Mortgage delinquencies climbing

Tell me again why the Obama administration is bringing in economists who thought all of this made sense? Who needs liberals anyway? It's probably best that we run away with tails between our legs from the liberal label since conservatism has been such a success.

“The biggest story is really with mortgages,” said Becker. His firm, which has a database of 27 million anonymous consumer records, projects delinquencies will reach their highest levels since 1992.

“The percentage of mortgage borrowers who are 60 days or more past due on their mortgages historically hovers right around two percent, and at the end of the third quarter of 2008, it had reached almost four percent,” he added.

Becker expects mortgage delinquencies to reach 4.7 percent at the end of 2008 and 7.17 percent by the end of 2009 – three-and-a-half times the historical norm.

...

“Auto loan debt at the end of the third quarter was about 80 basis points, and we expect it to hit 88 basis points by the end of this year,” Becker told CNBC.

By the end of 2009 he expects auto loan debt to rise above one percent for the first time since his company started tracking the number.

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A reader argues that small stores matter

Reader Tony responded to my post Wednesday, questioning why small neighborhood stores matter:

I live near a local business district. I'm neighbors with the vendors. They live in the area. I'm friends with many of them. They like me, and I like them. I help a lot of them the way that I help you. I consider it to be my civic duty. If we lose local resources when the businesses fail, then they are replaced with empty storefronts, broken glass, crime, vandalism. When they thrive, the whole neighborhood blooms. LOTS of happy, safe, secure customers walking the streets at all hours, enjoying life in a fun neighborhood. Maybe they don't have that sort of thing in DC. If not, I sure as heck don't want to go there!

In order to live in our neighborhood, folks have to make a decent living. Down at the Walmart in the valley, they DON'T make enough to own their own homes. They're permanently poor. I use the phrase "I like to keep my money local", and do whatever I can to bring business to the local shops because of the upward swing toward gentrification. As a gay man you've got to have GENTRIFICATION tattooed on your very soul!

Local vendors are not separate from neighbors - They ARE our neighbors, and if they fail, the neighborhood slides toward harsh times. I wonder how much of this makes sense to you... It's rock-solid logic to me.

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Facebook bans breastfeeding photos

Breastfeeding? Are they really banning photos of breastfeeding? Why not just throw a blanket over the "spirit of justice" and hide the shameful breasts? Facebook becomes loonier by the day. What a complete waste of space Facebook has become and the sooner it's left behind, the better.

Facebook has become the target of an 80,000-plus protest by irate mothers after banning breastfeeding photographs from online profiles.

Facebook's policy, which bans any breastfeeding images uploaded that show nipples, has led an online profile by protestors - called "lactivists" in some circles - called "Hey Facebook, breast feeding is not obscene".

The online petition, which accuses Facebook of instituting the policy to "appease the closed-minded", has attracted almost 82,000 supporters.

The actions of the group came to a head over the weekend when the protesters organised a virtual "nurse-in" on the social networking website where for a day angry supporters posted a profile picture of an image of a mother breastfeeding and changed their Facebook status to say "Hey Facebook, breastfeeding is not obscene!".

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About the GOP's use of the word "negro"

Reader Chris writes in about the GOP's use of the word "negro":

I can tell you that, as someone growing up in the South when everyone was a Democrat, the people who switched parties to the Republicans did so precisely because they ARE racist. This guy’s standing up for their right to make fun of black people, and that speaks to them in a way that most of us can’t understand.

And I’ll also tell you that most – not all, but it’s close – of the gay Southern Republicans I know are Republicans precisely because of race. Sometimes they couch it in terms of taxes and welfare spending, but most don’t feel the need for euphemisms.

I don’t think I’ll ever figure it out, really, but the best explanation I can come up with is that they 1) perceive “Republican” to be a more establishment label than “Democrat,” and therefore more respectable, and 2) that at least in the GOP they know there will always be two groups of people who are lower on the totem pole (blacks and Latinos). Now, gays might be lower on the totem pole in terms of the party rank and file, but we know that’s not true among the party leadership.

I guess what this all boils down to is that the Magic Negro recording probably will help Saltzman in many quarters.

Note that Ken Blackwell quickly became an apologist for this. “Oh, it’s all in fun. The media are over-reacting.”

One of the things that tells you what a party is about is identifying those issues where they plant the flag and take a stand. In other words, what principles are more important to them than winning elections?

For a significant swath of the Republican Party, and in their remaining base in the South, keeping black people “in their place” is more important to them than anything else. This is just one more case in point.

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Patrick Fitzgerald wants a 90-day delay to file Blago's indictment

Oy.

This saga already has gone on too long. But, via Ben Smith, we learn that U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald has asked for a 90-day extension before he files the indictment against Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich.

Ben asks a few questions:

More evidence? A weak case? Behind-the-scenes negotiations?

