Wash Post: Bush plans to use North Korea and terrorism to scare people into voting Republican

It's nice to know that there is literally no crisis the Republicans won't try to exploit for partisan gain.

...the White House plans to amplify national security issues, especially the threat of terrorism, after North Korea's reported nuclear test, in hopes of shifting the debate away from casualties and controversy during the final month of the campaign. These efforts are aimed largely at prodding disaffected conservatives to vote for GOP candidates despite their unease.

The article adds that the GOP expects to lose as few as 7, and as many as 30, seats in the House. The Dems need 15 to take it back.

In a sign the political environment is getting worse for Republicans, political handicapper Charlie Cook now lists 25 GOP-held seats as a tossup -- seven more than before the Foley scandal broke Sept. 29. Stuart Rothenberg, a nonpartisan expert on House races, has raised to nine the number of GOP seats tilting Democratic or likely to switch hands.

Read the rest of this post...

NYTimes/CBS poll: Bush has 34% approval; 83% think he's "hiding something or mostly lying" about Iraq

The NY Times/CBS poll released this evening reaffirms what the other polls are showing. The Republicans are in trouble:

And with less than a month before Election Day, the Times/CBS News Poll findings suggest that the scandal involving Mr. Foley, a former congressman from Florida, is alienating Americans from Congress, and weakening a Republican Party that was already struggling to keep control of the House and Senate. By overwhelming numbers, including majorities of Republicans, Americans said that most members of Congress do not follow the same rules of behavior as average Americans, and that most members of Congress consider themselves above the law.

This poll is especially bad for Bush. His credibility on Iraq is non-existent:

The public’s view of Iraq is as dark as it’s been since the war began in 2003: two-thirds said it is going somewhat or very badly, while only 3 percent said the war was going very well. Two-thirds said they disapprove of how President Bush is handling Iraq.

Mr. Bush’s job approval has slipped to 34 percent, one of the lowest levels of his presidency, posing a complication for the White House as it seeks to send him out on the road to rally base voters. Mr. Bush’s job approval rating has even slipped with his base: 75 percent of conservative Republicans approve of the way he has handled his job, compared with 96 percent in November 2004.

Mr. Bush clearly faces constraints as he seeks to address the public concerns about Iraq that have shrouded this midterm election: 83 percent of respondents thought that Mr. Bush was either hiding something or mostly lying when he discussed how the war in Iraq was going.

83 percent. That is an amazing number. Americans do not trust their President on the major issue of the day.

And, Bush thinks the North Korea situation is going to help him. Read the rest of this post...

Tom Reynolds (R-NY) chose to keep Don Sherwood (R-PA) in key GOP leadership job after Sherwood allegedly beat and tried to strangle his mistress

Seriously, what do you have to do to lose a leadership position in the Republican party?

We know that preying on children for sexual favors isn't enough.

Not only did Mark Foley remain in the House GOP leadership throughout the 5+ years he was known to be stalking kids, but Foley was permitted to remain the co-chair of the House committee dealing with the issue of missing and exploited children. A position in which he would attend media events in the proximity of scores of abused children. And then we learned yesterday that Foley was thinking of not running again this year, but rather retiring, until Congressman Tom Reynolds (R-NY) begged him to stay earlier this year.

And now the other shoe drops.

I was looking through the AMERICAblog archives for information on Republican Congressman Don "The Choker" Sherwood. You'll recall that he's the 64-year-old very-married gentleman whose 29-year-old mistress frantically called 911 two years ago saying he was trying to strangle her. She also alleged in a lawsuit, that Sherwood settled with her, that Sherwood beat her throughout their five-year affair. The police officer who arrived on the scene after her frantic 911 call took photos of the victim and said that Sherwood should have been arrested on the spot.

Well what do you think I found in our archives? An article dated 2005 from Sherwood's local paper informing us that the National Republican Congressional Committee decided to keep Sherwood in a leadership position even after they learned of Sherwood's alleged attempt to strangle his not-at-all-alleged mistress, a woman he allegedly beat for five years.

And who do you think heads the National Republican Congressional Committee - the committee that gave such a big vote of a confidence to an adulterer who recently had to settle a lawsuit over whether he tried to kill his mistress? None other than Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY). The same man intimately involved in the Mark Foley child sex predator scandal. The same man who practically begged Mark Foley to run again this year, after Foley had sexually preyed on countless underage children.

I think Mr. Reynolds has a few more questions to answer. Read the rest of this post...

