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Monday, October 27, 2008

Wash Post talking about a possible Obama "landslide"



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From Chris Cillizza at the Post:
On our latest Fix electoral map, we have Obama at 349 electoral votes -- his highest total since we began picking the playing field earlier this fall -- while McCain stands at 189 electoral votes.

And, it's uniquely possible that Obama could crest 350 electoral votes before all is said and done next Tuesday. The hardest three states for us to pick -- Missouri, Indiana and Nevada -- were all carried by President George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004. (In the case of Indiana, the Republican presidential nominee has carried the state in every election but one -- 1964 -- since 1936.)

.... Much can change in eight days -- especially when so many people are paying so much attention. But, since late September Obama has consolidated his electoral gains and looked hungry for more. There is little indication in any polling we've seen that any major change agent is on the horizon that would disrupt that pattern.
As always, I'll give the usual caveat. They're losing, big time. But they can steal it. Don't let them. We need massive turnout in order to guarantee that we have enough of a margin of victory to stop them from stealing the key states they need. Also, we have lots of congressional races that matter, including getting enough additional Senate seats so that we can kick Joe Lieberman to the curb. And finally, as Joe Sudbay and Markos have both said, we don't just need to win - we need to utterly crush and destroy the Republicans in this election. We need to send a clear message that our country has had enough of these bozos. Palin is already planning to read her head in 2012 - we need to put a stop to that now. Read the rest of this post...

Mormons catching flack for meddling with gay marriage in California



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One of the biggest opponents of gay marriage in California is the Mormon church. They are one of the players in the money behind Prop 8. Seems they are now catching some blow back from within their own ranks as well as bloggers. From the San Francisco Chronicle:
The church largely stays out of politics. But in this case, the Salt Lake City-based church has sent letters, held video conferences and in church meetings asked for volunteers to support the campaign. In response, some church members have poured in their savings and undertaken what may be an unprecedented grassroots mobilization for the effort.

Prop. 8 is on pace to be the costliest race in the nation, except for the billion-dollar presidential election. The Yes on 8 campaign estimates that up to 40 percent of its donations come from Mormons. Some others estimate that Mormons account for over 70 percent of donations from individuals.
Seems like the Mormon Church wants to manipulate the political process for their own ideology. Well, sometimes, people fight fire with fire.
Prop. 8 opponents are increasingly narrowing their focus on Mormons, harnessing technology and open-records laws in their efforts. One Web site run by a Prop. 8 opponent, Mormonsfor8.com, identifies the name and hometown of every Mormon donor. On the Daily Kos, the nation's most popular liberal blog, there is a campaign to use that information to look into the lives of Mormons who financially support Prop. 8.
Sunshine is a great thing and it teaches lessons. One pro-Prop 8 supporter seems to have learned a lesson:
Those words speak for Michele Sundstrom, 47, of San Jose, who has been married for 18 years and has five children.

She and her husband gave $30,000 to the Yes on 8 campaign and put a sign on their home. But in response, two women parked an SUV in front of their home, with the words "Bigots live here" painted on the windshield.

Sundstrom believes such responses must come from deep places of pain - and that gays and lesbians are entitled to the same rights as heterosexuals, just not the word marriage. Any animosity toward gays or lesbians is wrong, she said.

"There must be such deep, deep, deep hurt; otherwise there couldn't be so much opposition," she said. "They've lived with this. I guess we're getting a taste of where they live."
Yup, I guess you are. Is it really worth a word?

Maybe Mormons should be more worried about Mormon Warren Jeffs and his definition of marriage rather than whether Warren marries Jeff. There are plenty of ways to help the No on Prop 8 campaign - help here. And you can donate here:

Goal Thermometer Read the rest of this post...

McCain's buddies in the religious right say America won't survive if they lose anti-gay vote in California



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Kind of says all you need to know about these people. The Family Research Council's Tony Perkins (who's always reminded me a bit too much of Lindsey Graham) says that America won't survive if you don't vote for the anti-gay proposition next week. What a drama queen, that Tony Perkins. And suggesting that this is the most important issue in America right now - gay marriage - when everyone's 401ks are going to hell in a basket and we're involved in 2 wars. What is that girl drinking? Then again, we shouldn't be surprised that Perkins sees the anti-gay proposition as more important than electing McCain president. Perkins probably figures, along with every one else, that McCain has already lost the election. Read the rest of this post...