Tip O'Neill said all politics is local and we're certainly getting a look at the underbelly of Chicago politics. In politics, there's nothing worth than the local rivalries. Don't think for a minute that Congressman Bobby Rush isn't enjoying his chance to wreak a little revenge on Barack Obama, who challenged (and lost to) Rush in the 2000 Democratic primary. Rush didn't endorse his fellow South Sider in the 2004 Senate primary. And, you know Blago is loving the attention. He's THE national political story, which he always wanted, although not in this context. Now, some people are asking if Blago hasn't outsmarted us. You think he doesn't love that?

Chicago has always fascinated me. Politics is a such blood sport there. In 1984, I worked on the Mondale campaign. During the general election, I was stationed in Chicago working for my very good friend (then and still), Pat Eltman. The year before, Harold Washington was elected Mayor -- the first black mayor of Chicago. He was in a fierce and constant battle with Alderman Eddie Vrdolyak who, more importantly, was the chair of the Cook County Democratic Party. Fast Eddie, as he was called, became a Republican and is also now a convicted felon. Richie Daley, who lost to Washington in the 1983 Democratic primary for mayor, was the Cook County States Attorney. There was never a dull moment and all the excitement came from the intra-party squabbles. It was an amazing experience to see Chicago politics first-hand. And, some of the same players are still in the game.

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Rick Warren, who doesn't believe in evolution, needs to evolve (but why should he when he still gets top billing at the inauguration?)

Just came across an op-ed from Monday's Kansas City Star written by Mary Sanchez. It's excellent. She calls out Rick Warren for his homophobia and his blatant dishonesty about Prop 8. Basically, Warren keeps saying he could be charged with a crime if Prop. 8 didn't pass (and Warren is lying about that). No legitimate constitutional scholar (including, I suspect, former University of Chicago Law professor Barack Obama) would ever validate Warren's "hate speech" interpretation of Prop. 8. But, being a liar, a homophobe and a person who thinks non-Christians are going to hell means Rick Warren gets top billing at the inauguration. What a funny world it is:

One of the reasons so many Obama supporters are outraged by Warren’s role in the inauguration is that in the last election campaign, the preacher lent his weighty support to Proposition 8, the California ballot initiative to place a constitutional ban on gay marriage. Warren has said he supported Prop 8 because he fears being charged with hate speech for preaching against homosexuality. That’s another argument in bad faith. Warren knows he can preach whatever he likes, protected by the First Amendment.

I suspect what Warren really fears is that the public will recognize him for what he is: an old-time religionist with old-time beliefs about issues on which American attitudes have, so to speak, evolved. In recent days Warren has said: “I have many gay friends. I’ve eaten dinner in gay homes. No church has probably done more for people with AIDS than Saddleback Church,” referring to his megachurch and the many efforts it has made to aid HIV suffers in Africa.

How is that different from saying, “I have a few black friends, but I still believe in segregation“?

And can a minister retain a tax-free status, a podium at the presidential inauguration, and his bigotry as well?

I hope Warren uses the days left before the inauguration to reflect and pray and usher in a transformation — of his own attitudes toward those whom God has made different from Warren.

Maybe he can surprise us by admitting that his own religious convictions should not be a bar to the civil rights of others who, using their God-given powers of reason, arrive at different beliefs. That would be quite a transformation, perhaps one of biblical proportions.

Don't expect that transformation. Warren is already being richly rewarded for his bad behavior.

Ms. Sanchez makes the key point that no one in the upper echelons of the Obama camp seems to get (or worse, they get, but don't think it's a problem): Discrimination and intolerance are just unacceptable, even if the target is "just the gays." I was traveling over the weekend so just got around to reading what David Axelrod said on Meet the Press. His words were really quite astonishing:

"This is a healthy thing and a good thing for our country. We have to find ways to work together on the things on which we do agree, even when we profoundly disagree on other things."

Um, I don't think it's all that "healthy" and "good" when Warren equates my relationship with pedophilia and incest. Axelrod thinks this is some kind of policy discussion. It's not. Warren's words are an invitation for more hate and vitriol to be spewed at the gay community. But, to David Axelrod and Team Obama, Warren was a savvy political move. It's probably tough being the smartest people around. Sometimes the rest of us dumbbells just don't grasp the brilliance of these savvy political moves.

Even in these very precarious times and even with an electoral mandate, it won't be easy to enact the change we were promised. The Republicans are already gearing up to obstruct the stimulus package. The economy is teetering so the stimulus package should be a no-brainer, but it's not. Imagine what the GOP will do to health care, global warming and getting out of Iraq. But, team Obama decided they need Rick Warren for some reason -- even if it pissed off the base. But, soon enough the Obama brain trust will realize Rick Warren and his followers aren't going to fight for Obama's agenda. A lot of that ilk will be leading the fight against the new administration's top priorities -- even after Warren gets his moment in the inaugural spotlight.

One last thing: Paul Krugman has Warren's quote on evolution. The inauguration speaker doesn't believe in it. Read the rest of this post...