Wash. Post/ABC News Poll confirms that Dems. are surging, GOP is tanking

There have been a slew of new polls today all showing good news for Democrats just four weeks before the election. The latest confirmation comes from the Washington Post/ABC News poll which was released within the late this afternoon. According to Broder and Balz, Democrats have "regained a commanding position" for the upcoming election. A look at the numbers explains why:

Congressional approval has plunged to its lowest level in more than a decade (32 percent) and by a margin of 54-35 percent, Americans say they trust Democrats over Republicans to deal with the biggest problems facing the country. Fifty-five percent of those surveyed said congressional Democrats in Congress deserve to be reelected in November, but just 39 percent said Republicans deserve to be returned to office.

The poll measures broad public attitudes and cannot be translated directly into individual House districts, but it sketches an environment that is as difficult for the Republicans as they have faced since they took power in the 1994 elections. By a margin of 54-41 percent, registered voters said they planned to vote for the Democrat over the Republican in House races next month.

Bush has dropped to a 39% approval in this poll. It appears that while the combination of the continuing out of control violence in Iraq and the Foley scandal are bringing down GOP support, Iraq is by far the dominant issue. People just don't trust Bush -- and they don't have confidence in his abilities especially on Iraq. The GOP has never questioned or challenged Bush's "stay the course" strategy and now they are paying a price. Across the panoply of issues, the Republicans are in trouble -- they've even lost support on their favorite political issue -- terrorism:

The new Post-ABC News poll suggests there are few issues Republicans can use to appeal successfully to voters over the next four weeks. When asked which party they trust to handle various issues, Democrats lead on every subject, with margins ranging from 33 percentage points on health care, 19 points for ethics, 17 points for the economy, 13 points each for Iraq and immigration.

Even on terrorism, which Republicans hoped to turn into a powerful issue this fall, Democrats are trusted by six percentage points, reversing an seven-point deficit in the September poll.

Okay, again, there are four weeks til the election. Everyone has to redouble their efforts between now and then to make sure these numbers hold. Read the rest of this post...

Democrats are on the move in USA Today/Gallup poll

At the time of year when polls usually start to tighten, the latest generic poll from USA Today/Gallup shows quite the opposite. Democrats are moving further ahead -- surging even. And, the Republican's leader, George Bush, is in a free fall, too:

Four weeks before congressional elections, a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows Democrats hold a 23-point lead over GOP candidates. That's double the lead Republicans had a month before they seized control of Congress in 1994.

President Bush's approval rating was 37%, down from 44% in a Sept. 15-17 poll. The approval rating for Congress was 24%, down 5 points from last month.

The plummeting GOP ratings in the poll of 1,007 adults, taken Friday through Sunday, come after a series of dismal developments for the party. They include high levels of violence in Iraq; a National Intelligence Estimate that contradicted upbeat administration statements on Iraq; a new Bob Woodward book about internal White House disagreements over Iraq policy, and the Sept. 29 resignation of GOP Rep. Mark Foley hours after reports that he exchanged sexually explicit instant messages with teenage House pages.

Last month's poll showed a bounce for Bush and Republicans following the fifth anniversary of 9/11 and a party-wide focus on terrorism. "Not only is it gone, but the Democrats have momentum," Democratic strategist Anita Dunn said.

She called the Foley scandal "the absolute crystallization for people of everything they dislike about Washington and the congressional Republicans."

The GOP was counting on their 9/11 exploitation to give them a political advantage. Oh well. Bush and the GOP wanted everyone to forget about Iraq. Karl and Ken really thought they could get Iraq out of the news -- and somehow morph that quagmire in to a success in the so-called war on terror. That's not happening. And, the Republican child sex predator scandal and cover-up are adding to their woes. I think the Foley scandal crystallized the bad feelings people were having about Bush and the Republicans.

It's still four weeks til election day. But, these aren't bad numbers to have heading in to the home stretch. Read the rest of this post...

Increasing evidence of an FBI cover-up regarding Foley/GOP sex scandal

Read the rest of this post...

Bush N. Korea policy "a huge mistake," says former top adviser to Vice President George HW Bush

This is interesting, coming from Donald Gregg, the National Security Adviser to George Bush's father when he was vice president under Ronald Reagan.

As an aside, Donald Gregg taught a graduate class I was in at Georgetown. My favorite Donald Gregg quote from class was when he told us "Oliver North's only mistake was taking too many notes." You get the picture - not exactly a flaming liberal.

Why won't the Bush administration talk bilaterally and substantively with NK, as the Brits (and eventually the US) did with Libya? Because the Bush administration sees diplomacy as something to be engaged in with another country as a reward for that country's good behavior. They seem not to see diplomacy as a tool to be used with antagonistic countries or parties, that might bring about an improvement in the behaviour of such entities, and a resolution to the issues that trouble us. Thus we do not talk to Iran, Syria, Hizballah or North Korea. We only talk to our friends -- a huge mistake.