Palin spent $50,000 on governor mansion remodeling pork



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$50,000 to remodel your house? Then again, when you wear $150,000 worth of clothes from Saks and Neiman Marcus, I guess you have to have a real spiffy house too, you betcha.
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Head of GOP Senate Committee blames McCain for "making it a lot more difficult"



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Senator John Ensign from Nevada is the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. It's his job to help Republicans win Senate seats. Tough job this year. But, Ensign isn't too blame. No, he thinks Mccain is hurting the Republican Senate candidates:
“There's no question the top of the ticket is affecting our Senate races and it’s making it a lot more difficult,” Ensign said on MSNBC. “It’s a fairly toxic atmosphere out there with the financial crisis for Republicans.”
Sure, McCain is a horrible candidate, but the GOP Senators held create that "toxic atmosphere." Like McCain, they blindly followed Bush's lead, which has put our nation in peril. Read the rest of this post...

McCain economics adviser Carly Fiorina: Let the US auto industry die



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And she probably wonders why she was banished to a secret undisclosed location after her last eruption. What an idiotic thing to say a week before the election. But this is way Republicans thinks. Let the US auto industry go bankrupt in order to pay homage to the all-knowing almighty "market."

From Reuters:
The U.S. government can assist automakers but cannot save them and any aid should be limited so taxpayers do not become ensnared in a long-term investment in the embattled industry, an economic adviser to Republican presidential candidate John McCain said on Monday.

"I don't think the government can rescue the industry," Carly Fiorina, former chief executive of Hewlett-Packard Corp, told Reuters at an event in suburban Detroit.

"Whatever the government does, it should not take away the fundamentals of risk-taking. Sometimes it leads to rewards and sometimes consequences, downside," she said. "In other words, the auto industry cannot be saved from its own bad bets."
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Obama's closing argument: I ask you to believe



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Jed posted the last few minutes of Obama's closing speech, which was debuted today in Ohio. I watched the speech earlier today. It's powerful. And, I believe:

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Neo-nazi skinhead plot to assassinate Obama and commit mass murder broken up by federal agents



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This very disturbing story is breaking this afternoon:
A plot by two Neo-Nazi skinheads to assassinate Barack Obama and kill dozens of other African Americans has been foiled, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms said Monday.

Daniel Cowart, 20, of Bells, Tenn., and Paul Schlesselman, 18, of West Helena, Ark., were charged Friday with making threats against a presidential candidate, illegal possession of a sawed-off shotgun and conspiracy to rob a gun store.

Jim Cavanaugh, special agent in charge of the Nashville ATF field office, said the two men sought to go on a national killing spree that included an unnamed African-American school, with Obama as their final target.

The two planned to shoot 88 black people and decapitate another 14, he added. The numbers 88 and 14 are symbolic in the white supremacist community.

“They said that would be their last, final act — that they would attempt to kill Sen. Obama,” Cavanaugh said. “They didn’t believe they would be able to do it, but that they would get killed trying.”
Read the rest of this post...

Anti-Defamation League condemns Pro-McCain Republicans in Pennsylvania for 'trivializing' the Holocaust



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A lot has been written about Sarah Palin's and John McCain's disturbing ties to anti-semites. And today, even more problems for John McCain and Sarah Palin, now from the ADL. The Anti-Defamation League, probably the lead organization in charge of fighting anti-Semitism, hatred, prejudice and bigotry, today condemned pro-McCain Republicans in Pennsylvania for trivializing the Holocaust (via email):
The Anti-Defamation League (ADL) today condemned an e-mail message sent to Jewish voters in Pennsylvania, reportedly paid for by the “Republican Federal Committee of PA – Victory 2008.”

The e-mail suggested that a vote for Barack Obama would be a “tragic mistake,” and “Jewish Americans cannot afford to make the wrong decision,” adding that “many of our ancestors ignored similar warning signs in the 1930s and 1940s.”

Abraham H. Foxman, ADL National Director and a Holocaust survivor, issued the following statement from Poland, where he is traveling with an Israel Defense Force delegation visiting Auschwitz and other historical sites associated with the Holocaust:
Ugly, divisive personal attacks against a candidate for any political office should never be acceptable, and using Holocaust analogies is completely beyond the pale.

