the public through the camera and hit back - hard. Help Kay Hagan run more of this ad in North Carolina and help us get closer to 60 in the Senate - donate. Read the rest of this post...

Anyone else see the word "Blacks" in this McCain ad?

Our friend Ari caught it, and he's right. John McCain has just thrown out any honor he had left. It's amazing how Karl Rove's people have destroyed McCain and his brand. Utterly.

Read the rest of this post...

Time/CNN polls show Obama leads in Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania

A poll fix from the morning. Today's numbers from Time/CNN:

Obama leads McCain among likely voters by 51% to 47% in Ohio, a four point margin that has not budged since last week's TIME's survey. But he now leads McCain 52% to 45% in Nevada and by 52% to 46% in North Carolina, margins which are both slightly larger than those reported by TIME in its surveys a week earlier.

The new statewide surveys also show Obama leading McCain in Pennsylvania, the key blue state in which McCain is making a last-ditch, major push to score an upset, by a comfortable 12 point margin of 55% to 43%. But he still trails his Republican rival in McCain's home state of Arizona by a seven-point margin of 46% to 53%.

The key now is turnout. That's all that matters. Getting these voters to the polls.

The Muhlenberg tracking poll of Pennsylvania shows Obama with a thirteen point lead today: 54% - 51%. Yesterday, Obama had an 11 point lead in that poll:

The Muhlenberg daily tracking poll, which has surveyed likely Pennsylvania voters since late September, shows McCain with an uphill climb to victory in Pennsylvania, an outcome the campaign views as essential to his chances of winning the White House.

Obama leads McCain 53 percent to 42 percent in the state, a margin that has remained steady since the candidates' last debate two weeks ago.

Chuck Todd finally found a Pennsylvania poll that confirms the McCain spin about Pennsylvania. Coincidentally, it is NBC's poll, by Mason-Dixon, showing a 4-point race: 47% - 43%. On the Today Show this morning, Todd also reported that NBC's poll of Arizona showed a 4 point lead for McCain: 48% - 44%. According to Todd, that means Pennsylvania is a "winnable" for McCain and a battleground. But, Arizona, with a 4-point lead for McCain (his home state where he's not breaking 50%, which is considered deadly for an incumbent running state-wide at this point in the cycle), will be a "battleground state in four years." Got that?

Also, CNN did a report this morning pondering whether we can trust the polls. That's a new meme among the political reporters these days. They obsess over polls, talk about polls non-stop and spend a ton of money on polls. But, now, to keep the suspense, they don't want us to believe those polls, which they report on endlessly.

Only five more days.

Here's the Pollster.com trend for Pennsylvania, which includes NBC/Mason-Dixon:

Read the rest of this post...

McCain calls Biden "Joe the Biden"

And not intentionally, it would seem.

Read the rest of this post...

McCain stood up by Joe the Plumber

McCain is in Ohio today - home of Joe the Plumber, John McCain's running mate for the last two weeks. McCain just threw a shout out to Joe, who was supposed to be there today. Well:



Oops - did someone get stood up? When Sarah Palin was in Ohio yesterday, Joe was there. Even Joe the Plumber gets that McCain is finished.

Maybe Joe was meeting with his PR team trying to get his country music deal. No matter, even Joe the Plumber has gotten what he can out of John McCain. Read the rest of this post...

So, I'm still a bit confused about this Joe-the-Plumber thing

Let me get this straight. John McCain finds a guy to be his mascot for Americans who will be hurt under Obama's tax plan, when in fact Joe Mascot does better under Obama's plan than he does under McCain's. And to add insult to injury, Joe doesn't really pay all his taxes anyway - he's delinquent. But somehow that makes him a "hero" to Republicans, and it makes him John McCain's perfect mascot for the campaign - a guy who doesn't pay his taxes and who will benefit more from an Obama presidency. And now, "Joe" has hired a personal manager (read: agent) who hopes to get Joe doing Home Depot commercials and maybe even running for Congress (seriously). What's next, $150,000 outfits and $8,000 make-up jobs? Are there any Republicans left who appreciate the debasement of their party that is happening before their eyes? Read the rest of this post...

Bush-McCain economy shrinks in Q3

If you like this, McCain will gladly provide more of the same.

The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.3 percent annual rate in the third quarter, its sharpest contraction in seven years as consumers cut spending and businesses reduced investment in the face of rising fears that recession was setting in.

Meanwhile, a separate report showed jobless claims were unchanged, staying at levels that signal a weak jobs market as the credit crisis hits hiring.

