Bipartisan deficit deal now rests with Obama and Boehner

I'll let Harry Reid speak for me on that one:

With Vice President Joseph Biden's bipartisan deficit talks suddenly unraveling, all eyes are now turning to the two people ultimately responsible for resolving the partisan standoff on spending and taxes: President Barack Obama and Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio).

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) caught many off guard Thursday by pulling out of Biden’s group, which has been meeting frequently since May 5 to hammer out a massive bipartisan deficit reduction package.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) knocked “the non-adult attitude of Sen. Kyl and Leader Cantor” and said it is now up to top Congressional leaders to get the job done.

"I think it's now, with what Kyl and Cantor's done, I think it's in the hands of the speaker and the president and sadly, probably, me,” Reid said.

We can only hope Harry Reid has a say. Otherwise... Read the rest of this post...

Taibbi on Bachmann: A "six-faced Machiavellian prevaricator" with "Divine Wind" delusions

Michele Bachmann is a fascinating figure, in my view. To all appearances, she's smart, focused, driven, and full-on nuts. Quite the combo.

A taste of Taibbi's prose from his feature Rolling Stone article on her: she's "a religious zealot whose brain is a raging electrical storm of divine visions and paranoid delusions." He documents that, but it's not his main point. There's no way to do justice to the full piece; you'll have to dive into the deep end and read the whole thing.

Many write-ups on his article are quoting the Bachmann-Palin comparison. My teaser slice is this one (my emphasis):

Bachmann's story, to hear her tell it, is about a suburban homemaker who is chosen by God to become a politician who will restore faith and family values to public life and do battle with secular humanism. But by the time you've finished reviewing her record of lies and embellishments and contradictions, you'll have no idea if she actually believes in her own divine inspiration, or whether it's a big con job. Or maybe both are true — in which case this hard-charging challenger for the GOP nomination is a rare breed of political psychopath, equal parts crazed Divine Wind kamikaze-for-Jesus and calculating, six-faced Machiavellian prevaricator. Whatever she is, she's no joke.

Most Bachmann commenters focus on her children, her poll numbers, her crazed crisco-like self-anointing, or her neo-Palin looks. It's the psychopath part that's new in Taibbi's analysis, based on his documentation of her promiscuous lying. For example:

Bachmann's anti-standards crusade led her to her first political run. In 1999, she joined four other Republicans in Stillwater in an attempt to seize control of the school board. The "Slate of Five" proved unpopular: The GOP candidates finished dead last. ... The slate of five had been put together by a local Republican kingpin named Bill Pulkrabek, who this spring was jailed for domestic assault after he allegedly pulled his mistress down a set of stairs by her hair. According to Pulkrabek, Bachmann initially came to him asking for advice on how to defeat Gary Laidig, a moderate Republican state senator, but he advised her to run for the school board first. ... In her later telling of the story, however, Bachmann substituted a higher authority than Bill Pulkrabek. It was God, she insisted, not a girlfriend-abusing politician, who instructed her to get involved in politics. "As if we didn't have enough to do, He called me to run for the Minnesota State Senate," she said in 2006. "I had no idea, no desire to be in politics. None."

In another version of the story told by Bachmann, she ran against Laidig only because a GOP endorsing convention in April of that year spontaneously selected her, prompting yet another Home Alone extreme-surprise moment. "I came in wearing jeans, a sweatshirt and moccasins, and I had no makeup on at all," she said. "I had made not one phone call, and spent not five cents, and I did not solicit a vote." Laidig, who calls Bachmann a "cold and calculating" person, didn't buy it. "Absolute bullshit," he told reporters. "She planned this all along."

Taibbi calls this a kind of lies-for-the-Lord syndrome, where intentions bless deeds. Similar to when former Attorney General John Mitchell was asked by the Watergate committee if he'd kill to get Nixon re-elected, and he answered, "Senator, you ask a hard question." (My paraphrase, but very close.)

Again, a fun read; do check it out.

For my money, Bachmann is positioning herself to be a rinsed-in-Jesus VP handmaiden to the magic-underwear headliner, Mitt Romney, who looks more and more like the only viable GOP candidate in 2012.

They would both benefit, he by the right-wing version of green-washing, which he desperately needs. And she by the obvious leg up.

Again, she's not dumb, just crazy-for-Christ. (Sam Seder shares this view of her target, by the way, as sometimes expressed on his podcast. If nothing else, it makes great political sense.)

GP Read the rest of this post...