Regardless of which candidate one supports, it is shocking and profoundly distressing that anyone would see fit to make such an odious, false and repugnant analogy. Not only does it further debase the level of our political discourse, but it also diminishes and trivializes the virulent anti-Semitism and Nazi aggression that led to the slaughter of six million Jews and millions of others.

We hope that the signatories of this letter and those responsible for its dissemination will repudiate its message and apologize to both the candidate and the Jewish community.
Much more on McCain's and Palin's anti-semitic ties here (the entire page is devoted to posts about anti-Semitism in this campaign). Read the rest of this post...

BREAKING NEWS: Stevens Guilty



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The Washington Post is reporting that Alaska Republican Ted Stevens has been found guilty in his corruption trial.

This is yet another example of Republican's consistent use of government for their own personal gains. Good news for Stevens Democratic opponent Mark Begich - help him knock off yet another corrupt Republican by contributing here.

UPDATE: Roll Call is reporting that Stevens is guilty on all counts.
UPDATE2: The Washington Post has a full article here. Stevens is on the ballot next week and nothing bars the people of Alaska from reelecting him:
Despite being a convicted felon, he is not required to drop out of the race or resign from the Senate. If he wins re-election, he can continue to hold his seat because there is no rule barring felons from serving in Congress. The Senate could vote to expel Stevens on a two-thirds vote.

"Put this down: That will never happen - ever, OK?" Stevens said in the weeks leading up to his trial. "I am not stepping down. I'm going to run through and I'm going to win this election."
It's up to the people of Alaska to reign in Ted Stevens. Read the rest of this post...

Did Palin pay $900 for a spray-on tan?



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I'm sure she'll tell us it's not really HER tan, she's just borrowing it, and will return it when the campaign is over. Probably donate it to some poor family in Ohio.
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Further confirmation that It really is close in Arizona



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Arizona is John McCain's home state. He should be winning it by a landslide, just as Obama is winning Illinois by 25 points. A big sign of McCain's weakness is that he's in trouble, even in his home state.

Over the weekend, we reported on a new poll showing the presidential race in Arizona had tightened considerably. More confirmation via Rasmussen, which released a poll today showing McCain leading 51% - 46%. A month ago, McCain led by 21% (59% - 38%).

NBC's political team has changed Arizona to a "Lean" state:
In addition to the Colorado and Virginia changes, we have moved McCain’s home state of Arizona from Likely McCain to Lean McCain, a tip to the reality that Arizona, without McCain on the ticket, would have been a contested battleground. A new poll conducted by a Democratic group found McCain with just a four-point lead over Obama in the state, 48%-44%. This comes on the heels of private polls we have seen that show the presidential contest to be tight in Arizona. In addition, McCain's collapse in Hispanic support is contributing to this downturn here as well.
McCain is in trouble in the place where they know him best. Read the rest of this post...

McCain aides swipe back at Palin: "Her lack of fundamental understanding of some key issues was dramatic."



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McCain aides strike back at Palin aides:
A second McCain source says she appears to be looking out for herself more than the McCain campaign.

"She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone," this McCain adviser said. "She does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else.

"Also, she is playing for her own future and sees herself as the next leader of the party. Remember: Divas trust only unto themselves, as they see themselves as the beginning and end of all wisdom."....

"Her lack of fundamental understanding of some key issues was dramatic," said another McCain source with direct knowledge of the process to prepare Palin after she was picked. The source said it was probably the "hardest" to get her "up to speed than any candidate in history."
And this one will make you laugh:
CNN contributor and Republican strategist Ed Rollins said Palin was "mishandled" during the earlier part of the campaign, and as a result, "she's become a target of a lot of ridicule."

But, he said, "She definitely is going to be the most popular Republican in this country when this thing is over."
First off, that statement may be literally true, as after this election is over it's not clear if any Republican will be popular in America ever again. But putting that aside, Palin's negatives are shooting through the roof. The myth of her popularity was debunked weeks ago. Yes, Palin is popular with the 23% of Americans who think George Bush is doing a wonderful job (and apparently she's doing a bang up job drumming up the racist, gay-hating, anti-Soviet anachronistic nutjob vote). But the rest of America thinks she's a blithering idiot. If the GOP wants to tie its horse to one of the most disliked Republicans in America, oh please do. Read the rest of this post...

