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Election

6 Conservatives Who Think The Media Is Fixing The Polls For Obama

With six weeks until Election Day, new polling from Quinnipiac, the New York Times and CBS News shows President Obama leading in crucial swing states including Ohio, Florida and Iowa. As Obama’s lead grows, so does the number of conservatives who claim polls in general are biased and cannot be trusted. Similar to their dismissal of fact-checkers who flagged lies in Romney’s ads and Paul Ryan’s convention speech, conservatives are now claiming the media outlets that conduct the polls are attempting to discourage Republicans from voting by falsely tipping the polls toward Democrats.

Helping this narrative along is a new website, Unskewed Polls, which claims, after liberal media bias is removed, Romney is in fact beating Obama by a wide margin in every poll. Business Insider unpacked how the website is manipulating data to come up with a Romney victory.

Nicknamed “poll sample truthers” by Dave Weigel, the skeptics are falling over each other to explain how the numbers are lying:

Erick Erickson
Erickson, Editor-in-Chief of RedState.com and CNN political contributor, accuses the media of a “confirmation bias” that makes them conform their data to what they want: “The polls are confirming what the press thinks and that they have a larger than 2008 Democratic turnout is of no consequence to them.”

John McLaughlin
The Republican pollster explains the poll conspiracy: “The Democrats want to convince [these anti-Obama voters] falsely that Romney will lose to discourage them from voting. So they lobby the pollsters to weight their surveys to emulate the 2008 Democrat-heavy models. They are lobbying them now to affect early voting. IVR [Interactive Voice Response] polls are heavily weighted. You can weight to whatever result you want.”

Hugh Hewitt
Radio host Hugh Hewitt thinks the CBS/Quinnipiac/NYT poll is “junk”, choosing instead to focus on Rasmussen and Gallup’s daily polls, which have Obama leading by a smaller margin. These polls, he says, amounts to “lots of evidence this morning that their campaign is in terrific shape.”
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Alyssa

Why Iran’s Oscar Boycott Isn’t Really About ‘Innocence of Muslims’

Word comes from the New York Times that, a year after Iran won its first Academy Award for Asghar Farhadi’s A Separation, Iran will boycott the Academy Awards in protest of “Innocence of Muslims,” a crude film about the prophet Muhammad that may not even exist as a feature film:

The boycott appears straightforward: Mohammad Hosseini, Iran’s culture minister, on Tuesday confirmed that his country would not submit a film for consideration at next year’s Oscars in protest of “Innocence of Muslims,” the anti-Islam YouTube video that has sparked deadly riots. He specifically cited the “failure” of Oscar organizers to take an official position on the incendiary “film.”

But Iran’s move left Hollywood scratching its head. Iran, which won the Academy Award for best foreign language film earlier this year, was seriously going to boycott moviedom’s biggest prize because the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences hadn’t denounced a crude YouTube video made by a former gas station owner? (The academy had no comment.)

It’s hard to know what Iran thinks it will accomplish with this move. Is it to shame an industry that, by all accounts, is deeply embarrassed by the incident? It’s not as if Paramount, which built the old JAG set Innocence of Muslims was shot on, needs Iran’s boycot to think more carefully about where its sets end up and what that means for their brand. It’s not as if the actors involved in the movie, one of whom has already sued over the deceptive use of her image and work, aren’t horrified by how their performances were dubbed and distorted to produce a crude project that didn’t resemble what they’d signed on for. It’s not as if the highest authorities in the United States haven’t condemned the man who made it for his provocations, while still defending his right to free speech. And if Iran thinks it’s going to challenge the American focus on free speech, muzzling itself and its own filmmakers seems like a poor way of making that argument, one that perhaps overestimates Iran’s influence on the Academy and American consumers.

But this actually strikes me as a move that’s aimed more internally than externally. Farhadi and the members of his crew who accompanied him to the Academy Awards, wore neckties, which were banned as a symbol of Western decadence after the Iranian Revolution, to the ceremony. He used his acceptance speech to draw a rather careful distinction between the Iranian people and their government, saying that he knew Iranians would celebrate his win “because at the time when talk of war, intimidation and aggression is exchanged between politicians, the name of their country Iran is spoken here through her glorious culture. A rich and ancient culture that has been hidden under the heavy dust of politics. I proudly offer this award to the people of my country. A people who respect all cultures and civilizations and despise hostility and resentment.” Iran may not have been particularly eager to have another director take the stage again, perhaps emboldened by Farhadi’s reception.
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Economy

After Nearly A Decade Of Declines, Manufacturing Jobs Begin Rebound

After nearly a decade of steep declines, American manufacturing jobs have begun to rebound since the beginning of the Obama administration, as the slide that occurred under President George W. Bush and during the Great Recession has largely been reversed.

