Video: Americans overwhelmingly want to see Romney's tax documents

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The issue of Mitt Romney's taxes has gone away for the moment, but refuses to go away. If Romney has any hope of winning, he has to follow his father's example and release the documents. It's the American way. Read the rest of this post...

Nate Silver: Obama's chances for re-election now 80 percent

Nate Silver in the NYT:

The question now is not whether Mr. Obama will get a bounce in the polls, but how substantial it will be.

Some of the data, in fact, suggests that the conventions may have changed the composition of the race, making Mr. Obama a reasonably clear favorite as we enter the stretch run of the campaign.

On Saturday, Mr. Obama extended his advantage to three points from two points in the Gallup national tracking poll, and to four points from two in an online survey conducted by Ipsos. He pulled ahead of Mitt Romney by two points in the Rasmussen Reports tracking poll, reversing a one-point deficit in the edition of the poll published on Friday.

A fourth tracking poll, conducted online by the RAND Corporation’s American Life Panel, had Mr. Obama three percentage points ahead of Mr. Romney in the survey it published early Saturday morning; the candidates had been virtually tied in the poll on Friday. (The RAND survey has an interesting methodology — we’ll explore it more in a separate post.)

Nate goes on to note that Obama's bounce is based on incomplete polling - the polling included days before the Democratic Convention began and/or before Clinton spoke. So if you extrapolate from there, Obama's bounce is even greater:

Over all, that means that only about 30 percent of the data from the Gallup poll post-dated Mr. Clinton’s remarks.

If you do the math, it implies that Mr. Obama must have been leading Mr. Romney by 10 or 11 points in the minority of the poll conducted since Mr. Clinton’s speech for him to have gained three points in the survey over all.

In the table below, I’ve run through the same calculation for the other tracking polls. The results imply that Mr. Obama has run about nine points ahead of Mr. Romney in the portion of the Ipsos poll conducted since Mr. Clinton’s speech, about eight points ahead in the RAND poll, and about four points ahead in the Rasmussen poll.

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Pizza guy lifts Obama off the ground

Very cool photos.  Though I'm a bit surprised the guy was able to do this without being slammed to the ground by 12 Secret Service guys. Read the rest of this post...

Paul Ryan thinks America is in decline, wants to close Romney's tax loopholes

Two things.

1. I think it's fascinating that Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan think America is no longer great, but rather, is a country in decline. Never thought I'd see the day a Republican would diss America.

During a campaign event yesterday in Kissimeee, Fla., Obama rejected the GOP assertions that America is in decline.

"Now, I don't know whether they're saying that just because they want to win some votes, or because they actually believe it," Obama said, before touting American workers, enterprenuers, scientists and educators "But either way, they're wrong."

2. I'm also fascinated that Paul Ryan is complaining about rich people who shelter income via tax loopholes when his running mate, Mitt Romney, is rumored to not have paid taxes for ten years, because of such loopholes. Yet Romney won't release his tax returns, like every other presidential candidate has done for decades, including Romney's father.

While Ryan stressed that the GOP presidential ticket would close loopholes used by high-income earners, he declined to specify which would be closed to make the tax system fairer.
"Now the question is, not necessarily what loopholes go, but who gets them. High-income earners use most of the loopholes. That means they can shelter their income from taxation," Ryan said on ABC.

"But if you take those loopholes, those tax shelters away from high income earners ... that allows us to lower tax rates on everybody," Ryan said.

And of course, Ryan can't say which tax loopholes they'd plug, because Romney/Ryan have zero details about what they actually plan to do. They simply have no ideas.
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New Gallup poll, bounce continues: Obama gains another point

Bouncy bouncy bouncy. Read the rest of this post...

Discount airline CEO calls customer "stupid" for not printing ticket

Keeping in mind that Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary is known for making noise (including when he talked about including bjs on their planned long-haul flights) but he's also been on the leading edge with many airline trends such as add-on fees. When you fly Ryanair, if you fail to print out your ticket at home, they slap on extra charges which are not insignificant.

The day when the big airlines do the same may be coming, so the story is very relevant to those who travel a lot. I completely stopped printing my own tickets after it took me days to make a simple change. Because I had already printed my ticket at home (rather than via a kiosk at the airport) it was a long, painful process to make what should have been an easy change to my ticket. Once that ticket is printed at home, it presents problems for the airline (and security) since in theory, it should get you through the initial entry at the airport.

Most of the airline industry still hasn't figured out how to make money so the day of charging to print tickets at the airport may not be too far off. As long as the political class lets them get away with it, the industry will continue nickle-and-diming customers, because they can.

The Ryanair chief executive recently admonished passengers, who fail to print boarding passes before arriving at the airport.

The issue came to a head after a mother of two — Suzy McLeod — paid about $380 at the airport in August so her family could get the paperwork to fly home to Britain from Spain. Upset about the fee, she vented on Facebook and received hundreds of thousands of "likes," according to an NBCNEWS.com report.

O'Leary responded. "We think Mrs. McLeod should pay 60 euros for being so stupid," he told The Telegraph. (McLeod was charged 60 euros each for five boarding passes, or about 300 euros total.)

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Texas going purple?

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Anyone who followed the DNC last week now knows who Julian Castro is. My initial thought was that while he had an interesting story, how likely is it that any Democrat will have a chance in a Blue State such as Texas? Winning locally is one thing, but statewide in this day and age? There hasn't been a big win there for Democrats in years.

During the convention there was an interesting panel discussion that discussed the impact of Latinos in politics. The discussion included Latino politicians and Latino media. I've spent a bit of time recently in Texas so was interested in hearing about the transformation of that die-hard Republican state. Many expect Texas to shift to a purple state in the next 6-8 years.

It's hard to imagine Texas being competitive again but that day is not too far off. Even with this shift, Texas certainly is not going to be a progressive state such as the Northeast or West Coast. It's better than nothing though even the mainstream Democrats around the country are conservative (corporatists) compared to a few years ago.

One could also argue that Texas Democrats are doing what they need to do in order to win and that they may transform once their position is more secure. Perhaps, but time will tell. Read the rest of this post...

The Pogues - Dirty Old Town

I've had my coffee and after a very long day of travel from Charlotte back to Paris, I'm finally home again. Even better, it's actually sunny and warm here though not miserably muggy as it was in Charlotte.

Compared to the 2008 DNC in Denver, Charlotte did a nice job of organizing. It was relatively easy to get around and everyone was friendly and helpful. The weather was extremely unpleasant (unless you like heat and disgustingly high humidity) but that happens at this time of the year. They had police support from all over the country (lots from Chicago) yet the coordination appeared to be pretty good. Unlike Denver, where you had to walk forever due to the security fortresses, Charlotte was a breeze.

On the downside, Charlotte isn't my kind of city and I found it to be like an overgrown suburb and with the soul and character of a suburb. Nothing really defines the city from what I could see and it was too generic for my liking. Austin, which is somewhat similar in size, has much more character in various neighborhoods, including close to downtown. But hey, there aren't many Austin-like cities out there.

Above and beyond just Charlotte, I was reminded again of the American fixation with police on the street. Compared to the UK or Europe, you see police everywhere in the US. One morning I saw five police cars on the highway during the 30 minute drive. I did wonder if this was South Carolina's local hospitality to the Democrats (our hotel was in SC) but that's another subject. During my ten hour drive from the south this summer in France, I saw one patrol car. For whatever reason, we seem to love seeing police everywhere in the US. Read the rest of this post...