In New Jersey, Dennis Shulman can beat Rep. Scott Garrett, one of the worst of the worst in the GOP. And, Garrett is anti-dog, too.



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Dennis Shulman is the Democratic candidate for Congress in New Jersey's 5th Congressional District. We wrote a post about Shulman last month and raised money for his campaign. Dennis will make Congress a better place.

Shulman's opponent, Scott Garrett, is one of the most right wing of the right wingers in Congress. Garrett is a truly nasty guy -- he's bad on all the key issues. He's even anti-dog, which is very disturbing.

Dennis is on a roll. Last week, he got endorsed by the New York Times:
Residents in this stretch from northeast Bergen County to rural northwestern New Jersey are represented by Scott Garrett, one of the most conservative members of Congress. Mr. Garrett supports constitutional amendments to ban abortion, even in cases of rape and incest. He backs President Bush’s tax cuts for the wealthy and limited aid for the poor.

We endorse Dennis Shulman, a Democrat who is a rabbi and psychologist. Mr. Shulman says he would work to mitigate global warming. He would also take an interest in psychological counseling and educational opportunities for veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan.
He's now on the DCCC's Red to Blue list. And, he's making mincemeat out of Garrett. Check out this exchange from their last debate:
Democratic candidate Dennis Shulman insisted that three-term Republican Rep. Scott Garrett repudiate a news release that questions whether Shulman supports the U.S. Constitution.

"What are you doing? You're accusing me of being anti-American? How dare you? How dare you?" Shulman said at the start of a radio debate on WRNJ in Warren County.

"You cannot, truly you cannot be that desperate to keep your job to make these kinds of accusations," he added.
Garrett is that desperate and he's in trouble. Garrett is one of those fervent anti-tax Republicans, but, he's been exposed as a tax cheat this year.

Keep an eye on this race. Shulman has made this race competitive and has the momentum. This is the year to beat the nastiest Republicans. Garrett is on the top of that list. Read the rest of this post...

Former Romney aides on McCain campaign behind Palin trash-talk



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Joe reported earlier that Mitt Romney is a top McCain economic adviser. McCain should be wary. According to the right wing American Spectator, Mitt's people have been undermining Sarah Palin, because they're trying to set up Mitt for 2012:
Some former Romney aides were behind the recent leaks to media, including CNN, that Governor Sarah Palin was a "diva" and was going off message intentionally. The former and current Romney supporters further are pushing Romney supporters for key Republican jobs, including head of the Republican National Committee.
That means Romney and his people have already written McCain off for this race. Expect some retaliation from Palin's people. This is getting good. Read the rest of this post...

With eight days left, an angry John McCain is still trying to deal with the economic crisis



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Senator Obama is delivering his closing argument today.

On the other side, John McCain was just on my t.v., apparently delivering a major address on the economy. He was joined by his economic team, which includes Mitt Romney (more on Mitt later).

There are eight days left in the campaign. McCain's address today was supposed to be an explanation of his economic plan. With eight days left, McCain shouldn't still be explaining his economic plan. Actually, as I listened, there really wasn't a plan. There was just a lot of ranting about Obama.

This is the kind of speech a candidate should be giving in August or September, not late October. Usually, it's the Democrats who are giving "policy" speeches at this point, trying to convince voters with arguments. We're past policy, by which I mean voters are making visceral decisions now. People don't trust McCain on the economy. His erratic behavior during this economic crisis completely undermined his campaign. The ties to Bush didn't help either.

McCain just looked and sounded both frustrated and angry:

Read the rest of this post...

Palin says the $150k in clothes were never hers, McCain campaign disowns her comments



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Oh man this is getting good. First off, Palin just outright lied, or accused the McCain campaign of outright lying, about her new $150,000 wardrobe they bought her to gussy her up for Joe Six Pack. Palin now claims the clothes aren't hers. Uh, so why is she wearing them? But the best part was what the McCain campaign said next:
A senior adviser to John McCain told CNN's Dana Bash that the comments about her wardrobe "were not the remarks we sent to her plane this morning."
It's pretty clear that the reports of warfare between the Palin and the McCain camps are now confirmed as true. This is gonna get ugly. And utterly delicious.
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Wash. Post Poll: Obama leads in Virginia 52% - 44%; McCain hurt by Bush and Palin.