Read the rest of this post...

Foley was ready to leave US House until Cong. Tom Reynolds (R-NY) convinced him to stay and run again

Novak's column today:

Disgraced former Congressman Mark Foley had two excellent job offers in the private sector this year when Rep. Tom Reynolds, National Republican Congressional Committee chairman, talked him into seeking a seventh term.

Although Reynolds says Foley was merely deciding whether to run again, the talk in Republican circles on Capitol Hill was that he was ready to leave Congress.

Republican Capitol Hill sources are the ones telling this to Republican writer Novak. So much for Democrats being the ones behind inflaming this scandal. Read the rest of this post...

Increasingly looking like test was a dud

My friends in the non-proliferation world are pretty confident that this was a failed test. Apparently it would have been difficult for North Korea to test a one-kilo nuke, as the standard -- and what they've always done -- is 20. The test reportedly yielded a sub-kiloton explosion, along with a radiological event, which makes it very likely that North Korea attempted a 20 kilo test and it failed. North Korea is, of course, claiming a successful test, but it's very much in their strategic interest to muddy the waters if the test did fail. (I owe a great debt for this analysis to ArmsControlWonk, which has crashed -- their post from this morning is now cross-posted here.)

HOWEVER. A failed test should not be confused with a victory for the U.S. or the international community -- this event marks a critical time for international diplomacy. The world may have briefly dodged a bullet, but we must take this opportunity to engage and deal with a threat that is clearly growing, though, thankfully, perhaps not quite as much as we thought just a few hours ago.

The whole world is working on how to react to this, and many nations will still look to the U.S. for direction. The North Korean diplomatic position is significantly weakened if, in fact, the test was a failure, which would mean that North Korea does not have a workable nuclear bomb design.

We can either take this opportunity to reengergize diplomacy and realize that we're still on the wrong course with North Korea, or we can continue along the same path that got us here in the first place. We can't let them off the hook, and what we do now may make or break the future of U.S. nuclear security. President Bush, the ball is in your court. Please don't blow it. Read the rest of this post...

Married moms are leaving the GOP in droves

It seems they've had enough.

An Associated Press-Ipsos poll this month found that support is now evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans among married women with children in the house. Republicans won this voting group by 18 percentage points in 2002 and Bush won it by 14 percentage points in 2004....

"Married moms, like Americans in other demographic groups, are much more critical of President Bush, are angry at Washington, are concerned about Iraq and are worried about many other things," said Andrew Kohut. He is director of the Pew Research Center, an independent public opinion organization that also found married moms breaking even.

The AP-Ipsos poll showed that married moms care as much about health care and the economy as they do about terrorism. The situation in Iraq is a greater concern than taxes, Social Security and gas prices.

Read the rest of this post...

North Korea test reverberates around the world

(Note from John: AJ is a former intelligence officer with the US Department of Defense.)

UPDATE: ArmsControlWonk, which is the place for information on proliferation issues and a fantastic resource for science-stupid people like me, says the test was probably a dud. (Check out their analysis, then put the site in your bookmarks, it's consistently great.) So while the test is a failure of U.S. and world diplomacy, it may also have been a huge screwup by North Korea. It's better to claim you have usable nukes and have everybody wonder than prove you don't have them with a failed teset. Developing, as they say . . .

The blowback from North Korea’s nuclear test yesterday is just beginning. China has already made strong statement, calling the test "flagrant and brazen," and Russian President Putin said he "absolutely condemns" the action. Unusually strong statements from nations that have taken a softer line with North Korea . . . until now. UN, EU, and NATO leaders all denounced the test, and for those who don’t speak diplomatese, these are extremely strong statements. Usually diplomatic criticism is a web of impenetrable euphemisms, but not so here, and it seems that the world is essentially united in its horror.

North Korea is easily the most unstable of the nuclear club, and therefore perhaps the most dangerous. Kim Jong Il chose to test on the anniversary of his October 8, 1997 assumption of the titles of General Secretary of the Workers’ Party of Korea and Chairman of the National Defense Commission (the primary center of power in North Korea). The test came at the end of a week in which there was a border skirmish in which shots were fired, the newly-elected (and nationalistic) Japanese Prime Minister visited Seoul, and South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon was widely expected to be elected to succeed Kofi Annan as secretary-general of the UN.