In Minnesota, Democrat Al Franken's lead is now at 49 votes, which means his GOP opponent, Norm Coleman, is going to sue and sue and sue

After weeks of recounting and canvassing, Al Franken has a 49 vote lead in the Minnesota Senate race. There are still absentee ballots being counted (the ones which were incorrectly rejected), although that process is itself quite complicated as all sides have to agree on which ballots to count. But, from the level of hysteria emanating from the GOP side, it's pretty clear that they know Norm Coleman's Senate career is winding down:

From Hastings to Washington, the battle over Minnesota's heated U.S. Senate race raged Tuesday, as Democrats edged closer to declaring victory for Al Franken and campaign lawyers sparred over counting hundreds of rejected absentee ballots at meetings across the state.

"At this stage, it appears that Franken will be certified the winner by the state Canvassing Board," said Jim Manley, a spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev. "We're keeping abreast of the situation and will make a decision with regard to Senate action at the appropriate point in the process."

Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., went further, saying that if the Canvassing Board declares a winner on Monday, the Senate should "consider seating that person pending litigation."

That brought a sharp retort from Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, who suggested the GOP will try to block any effort by Democrats to seat Franken before all legal issues in the recount are settled.

Those "legal issues" may take a while to settle. Norm Coleman and the Republicans are threatening lawsuits. Lots of lawsuits. They're quite willing to go to court to try to overturn the will of the voters. That's classic GOP strategy. It's what got us George Bush in 2000. Coleman is even being advised by GOP attorney Ben Ginsberg, who was Bush's lawyer during the Florida debacle in 2000. But, over the past few weeks, we've seen that Minnesota in 2008 isn't Florida of 2000. The voters might actually get to decide this one.

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Wednesday Morning Open Thread

Good morning. I'm back to my routine.

It's the last day of 2008. What a year, huh? We're ending this year on the brink of an economic crisis and still engaged in two wars. In 21 days, we're rid of George Bush. But, it will take years and years to undo the damage he's inflicted on our country and the world. Years and years.

And, is there a bigger dick in politics than Rod Blagojevich? Wow. That guy just doesn't cease to amaze. He sure seems to have a vendetta going against his one-time ally, Barack Obama. It's like Blago is plotting each move to do the most damage he can to Obama and the Democratic party.

I guess it's that time of year to make New Year's resolutions. I rarely do, but next year, I resolve that I will not awaken to the TODAY Show. In 2009, I will not get out of bed irritated every day.

Let's start threading the news. Read the rest of this post...

UK to outsource email, phone, internet monitoring

Another great moment in Western democracy. Looking at how well outsourcing the Underground and train system has gone one can only imagine what a mess this is going to be. Why do politicians always think that outsourcing government functions is such a fantastic idea? Government agencies may not be perfect but the outsourcing craze has hardly shown strong results.

A cabinet decision to put the management of the multibillion pound database of all UK communications traffic into private hands would be accompanied by tougher legal safeguards to guarantee against leaks and accidental data losses.

But in his strongest criticism yet of the superdatabase, Sir Ken Macdonald, the former director of public prosecutions, who has firsthand experience of working with intelligence and law enforcement agencies, told the Guardian such assurances would prove worthless in the long run and warned it would prove a "hellhouse" of personal private information.

"Authorisations for access might be written into statute. The most senior ministers and officials might be designated as scrutineers. But none of this means anything," said Macdonald. "All history tells us that reassurances like these are worthless in the long run. In the first security crisis the locks would loosen."

The home secretary postponed the introduction of legislation to set up the superdatabase in October and instead said she would publish a consultation paper in the new year setting out the proposal and the safeguards needed to protect civil liberties. She has emphasised that communications data, which gives the police the identity and location of the caller, texter or web surfer but not the content, has been used as important evidence in 95% of serious crime cases and almost all security service operations since 2004 including the Soham and 21/7 bombing cases.

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Air conditioning is a necessity?

It's no wonder the US uses so much energy when you look at this list that compares "luxury versus necessity". Paris is rarely hot enough to warrant an air conditioner but I easily live without a/c, including while in hot locations. For us, we prefer a fan over a/c any day of the week though while driving, I can see the advantages over the weak fans that only blow hot air. (Even so, we don't have a/c in the car we borrow in the summer.) We used to have a clothes dryer but that broke down a few years ago and we never bothered to replace it. Same story with the TV (and cable TV) which we never replaced.

The high speed internet or computer is a must have, for us at least. So what do you think is necessary versus habit?

Some of these goods, such as home computers, are relatively recent information era innovations that have been rapidly transformed in the public's eyes from luxury toward necessity.

But other items - such as microwave ovens, dishwashers, air conditioning for the home and car, and clothes dryers - have also made substantial leaps in the past decade even though they've been fixtures on the consumer landscape for far longer.

For example, the percentage of American adults who describe microwave ovens as a necessity rather than a luxury has more than doubled in the past decade, to 68%. Home air conditioning is now considered a necessity by seven-in-ten adults, up from half (51%) in 1996. And more than eight-in-ten (83%) now think of a clothes dryer as a necessity, up from six-in-ten (62%) who said the same a decade ago in a survey conducted by the Washington Post, the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, and Harvard University.

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