Manufacturing slumped in the first year of the Obama administration as the nation dealt with the effects of the recession, but since then, manufacturing has posted job gains in all but three months since February 2010, as Bloomberg Government reports:

The BGOV Barometer shows U.S. factory positions have grown since early 2010, arresting a slide that began toward the end of the 1990s. It’s the best showing since the era of Bill Clinton, the only president in the last 30 years to leave office with more factory jobs than when he began.

The gain in manufacturing jobs is certainly helpful, it is one way to show we’re moving forward,” said Terry Madonna, a political science professor and director of the Franklin & Marshall College poll in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. “President Obama has to create a psychology all over the country that things are getting better. This is a piece explaining that idea.”

Obama took over at a time when manufacturing was at one of its lowest historical points, and the decline continued through the early part of his term thanks to the recession. The rebound, however, began with manufacturing production, which turned around in the wake of the stimulus package passed in the opening months of Obama’s term, and jobs began to follow. The automobile industry has also shown sustained job growth, making manufacturing one of the most positive sectors in the nation’s economic recovery.

NEWS FLASH

World Leaders Strike Deal To Reduce Price of Contraception | Coinciding with World Contraception Day, former President Bill Clinton announced on Wednesday a new agreement that will reduce the price of long-acting birth control for millions of women worldwide. The trade deal, announced jointly with the Clinton Foundation and several world leaders at the UN, will cut the price of Bayer-manufactured progestrogen implants by half or more in exchange for a six-year purchasing commitment. Clinton described the arrangement as “a very big deal, and it will play itself out over and over again in the lives of citizens who will be safe, who will have healthier families and who will live longer lives.” — Nate Niemann

Economy

Romney’s Tax Rate Lower Than Any President’s Since Nixon

Mitt Romney is worth double the sum of the last eight presidents’ wealth, but he has paid one of the lowest tax rates. According to Joseph Thorndike at Tax Analysts, only President Richard Nixon paid a lower tax rate, at 6.1 percent, in the last 40 years.

The chart below compares Romney’s relatively low tax rate to recent presidents including Barack Obama, George W. Bush, and Bill Clinton, who each paid above 20 percent:

Since much of Romney’s income comes from investments, the low 15 percent capital gains tax rate saved him $1.2 million in taxes in the last year. Romney’s tax return dump on Friday confirmed that his 14.1 percent tax rate is lower than than many middle class Americans’ tax rates.

The precedent for presidential candidates to release their tax returns began after Nixon drew fire for paying a mere 0.3 percent tax rate from 1970 to 1972. Nixon’s tax avoidance became a point for controversy in his administration, since Nixon took “extremely aggressive efforts at keeping it low,” particularly, a charitable deduction for donating his vice presidential papers.

Romney’s returns show he didn’t claim $1.8 million in charitable deductions last year; doing so would have dropped his rate to 9 percent. Meanwhile, both Romney’s proposed tax plan and the one proposed by his vice presidential nominee would allow him to pay even less in taxes.

Election

Chief Of Cherokee Nation Blasts Brown Staffers: ‘Downright Racist’

The Principal Chief of the Cherokee Nation on Wednesday released a statement condemning the employees of Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) after a video surfaced of three campaign staffers mocking Brown’s opponent’s Native American heritage.

“The conduct of these individuals goes far beyond what is appropriate and proper in political discourse,” said Chief Bill John Baker in his statement, “The use of stereotypical ‘war whoop chants’ and ‘tomahawk chops’ are offensive and downright racist.”

Baker called on Brown to “apologize for the offensive actions of his staff and their uneducated, unenlightened and racist portrayal of native peoples,” and said, “A campaign that would allow and condone such offensive and racist behavior must be called to task for their actions.”

Warren’s Cherokee and Delaware Native American ancestry has been a frequent line of attack for Brown, with the campaign even running ads on the topic. The Senator did say Tuesday, however, that he did not “condone” their actions.

Politics

Who Needs Evidence? Congressman Pins Blame For Capitol Hill Burglaries On Undocumented Immigrants

Rep. Elton Gallegly (R-CA)

Police on Capitol Hill are investigating a slew of thefts from House Members’ offices. The burglaries take place at night and the perpetrators usually steal “personal mementos and Congressional memorabilia that could be sold online.” The police say they “continue to investigate the thefts,” but at least one Republican Congressman already has his culprit: undocumented immigrants. Rep. Elton Gallegly (R-CA) tells Roll Call that maintenance staff with questionable immigration statuses may be responsible for the burglaries:

Gallegly said he was told Monday that officials suspect the perpetrators are contractors on the maintenance or facilities teams who work in the Capitol after hours and who have keys to all the Members’ offices. Many of them, Gallegly continued, are not given background checks under the e-verify program, the workplace verification system that seeks to verify whether a job applicant is in the country legally.