This is a provocation of the highest order, and one that North Korea believes makes strategic sense. It truly believes that the U.S. may invade, and it views nuclear weapons as a significant deterrent against such action. Based on previous U.S. action, that’s not a surprising view, and, ironically considering how we view North Korea, they see U.S. foreign policy as erratic and unpredictable. They see us coddling Pakistan, another military dictatorship with nuclear weapons, and autocracies like Libya and Saudi Arabia, which produce terrorists at a rapid clip, while invading Iraq and isolating Iran.

Let’s call North Korea what it is: a part of President Bush's Axis of Failure. Since he bizarrely linked North Korea, Iran, and Iraq nearly a half-decade ago, North Korea has acquired nuclear capabilities, Iran has become more militant and more powerful, and we've turned Iraq into a terrorist-producing failed state. Axis of Failure. North Korea is the product of miserably failed policy, and now we’re seeing the results of the incoherent and ineffective Bush doctrine. From the assessment of North Korea at the newly-launched National Security Network, which is a good resource for brief and pointed policy papers on hot-button issues:

President Bush claimed he would not tolerate a nuclear North Korea, but he has done worse than that: he ignored the threat of North Korea as it expanded its nuclear arsenal . . . Another two years of the same flawed policy will only exacerbate the nuclear threat.

North Korea has a despicable regime, and its people suffer incredibly. It is impossible, unfortunately, to know whether regime change would be a net gain; predictions of massive regional destabilization, millions of refugees, and the new question of nuclear control makes for an incredibly difficult diplomatic and security situation. Further, I have no confidence that the Bush administration has the ability to handle it appropriately. This is a complex issue, but the bottom line is that President Bush abandoned a North Korea strategy that was on the right track in favor of vague threats and increased pressure. But much like the "plan" for Iraq, there was no discernable end-game. From Josh Marshall (specific link broken at the moment, will try to update):

Talking tough is great if you can make it stick and back it up; it is always and necessarily cleaner and less compromising than sitting down and dealing with bad actors. Talking tough and then folding your cards doesn't just show weakness it invites contempt. And that is what we have here. The Bush-Cheney policy on North Korea was always what Fareed Zakaria once aptly called "a policy of cheap rhetoric and cheap shots." It failed. And after it failed President Bush couldn't come to grips with that failure and change course. He bounced irresolutely between the Powell and Cheney lines and basically ignored the whole problem hoping either that the problem would go away, that China would solve it for us and most of all that no one would notice.

The Axis of Failure continues. Read the rest of this post...

George Bush is cranky and "ticked off big-time"

The President is mad, really, really mad according to the NY Daily News. He and Laura thought things were going well after they exploited "September the 11th" again. Now, between the Foley Republican child sex predator scandal and the Woodward book "State of Denial," W is having a melt-down:

Now, however, friends, aides and close political allies tell the Daily News Bush is furious with his own side for helping create a political downdraft that has blunted his momentum and endangered GOP prospects for keeping control of Congress next month.

Some of his anger is directed at former aides who helped Watergate journalist Bob Woodward paint a lurid portrait of a dysfunctional, chaotic administration in his new book, "State of Denial."

In the obsessively private Bush clan, talking out of school is the ultimate act of disloyalty, and Bush feels betrayed from within.

"He's ticked off big-time," said a well-informed source, "even if what they said was the truth."

The Daily News reports that "steam coming out of [Bush's] ears" over the Foley scandal.

Our president sounds like he is coming unglued.

Hat tip to Taegan at Political Wire for this one...it's good. Read the rest of this post...

After Rove aide resigns over Abramoff scandal, major questions remain about Abramoff/White House contacts

Late of Friday, the White House dropped the news that Karl Rove's aide had to quit because of Abramoff. They wanted to bury the story that Abramoff tentacles ran so deep in to the White House:

A top aide to White House strategist Karl Rove resigned yesterday after disclosures that she accepted gifts from and passed information to now-convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff, becoming the first official in the West Wing to lose a job in the influence-peddling scandal.

Rove's aide, Susan Ralston, used to work for Abramoff. She wasn't the only person in the West Wing to have close contacts with the disgraced, corrupt lobbyist. The full story of Abramoff's relationship with Karl Rove and then-political director Kenh Mehlman hasn't been told. Today's NY Times editorial wants to know more -- so do we:

It is plain that Mr. Abramoff had unusual access. As for his effectiveness, Mr. Abramoff rated the results as “mixed.” But he scored some important victories. In 2002, for example, the administration made the unusual decision to release $16.3 million to a Mississippi tribe Mr. Abramoff represented, notwithstanding the Justice Department’s opposition to the project. The role campaign gifts and contacts between Mr. Abramoff and Mr. Mehlman may have played in this action is a matter warranting close scrutiny by prosecutors, and further digging by the committee.

