Latest polls in Ohio and Texas

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(From Pollster.com) Read the rest of this post...

Friday Orchid Blogging

Phrag. Elizabeth Castle

I got this guy as a freebie baby plant from someone after another plant they sent me didn't do so well. I looked it up online and kind of yawned. Little did I know that I either looked up the wrong plant, or this plant has a lot of variation in it. The red is pretty striking, it's actually almost a purple-red, and it has a very very very slight scent, almost a bit citrusy (like many orchids, at least I've found). The flowers tend to bloom sequentially, one comes out for a few weeks, then drops off in perfect shape and another blooms, and on and on for 4 or more flowers over a few months. Seems to be a hardy grower, for me at least, so it's a keeper. Enjoy. Read the rest of this post...

Obama gets a 3 a.m. phone call too

Fast response from the Obama team:

Matt Yglesias has the Clinton campaign's attempt to answer a reporter's question "What foreign policy moment would you point to in Hillary's career where she's been tested by crisis?" That was the point of the Clinton campaign's 3 a.m. phone call ad, after all. Let's just say, Matt was less than impressed with the answer and notes "an uncomfortably long moment during which neither Mark Penn, Howard Wolfson and Lee Feinstein have anything to say."

There's now a video about the audio.

Read the rest of this post...

Ellen: ‘We must change’ our country’s attitudes towards gays.

From ThinkProgress:

In a segment that airs today, talk show host Ellen DeGeneras speaks about the murder of 15-year-old Lawrence King, who was killed by a classmate for being gay. Saying that “we must change our country,” Ellen urges her audience to “check on who you’re voting for” to see if they stand for gay rights:

A boy has been killed and a number of lives have been ruined. And, somewhere along the line the killer, Brandon, got the message that it’s so threatening, so awful, and so horrific that Larry would want to be his Valentine — that killing Larry seemed to be the right thing to do. And when the message out there is so horrible that to be gay, you can get killed for it, we need to change the message. Larry was not a second-class citizen. I am not a second-class citizen. It’s ok if you’re gay.

Ellen's show has posted the video on YouTube. Read the rest of this post...

USDA shuts down congressional civil rights audit

From AP:

The Agriculture Department abruptly ordered congressional auditors to leave its Washington offices this week and told employees not to cooperate with them.

"You are hereby instructed not to meet with any member of the (Government Accountability Office) today, or until this matter is resolved," Michael Watts, head of the department's office of adjudication, wrote to employees Wednesday in an e-mail obtained by The Associated Press.

The auditors were seeking information for an ongoing review of Agriculture's civil rights office, including whether the department had provided false information about the office's progress in handling discrimination complaints.

Read the rest of this post...

Hillary's threatened lawsuit in Texas may be a PR stunt to con the media into thinking she won the state

Texas blog Burnt Orange reports:

There is method to the Clinton campaign's mad preemptive sword rattling over the Texas primary/caucus. They want to delay and disrupt the reporting of the delegate count. They hope that if they win the popular vote, they can avoid, at least for one news cycle, news reports that even if they do so they will very likely lose the delegate fight in Texas and fall further behind Obama in the national delegate contest.

This is not speculation. This has been the subject under discussion. While I have not been part of that discussion, plenty of sources last night and this morning confirmed this as the core of the dispute....

Throw the Texas delegate results in dispute, and win or lose the popular vote, they will have advanced their case that the contest remains close and should go all the way to the convention if necessary....

The Clinton campaign strategy is to justify taking the fight beyond Texas even if they fall further behind Obama in the national delegate count. To do that, they must cast doubt over the fate of the 67 delegates that will be chosen at the caucus level. Hence, their tough positioning in phone calls with Texas Democratic Party officials and others involved in the primary here.