The Commerce Department said the third-quarter contraction in gross domestic product was the steepest since the corresponding quarter in 2001 though it was slightly less than the 0.5 percent rate of reduction that Wall Street economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast.

Read the rest of this post...

Bush builds huge federal Ebola lab, with horrendously deadly bugs, in path of hurricane

You want pork, let's talk pork. This is John McCain's good buddy, George Bush's pork. And it's sickening.

Much of the University of Texas medical school on this island suffered flood damage during Hurricane Ike, except for one gleaming new building, a national biological defense laboratory that will soon house some of the most deadly diseases in the world.

How a laboratory where scientists plan to study viruses like Ebola and Marburg ended up on a barrier island where hurricanes regularly wreak havoc puzzles some environmentalists and community leaders...

Built atop concrete pylons driven 120 feet into the ground, the seven-floor laboratory was designed to stand up to 140-mile-an-hour winds. Its backup generators and high-security laboratories are 30 feet above sea level.

That's nice, because hurricanes never get any faster winds. Oh wait, they do. There's more:

The laboratory will do research into some of the nastiest diseases on the planet, among them Ebola, anthrax, tularemia, West Nile virus, drug-resistant tuberculosis, bubonic plague, avian influenza and typhus.

Read the rest of this post...

Politico: McCain camp trying to scapegoat Palin

Yes, she's a blithering idiot. But John McCain picked the blithering idiot. So what does this say about him? He can't disown her now. John McCain risked our entire future by making her our future possible president. More from Politico.

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Thursday Morning Open Thread

Good morning.

5 days.

Reaction was very positive to the Obama 30-minute program -- except that political guru, Matt Lauer, who thought it was "over the top." Funny to hear the extremely well paid host of the TODAY Show wonder if Obama is spending too much money. You know, because a Democrat should never be able to raise and spend so much.

The next five days are going to be intense. The McCain campaign will get even more vicious. The political media will be in a frenzy to make this race appear closer (better for ratings.) We cannot get distracted by the noise. Stay focused. Work harder. Give more. And, crush the Republicans.

Let's get it started...

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52% of bailout to banks being paid in dividends to shareholders

This needs to be eliminated immediately. It's unacceptable to let banks pay shareholders dividends while they are being propped up on life support via taxpayer money. The "Treasury" people (hmmm, who could that be?) who are allowing this are trying the old spin, that if banks are unable to hand out dividends they would not participate in the plan to bail them out. Ummm, huh? Let's review, yet again, who is in control here. It's not the banks, it is the US government. Why is there so much fear about having a come to Jesus with the banks?

Critics, including economists and members of Congress, question why banks should get government money if they already have enough money to pay dividends -- or conversely, why banks that need government money are still spending so much on dividends.

"The whole purpose of the program is to increase lending and inject capital into Main Street. If the money is used for dividends, it defeats the purpose of the program," said Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), who has called for the government to require a suspension of dividend payments.

The Treasury plans to invest up to $250 billion in a wide swath of U.S. banks in return for ownership stakes, which the government will relinquish when it is repaid.

Among other restrictions, participating institutions cannot increase dividend payments without government permission. They also are barred from repurchasing stock, which increases the value of outstanding shares.

The 33 banks signed up so far plan to pay shareholders about $7 billion this quarter. Companies generally try to pay consistent dividends and, at the present pace, those dividends will consume 52 percent of the Treasury's investment over the initial three-year term.

Wow. 52% of the bailout for dividends. What was Paulson thinking? Read the rest of this post...

Cuomo now asking for CEO pay details on nine banks

Between Cuomo and Waxman, Wall Street is in for some long days.

New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is demanding information about executive compensation and bonuses at nine banks that have received federal funds under TARP, the U.S. Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program.

In a letter to each institution's Board of Directors, Cuomo warns the bonuses could violate New York's state fraudulent conveyance law.

"Obviously," he writes, "we will have grave concerns if your expected bonus pool has increased in any way as a result of your receipt or expected receipt of taxpayer funds from TARP."

In the letter, Cuomo demands information on how this year's bonus pools were calculated, as well as details on each bank's 2006 and 2007 bonus payments.

This is an excellent start. NY and Washington also need to keep digging on the company-wide bonus money but bringing the CEO pay in line should help open up that discussion. Read the rest of this post...

The Wall Street Coffin - for sale now

I hope that he sells enough to make up for his losses and can give a few bucks to a good charity along the way. The Wall Street coffin.