As Tom Davis of Virginia, the Republican chairman of the committee, and Henry Waxman of California, the ranking Democrat, take pains to note, their report is based on documents that were provided under subpoena by Mr. Abramoff’s firm and, for the most part, tell just one side of the story. The White House spin is that Mr. Abramoff had a well-known affinity for exaggerating the impact of his lobbying efforts. If so, full disclosure of relevant records by the White House could help support that claim. Meanwhile, the idea that Mr. Abramoff exerted no influence with the administration seems about as believable as Mark Foley’s early claim that his only interest in 16-year-old pages was “mentoring.”

This White House lies about everything. There's no reason to think they're not lying about Abramoff. Actually, given the shenanigans involved, there is every reason to think they are lying. Read the rest of this post...

Monday Morning Open Thread

So North Korea has nukes now. Of course, the Today gave 90 seconds to that, then ran a long segment on the latest Foley development about Kolbe knowing 6 years ago.

Is there anything that Bush and the GOP haven't totally screwed up? The failed President and his corrupt, inept Congress have done a number on this country.

Let's get it started... this should be another interesting week. Read the rest of this post...

US troop casualties rapidly increasing

And for what? Where is this going? The Bush team has lost the confidence of the American public due to spin, twisting and general incompetence and arrogance, so where do we go from here?

Figures released by the Pentagon show that 776 soldiers were wounded in action in Iraq last month.

The September figure represents the fourth largest casualty rate since the US and UK invasion in the spring of 2003 and the largest since November 2004 when US forces were involved in a major offensive to clear the city of Fallujah. Some experts believe the number of wounded provides a better insight to the nature of the conflict in Iraq than the figure of 2,700 killed because - in relation to previous wars - many more wounded troops survive.

The ratio of wounded to killed is 8 to 1, compared with 3 to 1 during the Vietnam War. Anthony Cordesman, of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, told The Washington Post: "These days wounded are a much better measure of the intensity of the operations than killed."

Read the rest of this post...

Haven't we been here before?

And before...and before...and before...and before...and before. US troops fighting the al Sadr militia again. I recall many suggesting this was going to happen during the early stand off but the US simply did not have the troops to take this guy on so they backed off only to re-fight the al Sadr militia over and over. Why does Bush not want America to win in Iraq? Read the rest of this post...

North Korea: member of the Bush administration Axis of Failure tests nuke

(Note from John: AJ is a former intelligence officer with the US Department of Defense.)

North Korea's claim of a successful nuclear test is certain to reverberate around the world. Some very, very brief history for this quick analysis (and I promise a fuller assessment tomorrow):

Sunday was considered a likely test date because Kim Jong Il assumed the titles of General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea and Chairman of the National Defense Commission, which is the primary center of power in North Korea, on October 8, 1997. The situation was increasingly tense over the past week, as North Korea floated the possibility that it might test, then there was a border skirmish in which shots were fired and accusations exchanged (though no injuries), and the newly-elected Japanese Prime Minister arrived in Seoul today. As if things weren't complicated enough already, members of the UN Security Council are widely expected to select South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon to succeed Kofi Annan as secretary-general of the UN on Monday night. Those are your fun water-cooler factoids for tomorrow. Reports are filtering in that South Korean officials confirmed reports of a test, and after initial claims that no relevant seismic activity was detected, it now looks like such an event was identified. The story is only about an hour old, but right now it appears legitimate.

As for policy, China is going to lose its collective mind over this, but it will do so relatively quietly. South Korea and Japan will be extremely unhappy, and they'll express their dissatisfaction publicly. South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun has, not surprisingly, called an emergency meeting of principals, and with Japan's Prime Minister already in the country, the two nations will be working closely. The UN is likely to take some kind of punitive action, though I'm not sure what options it has left to further isolate what is perhaps the most solitary nation in the world. The test comes as North Korea was acting increasingly desperate and erratic. The government's behavior is a reflection of considerations including sanctions, regional calculations, and a healthy dose of just plain crazy.

All of this, of course, comes after years of the Bush administration alternately mismanaging and ignoring the North Korea situation. President Bush claimed he would not tolerate a nuclear North Korea, but he has done worse than that: he ignored the threat of North Korea as it expanded its nuclear arsenal, and was unable to offer the appropriate carrots and sticks to prevent this hugely destabilizing event. Shameful.

Again, I'll have more tomorrow, but for the moment, this much is clear: this is a diplomatic, security, and non-proliferation failure... and perhaps disaster. Read the rest of this post...