Video: Young Guns II, the return of the Ryan budget’s assault on Medicare

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Romney econ adviser jokes about deporting senile seniors to save money on Soc. Security and Medicare

Dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb:

Greg Mankiw, the Harvard professor who serves as one of Mitt Romney’s top economic advisers, has managed to take a shot at two key constituencies – Hispanics and seniors – in a single linked post on his popular economics blog.

Under the header “A Fiscal Solution,” Mankiw, who served as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under George W. Bush, posted an uploaded photo of an unidentified newspaper clip, a joke, that read:

“Budget Cuts: The Immigration Department will start deporting seniors (instead of illegals) in order to lower Social Security and Medicare costs. Older people are easier to catch and less likely to remember how to get home.”

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Illinois polls close at 8pm ET

Politico:

Mitt Romney appears poised to record another primary win in Illinois Tuesday night, padding his delegate lead and forcing his Republican opponents to find another moment to mount a guerrilla challenge to his campaign.

Romney has led every poll taken in the run-up to tonight’s vote, though there haven’t been enough surveys to predict the outcome with certainty. A Public Policy Polling survey released Sunday showed him with a 15-point lead over Rick Santorum.

A Romney defeat in Illinois would be a major upset and an embarrassing setback for the former Massachusetts governor. But a Santorum aide acknowledged while voting was still in progress that Romney is likely to emerge victorious.

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DOD study: Dire consequences for US if Israel strikes Iran

This story is from yesterday, but important. NYT:

A classified war game held this month to assess the American military’s capabilities to respond to an Israeli attack on Iran forecast that the strike would lead to a wider regional war, which could draw in the United States and leave hundreds of Americans dead, according to American officials.

The officials said the war game was not designed as a rehearsal for American military action — and they emphasized that the exercise’s results were not the only possible outcome of a real-world conflict. But the game has raised fears among top American planners that it may be impossible to preclude American involvement in any escalating confrontation with Iran, the officials said. In the debate among policymakers over the consequences of any possible Israeli attack, that reaction may give stronger voice to those within the White House, Pentagon and intelligence community who have warned that a strike could prove perilous for the United States.

The results of the war game were particularly troubling to Gen. James N. Mattis, who commands all American forces in the Middle East, Persian Gulf and Southwest Asia, according to officials who either participated in the Central Command exercise or who where briefed on the results and spoke on condition of anonymity because of its classified nature. When the exercise had concluded earlier this month, according to the officials, General Mattis told aides that an Israeli first-strike would likely have dire consequences across the region and for United States forces there.

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Video: Puppy has a serious image problem

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Attorney General Eric Holder was once against children carrying illegal guns. Damn him all to hell.

What is the nation coming to when people want to deny city-dwelling children their illegal right to carry a handgun in public.  Yet that is in fact what the right-wing has now uncovered.

It seems that Attorney General Eric Holder once suggested during the 1990s that we use a TV ad campaign to convince kids in Washington, DC that illegally carrying around a gun might not be a good idea.  Mind you, this was around the time that DC was the murder capital of the US, and it was illegal for anyone to have a gun.  According to the Republicans, convincing grade school kids not to walk around illegally packing heat is an Orwellian violation of their Second Amendment right to blow each other's brains out over a game of hop-scotch.

Next thing you know Holder is going to be against kids sticking their fingers in light sockets.

I was living in DC around the time Holder took his infamous stand against grade school kids defending their lunch money with a Colt .45.  I remember sitting outside what was then a cafe called The Pop Stop, on 17th street, just east of Dupont Circle.  It was a trendy gay neighborhood, and I was having an iced coffee with friends when two young African-American kids walked by.  One was really young, like 6, and the other looked to me to be about 8.  Maybe 10, tops.  There was an older African-American man, grandfather type, wearing a suit and tie, looking like he dressed up simply because that's what proper people do when they go for a walk, and wearing those hats that grandpas love to wear, and he was scolding the 8 year old for something, waving his finger at him.  The 8 year old was smilingly nastily at the old man, and clearly in an effort to intimidate him, lifted his shirt and flashed the hilt of a handgun that was stuffed in his waistband.