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This is the kind of headline I like to see on the front page of the Washington Post: Poll Gives Obama 8-Point Va. Lead: McCain's Image Still Linked to Bush.

Obama has the lead, the momentum and the organization in Virginia. The poll shows Obama leading 52% - 44%, but check out this info:
Obama has opened almost 50 offices, dispatched more than 250 paid staffers and recruited thousands of volunteers to knock on doors and call voters across the state.

The poll indicates that Obama's staff and volunteers have made staggering gains in reaching out to Virginia's 5 million registered voters. More than half of all voters surveyed said they have been contacted in person, on the phone or by e-mail or text message about voting for Obama, far more than said so about McCain.

Obama's ground game is being supplemented with a highly energized base of supporters who could give him an advantage in the important get-out-the vote effort.

Seven in 10 Obama supporters said they are "very enthusiastic" about voting for him, an increase from the late September poll. By contrast, 39 percent are that keen on McCain's candidacy, a 6 percentage-point dip over that period.

Obama has an almost 2 to 1 advantage over McCain in Northern Virginia, surpassing even the 60 percent mark that Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) and Sen. James Webb (D-Va.) racked up in the region during their successful campaigns in 2005 and 2006.

Obama is also performing far better elsewhere in Virginia than Democrats have done in recent state and federal elections. He and McCain each drew 48 percent of the vote outside Northern Virginia, a signal that Obama's repeated visits, as well as his multimillion-dollar advertising blitz, has softened the GOP base in the more rural parts of the state.
I think one rule in politics is "don't disrespect the part of a state that has the most voters" like the McCain campaign, through Joe McCain and Nancy Pfotenhauer, did to Northern Virginia.

On the other hand, McCain is dealing with the double whammy of Bush and Palin. First, Bush:
Bush's unpopularity remains a central liability for McCain in Virginia; 53 percent of voters said the senator would lead the nation in the same direction as Bush has, and these voters overwhelmingly support Obama.
Then, Palin:
Palin also is dragging down McCain in Virginia, the poll indicates. Half of Virginia voters now have "strongly" or "somewhat" negative views of the Alaska governor, a 12 percentage-point increase from September.

Concerns about Palin, who is scheduled to campaign today in Fredericksburg and Leesburg, might be compounded by widespread apprehension about McCain's taking office at 72. That would make him the oldest person to be elected to a first term as president, and 48 percent of Virginia voters said they are uncomfortable about that.
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McCain on Bush and McCain: "Do we share a common philosophy of the Republican Party? Of course."



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Yesterday on "Meet the Press," McCain made a major admission: Of course, he and George W. Bush "share a common philosophy." Of course. Obama responded forcefully, because that "common philosophy" has been one of the main themes of the campaign. And, Jed got it all on video:

Read the rest of this post...

Monday Morning Open Thread



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Good morning.

8 days.

This will be a wild, wild week. Lots going on up and down the ballot. At the presidential level, there are a couple things to watch for this week: The first is, of course, how much nastier and uglier the attacks emanating from the Republicans get. The second is how rogue Palin gets because it's looking like she's dumped McCain and has started her 2012 campaign for president. Then, there's the growing GOP in-fighting and back-stabbing, which is just too much fun.

8 days til we change the world. Seriously, these elections are going to change the world. It's been eight long, long years. So we all need to do everything we can do between now and November 4th to make sure it happens -- and, to make sure we truly vanquish and crush the Republicans.

8 days.

Let's get it started...
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Hospital crowding forces beds into hallways



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Desperate times call for mild answers, right? That massive tax credit is going to solve all of our health care problems including overcrowding in ERs.
"They sent me up here to make room for other emergency patients," Gray, 78, said last week from his bed in the hall of a New York area hospital. "This is the way things are in hospitals."

It may not sound like ideal health care, but hospital officials nationwide are being urged to consider hallway medicine as a way to ease emergency department crowding, and some are trying it.

Leading the way is Stony Brook University Medical Center at Stony Brook, N.Y., where a study found that no harm was caused by moving emergency room patients to upper-floor hallways when they were ready for admission.