For $35, you can order a wood coffin filled with actual shredded money and a plaque of your choice, including "R.I.P. Lehman Bros., 1885-2008", and "R.I.P. Bear Stearns, 1923-2008." For an extra $5, you can customize the plaque. Maybe "R.I.P. Jane's 401k", or "R.I.P. Jane's GE Stock Options with a $28 Strike Price."

The coffins are made by Jist Enterprises in Westfield, New Jersey. The owner, who describes himself as "a regular working stiff" says on the web site: "As a citizen of the United States, I’m disgusted! I’m disgusted that our financial institutions have failed us so dramatically and that our government has allowed this crisis to evolve...What can I do? I can sell this little Wall Street Coffin and donate 15% of the proceeds to some good charities that help people through difficult times."

Read the rest of this post...

China's "soft landing" and other fantasyland stories

Maybe there is a modern example of a "soft landing" but nothing comes to mind in recent memory. Japan's soft landing didn't work out very well nor did the tech soft landing that was often touted and the same could be said about the real estate bubble which had been at the center of soft landing stories a few years ago. A bubble is a bubble. In the case of China, look at the neighbors who pumped money into China and who are toppling. Does anyone honestly think that a significant slowdown in factory production won't cause painful problems? Of course there's a local market but the economy is heavily geared towards exports and selling to buyers who have enough money (or credit) to buy goods.

China certainly has cash to invest in infrastructure and that's really good news. (At least someone has the spare cash and is focusing on it.) Infrastructure development will be helpful but it is not going to prevent a hard landing after years of speculation, easy money and a troubled customer base who is not buying. Miracles can happen, but more often than not, those touting "soft landings" are proven wrong. Very wrong. Read the rest of this post...

Medical debt adding to credit crisis and economic problems

For me this is one of the most disgraceful aspects of the Republican control in America. It's shameful to have the richest country in the world offer a health care system that is beyond average. Yes, I know the US has some of the best health care and sure, there's a cost to it. I get all of that. What is pathetic in my opinion is that we have so many uncovered and even for those with insurance, they live in fear of losing everything. I'm familiar with the fear because when my own father was diagnosed with cancer in September of 2001, that was his first comment. He was terrified of the cancer but even more worried about losing his life savings and leaving my mother with nothing.

Go ahead and make fun of France and the rest of Europe or Canada for the socialized health care systems, but you don't have people living with such fears. But in 2008, this is the state that the Republicans have left us in. Make fun of those who give a damn about the country as a whole and ignore the mean spirited attitudes that allow people like McCain to dish out a worthless program that offers nothing other than talk.

I would imagine that everyone who works for a living knows of a story where someone either went into debt or feared going into debt so opted for no health care or a bad choice. In my fathers case, he opted for VA care which was every bit as bad as they say. Are we really this mean spirited and selfish as a country where we will let others fall so far into debt only because of health? I sure hope not.

Since 1999, Keith and Deborah Krinsky of Magalia, Calif., have seen their health insurance deductible soar from $1,000 to $10,000.

And their health-care costs have put them in a financial hole.

A combination of Keith's chronic asthma and potential heart problems, Deborah's connective tissue disorder and fallen arches, and their kids' various scrapes and stumbles led them to amass a pile of credit card debt and forced them to refinance the mortgage on their house -- which they now are having trouble paying.

Keith, once a plant manager for a trucking company in Chico, took a $30,000 pay cut to get a job with better health benefits. Deborah, who doesn't work because of her disability, said they are still fighting desperately to stave off foreclosure.

"Right now, we are in the process of losing our home. We will probably go to my mother-in-law," Deborah said Monday.

Read the rest of this post...

Bank fees increasing, as always

This is an industry that simply can't lose. They blow billions and trillions and we bail them out so they can continue paying lavish salaries and bonuses. Even with their failed business practices, Paulson gives them billions to fund even more consolidation so they can become even bigger and one day, stronger. All the while they've been handed cut rate borrowing terms even though they slowed down loans to just about everyone and then, on top of all of this, they slam consumers with even more fees. If only such authority to dictate policy existed in Congress. Hmmm...

Fees for bounced checks and withdrawing cash from an out-of-network ATM rose again this year, according to a survey released Monday by Bankrate.com.

The average cost of using another bank's ATM is now $3.43, up 13 percent from last year. A bounced check costs an average of $28.95, up 2.5 percent from a year ago, according to the survey.

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