Whenever I see people pontificating about "growth rates" and "cumulative increases," I am always suspicious. Even more so right now, with the heated health care debates, and yesterday's
insurance company broadside against reform. The insurance industry cites some pretty scary numbers. But one thing they trained me to do when I became an economist was how to use a calculator. In short, I can do arithmetic, unlike some of the people in press and, apparently, some of the people in the health insurance industry. (Though in an industry like insurance, which relies so totally on statistics, one has to wonder whether the problem is on the arithmetic side or the honesty side.)
Point one: When the Washington Post reports that "cumulative increases" in your insurance premiums over the 2010-2019 period (a decade) amount to an extra $20,700 under the Baucus plan, it sounds bad. But the average annual increase is one tenth as much. That's still an increase, but it doesnt sound nearly so shocking. A general rule for evaluating ANY of these numbers is to always use a constant yardstick. The standard yardstick for most people is annual cost and/or annual growth rate. In fact, that is what federal law requires lenders to disclose when you do something like sign a mortgage or a car loan.
Point two: So let's go ahead and let our calculator tell us what those annual rates are. If we take the word of the National Coalition on Health Care, that the average cost of an employer-based family-of-four's policy is $13,400 right now (and there is no reason to doubt this - they are non-partisan, and their estimates are in line with other independent observers) - then we can easily calculate some growth rates based on the numbers cited in the scary insurance company report.
The insurance companies say that under the current system the same policy that costs $13,400 today will cost $15,500 in 2013, for a four year annual average growth rate of 3.7%. Contrast that with what would allegedly happen if the Baucus bill passes - a cost of $17,200 for an average annual growth rate of 6.4%. After the jump, I'll explain why, in fact, the insurance industry's own analysis shows that we do better under the Baucus bill than the status quo.
The insurance companies also give some numbers for 10 years out in 2019 - when they say a policy for a family will cost $21,900 under current law and $25,900 if the bill passes, for annual average growth rates of 5% if we do nothing and 6.8% if we pass the bill.
So this led me to a natural question: How fast have these same premia been growing over the PAST ten years under the current system? Answer - 8.7% per year. That's actually less of an increase than what the insurance industry claims you would see under the Baucus bill. (And in all fairness, it is to the insurance industry's advantage to overestimate the amount of increase caused by the Baucus bill - so even in their worst case scenarios, passing health care reform legislation would still cut your premia as compared to doing nothing.)
If we take only the past five years, the annual average growth rate is 6.1%. And it is important to remember that these are rates for an average family of four in an employer sponsored plan - anyone who is buying insurance as an individual has seen far far higher rates, not just growing by double digits annually, but often by more than 20% in a year. (NOTE FROM JOHN: My rates go up around 25% a year.)
Am I the only one to think they are just pulling numbers out of their asses? One thing I DO believe - the insurance industry is going to keep raising the cost of health insurance at a healthy clip (for them) unless we do something to hold them back.
(NB... Here is a fun math trick. If you want to know approximately how many years it will be until your premiums double, just take the annual average growth rate and divide it into 72. (Dont ask me why this works - I dont know). So, if your insurance premia are growing by 20% a year, divide 72 by 20 and get 3.6, and in 3.6 years your premia will have doubled. If they grow by 7% each year they will double in a little over a decade (72/7=10.3 years). And John's rates, which go up around 25% a year, will double in under three years.)
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