The study's lead author says all hospitals should look at the program's success.

"This is yet another battle cry for hospitals to get off their duffs and stop stacking people knee deep in the emergency department," said Dr. Peter Viccellio, who is clinical director of the hospital's emergency department.
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Blackwater hired as security in Somalia



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What could possibly go wrong? AP:
Blackwater Worldwide and other private security firms — some with a reputation for being quick on the trigger in Iraq — are joining the battle against pirates plaguing one of the world's most important shipping lanes off the coast of Somalia.

The growing interest among merchant fleets to hire their own firepower is encouraged by the U.S. Navy and represents a new and potential lucrative market for security firms scaling back operations in Iraq.

But some maritime organizations told The Associated Press that armed guards may increase the danger to ships' crews or that overzealous contractors might accidentally fire on fishermen.

The record in Iraq of security companies like Blackwater, which is being investigated for its role in the fatal shooting of 17 Iraqi civilians in 2007, raises concerns about unregulated activity and possible legal wrangles.

"Security companies haven't always had the lightest of touches in Iraq, and I think Somalia is a pretty delicate situation," said Roger Middleton, who wrote a recent report on piracy in Somalia for Chatham House, a think tank in London.
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Asian markets extend losses



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The Nikkei is getting closer to 7,000 (it's peak was 39,000) and Hong Kong is losing over 10% so far. China's Shanghai has lost another %5 though the South Korean market eventually finished positive after an emergency rate cut. There is plenty of talk about the US doing the same though at some point, you can only cut rates so low and it seems as though we are either there or pretty close to that point. Read the rest of this post...

Kuwait injects $2.7 billion into leading bank to prevent failure



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A familiar story but yet another region. A global solution is going to be needed though I remain skeptical that it will happen. The recent rapid growth in Kuwait and Dubai was tied to yet another bubble and we know what bubbles do when they grow up. They burst.
Kuwait's Central Bank stepped in Sunday to prop up one of the country's biggest banks and said it was considering guaranteeing deposits in domestic banks — in one of the first concrete signs that the global financial crisis may next hit the oil-rich Gulf.

In Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, the government said it would deposit $2.7 billion into the Saudi Credit Bank to help lower-income citizens deal with financial difficulties, the country's Al-Ektisadiya newspaper reported.

The two moves came just a day after finance ministers from the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council held an emergency meeting to echo assurances, which they have repeatedly voiced over the past few weeks, that the region's banks face no liquidity crisis.

Kuwait's decision to stop trading in shares of Gulf Bank sent a shock wave through the country's bourse, which closed down almost 3.5 percent and brought its year-to-date losses to over 19 percent.
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Pensions and 401K plans to get trimmed thanks to Republican economy



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Well, at least it's fair that Wall Street is still on target to receive $70 billion in bonuses. They tried and that's all that matters. For everyone else, let's see how well year end bonuses and end of year perks go. Companies are pushing more health care costs out to employees and now pension plans are reporting problems with funding and the few that remain in corporate America are talking about cutbacks, problems with funding and even cancellations and moving to 401K plans.
US corporate pension funds are getting slammed by the stock market's downturn, squeezing profits and prompting some employers to drop their pension plans or make other cuts to offset losses.

Just last week, defense giant Lockheed Martin Corp. cut its earnings forecast, citing higher pension costs; its retirement investments had dropped 25 percent this year. Boeing Co. estimated its pension fund was down 20 percent this year, likely forcing it to pump in $100 million more. And Raytheon Co., based in Waltham, said it plans to boost contributions to its pension fund by an extra $94 million next year, partly because its pension fund has shrunk 20 percent since January.

"We're going to have a very bad year," said Howard Silverblatt, an analyst with Standard & Poor's, a financial research firm based in New York. "Companies are going to have to put significant amounts of money in [pension funds] this year."
And in the 401K world, it's not much better. Cutbacks (or total removal) of matching dollars is likely to be the next casualty as GM announces their policy change.
As if your 401(k) hadn't been through enough.

American workers, forced to look on helplessly as the value of their 401(k)s sink in sync with the Dow, now have something else to worry about. On Wednesday, General Motors told its nonunion employees that starting next month, it would stop matching their contributions to their 401(k) plans until business conditions improve.
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