The Texas rules have been in effect for decades. Bill Clinton ran twice under these rules. They are no surprise to anyone, and both campaigns know they have to play by the same rules. There is little point to raising concerns before the election -- except one campaign finds itself running a very unique kind of effort. To remain viable, the results of the caucus in Texas must be thrown into doubt. Almost any legal challenge will do. The Clinton narrative can be maintained-- but only if their falling further behind in delegates is not reported or is at the least cast into doubt for a news cycle, or two or three news cycles.

Read the rest of this post...

Paulson blasts homeowner bailout, overlooks Wall Street bailout

Of course more bailouts of homeowners will reward speculators and I don't like it, but c'mon, what does he think Wall Street has been doing? Just as there is no reason to bail out John Q. Public who speculated on a $500,000+ house, Wall Street speculated with billions, more likely trillions so to listen to this pompous ass howl about bailouts for individuals is laughable. When the Federal Reserve started auctioning off tens of billions to Wall Street banks and discount rates (that have not been transferred to customers) I somehow did not hear Paulson making a fuss. Fed policy today is all about bailing out Wall Street and as discussed, Wall Street is sending hordes of lobbyists to DC to get even more bailout money.

The trashing of the US economy by GOP policy makes my blood boil and listening to Paulson slam other bailouts is just too much. This situation is so far beyond what a taxpayer bailout can even afford but let's not kid ourselves into thinking we haven't already been bailing out Wall Street because we have and Bernanke will continue to do so. Let's not kid ourselves into thinking there is only one bailout plan or for one particular group. Read the rest of this post...

Media finally cluing in on McCain's major campaign finance controversy

It's taken awhile for the media to grasp the severity of the McCain campaign finance scandal. But, it's slowly starting to permeate according to MSNBC's First Read:

*** Money trouble: We’ve noticed today the McCain/FEC stories -- that McCain very well might have to abide by spending limits before the GOP convention -- are starting to roll in. But why is this only now starting to get more traction, compared with all the stories about Obama waffling on his pledge to accept public funds in the general? For one thing, the McCain story is much more complicated; certainly the Obama pledge hedge was an easier one to tell. But is this starting to become a problem for McCain? At the very least, it makes it MUCH more difficult to criticize Obama for waffling on public funds…

Two things:

1) Okay, it is a bit complicated, but not that complicated. The bloggers figured it out pretty quickly -- bottom line: McCain is breaking the laws that he purports to champion. You can read a quick, easy-to-understand, short description of the entire issue here;

2) I actually think it takes the media awhile to get their heads around something that defies their pre-conceived notions. They know John McCain. He talks to them on his bus. He's a nice guy. And, they believe he is the leader on campaign finance reform. So, reporters have to actually think about this, think about the fact that Mr. Nice Guy might actually be breaking the law on his signature issue, and get beyond the herd mentality.

Reporters should be pressuring McCain to release his FEC report for February ASAP. If his total expenditures in this campaign to date exceed the $54 million cap for the primaries, McCain has broken the campaign finance law and committed a crime punishable by five years in prison. McCain and his campaign have no cred on campaign finance. None. Read the rest of this post...

Hillary campaign threatening imminent lawsuit over Texas primary/caucus

Democratic enthusiasm in Texas is unparalleled this year. But, the Clinton campaign may be ready to quash it with a lawsuit questioning the entire primary/caucus process in Texas (which was agreed to by everyone long ago). The Clintons and their advisers are under the misconception that momentum and public sentiment are on their side. It's not. More on the lawsuit from Markos.

Most everyone I talk to acknowledges that it's very close to being over for Hillary. It saddens a lot of my friends who are big Hillary supporters, but the talk all over DC this week isn't whether Hillary can win on Tuesday, it's how she lost the race. When we all wanted Al Gore to keep fighting in 2000, at least he had the entire party and half the country behind him. Not only have even Hillary's supporters acknowledged that it's pretty much over, but if Obama does as well as expected on Tuesday - stopping Hillary from getting the 65% of delegates in both Texas and Ohio that she needs to catch up to Obama - then the superdelegates will start to leave her in droves and party elders will quietly, and perhaps publicly if necessary, start telling her to call it off. She's not going to win. The only remaining question is whether her more strident advisers are going to guarantee that we all lose. Threatening a lawsuit against the Texas Democratic Party isn't the way to win more friends and build a legacy. It's also not the way to win in the fall.