“Is it possible people are working in the U.S. Capitol who have a key to my office, who have no legal rights to be here in the United States? Well, that’s possible,” Gallegly said. “That’s very unsettling.”

Law enforcement officials on Capitol Hill insist they are still on the case.

Gallegly says that “every desk drawer in his Washington office had been ransacked, with money stolen if there was any to take, along with anything bearing a Congressional logo or seal.” His collection of state licence plates was also taken.

The California congressman has a long record of voting against immigrants. In 1996, he attached an amendment to a bill that “would permit the states to deny unauthorized alien children free K-12 public education,” has voted to report undocumented immigrants who receive hospital treatment, and opposed deportation waivers that would have permitted parents to stay with their children.

Greg Noth contributed to this post.

Politics

100 Million Could Die Due To Climate Change By 2030

100 million people could die as a result of climate change by 2030, a new report from DARA, a nonprofit institute based in Spain, concludes. Climate change already contributes to “400,000 deaths on average each year,” mainly due to “hunger and communicable diseases that affect above all children in developing countries,” while “an estimated 4.5 million deaths each year [are] linked to air pollution, hazardous occupations and cancer.”

These numbers will increase substantially by the end of the next decade, with “developing countries and above all the world’s poorest groups” seeing the greatest impacts. As the graphic below demonstrates, the low-emission country group “experiences approximately 40 percent of all its economic losses, and over 80 percent of all climate change-related mortality”:

Climate-fueled extreme weather is already taking an economic toll on the United States. 220 people have died so far this year from weather-related events, and the expected cost ranges upward of $55 billion.

Election

GOP Lawmaker Who Called For Akin To Drop Out Now Supporting Him

Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO) released a statement Tuesday backing Senate candidate Rep. Todd Akin (R-MO), a little less than a month after publicly calling for an end to his campaign after Akin’s “legitimate rape” debacle. Akin withstood the clamoring of many Republican lawmakers and fundraisers to stay in the race. But his party seems to be making their peace with him now that the official deadline for his withdrawal has passed. Blunt echoed Newt Gingrich, who exhorted Republicans to overlook Akin’s comments and support him because of a “moral obligation” to win a majority in the Senate.

In August, Blunt told MSNBC he hoped Akin would withdraw:

Todd needs to get out of this race…it’s not helpful. He’s a person who I think will ultimately look at this and try to figure out the greater good. I didn’t say I was confident … I’m hopeful he will and I believe he will. He’s an engineer, he’s a quantitative guy. I think at some point you have to add up the columns here, and my belief is that by anyway you add them up, they don’t add up.

On Tuesday, Blunt embraced Akin in a statement:

Congressman Akin and I don’t agree on everything, but he and I agree the Senate majority must change. From Governor Romney to the county courthouse, I’ll be working for the Republican ticket in Missouri, and that includes Todd Akin.

The Missouri Republican Party has also changed its mind about Akin. After the August deadline to drop out passed, Party Chariman David Cole sent a memo to the Republican State Committee warning that Akin “posed a threat” and reassuring them there was still time to change his mind:

It has become increasingly clear that Congressman Akin’s comments over the weekend are not just a distraction—they pose a threat to our Party’s chances of retaking control of the US Senate and impact other races here in Missouri…This afternoon, Congressman Akin stated that he intends to remain in the race. While one may question the wisdom of this choice, there will still be time for the Congressman to reevaluate his decision in the coming days. Despite today’s widely-reported 5:00 deadline for Congressman Akin to withdraw from the race, Missouri statute allows for candidates to withdraw at a later date, so there will still be time for him to reconsider his current decision to continue his campaign.

Now, it seems, Cole has decided to make the best of Akin’s refusal to drop out:

Just like all of our GOP candidates elected in the August primary, the Missouri Republican Party stands behind Congressman Todd Akin in his race for United State Senate. Claire McCaskill is far too liberal for Missouri—voting with Barack Obama 95% of the time since 2010 and supporting every major piece of his reckless agenda. We are confident that Todd will defeat McCaskill in November, and the Missouri Republican Party will do everything we can to assist in his efforts.