Aravosis on Hardball talking Obama and LGBT equality

UPDATE FROM JOHN: What do you know, the President went to a gay/trans fundraiser in New York City in the middle of the biggest gay political debate in that state since Stonewall (they state may pass, or kill, gay marriage in the next few hours) and he didn't give us a lick of support in that battle.  Then what was he doing there taking our money if he can't even support our equality?  In New York, no less.
___________

John was on MSNBC tonight talking about Obama and LGBT equality. HRC's Fred Sainz was apparently on the show to defend the Obama administration. And, as you'll see, Ron Reagan, Jr. was actually a more forceful advocate for LGBT equality than the representative of the biggest LGBT advocacy group. Funny, how only one of those three guests gets paid to actually be an advocate.
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Unemployment claims up, again

And no, the rumored QE3 will not solve this. The problem is not Wall Street's ability to stuff cash in their pockets but rather, jobs for working families. Obama has to quit lending a helping hand to Wall Street and focus a lot more on jobs. Romney certainly has a reputation for being an ax man with jobs but there will be enough people buying his pitch about creating jobs. The battle to create jobs is not going to get any easier between now and November 2012.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits climbed 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 429,000, the Labor Department said. The prior week's figure was revised up to 420,000.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims to edge up to 415,000 from a previously reported count of 414,000.

The claims report covers the survey period for the government's closely watched data on nonfarm payrolls for June.

Claims increased 15,000 between the May and June survey periods, implying little or no gains in nonfarm payrolls this month after a modest 54,000 increase in May.

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Rich now richer than before the economic crisis

Oh we've had class warfare alright. It just wasn't from the left asking for basic health care. Too bad we have a Democratic party that is too blinded by the deep pockets of Wall Street to give a damn about the real class warfare. This new report should not come as a surprise to anyone with open eyes since it's already been discussed and then completely ignored by the political class. Why do we keep voting for these people?

The globe's richest have now recouped the losses they suffered after the 2008 banking crisis. They are richer than ever, and there are more of them – nearly 11 million – than before the recession struck.

In the world of the well-heeled, the rich are referred to as "high net worth individuals" (HNWIs) and defined as people who have more than $1m (£620,000) of free cash.

According to the annual world wealth report by Merrill Lynch and Capgemini, the wealth of HNWIs around the world reached $42.7tn (£26.5tn) in 2010, rising nearly 10% in a year and surpassing the peak of $40.7tn reached in 2007, even as austerity budgets were implemented by many governments in the developed world.

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AARP in "full damage-control mode" after reports they support Social Security benefit cuts

And well they should be. The question is, who's lying, the AARP or the AARP?

It started with this report in the Wall Street Journal (the cached version is here):

AARP, the powerful lobbying group for older Americans, is dropping its longstanding opposition to cutting Social Security benefits, a move that could rock Washington's debate over how to revamp the nation's entitlement programs.

The decision, which AARP hasn't discussed publicly, came after a wrenching debate inside the organization. In 2005, the last time Social Security was debated, AARP led the effort to kill President George W. Bush's plan for partial privatization. AARP now has concluded that change is inevitable, and it wants to be at the table to try to minimize the pain.

"The ship was sailing. I wanted to be at the wheel when that happens," said John Rother, AARP's long-time policy chief and a prime mover behind its change of heart.

And deeper in the article, there's this:

In an early sign of its new approach, AARP declined to join a coalition of about 300 unions, women's groups and liberal advocacy organizations created to fight Social Security benefit cuts. "The coalition's role was to kind of anchor the left, and our role is going to be to actually get something done," said Mr. Rother.

Can you feel the macho thrill in that last phrase?

Well, that was so June 17th. The next day they were "hammered" for their position. Suddenly it's June 21, and according to Politico, the AARP sun now rises in the west:

The phones rang in Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s office just hours after news reports surfaced late last week, asserting that the powerful seniors lobby, AARP, is open to cuts in Social Security benefits.

It was AARP calling — in full damage-control mode — assuring Reid’s office that nothing had changed and that the group remains fully dedicated to protecting Social Security. Hours later, the group issued a statement from its CEO to members of Congress, disputing the reports as “misleading” and saying that the entitlement program should not be used as a “piggy bank” to solve the nation’s fiscal woes.

Good retainers have always been at war with Eastasia.

Not much to add to this report. Note the nondenial — the Journal piece was not wrong, but "misleading". Of course it was; it mislead people toward the actual positions held by the AARP leadership. Bummer that.

The AARP has looked like a suspect organization ever since supporting Bush II's drug "benefit" plan. The AP in 2003:

AARP threw the weight of its 35 million members behind a planned Medicare prescription drug benefit on Monday, handing Republicans a pivotal endorsement as they fight Democratic critics.