This was before the age of cell phones.  There were easily a dozen of us just sitting there, feet away, watching this unfold.  We didn't know what to do.  So we sat there helpless as some child threatened an old man with a gun, in public, in front of a crowd of onlookers.

Damn you, Eric Holder.

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7.5 earthquake in Mexico

ABC has some news, not much yet.  A little more from Reuters.

Rick Santorum has reportedly told the Mexicans they can't get US aid until they learn to speak G-damn English.  /snark Read the rest of this post...

What was said on the Trayvon Martin shooting 911 tape?

There is some controversy over what was said by the shooter in the Trayvon Martin case, George Zimmerman, during his 911 call, especially at the 2 minute and 21 second mark. He seems to say "f--king" and then another word. Some think the second word was a racial epithet, others don't hear it.

Since there's a growing discussion over this case, and over the 911 call, we thought we'd post it so you can listen for yourself.

Here's the Trayvon 911 tape. Listen at 2:21.



What do you think? Some say he said "cold" or "punks". Some say it's indecipherable. And some claim he spoke a racial slur. Your thoughts?

GP

(To follow on Twitter or to send links: @Gaius_Publius)
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Is Michelle Obama stumping for gay marriage?

First Lady Michelle Obama mentioned the right to "love whomever we choose" in a recent fundraising trip to NYC.  And although she's said that phrase before at events, this time it's gotten noticed.  Why was the phrase non-controversial before, yet causing controversy now?

Because the issue of marriage equality, aka gay marriage, is moving at a faster clip than politicians can keep up with.  On its own, organically, marriage has become the putative number one issue for many in the gay community.  In part because of all the anti-gay ballot initiatives in the states this fall (but also a pro-gay one in Maine), in part because it's been 500 days since the President claimed to be "evolving" on the issue, and in part because of a growing number of victories on the issue in the courts.

For whatever reason, gay marriage is a hotter topic today than it was a year ago.  And the President, and the party, are finding that what was kosher to say six months, even one month, ago, now stirs controversy.  The best thing the President could do is make this issue go away, now.  And the only way he can do that is to evolve already.

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Demand for iron ore "flattens" in China, more concern about bubble bursting

For those who think there will be a soft landing in China, this may not be good news. For those who think the bubble will never burst, carry on.

BHP Billiton is seeing signs that iron ore demand from top consumer China is flattening, raising concerns about Australia's trade outlook, but the world's biggest miner is pushing ahead with its ambitious plans to expand production. Chinese demand for iron ore has been the driving force behind years of expansion work by the world's biggest mining companies. More than 100 million rural Chinese are projected to settle in towns and cities in the next decade, requiring unprecedented amounts of steel for housing and infrastructure. But earlier this month, China cut its 2012 growth target to an eight-year low of 7.5 per cent.

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Obama wanted cuts to Social Security and Medicare during failed Grand Bargain talks

Here's the Washington Post behind-the-scenes story of the failed Obama–Boehner Grand Bargain negotiations. It's a doozy.

I'm focusing on one thing only — Obama and your children's safety net.

First this (my emphasis and reparagraphing everywhere):

A lot of red ink, the Republicans thought. But the major elements of a bargain seemed to be falling into place: $1.2 trillion in agency cuts, smaller cost-of-living increases for Social Security recipients, nearly $250 billion in Medicare savings achieved in part by raising the eligibility age. And $800 billion in new taxes.

And later, after Obama balked at something called "dynamic scoring" (counting "revenue from economic growth" as revenue), there's this:

That night, Obama prepared his party’s congressional leaders. He warned Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) that he might return to the position under discussion the previous Sunday — that is, cuts to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid in exchange for just $800 billion in tax increases. Would they support him?

The Democratic leaders “kind of gulped” when they heard the details, [WH chief of staff William] Daley recalled. ... Reluctantly, Reid and Pelosi agreed to do their best to support the plan.

And still later:

Working late into the evening, Obama asked someone to get Boehner on the phone. [Obama's] message: I’ll take your last offer. “Mr. President,” Boehner answered, “we don’t have time to reopen these negotiations.”

White House officials said this week that the offer is still on the table.