Blunt also serves as a liasion between Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign and the Senate Republicans. Romney previously said Akin should drop out of the race, but former rival Gingrich recently predicted Romney would come around and support Akin. Sen. Jim DeMint’s (R-SC) super PAC, the Senate Conservatives Fund, is also preparing to back Akin now that he has agreed to change his position on an earmark ban the Fund supports. Rick Santorum has also announced that he is backing Akin, and may donate to his campaign through the Patriot Voices PAC.

Karl Rove’s Crossroads GPS and the National Republican Senatorial Committee have claimed they will not raise money for his campaign.

Update

The National Republican Senatorial Committee, which previously said it would not invest in Akin’s campaign if he stayed in the race, released the following statement: “There is no question that for Missourians who believe we need to stop the reckless Washington spending, rein-in the role of government in people’s lives, and finally focus on growing jobs in this country that Todd Akin is a far more preferable candidate than liberal Senator Claire McCaskil. As with every Republican Senate candidate, we hope Todd Akin wins in November and we will continue to monitor this race closely in the days ahead.”

Election

Romney To Small Businesses: ‘Don’t Be Expecting A Huge Cut In Taxes’

Mitt Romney told voters in Westerville, Ohio on Wednesday not to expect a “huge cut in taxes” from his economic proposal, noting that he is “also gonna get rid of deductions and exemptions.” The message is at odds with the GOP nominee’s promises to cut taxes for the middle class and small businesses, while maintaining the current tax burden on the rich.

ROMNEY: Number 5, I’m going to champion small business. Small business, where jobs come from. And let me tell you how to do that. One, as Sen. Portman said, we’ve got to reform our tax system. Look, small businesses typically pay tax at the individual tax rate. And so, our individual income taxes are ones I want to reform, make them simpler. I want to bring the rates down. By the way, don’t be expecting a huge cut in taxes, because I’m also going to lower deductions and exemptions. But by bringing rates down, we’ll be able to let small businesses keep more of their money, so they can hire more people.

Watch it:

Romney has been pledging that he will cut taxes for all Americans by 20 percent, while also instituting tax reform that will not add to the nation’s deficit. But numerous analyses of the plan — including a recent study by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center — found that there are not enough loopholes in the tax code to finance the loss in revenue that would result from Romney’s massive cuts by only targeting deductions for the rich, meaning that middle class Americans will experience a net tax increase.

Economy

Romney Firm Invested In Chinese Company That Touted Low Wages, Low Tax Liability To Investors

A firm run by Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney invested in a Chinese company just a week after it touted the low wages it paid its employees, stringent working conditions, and the low tax liability it faced compared to American companies in a document to investors.

Romney has gotten tough on the Chinese government on the campaign trail, but in 1998, Brookside Inc., a subsidiary of Bain Capital, invested in Global-Tech Appliances days after it sent investors a document detailing the low wages it paid its workers and the low tax liability it faced, the Boston Globe reports:

It used “inexpensive labor,” Global-Tech Appliances wrote in a prospectus meant to attract investors on April 8, 1998. Its location in China meant “an overall effective tax rate that may be less than that of US corporations.” It said its current operations would not be subject to “material US taxes because it should not be considered to have significant income effectively connected with a trade or business in the US.” [...]

Nine days after the document was released – on April 17, 1998 — an affiliate of Bain Capital called Brookside Capital Partners Fund acquired about 6 percent of Global Tech, according to Securities and Exchange Commission documents that were first reported by Mother Jones magazine.

A leaked video from a Romney fundraiser showed the candidate giving an account of a trip to China to visit a factory in which Bain considered investing. Romney talked of the long hours worked by teenage girls who lived in dormitories on the premises and earned low wages. Spokespersons for both the Romney campaign and Bain Capital declined to comment for the Globe’s story.

Mother Jones reported in July that Global-Tech also depended heavily on the outsourcing of American jobs to China. Romney has blasted that practice on the campaign trail, but as the chief executive at Bain, he routinely oversaw the outsourcing of jobs to China and other low-wage countries. Investment documents released in August also detailed an investment into a company that is outsourcing jobs to China and forcing American workers to train their replacements.

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NEWS FLASH

7 In 10 Americans Think Obamacare Is Here To Stay | A majority of Americans believe the Affordable Care Act will be implemented while just 12 percent believe it will be repealed, according to a new Associated Press-GFK poll. 63 percent of respondents were also in favor of the state-run insurance exchanges that many Republican governors are refusing to set up in case Mitt Romney wins the election and repeals the health reform law. Just 15 states and DC plan to run their own exchanges. Though they believe the law will not be repealed, many people still hold misconceptions about what exactly Obamacare does, with just 14 percent correctly identifying the provisions and feeling confident about their answers.

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