And they have not been covered in glory since (see Jon Walker's walk through the history of AARP and SS benefit cuts for more).

As someone suggested (sorry, forgot who), it would be wonderfully fitting if the Boomer generation, which cut its teeth burning draft cards, would cap its last years burning AARP cards.

For those who are action-oriented, here's the mailing address from their contact page. Be firm but polite; and the more you show effort, the more effect you have, so handwritten wins over MS Word, and so on.

AARP
601 E Street, NW
Washington DC 20049

(Oh, and it's easier to mail torn card than burnt ones — in case you trend that way.)

GP Read the rest of this post...

Marriage vote possible in Albany as Obama raises LGBT money in Manhattan (Evolve Already, btw)

Lots of LGBT news today. We think there will be a vote on marriage in the New York Senate tonight. But, Albany being Albany, anything can happen. The GOP Senate conference is meeting to discuss whether to bring the bill to the floor for a vote. The pressure for a vote is intense.

Greg Sargent thinks the anti-marriage side has run out of arguments. And, he's right.

Also, the President is attending an LGBT fundraiser in New York City tonight. Amazing timing, huh? There will be a protest asking Obama to evolve already. That's the new message to the President: Evolve Already.

We're not the only ones asking the President to evolve. The Advocate's Andrew Harmon spoke to several Democratic Senators who urged the President to finally support marriage (while Feinstein wants him to support her DOMA repeal bill.)

And, finally, I want to share something I wrote yesterday at AMERICAblog Gay. 2012 is not 2004. It's good politics for Obama to evolve. He's already behind public opinion:

Every time I see another article where [Campaign Manager Jim] Messina claims the campaign is going after the youth vote, I wonder how'll they'll do that if Obama is opposed to marriage. For example, in Virginia (one of the 2012 battleground states and not a liberal bastion in any way), 73% of 18-29 year old voters support marriage. Not saying all young voters make their choice for President on marriage equality, but it could influence whether some of them actually vote. The current position of the President is dated and looks way out-of-touch -- and it doesn't inspire the base.

When Kerry Eleveld and I hosted Mike Signorile's show on May 3, 2011, one of our guests was Nate Silver who had just written a post titled, "Gay Marriage Opponents Now in Minority." He told us that Obama was already behind the trend of public opinion, "It's too late for [Obama] to get ahead of the trend." But, it's not too late for him to get on the right side of history.

Evolve already, Mr. President. It's the right thing to do on so many levels, including politically.

Now, if only the donors attending the big LGBT fundraiser in NYC tomorrow would convey the same message.....

Really, it's for his own good. Read the rest of this post...

Corporate America sitting on $800 billion

If the financial incentive is there to sit on cash rather than hire, someone in Washington needs to think about how to turn that around and make it worth their while to start hiring again. CNBC:

The current members of the S&P 500 are sitting on about $800 billion in cash and cash equivalents, the most ever, according to data by Birinyi Associates, even as the unemployment rate has ticked back above 9 percent. Most of this cash and cash equivalents are likely yielding at or below the current 3.6 percent annual rate of inflation, giving it a negative real return.

“Companies are still gun shy from the credit crunch,” said Dave Lutz, managing director of trading at Stifel Nicolaus. “And why hire if there is no demand? Stay variable with temporary workers.”

This ultra-conservative outlook runs contrary to what the Federal Reserve said about the economy Wednesday. In its monetary policy statement, the Fed said that it expects energy and other rising costs to abate, causing companies to hire and the economy to recover from its current soft patch.

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Sabato: "Republicans are at least slightly favored to take the Senate"

That will be an absolute disaster.

Jobs jobs jobs.  The White House needs to stop this deficit talk now.  It's the jobs, stupid. Read the rest of this post...

Religious right group calls on GOP Sen. Vitter to follow Weiner’s lead and resign

Weiner committed a virtual indiscretion.  Vitter committed a crime (against law and decorum, I mean having multiple hookers dress you in diapers?)  Why is Weiner resigning but Vitter is staying in office, especially when Vitter claims to be Mr. Family Values?  If Vitter were really for family values he had have called on himself to resign. Of course, Vitter's constituents re-elected him by a wide margin, even after the hooker crime spree.  Which just goes to show you the real morals of family values voters (not much).  From NOLA:

"There are a lot of people that I think are committing outright hypocrisy and are forced to do so as long as he (Vitter) remains in office," said Joe Glover, the president of the Family Policy Network, based in Forest, Va. "I don't think the senator should put those folks in the untenable position of having to pragmatically defend his presence in the Senate."