Be still my heart. As Digby says:

So selling out Medicare and Social Security, lowering taxes on the wealthy and cutting the hell out of everything else was just fine, but dynamic scoring was the hang up? Well, I guess we at least know what the limits are now.

One thing is clear from this article: the administration simply had no respect or concern for the Democratic base's reaction to what they were doing. They had convinced themselves that raising taxes in some fashion --- no matter how abstract --- would be enough to assuage them.

And she's right.

The real "grand bargain"

About all this safety net dealing, I just want to point out one thing. If you're over 45 or so, your Social Security and Medicare are not at risk. You will be just fine.

The real Grand Bargain isn't between the Dems and Republicans. It's between both of them and you. They're offering to sell out your children's Social Security, in exchange for letting you keep your own.

Your Democratic Party at work, folks. Here until progressives grow some stones and take some "tea party" action.

GP

(To follow on Twitter or to send links: @Gaius_Publius)
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Will there be justice for Trayvon Martin?

Seventeen year old Trayvon Martin was shot by neighborhood watchman George Zimmerman on February 26th while visiting his father in Florida.  Outrage over the case has been growing, and last night we learned that the FBI was launching an investigation.  First the background...

Zimmerman had called a non-emergency dispatch number with concerns about a suspicious looking African-American teenager. He later pursued Martin against the directions of the dispatch operator. Moments later, a fight accompanied by cries for help broke out, followed by gunfire. Zimmerman admitted to killing Martin but claimed self-defense. The police took him at his word, failing to perform the drug and alcohol test that is standard practice in homicide investigations, despite one expert saying Zimmerman sounded intoxicated on the recording of the call.  The outcry has been over why the police didn't investigate further.

ThinkProgress has compiled an incredibly damning set of facts surrounding the incident. I've copied a few to consider here:

Zimmerman called the police to report Martin’s “suspicious” behavior, which he described as “just walking around looking about.” [Orlando Sentinel]

Zimmerman was carrying a 9 millimeter handgun. Martin was carrying a bag of Skittles and a can of iced tea. [ABC]

Zimmerman called the police 46 times since Jan. 1, 2011 "to report disturbances, break-ins, windows left open and other incidents. Nine of those times, he saw someone or something suspicious." (One news outlet claimed that he had called 911 forty-six times --in fact the article being cited as proof of this does not make clear whether he called 911 or a non-emergency number.) [Miami Herald]

According to neighbors, Zimmerman was “fixated on crime and focused on young, black males." [Miami Herald]

A police officer “corrected” a key witness. [ABC News]

Three witnesses say they heard a boy cry for help before a shot was fired. [Miami Herald]

As mentioned above, Zimmerman has claimed self-defense in his decision to shoot Martin. However, given Zimmerman's intentional disregard of the dispatch operator's instructions not to follow Martin, and to let the police handle it, and reports of cries for help coming from the boy holding the Skittles instead of the man with the gun, there are understandable concerns that an innocent 17 year old may have just been gunned down in the street because someone didn't like the way he looks.  The police should have taken the case more seriously.  And to add insult to injury, the local police reportedly have a spotty record in dealing with African-Americans.  This is one more reason that they should not have dismissed this case out of hand, and one more reason they may have.

The Department of Justice issued a statement last night regarding the incident, and has indicated that the FBI will open an investigation. The DOJ statement reads in part:

“The Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Middle District of Florida, and the FBI opened an investigation into the facts and circumstances of the shooting death of Trayvon Martin.  The department will conduct a thorough and independent review of all of the evidence and take appropriate action at the conclusion of the investigation...With all federal civil rights crimes, the government must prove beyond a reasonable doubt that a person acted intentionally and with the specific intent to do something which the law forbids – the highest level of intent in criminal law.  Negligence, recklessness, mistakes and accidents are not prosecutable under the federal criminal civil rights laws...”

It would be great to live in a country that has outgrown its painful history of hatred and violence. Sadly, it appears that America may still have some growing left to do. Read the rest of this post...

Republican white supremacist running for N. Idaho sherrif

He says his views on race will not influence his approach to the office.  I'm sure a lot of Republicans claim the same. Read the rest of this post...