Phillip Martin at Burnt Orange Report put it like this:

A lawsuit about the caucuses would be the most damaging way to proceed with this -- to date -- incredible presidential campaign in Texas.

Hillary has to decide how much damage she wants to do to herself and to all of us. Read the rest of this post...

Clinton's new ad plays the politics of fear: You better be afraid

Saw the new Clinton ad played on the Today Show this morning. Looks like she took the advice of leading neocon Bill Kristol who just this weekend suggested Clinton play the "politics of fear."

Here's the ad-- and you better be afraid:
That "be afraid" strategy is so 2002. It's the mindset that got us into the Iraq war in the first place -- and you recall Senator Clinton voted for Bush's war in Iraq. She also voted last September for the Iran resolution. If Clinton wants to play the fear card and bring up national security, her votes on Iraq and Iran have to be part of the discussion.

The ad actually reminded of those public service announcements back in the 70s and 80s "It's 11 o'clock. Do you know where your children are?"

UPDATE: The ad actually has its origins in the 80s. 1984 to be exact according to Ben Smith. Clinton's ad guy, Roy Spence, did a similar ad for Mondale that year. A lot of these very high paid media consultants really do know only one trick. 1984? Come on. Read the rest of this post...

Friday Morning Open Thread

Good morning.

It's Leap Day. Happy birthday to all those who only get to celebrate every four years.

Should be a wild weekend of campaigning in Ohio and Texas.

Can't wait to see John McCain's FEC report. Right now, he's in the public financing system. The cap for the primaries is $54 million. If McCain exceeds the cap (and he probably has), he's broken the law -- and that is a criminal offense. Maybe, McCain could just plead guilty and get a pardon from Bush.

What are you thinking? Read the rest of this post...

British Army to evacuate Prince Harry after outing by Drudge

Why does Drudge hate the war on terror? Why does he want to put the life of Harry and his Army mates at extra risk? Drudge is an absolute disgrace.

Army commanders were making frantic arrangements last night to bring Prince Harry back from Afghanistan after an American website disclosed that he had been serving with other British troops fighting the Taliban.

The prince, who is 10 weeks into a 14-week tour, was believed to still be in the country last night among British soldiers in the southern Helmand province.

The lid was blown on Harry's deployment yesterday afternoon by the Drudge Report, a US political blog, ending a voluntary agreement by the British media to keep it secret until he had returned. His job in Afghanistan was to monitor Taliban fighters' movements transmitted on to screens nicknamed 'Kill TV'.

Read the rest of this post...

Oil crosses $103 courtesy of Bernanke comments

The weak dollar policy is just crushing consumers and careless comments by Bernanke just don't help. In all likelihood they probably thought they could control the dollar and keep it in a range to help promote exports. It's a misguided policy but certainly one that many subscribe to in politics. Unfortunately for everyone else, the Administration failed in so many other areas and the rug has been pulled from under their feet. They lost any control they had over this situation long ago and the collapsing banking industry is compounding the problem.

When oil tested and broke through the $100 mark, this opened up an entirely new situation. The psychological barrier of crossing $100 is not there any more so it can just as easily push upward to $110 as it can to drop back down to the low $90s. Making matters worse is that the dollar has again become the 98 pound weakling at the beach. It crossed the $1.50 - €1 support level so again, now that it's been crossed it can get worse easier and faster. The end result for Americans: inflation and probably stagflation. Without a fast drop in oil prices (which is of course, possible) along with a jump in income (much less likely) Bernanke and the Fed are implementing policies that are disastrous for most Americans. Read the rest of this post...