Glover noted, for example, that House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, and Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, had called on Weiner to resign, but had also contributed to Vitter's 2010 re-election campaign.

"I think their credibility is at stake," said Glover. "I know a lot of times in Washington, pragmatism reigns supreme, but there are some things that are more important than politics and integrity is one of those things."

Read the rest of this post...

Dept. of Energy: "U.S. will release 30 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve"

Interesting news via press release from the Department of Energy (we don't see many press releases from DOE):

U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu announced today that the U.S. and its partners in the International Energy Agency have decided to release a total of 60 million barrels of oil onto the world market over the next 30 days to offset the disruption in the oil supply caused by unrest in the Middle East. As part of this effort, the U.S. will release 30 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). The SPR is currently at a historically high level with 727 million barrels.

“We are taking this action in response to the ongoing loss of crude oil due to supply disruptions in Libya and other countries and their impact on the global economic recovery,” said Energy Secretary Steven Chu. “As we move forward, we will continue to monitor the situation and stand ready to take additional steps if necessary.”

The United States has been in close contact with oil producing and consuming countries about disruptions to the international oil market that could affect the global economy. The situation in Libya has caused a loss of roughly 1.5 million barrels of oil per day – particularly of light, sweet crude – from global markets. As the United States enters the months of July and August, when demand is typically highest, prices remain significantly higher than they were prior to the start of the unrest in Libya.

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Poll: Americans worse off now than when Obama elected

This is a seriously big problem for Obama and 2012. Not that Romney or any of the Republicans have a great story but for them, they are not Obama. Romney may have one of the worst backgrounds for troubled times - a VC guy who profited while throwing workers out on the street - but some could ignore that and only focus on his slick sales pitch that he knows how to run a business. Obama is going to have to dig in a fight to change the current dynamics but we have not seen much of that since the 2008 campaign. Bloomberg:

Fewer than a quarter of people see signs of improvement in the economy, and two-thirds say they believe the country is on the wrong track overall, according to a Bloomberg National Poll conducted June 17-20.

“Gas prices are higher, grocery prices are higher, transportation prices are higher,” says poll respondent Ronda Brockway, 54, an insurance company manager and political independent who lives in a suburb of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. “The jobs situation nationwide is very poor.”

By a 44 percent to 34 percent margin, Americans say they believe they are worse off than when President Barack Obama took office in early 2009, when the U.S. was in the depths of a recession compounded by the September 2008 financial crisis and the economy was losing as many as 820,000 jobs a month.

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Industrial activity in China suggests contraction

Shoppers in the west are not buying the way they used to buy and that's where the big money has been for China. Without very high growth in this sector, the bubble in China will pop and it will get ugly. Rough seas ahead for China.

The HSBC flash manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), the earliest available indicator of China's industrial activity, eased to 50.1 in June, which was the lowest since July 2010 and close to indicating a contraction in the sector.

That compares with the final reading of 51.6 in the HSBC PMI for May. A figure above 50 points to expansion on the month.

"Demand is cooling thanks to the effect of tightening measures and the slackness in external markets," said Qu Hongbin, the chief China economist at HSBC.

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China releases Ai Weiwei

He is probably lucky that he is such a well known artist because otherwise, he could have easily been ignored and gone for much longer. That's the world's favorite business partner in action. BBC News:

He was bailed late on Wednesday after pleading guilty to charges of tax evasion, Xinhua news agency said.

An outspoken critic of China's human rights record, his arrest in April prompted a global campaign for his release.

The 54-year-old said he was back home and in good health in a phone interview with the BBC.

"I am already home, released on bail, I can't talk to media but I am well, thanks for all the media attention," he said.

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Obama confirms surge troops out of Afghanistan in 15 months

As for the other 70,000 troops, that will take longer. What part of "we can't afford wars around the world because they are killing the US economy" is Washington missing? This is hardly the type action one would expect from a candidate who promised to get us out of these inherited wars and who then won a Nobel Peace prize. End the wars, now.

President Barack Obama announced Wednesday night that all the 33,000 additional U.S. forces he ordered to Afghanistan in December 2009 will be home within 15 months.

In a nationally televised address from the East Room of the White House, Obama said 10,000 of the "surge" forces would withdraw by the end of this year, and the other 23,000 would leave Afghanistan by September 2012.

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Gingrich had a second million-dollar line of credit at Tiffany’s

Who needs a second stimulus when we have Newt. Read the rest of this post...